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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #24,161
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:54am Mar 13, 2012 6:54am
Quoting FXMindset
beautiful
You probably like those linear regression channels
  • #24,162
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:55am Mar 13, 2012 6:55am
Quoting GoldMan.
Very nice @ 1.3104 can bring us some bigger difficulty, if that's cleary exceeded then 1.3047 next. I more look @ them as interim zones.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1331637862
Thanks.
Yes that area may present a block, but retail sales and NY open may push it either way.
  • #24,163
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:55am Mar 13, 2012 6:55am
European morning wrap: Yen weakness a feature of morning trade

Written by Gerry Davies
March 13, 2012 at 11:44 GMT

Second financing/reform programme can put Greek debt on sustainable path – Updated EU/IMF Greek debt sustainability analysis

ECB’s Weidman: Not the task of monetary policy to keep struggling banks alive artificially, or ensure states remain solvent

More Weidman

Luxembourg FinMin Frieden: Sees ‘problem’ for Spain deficit to be below 3% in 2013 – Bloomberg

German ZEW survey economic sentiment for March 22.3, much better than median forecast of 10

ZEW economist: Investors expect no change to short-term interest rates in next 6 months due to debt crisis

EU’s Van Rompuy: Sees ‘remaining vulnerabilites’ in crisis

EU’s Barroso: Situation remains fragile in Europe

BOJ Gov Shirakawa: BOJ will continue to do utmost to beat deflation
Moody’s downgrades Cyprus’s bond rating to Ba1/NP, negative outlook. Says increased risk Cypriot govt will have to provide support to local banks exposed to Greek debt

French February EU harmonised CPI +0.5% m/m, +2.5% y/y, as expected
French January current account -4.2 bln vs revised -2.8 bln in December
UK January global goods trade balance -£7.532 bln, slightly better than Reuter’s median forecast of -£7.88 bln

Yen weakness has been a marked feature of morning trade, USD/JPY up at 82.65 from early 82.05, having been as high as 82.79. EUR/JPY is up marginally at 108.40 from early 108.00, and this despite a fairly sharp sell-off in EUR/USD.

Shirakawa’s comments (see above) lent early support, suggesting more easing coming down the pike. Large Japanese banks notable buyers of the spot, amid talk of M&A flows going through.

ACB and Japanese exporter selling seen 82.70+ helping slow the rally for now. Talk of barrier interest up at 83.00.

EUR/USD down at 1.3115 from early 1.3160. Rumour overnight in Asia had the IMF needing to buy euros today, apparently related to Greek bailout payment. This had everyone on the look-out for the BIS and they duly turned up on the bid in the 1.3155/60 area. We saw a fractional bounce (not even 10 pips) before we headed lower. Somewhat cautious comments from Van Rompuy and Barroso (see above) soon after the BIS sighting probably didn’t help matters.

Talk of buy orders now clustered 1.3100/10, sell stops through 1.3100.

Cable very marginally firmer at 1.5660 from early 1.5645. Talk of Middle Eastern sovereign buying (said to be not overly large) noted this morning. EUR/GBP down at .8373 from early .8410.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,164
  • Mar 13, 2012 6:58am Mar 13, 2012 6:58am
Today’s orderboard

Written by Joe Brown
March 13, 2012 at 11:30 GMT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3100/10, stops immediately below

GBP/USD: Bids 1.5635/40, tech support 1.5615/20. Offers 1.5675/80 (50 DMA 1.5682) 1.5695/00 (1.5701- 100DMA) and 1.5720/25

EUR/GBP: Strong offers 0.8420/25, tech res 0.8433 (100 DMA). Bids 0.8370/75, 0.8350/55 (0.8349- 55 DMA)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0510/15, ahead of tech trendline support at 1.0475. Below here are barriers at 1.0450, 1.0425 and 1.0400 with the 200/100 day MA ‘s coming in at 1.0405/1.0372. Option related offers 1.0560/65 stops up through 1.0580. Option expiries from 1.0500 up to 1.0560

