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  • #1,141
  • Edited 12:09pm Mar 11, 2012 9:36am | Edited 12:09pm
Quoting 5.25
I second that, lots of great reading and material here!

Not a pair I like to trade, but the multiple confluence has my attention. Sunday open is a worry too, I dislike to trade in such low liquidity.

Lovejoy, is this something that interests you?

Have a great weekend all.
The technical confluence here was certainly something that would be worth a long trade IMO. It's not something I would be trading now because the reaction has occurred.

When I look to trade off technical confluence I'm either looking for the 'reaction' trade or for a 'positional' trade.

Of course the reaction trade has occurred now (which forms the basis of the majority of my technical confluence trades) the positional trade is normally based on having some fundamental confluence, price being in a strong trend or correlated confluence etc i.e. I'm looking for a bigger move / swing trade and looking for the technical confluence to be acting as a brick wall.

I have some further thoughts on this pair, but no time at the moment, will detail later this evening.
  • #1,142
  • Mar 11, 2012 9:47am Mar 11, 2012 9:47am
Quoting AvanishDemo
took my full profit on NzdCad on Tuesday before it reversed.
Past week was fun reading & learning charts with so many economic data getting released,so did not trade mch this week but definitely worth the time spent..
here is something i have in my watchlist:
CadChf.:0.9235
notice that 0.9235/40 is a very good weekly level.liking the way its still holiding with a pinbar-ish look.

But i expect Cad to weaken in few days to come.
Can't go wrong spending time watching chart and the reaction of price to economic data that's for sure.

Technically I would say we've had a breakout on this pair now to the upside and would be looking for the zone marked to act as support on any retrace. Will look at in more detail later when have more time.

CHF versus commodity currency pairs like this are affected by broad market risk sentiment too, so I would be bearing this in mind when trading pairs like this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,143
  • Mar 11, 2012 5:29pm Mar 11, 2012 5:29pm
Quoting lovejoy80
The technical confluence here was certainly something that would be worth a long trade IMO. It's not something I would be trading now because the reaction has occurred.

When I look to trade off technical confluence I'm either looking for the 'reaction' trade or for a 'positional' trade.

Of course the reaction trade has occurred now (which forms the basis of the majority of my technical confluence trades) the positional trade is normally based on having some fundamental confluence, price being in a strong trend or correlated...
Ok, not going to go into a lot of details about fundamentals on here, but I do currently have a mild bearish sentiment on the AUD. It was pretty clear AU was going to retrace last week given the failed breakout of the bull flag and given the recent economic data out of AUS and China it certainly seems to me that fundamentally there is the possibility of a shift in sentiment towards the AUD - it's only a possibility IMO at the moment and sentiment doesn't shift overnight.

Whilst talking about fundamentals I also have a mild bullish sentiment towards the CAD. With US data continuing to outperform the likes of EUR and GBP economic data the CAD is an obvious beneficiary of this given it's close ties to the US economy - notice how UCAD hasn't risen anywhere near the same extreme as AU and NU have fallen.

Go and look at HTF charts of GCAD and ECAD versus EAUD, ENZD, GAUD, GNZD and you'll see clear signs of further CAD strength compared to what IMO could be a potential rounded bottom on the EUR/GBP versus NZD/AUD pairs - it's not often you see diverse behaviour on pairs like this.

With the above in mind you can see why I might be swayed to look for short on ACAD from a fundamental / sentiment perspective.

Technially, look at the attached charts:

1. Monthly pin that has broken a clear S/R area.
2. 2 week BEOB

Thus I'm looking to potentially go short from the 1.0520 area or 1.0600 area.

