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AUD/USD

  • #41,901
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:19pm Mar 14, 2012 8:19pm
Quoting rustyram
Long @ 1.0430

STOP@ 1.0390

EXIT - Either 1.63 or 1.69

It looks like bullish setup to me...

I will know in few hours if my entry is correct, as i am expecting the price to rally really really fast....

For AUD bulls i am watching these levels...

1- A Minor stop at 1.0630, pullback 80 to 100 pips
2 - A Major stop at 1.0680, Pullback 140 Pips
3 - Push up towards 1.0850 and bulls end here....

This is my vision......

My last long got stopped out....Stop at the wrong place.

Couple of Senior traders stepped in and reminded me of trading...
No offence rustyram, but why long when price action is so aggressivly short?
I hope it turns for you, but it all pionts towards the downside at the moment...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #41,902
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:25pm Mar 14, 2012 8:25pm
sometimes you just have to go with your gut instinct, good luck to you rusty, if u lose, we lose together
  • #41,903
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:37pm Mar 14, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting rustyram
Long @ 1.0430

STOP@ 1.0390

EXIT - Either 1.63 or 1.69

It looks like bullish setup to me...

I will know in few hours if my entry is correct, as i am expecting the price to rally really really fast....
Lol what?? All I see is sea of red candles. At best there'll be a dead cat bounce below 1.05. What kind of bullish set up is that?

Can you justify your reasons why the aud will "rally really really fast"?
  • #41,904
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:48pm Mar 14, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting fx-rocket
No offence rustyram, but why long when price action is so aggressivly short?
I hope it turns for you, but it all pionts towards the downside at the moment...
This is what i see my friend.... I was expecting this move , and had two wrong entry's. Looks like i should waited patiently, The time has come....
because this is a 4h entry, it should take 5-10 days to reach 1.0850 area.

I already have plans for the next 6 trades, entry,stop loss and exit....
But they all depend on this move uptowards 1.0850 area...
I am still learning.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post5466933
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #41,905
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:45pm Mar 14, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting diggo
Lol what?? All I see is sea of red candles. At best there'll be a dead cat bounce below 1.05. What kind of bullish set up is that?

Can you justify your reasons why the aud will "rally really really fast"?
i've been watching the same thing (and jumped the gun twice as well, probably in the exact same spots as rusty)
along with the chart, there is also a link to dailyfx that has a similar wave count.

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_ana...ttWave=AUD/USD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie1.gif Size: 20 KB
" If I can't be my own, I'd feel better dead" - Alice In Chains
  • #41,906
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:00pm Mar 14, 2012 10:00pm
Quoting jeeper
i've been watching the same thing (and jumped the gun twice as well, probably in the exact same spots as rusty)
along with the chart, there is also a link to dailyfx that has a similar wave count.

http://www.dailyfx.com/technical_ana...ttWave=AUD/USD
I dont think wave 4 is complete, i am looking for this rally to fade at daily highs at 1.0850 area..... I am expecting price to rally 200 pips really quick, then pullback, then up, then a big pullback, then rally to 1.0850 area, i am expecting price to reach 1.0850 area in the next 5-10 days or even more...
If this happens, that means there is still room for downside....price might comeback to this level 1.0420 area and go as low as 1.0390 area...
Then complete wave 4.....then start mother of all moves that we have been waiting for all these months, rally of 720 Pips ....


If this is wave 4, price should reach 1.0850 in 3 to 5 days....