USD/JPY: Exporter and ACB offers at 82.75/80 and 82.90/00 ahead of barrier at 83.00. Buy stops set for a break of the level. Bids 82.10/15 , sell stops down through 81.90

EUR/JPY: Strong offers 108.60/70. Bids 108.30/35 and 107.90/95

EUR/CHF: Offers 1.2060/65, 1.2080/00. Bids 1.2040/50 and 1.2000/10

GOLD: Support 1692 and 1680.70 (200 DMA). Resistance 1717 and 1726

USD/CAD: Support 0/9890/95,0.9870/75 and 0.9835/40. Offers 0.9930/35 and 0.9945/50
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,165
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:04am Mar 13, 2012 7:04am
Draghi: Overall we see continued signs of stabilisation of euro zone economy

Countries should use phase of financial stabilisation to make further progress on economic reform

Banks should use benign environment to strengthen balance sheets by retaining earnings, cutting dividends and bonuses


So Draghi is saying that this period of stabilization (or at least a perceived one anyway) is just a phase. Translation: There's a storm brewing

Then he says that banks should use this "benign" environment to strengthen their balance sheets... Translation: because there's a storm brewing.




Growth will be supported by low short-term interest rates and ECB measures to foster financial sector

Risk of inflation is not materialising at the present time, output gap is wide in euro zone

Committed to maintaining Trichet’s strong record on price stability

EUR/USD hits new session low of 1.3105. Talk of real money selling in recent trade.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,166
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:08am Mar 13, 2012 7:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
Hey Gofer. Nice trigger. Let's see if we break 3080 today. I'm hoping it's today. If not, there's always tomorrow.
Thanks.
How are you Brother? I been busy lately, getting the garden ready......it's my stress reliever. My peppers are hot, the strawberries sweet and the tomatoes the bomb. I grow about 30-40 different things every year from beets to zucchini and pickle can and freeze. It helps keep commodity prices down!

Sure wish I hadn't taken all my profits from the 1.3420 area already, seems you have shown some patience to allow your trades to steep, but hey there is always another opportunity around the corner! I suffer from premature extraction!
  • #24,167
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:09am Mar 13, 2012 7:09am
Quoting Gofer Pips
Technical entry on 50% fib retrace of last swing high 1.3288.
Now I

Technicals do serve well in low volatility trading times if set ups are supported by funnymentals.

Entry- Asian session at 2:14 GMT 10:14 EDT. As I

What do I know......I'm just a hack!
Quoting GoldMan.
Very nice @ 1.3104 can bring us some bigger difficulty, if that's cleary exceeded then 1.3047 next. I more look @ them as interim zones.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1331637862

Stop: BE+5
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Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,168
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:13am Mar 13, 2012 7:13am
Quoting Harpe Eagle

Stop: BE+5
Nice move Harpe. If I could give you a 2nd voucher, you would have it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,169
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:14am Mar 13, 2012 7:14am
Quoting Harpe Eagle

Stop: BE+5
You can see a beauty of a perfect head and shoulder formation on your chart with weekly pivot as the top of the shoulders.

I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #24,170
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:16am Mar 13, 2012 7:16am
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  • #24,171
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:16am Mar 13, 2012 7:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
Nice move Harpe. If I could give you a 2nd voucher, you would have it.
Good you told that, haven't V one of my favorite people here, he got it now.
  • #24,172
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:20am Mar 13, 2012 7:20am
Quoting GoldMan.
Good you told that, haven't V one of my favorite people here, he got it now.
Excellent. He deserves it and more. He's only been trading about 6 months
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,173
  • Edited 7:25am Mar 13, 2012 7:24am | Edited 7:25am
Gotta get that close!
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  • #24,174
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:27am Mar 13, 2012 7:27am
I have ,3082 as next level of support. I dont think it breaks now, as I think people are afraid of FOMC, but if it does, I have next stop at ,299. But hey, unemployment in US seems "improving" lately so they may not announce new round of QE today. So it may be fine to sell. Nevertheless, I am waiting for evening.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #24,175
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:31am Mar 13, 2012 7:31am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have ,3082 as next level of support. I dont think it breaks now, as I think people are afraid of FOMC, but if it does, I have next stop at ,299. But hey, unemployment in US seems "improving" lately so they may not announce new round of QE today. So it may be fine to sell. Nevertheless, I am waiting for evening.