You can see the 1.0520 area on the 1HR chart very clearly - it's actually a pure breakout short I would have taken when price broke this level after NFP, but I reacted to late as was taking shorts on the other CAD pairs as per previous posts. But this is one of the occasions where taking a 'pure' breakout of a level makes sense (there are only a few scenarios IMO on Forex where trading pure breakouts provide good probability trades) - this one is to do with the 'price pressure' at this area (last chart is the chart from the Trading Room telling members to watch this area etc.)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,144
  • Mar 11, 2012 5:34pm Mar 11, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Ok, not going to go into a lot of details about fundamentals on here, but I do currently have a mild bearish sentiment on the AUD. It was pretty clear AU was going to retrace last week given the failed breakout of the bull flag and given the recent economic data out of AUS and China it certainly seems to me that fundamentally there is the possibility of a shift in sentiment towards the AUD - it's only a possibility IMO at the moment and sentiment doesn't shift overnight.

Whilst talking about fundamentals I also have a mild bullish sentiment towards...
As you can see from these posts, this pair presented another good pure breakout setup which I did catch recently.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post5406495

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5423203
  • #1,145
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:54am Mar 12, 2012 2:54am
First setup of the week was hit in Asia so missed out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: cadjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,146
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:40am Mar 12, 2012 6:40am
Another setup that was triggered in Asia without me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,147
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:41am Mar 12, 2012 6:41am
Quoting lovejoy80
Ok, not going to go into a lot of details about fundamentals on here, but I do currently have a mild bearish sentiment on the AUD. It was pretty clear AU was going to retrace last week given the failed breakout of the bull flag and given the recent economic data out of AUS and China it certainly seems to me that fundamentally there is the possibility of a shift in sentiment towards the AUD - it's only a possibility IMO at the moment and sentiment doesn't shift overnight.

Whilst talking about fundamentals I also have a mild bullish sentiment towards...
See what I mean by expected AUD weakness and CAD strength - price has moved straight down since the open last night with no opportunity for a retrace entry.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: acad.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,148
  • Mar 12, 2012 9:37am Mar 12, 2012 9:37am
FTB on GJ taken, a very quick 1.5R profit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,149
  • Mar 12, 2012 12:07pm Mar 12, 2012 12:07pm
Slow day but 1 winning trade and one trade in profit (long NCAD based on technical confluence, half position closed rest still in play) so can't complain.

Was looking to short the Bund @ 139.12, but price didn't come high enough before falling away so order cancelled.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,150
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:03pm Mar 12, 2012 2:03pm
Noticed this GBPUSD FTB Daily Time frame trade.

Here is my thought process of managing this trade:

Touch trade Sell Entry at 1.5690 with SL at 1.5740 (50 Pips) which is 4 hour S&R and the breakout bar on that time frame. First target 1.5655 (35 Pips) where I have taken 50% off and SL adjusted to 1.5695 which is at the top of the Entry bar.

The next Daily Support is at 1.5578 (112 Pips) which if reached would give an R/R of 1.5 on this trade. Currently price is below Daily resistance and on hourly time frame price action doesn't suggest any strong up move, so its well worth to hold onto this trade until further price action.

Mark, after reading your posts and staring at hundreds of your charts, I am trying to manage trades based on price action and S&R and without any emotional interference.

This trade was taken on Dukascopy Platform and I manage my charts on MT4 that is why you won't see actual trade on charts.

Would appreciate, if you could advise of mistakes in my thought process, if any.

Thanks,

alifari
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,151
  • Edited 6:15pm Mar 12, 2012 5:23pm | Edited 6:15pm
Quoting alifari
Noticed this GBPUSD FTB Daily Time frame trade.

Here is my thought process of managing this trade:

Touch trade Sell Entry at 1.5690 with SL at 1.5740 (50 Pips) which is 4 hour S&R and the breakout bar on that time frame. First target 1.5655 (35 Pips) where I have taken 50% off and SL adjusted to 1.5695 which is at the top of the Entry bar.

The next Daily Support is at 1.5578 (112 Pips) which if reached would give an R/R of 1.5 on this trade. Currently price is below Daily resistance and on hourly time frame price action doesn't suggest...
All sounds good to me, I was looking to short from the same area but it just didn't quite get high enough for me.

