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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,621
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:28am Mar 13, 2012 2:28am
Quoting bandung
yes that include both above and below..
Great! I'm good to go!
Thanx for the help!
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,622
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:25am Mar 13, 2012 6:25am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega


could you elaborate more......I dont get, "to get rid of weak sellers" could you provide a reference............



"However, if the rally is truly caused by short covering
and not new buying interest, the market will often resume its prior
[u]course...
by getting rid of weak sellers i was referring a the theory behind scr, as it's old business mostly instead of fresh buyers...

and by skyrocket i meant the idea behind the situation when market auctions behind a long term reference point like it did yesterday with last week VAL and don't find anything. so that was day time frame and the fact it didn't continue usually it means it woke up the interest of short time frame which found the price attractive and bought. but it should not be involved time frames higher then that because if it were the market should have skyrocket, which it didn't. the market moved on lower vol and low conviction.
what i didn't get it's i was expected a down continuation for monday and that made me to lose a bit the track and now i just woke up and try to see what can i do to make some money today as entire down move could be consumed already without my participation.

sometimes when i'm tired or i don't have time to find the proper words, it's hard for me to express my ideas in a foreign language and i get lost in my thoughts...
  • #4,623
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:57am Mar 13, 2012 6:57am
HI, I can't download the volume strip indicator, what happen?


Cordially

Aprendiz
  • #4,624
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:50am Mar 13, 2012 7:50am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
i look forward to get short if i get confirmation near by the high of the late spike from london. we have fomc statement in few hours...
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  • #4,625
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:16am Mar 13, 2012 9:16am
Quoting s7c
by getting rid of weak sellers i was referring a the theory behind scr, as it's old business mostly instead of fresh buyers...

and by skyrocket i meant the idea behind the situation when market auctions behind a long term reference point like it did yesterday with last week VAL and don't find anything. so that was day time frame and the fact it didn't continue usually it means it woke up the interest of short time frame which found the price attractive and bought. but it should not be involved time frames higher then that because if it were the...
thanks for the clarification...... I wasnt really sure if you were talking about a "short coveringing rally" or a "short squeeze". I thought you were describing a "short covering rally" but expecting short squeeze results or visa verse, I dont function well either, when Im tired
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,626
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:58pm Mar 13, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting qtrader
That is not what Bandung indi is doing. The green is a High Volume area defined by being higher than the 3 above or below. The Low Volume is in Yellow lower than the 3 above or below. These are advanced concepts and if your new then go do some research.
I’m fully aware my drawn example isn’t what bandung indi is doing……..I was suggesting that ‘s what I thought it should do to isolate buy tics from sell tics, from my research & interpretation from the only available resource known to me, it should have been self explanatory that as far as “my need to do research” goes, I had already been there, and done that…………you have obviously done a lot more research and have a greater insight into these new “advanced concepts” than I , could you please be kind enough to share exactly which vol numbers on Bandung indicator are the new buy tics, and which are the new sell tics? This still eludes me………you’re obviously well versed with steidlemayer’s work, where is steidlemayer's distinction between the “new buy tics” from the “new sell tics”, on Bandungs indi? Can you shed some light on which vol numbers are which? or better yet possibly point them out? You have obviously done your research. As a “newbie” to these “advance new concepts” I’d love to learn a thing or two from you, as I’m always eager to learn something new………….
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,627
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:46pm Mar 13, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting qtrader
That is not what Bandung indi is doing. The green is a High Volume area defined by being higher than the 3 above or below. The Low Volume is in Yellow lower than the 3 above or below. These are advanced concepts and if your new then go do some research.
"Advanced concepts"?

  • #4,628
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:53pm Mar 13, 2012 5:53pm
Quoting Bilstein
"Advanced concepts"?

Bil.. dukascopy improving their free tick historical data ..

we can get volume on bid and ask..

check this out
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...ed/historical/
...
  • #4,629
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:10pm Mar 13, 2012 7:10pm
Quoting bandung
Bil.. dukascopy improving their free tick historical data ..

we can get volume on bid and ask..

check this out
http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...ed/historical/
That's pretty cool. What are the volume amounts measured in? Individual ticks? Millions, thousands, etc?