Just my thought my friend....i could be wrong too....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #41,907
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:10pm Mar 14, 2012 10:10pm
Is this the end for the bears?
  • #41,908
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:22pm Mar 14, 2012 10:22pm
Quoting rustyram
I dont think wave 4 is complete, i am looking for this rally to fade at daily highs at 1.0850 area..... I am expecting price to rally 200 pips really quick, then pullback, then up, then a big pullback, then rally to 1.0850 area, i am expecting price to reach 1.0850 area in the next 5-10 days or even more...
If this happens, that means there is still room for downside....price might comeback to this level 1.0420 area and go as low as 1.0390 area...
Then complete wave 4.....then start mother of all moves that we have been waiting for all these months,...
I don't disagree other than there is not MUCH more room for downside. Anything below 3800 nullifies this count. (But you know that)
If you are right, I will pick up a better entry.
If wave 4 is complete, then I've got a good entry.
If it hits 3800, then to hell with this bitch.
" If I can't be my own, I'd feel better dead" - Alice In Chains
  • #41,909
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:31pm Mar 14, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting jeeper
I don't disagree other than there is not MUCH more room for downside. Anything below 3800 nullifies this count. (But you know that)
If you are right, I will pick up a better entry.
If wave 4 is complete, then I've got a good entry.
If it hits 3800, then to hell with this bitch.
Safe to say we will hit 1.0400? Which session? You guys analysis seems sound to me.
  • #41,910
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:34pm Mar 14, 2012 10:34pm
Quoting NetBurl
Safe to say we will hit 1.0400? Which session? You guys analysis seems sound to me.
I didn't say that. I'm bullish at this point. (but ask again tomorrow)
" If I can't be my own, I'd feel better dead" - Alice In Chains
  • #41,911
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:36pm Mar 14, 2012 10:36pm
has this ever happened before? i mean the fundamentals coming out of aussie are negative and fundamentals out of usa are positive yet the aud goes up? or is it like, the aud has so much bulls that all the bears are outnumbered kind of thing???
  • #41,912
  • Edited 10:54pm Mar 14, 2012 10:41pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting jeeper
I don't disagree other than there is not MUCH more room for downside. Anything below 3800 nullifies this count. (But you know that)
If you are right, I will pick up a better entry.
If wave 4 is complete, then I've got a good entry.
If it hits 3800, then to hell with this bitch.
You are correct my friend, lets hope this is not wave 4, because this way we can make a lot of money.....just like the big guys...and one day become the big guy..

Also the big wave 5, i am thinking should happen only in april maybe towards the month end, as these big guys big bankers, big hedge fund manager who have ton of money reach their price target just in time before May(complete wave 5)....they start their Summer vacation.......

So i am expecting price to reach 1.1120 before these big guys leave us alone, then we(little guys) have all summer to play with daily pullback ABC, slow and painfull movements where there is no clear direction and we end up losing most of times, then by the end of the summer, we have finally brought the price to this exact place...1.0370 - 1.0470 area....these big guys will be comeback from vacation fresh and take the big positions and big money starts to flow in....and begin the new uptrend towards 1.2xxx....

I want to think like these big guys....only then we can make big money.

There are really good traders here, once we share knowledge...i guess we can learn from each other....

Good luck my friend....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #41,913
  • Mar 15, 2012 12:34am Mar 15, 2012 12:34am

These guys (ANZ) are quite forward thinking - can look over the otherside of the hill . Well balanced arguments for a move either way , both fundamental & technical .

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ANZ FX Research.pdf   116 KB | 866 downloads
  • #41,914
  • Mar 15, 2012 1:24am Mar 15, 2012 1:24am
Quoting Balmain Boy

These guys (ANZ) are quite forward thinking - can look over the otherside of the hill . Well balanced arguments for a move either way , both fundamental & technical .

Attachment
Good lookin out! Need this.
  • #41,915
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:10am Mar 15, 2012 2:10am
40 pipies in under 10mins , thank you AUD
  • #41,916
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:23am Mar 15, 2012 2:23am
Quoting rustyram
This is what i see my friend.... I was expecting this move , and had two wrong entry's. Looks like i should waited patiently, The time has come....
because this is a 4h entry, it should take 5-10 days to reach 1.0850 area.

I already have plans for the next 6 trades, entry,stop loss and exit....
But they all depend on this move uptowards 1.0850 area...
I am still learning.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...33#post5466933
H4 shows some what of a falling wedge which could indicate bullish reversal but I wouldn't count on it being a valid 1 until 1.0520 is broken.

Your entry was good but I doubt 1.0850 will be seen before your stop loss based on daily PA.
  • #41,917
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:35am Mar 15, 2012 2:35am
in my view base on daily if price touch 1.0620-90 and stop its good R:R to sell again with tight sl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #41,918
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:42am Mar 15, 2012 2:42am
Quoting aqeelaputra
in my view base on daily if price touch 1.0620-90 and stop its good R:R to sell again with tight sl
Attachment
4h 1.0536 the key
  • #41,919
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:58am Mar 15, 2012 2:58am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Long at 436

Come bears, catch me if u can!
sold at 500
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #41,920
  • Mar 15, 2012 3:01am Mar 15, 2012 3:01am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Not so crystal clear...

Ending diagonal?:

It has touched exactly the upper blue line at 503, and dropped from there...

See u at 400 (if 503 taken, I'm wrong)
Use me as a contrarian indicator
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