My reasoning was also based on the fact price was more likely to head down to the range lows given Friday's big bearish bar and given how worn out this range low is and the stops that have accumulated there it was more likely price would at least hit these stops - thus I wanted to be in a short from a higher area in order to ride price down into those stops and see whether we got a false breakout or a confirmed breakout.

BTW for me the 1.57 area is a monthly S/R and the 1.56 area which price hit a daily S/R (quite hard to distinguish higher TF S/R's on this pair).

Charts attached are what I what I prepared last night for the Trading Room to explain what I was looking for.

If you read this link from FXlive http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...stops-whacked/ you'll see they confirm that the sell-stops clustered below there were hit - you don't need to read reports to know where large stops are clustered you just need to understand how the 'retail herd' trade - cos it's very predictable.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-D.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GU-1HR.png Size: 98 KB
  • #1,152
  • Mar 12, 2012 5:28pm Mar 12, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Slow day but 1 winning trade and one trade in profit (long NCAD based on technical confluence, half position closed rest still in play) so can't complain.

Was looking to short the Bund @ 139.12, but price didn't come high enough before falling away so order cancelled.
This is the NCAD setup, my entry was @ 0.8081, SL @ 0.8040, took 25% off @ 0.8126, SL now @ 0.8086
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NCAD.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ncad2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,153
  • Mar 12, 2012 8:14pm Mar 12, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting lovejoy80
See what I mean by expected AUD weakness and CAD strength - price has moved straight down since the open last night with no opportunity for a retrace entry.
What crystal ball do you trade from!

Your posts are a great read. Thanks for sharing.
  • #1,154
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:16am Mar 13, 2012 2:16am
Another setup that was hit during Asia - price went straight to the FLR.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF - 4HR.png Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf-4hr2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #1,155
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:17am Mar 13, 2012 2:17am
Quoting 5.25
What crystal ball do you trade from!

Your posts are a great read. Thanks for sharing.
Ha, just combining pure price action with some basic fundamentals

Thanks.
  • #1,156
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:34am Mar 13, 2012 3:34am
good job lovejoy80 i will definately contribute to thi thread cus is the way i like to trade











patient-greed=success
  • #1,157
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:44am Mar 13, 2012 3:44am
This is what i have for you guys eurjpy 4hour flat top triangle if break up little pull back look for long pls comment and let us look at it together
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy t.gif Size: 27 KB











patient-greed=success
  • #1,158
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:42am Mar 13, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Tiwa
This is what i have for you guys eurjpy 4hour flat top triangle if break up little pull back look for long pls comment and let us look at it togetherAttachment


patient-greed=success
Welcome to the thread Tiwa.

This is certainly a setup off interest.

If we look at the daily TF we can see that we have a lot of price pressure at 108.40 area over recent times with price unable to close above it - this certainly suggests an upside breakout is imminent.

We also had a 1HR Bull-Flag yesterday, it's not something I was interested in but someone else in the Trading Room was so we discussed this and ways to potentially trade flags in detail yesterday - as you can see price had a breakout and shot straight up to the area you have highlighted.

On the 4HR this area looks very clear and an FTB setup would certainly be off interest.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej-d.jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej-1hr.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #1,159
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:48am Mar 13, 2012 4:48am
Quoting AvanishDemo
.
here is something i have in my watchlist:
CadChf.:0.9235
notice that 0.9235/40 is a very good weekly level.liking the way its still holiding with a pinbar-ish look.
Yesterday's daily closing was a concern but continued the trade..
i hve just reduced my risk,SL @ 0.9220(Initial SL :0.9195)
my target 0.93.
will check the chart later after 3-4 hours.

PS:beauty of co-relation of Ecad,CadChf
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,160
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:24am Mar 13, 2012 5:24am
thanks lovejoy80 i will consider your analysis
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