Better yet... How can we utilize it?
  • #4,630
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:15pm Mar 13, 2012 7:15pm
millions. be aware that their volume is regional biased if comparing volumes between different crosses. on single ones it should not be an issue since the percentage / difference between bid/ask should equal approx. global volume but lags.
  • #4,631
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:33pm Mar 13, 2012 7:33pm
with advanced concepts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #4,632
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:37pm Mar 13, 2012 7:37pm
I need moar advance concepts for consumption of happy knowledge.

By the way, what Bandung is doing is advanced, this comment:

Quote
That is not what Bandung indi is doing. The green is a High Volume area defined by being higher than the 3 above or below. The Low Volume is in Yellow lower than the 3 above or below. These are advanced concepts and if your new then go do some research.

Specifically referring to the color signals of the indicator is not an advanced concept, it's a basic one. The comment just seems malicious. I've noticed a lot of "flame" heading towards Mzvega. Just doesn't seem right to slither in here and trash the veterans of the thread.

Just my opinion.
  • #4,633
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:01pm Mar 13, 2012 9:01pm
Quoting qtrader
That is not what Bandung indi is doing. The green is a High Volume area defined by being higher than the 3 above or below. The Low Volume is in Yellow lower than the 3 above or below. These are advanced concepts and if your new then go do some research.
I for one would really like to know what advanced concept you are refering to? Pls point the way.

In addition, could u now show us already your result thus far of your strategy todate, i am curious. really.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...96#post4549596

U still have not reply to frankkn, yet!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post4549857
  • #4,634
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:57pm Mar 13, 2012 9:57pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
we are at monthly val and currently below this month value/we are below last week value(mzvega kind of holiday ) and with WIB established it would be just lovely to see a failed auction just below. this will place us just to test last week excess where it would be a nice place to get long in the context...
another option is to get a neutral day first but not a strong down move, at least that's my view. other ideas?

hopefully i will get on board with this, one of my biggest problems is waiting too long for perfect entry and miss the move...adding some time frustration trades after.
  • #4,635
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:59pm Mar 13, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting unknown4x
millions. be aware that their volume is regional biased if comparing volumes between different crosses. on single ones it should not be an issue since the percentage / difference between bid/ask should equal approx. global volume but lags.
thanks buddy..
if you dont mind, do you use it for backtesting or volume profiling?
...
  • #4,636
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:19am Mar 14, 2012 4:19am
Quoting bandung
thanks buddy..
if you dont mind, do you use it for backtesting or volume profiling?
you are welcome. nowadays for neither one. i used to aggregate volumes from 3 major hubs to offset the local bias and then do a kind of buy/sell tick counting to see when buy/sell bias flips over. simple but actually more accurate then one might think.
  • #4,637
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:01am Mar 14, 2012 9:01am
Quoting s7c
we are at monthly val and currently below this month value/we are below last week value(mzvega kind of holiday ) and with WIB established it would be just lovely to see a failed auction just below. this will place us just to test last week excess where it would be a nice place to get long in the context...
another option is to get a neutral day first but not a strong down move, at least that's my view. other ideas?

hopefully i will get on board with this, one of my biggest problems is waiting too long for perfect entry and miss the move...adding...

I was thinking the same this morning, but then looked at the monthly profiles (left chart). Here's my take. This week's IB was essentially a back test of the Feb-Mar control, and price now exploring below that VA. The merge also looks like a LLB, which would make sense as the longs from early in the year (1.26 level) are being closed. However, to be a proper LLB, we would need OTF up, but instead we are seing OTF down from the control. Bias is therefore still short IMO. With that in mind, I'm looking for a short entry around 1.3070 monthly VAL). We may have seen that today in NY A period, hoping for another shot at it.


Some charts for the thread...for a change...
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,638
  • Edited 10:38am Mar 14, 2012 10:35am | Edited 10:38am
Quoting tgwhbb
Bias is therefore still short IMO. With that in mind, I'm looking for a short entry around 1.3070 monthly VAL). We may have seen that today in NY A period, hoping for another shot at it.


