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  • #1,161
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:51am Mar 13, 2012 4:51am
Quoting AvanishDemo
Yesterday's daily closing was a concern but continued the trade..
i hve just reduced my risk,SL @ 0.9220(Initial SL :0.9195)
my target 0.93.
will check the chart later after 3-4 hours.

PS:beauty of co-relation of Ecad,CadChf
We did get a small reaction at the retrace to the top of the S/R zone before price fell through - the daily close although doesn't look good compared to the upper zone marked it did close above the lower level marked despite trying to break below intraday.

Yes, that was some nice co-correlation, not overly keen on taking trades based on TL's myself - mostly due to the fact TL's are more subjective than horizontal S/R's.
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  • #1,162
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:31am Mar 13, 2012 6:31am
lovejoy80 good job on the usdchf and i think this thread is the best on ff you know price action i have found the thread to stick with thank you mate
  • #1,163
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:33am Mar 13, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Tiwa
lovejoy80 good job on the usdchf and i think this thread is the best on ff you know price action i have found the thread to stick with thank you mate
By far the best, the information here is free gold.
  • #1,164
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:57pm Mar 13, 2012 3:57pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Another setup that was hit during Asia - price went straight to the FLR.
Hey LoveJoy

Great call on USDCHF. What can I say, to the pip!

Woud you mind explaining your story and reasoning behind it? I have attached x2 charts:

1) ORIGINAL call at 0.91450 post event.
2) EDITED CHART. FTB the way I like to trade it.

To me, the level makes total sense only I would have passed on the execution given that price already retested that level on two occasions.

Thanks in advance
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  • #1,165
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:09pm Mar 13, 2012 5:09pm
Something of interest.

- Daily BUOB breakout of key D1 H4 levels at 1.4478 & 1.4432.
- Break of upper trendline
- Potential FTB entry on 1.4432?

Comments very welcome
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  • #1,166
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:54pm Mar 13, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting 5.25
Hey LoveJoy

Great call on USDCHF. What can I say, to the pip!

Woud you mind explaining your story and reasoning behind it? I have attached x2 charts:

1) ORIGINAL call at 0.91450 post event.
2) EDITED CHART. FTB the way I like to trade it.

To me, the level makes total sense only I would have passed on the execution given that price already retested that level on two occasions.

Thanks in advance

I'd agree that your chart is certainly a technically superior setup. If we have a period of consolidation prior to the breakout, arc and retest then it is a more attractive setup.

The important aspect of the setup as per my chart is that the last breakout was long i.e. price broke out to the upside and this is the first arc like retest of this daily S/R following that breakout.

Now there does become a point where a S/R becomes washed out - being tested as support and resistance in quick succession or flipping between the two would make me re-evaluate the setup.

But the setup, although not 'technically perfect' like your chart is, is still a good tradable setup by the way I trade FTB's.

It's certainly a clear example of what can be achieved from a risk/reward perspective if you have efficient trade management.
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  • #1,167
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:01pm Mar 13, 2012 6:01pm
Quoting 5.25
Something of interest.

- Daily BUOB breakout of key D1 H4 levels at 1.4478 & 1.4432.
- Break of upper trendline
- Potential FTB entry on 1.4432?

Comments very welcome
Haha...I had to laugh when I saw these charts, we had a discussion about a setup on GCHF today in the Trading Room ... out of every Forex pair I've ever traded this is one that I just seem to lose more trades on than I win and I just don't look at it anymore cos I just don't like it as a pair.

Just by going on your charts I'd say this setup looks very nice. I would consider two setups here:

1. The immediate retest of the daily BUOB - before the bar goes to an obvious FLR I'd take a long at the level you marked - i.e. no need for an arc like pattern.

2. the arc like FTB you described.
  • #1,168
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:04pm Mar 13, 2012 6:04pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Slow day but 1 winning trade and one trade in profit (long NCAD based on technical confluence, half position closed rest still in play) so can't complain.

Was looking to short the Bund @ 139.12, but price didn't come high enough before falling away so order cancelled.
Talking about examples where price has gone parabolic, look where price hit on the Bund today.

We also had a good technical confluence setup on GU today, I had to pop out but I know others that took it.
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  • #1,169
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:08pm Mar 13, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting 5.25
Hey LoveJoy

Great call on USDCHF. What can I say, to the pip!

Woud you mind explaining your story and reasoning behind it? I have attached x2 charts:

1) ORIGINAL call at 0.91450 post event.
2) EDITED CHART. FTB the way I like to trade it.

To me, the level makes total sense only I would have passed on the execution given that price already retested that level on two occasions.

Thanks in advance
This is another example of a near technically perfect FTB setup - as you can see price didn't quite hit our area as strong reported bids at the 82 level took price up further, but the structure of this level, the recent consolidation tests as resistance (and the fact this is a HTF S/R of course) make this a very good area for an FTB setup.
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  • #1,170
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:14pm Mar 13, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting Tiwa
lovejoy80 good job on the usdchf and i think this thread is the best on ff you know price action i have found the thread to stick with thank you mate

Thanks Tiwa.