T
Bernanke already mentioned yesterday that the Fed does not plan on implementing any form of sterilized bond purchases at the moment.
That tells me that if there is any plan, it will probably not be mentioned until the April meeting.

I will look for the link to the news item and post it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,176
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:37am Mar 13, 2012 7:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I have ,3082 as next level of support. I dont think it breaks now, as I think people are afraid of FOMC, but if it does, I have next stop at ,299. But hey, unemployment in US seems "improving" lately so they may not announce new round of QE today. So it may be fine to sell. Nevertheless, I am waiting for evening.

T
Sorry I got the information wrong. It wasn't Bernanke. It was a reporter at FT. Here's the article.

Sterilisation not the focus at the FOMC


I have a piece in today’s paper previewing what promises to be a quiet Federal Open Market Committee meeting this month.
In particular, talk that the FOMC is now studying a programme of “sterilised” quantitative easing is, in my view, incorrect. I think the current FOMC discussion looks more like this:

The Fed’s main focus at the moment is on trying to parse the economic outlook. In particular, they are waiting for incomes and consumption data to either confirm or refute the apparent strength of the labour market. This weighs against action of any sort for the time being.

Their median forecast path is already on a knife edge: it comes close to delivering on-target inflation of 2 per cent in 2014. The Fed’s bias is towards further easing but the question is the balance of risks. A particular issue is how far you can exclude the upside inflation risk of a rapid acceleration in growth. It is much easier to act on downside risks to growth – such as the rise in oil prices – if you do not think the economy has a lot of momentum.

All remaining easing options have large costs and risks. If the Fed deploys them it is likely to do so in force; it will not want to muck around in order to tweak or massage the economy’s path if it thinks things are on track.

There is little room to play around further with the composition of the balance sheet. Operation Twist was designed to use up the Fed’s capacity to shift short-term into long-term assets and I detect no signs that Fed officials think there is more that can be done along these lines. The idea that it might use an “Operation Twist 2″ after June reminds me of last year’s discussion about tapering off QE2: it could make sense if the Fed wants to keep bond markets focused on easing, not exit, but it has not played that game in the past.

The substantive option remains QE3 into mortgage-backed securities. St Louis Fed president James Bullard’s suggestion, that you can announce a limited amount of purchases and adjust the total at each FOMC meeting, has gained a little ground but remains a minority view. That means QE3 probably has a large minimum, maybe $300bn or $400bn. This further enforces the need for clarity on the balance of risks if the Fed is to pull the trigger.

Sterilisation has some attractions, explored in endless research notes in recent days. But, based on my reporting, I just don’t think the Fed is contemplating, or working on it, right now.

To be clear, that could change, and the Fed has looked at the option of sterilisation in the past. But going down this route would mean a concession that there are real inflationary risks attached to today’s excess bank reserves and that it is worth paying a price to avoid them. That would contradict an awful lot of past Fed statements and thinking.

All the speculation seems overblown to me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #24,177
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:43am Mar 13, 2012 7:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Nice move Harpe. If I could give you a 2nd voucher, you would have it.
Quoting GoldMan.
Good you told that, haven't V one of my favorite people here, he got it now.
Thanks a lot Pals ...... I have learn these TL by looking your 'Goldman' and FXM charts so thats why I always ask you to post your charts so that I can learn more...
The best day for me in FF was when you 'PT' vouched for me because I take you as my mentor and I feel proud to have you as my mentor
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #24,178
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:00am Mar 13, 2012 8:00am
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  • #24,179
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:06am Mar 13, 2012 8:06am
Quoting Gofer Pips
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFkLATIc2a0

nice

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  • #24,180
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:10am Mar 13, 2012 8:10am
E/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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