Some charts for the thread...for a change...
took a short in G period pullback, which is london/tokyo VAL, and also today's HVN based on volume strips
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,639
  • Mar 14, 2012 4:33pm Mar 14, 2012 4:33pm
Quoting tgwhbb
I was thinking the same this morning, but then looked at the monthly profiles (left chart). Here's my take. This week's IB was essentially a back test of the Feb-Mar control, and price now exploring below that VA. The merge also looks like a LLB, which would make sense as the longs from early in the year (1.26 level) are being closed. However, to be a proper LLB, we would need OTF up, but instead we are seing OTF down from the control. Bias is therefore still short IMO. With that in mind, I'm looking for a short entry around 1.3070 monthly VAL)....
your merge looks like a b shaped profile, with that in mind, check list first, relative to the monthly tf. You have merged last month & current mn, so our reference begins at last month’s open @1.3075 check#1 @ the time of the open of last month, had we been in an extended up trend? You could say yes as we rallied in jan to feb., #check 2 did we open on the highs? At that point in time yes, but relative to the merged profile NO, its closer to the bottom of the range, and last but not least, did we have swift rapid movement down? No, in fact it open and auctioned higher and exceeded the MN open. That should exclude it from being a LLB, as it should meet all three criteria. Imo an llb needs to open, drive lower, then auction, then otf up. The beginning of your merge reference feb1. Price opened and pretty much auctioned with slight rotation higher, no swift rapid move down, but when you step back and look pa from feb1–current we pretty much have just been trading a range. Even if we do get a sign of otf up, imo I don’t think the rising prices will have anything to do with the down move being cause by a liquidation of old long positions at the open of the first profile in that merge. Also the open of that merged profile is closer to the bottom of the range……… that was a quick visual way of eliminating it as an LLB without having to put in as much effort as it took me to explain it….
I also think that it can be very confusing and difficult to distinguish between a “short covering rally” and “Short squeeze” & the difference between “long liquidation break” and “long squeeze” , I think understanding “how” the prices developed, not the shape of the profile picture, that give you to keys to determining the differences
I think there is a major fundamental difference, short covering rally is a factor of being “too short”, “too much supply” & profit taking, in order to reenter and continue the resumption of the downtrend, as where “Short squeeze” is traders being “forced” out of their positions, because there is a “lack of supply”
The same for the Long liquidation break, is a factor of being “too long” & profit taking, in order to reenter and continue the resumption of the uptrend, as where “Long squeeze” is traders being “forced” to liquidate positions, caused by a sudden drop in price that incites further selling. However long squeezes are rare because a drop in price without any fundamental basis for the drop, will soon be seen as a "value" play for value traders to step in and buy
Just a few thoughts……..
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,640
  • Edited 9:41pm Mar 14, 2012 8:49pm | Edited 9:41pm
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting tgwhbb
I was thinking the same this morning, but then looked at the monthly profiles (left chart). Here's my take. This week's IB was essentially a back test of the Feb-Mar control, and price now exploring below that VA. The merge also looks like a LLB, which would make sense as the longs from early in the year (1.26 level) are being closed. However, to be a proper LLB, we would need OTF up, but instead we are seing OTF down from the control. Bias is therefore still short IMO. With that in mind, I'm looking for a short entry around 1.3070 monthly VAL)....
i had a buy limit in london at 1.3040 but forgot to set take partial profit at first resistance which was 24h open and in pit session i just stared at the screen without being able to understand the movie, if bernanke was the criminal or not and culminating with a loss...
and now i have again the same problem: the difference between to much time and good time of the auctions in one area, this referring to WIB extension and todays HVA made in pit session just below tokyo's low.
directional performance from what i get see this market as weak, but i'm not sure my volume on daily is reliable. intraday we have very low vol but this due to change of contracts i guess. sorry i'm talking about /6e futures.

edit: forgot to say almost filled entirely last moth tail after the test of VAH from 2 month ago. so at the moment bigger chances this strong demand will fail
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