Guys / Gals maybe you should keep the good comments to yourselves as whenever you posts comments like that, others vote down my thread ... the wonders of politics within the commercial section of FF
  • #1,171
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:21pm Mar 13, 2012 6:21pm
Last post as it's getting late (1.15am here), many people get taught not to go against strong momentum...

Now I'm not saying price is going to reverse this whole down move - clearly we don't expect miracles here, but despite this strong down move price still had a material bounce at this level - why, because of the orderflow dynamics at this level which in turn causes the price action you can see in terms of the reaction that has occurred.
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  • #1,172
  • Mar 14, 2012 1:39am Mar 14, 2012 1:39am
Quoting lovejoy80
Haha...I had to laugh when I saw these charts, we had a discussion about a setup on GCHF today in the Trading Room ... out of every Forex pair I've ever traded this is one that I just seem to lose more trades on than I win and I just don't look at it anymore cos I just don't like it as a pair.

Just by going on your charts I'd say this setup looks very nice. I would consider two setups here:

1. The immediate retest of the daily BUOB - before the bar goes to an obvious FLR I'd take a long at the level you marked - i.e. no need for an arc like...
Took a closer look at this one this morning, in fact the main setup I would have preferred is the shallow retrace to the broken daily level @ 1.4487 rather than the deep retracement. The size of that bar does suggest any retracement should be shallow in any case thus this level would be a great level to be entering long given the breakout and the daily bias from the BUOB.
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  • #1,173
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:13am Mar 14, 2012 3:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
Last post as it's getting late (1.15am here), many people get taught not to go against strong momentum...

Now I'm not saying price is going to reverse this whole down move - clearly we don't expect miracles here, but despite this strong down move price still had a material bounce at this level - why, because of the orderflow dynamics at this level which in turn causes the price action you can see in terms of the reaction that has occurred.
This area still holding and price hit an obvious initial target.
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  • #1,174
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:16am Mar 14, 2012 3:16am
A trade that triggered this morning.
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  • #1,175
  • Edited 8:30am Mar 14, 2012 3:50am | Edited 8:30am
Bought ECHF @ 1.21,i believe this is some serious change in the trend,plan is to take profits @ respective PPZ and add more positions once it CA major PPZs

was watching this pair closely since 12hrs,price shooting up so hard isn't a joke right.
  • #1,176
  • Mar 14, 2012 3:57am Mar 14, 2012 3:57am
Quoting AvanishDemo
Bought ECHF @ 1.21,i believe this is some serious change in the trend,plan is to take profits @ respective PPZ and add more positions once it CA major PPZs

was watching this pair closely since 12hrs,price shooting up so hard isn't a joke right.
looks like SNB is following the BOJ way.
i might be wrong but this is how i intrepret the charts atleast.
I'm also long ECHF but more because we have the SNB Monetary Policy Assessment tomorrow. Price is very likely rising in 'hope' that the SNB will raise the peg to 1.25. If they don't mention anything supportive it will likely fall back down or do a whole load of nothing like it was doing prior to yesterdays move.

The same pattern has happened in the past just before the monthly statement. I got in late because I was expecting the move to start today so planned to go long last night but it started moving before I'd noticed to so paid 20 pips too much (in at 1.2070's).

Price has just hit an important S/R level.
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  • #1,177
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:01am Mar 14, 2012 4:01am
Quoting lovejoy80
Ok, not going to go into a lot of details about fundamentals on here, but I do currently have a mild bearish sentiment on the AUD. It was pretty clear AU was going to retrace last week given the failed breakout of the bull flag and given the recent economic data out of AUS and China it certainly seems to me that fundamentally there is the possibility of a shift in sentiment towards the AUD - it's only a possibility IMO at the moment and sentiment doesn't shift overnight.

Whilst talking about fundamentals I also have a mild bullish sentiment towards...
Same pair and another example example of price pressure leading to an obvious breakout.
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  • #1,178
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:53am Mar 14, 2012 4:53am
lovejoy80 do you trade on weekly i love longer time frame now thou i still trade shorter time frame depending anyway here is the trade i took using weekly timeframe on EURJPY any comment is welcome
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rememberatient-greed=success
  • #1,179
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:13am Mar 14, 2012 5:13am
Quoting lovejoy80
A trade that triggered this morning.
Update - all out on one account, on another I have SL above today's bar high (and have banked some profit at same area)
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  • #1,180
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:17am Mar 14, 2012 5:17am
Quoting Tiwa
lovejoy80 do you trade on weekly i love longer time frame now thou i still trade shorter time frame depending anyway here is the trade i took using weekly timeframe on EURJPY any comment is welcomeAttachment

rememberatient-greed=success
I use weekly charts as part of my overall analysis, but I don't tend to trade off of them, daily is normally highest TF I'll go. Reason being that because I'm a full time trader I can often find better entries with lower risk in terms of SL size on the LTF's which of course helps to maximise my reward. I'm also more of a short term trade than a longer term one, so it suits me more to trade this way.
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