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Symphonie Trader System

  • #8,421
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:02pm Mar 11, 2012 2:02pm
Quoting X-Man
So sad but yet so true. noobs change systems more than they change their underwear. They always searching for the holy grail. Few losses in a row and they out of that system
They go into an indicator frenzy but dont really grasp what leads these indis which is PA. They dont pay attention to what PA is doing and what PA shows us.
Thats the reason why 95% traders fail.

Consistency , patience , discipline , control of greed are key factors to successful traders

Agreed!
  • #8,422
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:18pm Mar 11, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting yelena
and @ olivia
no trick. just get the free copy of the LFH simulator into the strategy tester. load it in the experts.. it has a handy user guide for you to place your sells/buys like you would in real time.

once you selected the TF load the template that houses your matrix/signals. its all working fine with me.

so the H1 candles (super imposed outline) are piercing thru the supertrendline, so at this particular moment, the market is ranging.
I always use the LFH simulator and have done for a few years running different tests but so far unable to get 1.9 signaller to work in it. Never mind, I can't see me using it anyway as it hangs my trading station for far too long, just wanted to see if I could get the same sort of results.
  • #8,423
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:34pm Mar 11, 2012 2:34pm
Don't forget that the US and Canada went over to Daylight Savings early this morning, so they are now GMT -4 instead of -5 in New York.
  • #8,424
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:47pm Mar 11, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting yelena
but if you think about it: M5 in the direction of H1 works in trending, i see no reason why M1 in the direction of M5 would not work in ranging markets. M1 should be able to create earlier signals than M5. by the time M5 signals, the "mini trend" is already exhausted most of the time in ranging markets. i just need to be confirmed that M1 is in the same direction as M5... oui?

hypothetically, the results should be close to reality.

i can't wait to test it live!
When you say in the direction of M5, is that the sentiment and emotion, the arrow, which are you using?
  • #8,425
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:06pm Mar 11, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting ohammond
Thats a bit misleading. Any broker that is regulated within the EU has good legislation. Cayman Islands are not in the EU, but Cyprus and Malta both are. Of course there are bad ones but make sure they are regulated with, if possible segregation of client funds to help protect against the company going bankrupt.
Regulations and legislation for forex brokers is not the same in all of the EU. Why are so many fx brokers using Malta and Cyprus? Cause it's easy to set up à brokerage there and authorities don't ask to many questions......
  • #8,426
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:56pm Mar 11, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting yelena
not quite. the "H1 candles" are drawn in "real time". if you where able to experience the H1 candle as it is 'being spawned" then it is an accurate depiction of reality. check the Mar1-Mar2 transition of your H1 candles in your history, you'll see they are reflective of those that are indicated in my attachment.

nevertheless, that's why it will have to be forward tested.

but if you think about it: M5 in the direction of H1 works in trending, i see no reason why M1 in the direction of M5 would not work in ranging markets. M1 should be able...
Here is what I am doing to test a system or just to get in the zone. In strategy tester you could choose every tick available on model(the default is open prices only or control point, I just don't remember which one) to closely simulate live market. If you choose this option it will account the lowest time frame available in your meta trader.

I usually make a copy of MT4 and load M1 historical data from: http://www.forextester.com/data/datasources.html. In that link they have M1 data from around 2001. Load this data from historical center by pressing F2, then choose which pair you want to load. Then, press import button, check use selected only and chose the data you want to load pressing the latest data, press shift and scroll down then choose the oldest one you want to load. Press Ok, after a while your MT4 will have the data you just load. I only load data from 2008.

Then load any ea in TF you want to trade virtually with visual mode checked. It will open a new chart ended with (Visual). After the chart moves, press pause and load your template. Grab a pen and paper to write down your entries, SL and TP. This way you could train as it was live using historical data fast forwarded several times, even the indie repaint. I think this will closely simulate live market, at least if you use M15 TF as the lowest timeframe available is M1.

Press continue, adjust the speed by moving the slider to the right/left to your preference...... then have fun.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: simulation.png Size: 96 KB
  • #8,427
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:07pm Mar 11, 2012 6:07pm
The Black Swan NO ONE is Talking About: Germany’s “Plan B”

By Phoenix Capital Research
Created 03/10/2012 - 20:53

While the Second Greek Bailout may or may not be complete (depending on whether we get a credit event as a result of it), Germany can and will walk from the Euro if it needs to. This is the unforeseen black swan everyone is ignoring.

Obviously, Germany wouldn’t want to do this as it would result in Germany being blamed for the Euro failing. So thus far, “Plan A” for Germany has been to offer bailout funds that are contingent on requirements so unpalatable that Greece or any other PIIG would likely end up preferring to walk rather than submit to them.

Case in point, before the second Greek Bailout German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble proposed that Greece should postpone its April elections as part of the bailout package.

In simple terms, Schäuble is concerned that the unpopularity of the austerity measures being imposed on Greece as part of the second bailout package would lead to a “wrong” democratic choice.

Let that last paragraph sink in for a moment; it’s so outlandish it’s hard to even comprehend. Imagine if a Chinese official suggested the US put off its elections otherwise China would dump US Treasuries en masse and you’ll see what I mean.

Understand, Schäuble is no idiot. He knows that there is no way Greece would go for this. So his comment can only be seen as an attempt to incite a Greek backlash while also winning political points in Germany.

Indeed, those who show themselves willing to play hardball with Greece have seen a huge boost in the polls (Merkel recently saw her approval ratings hit their highest levels since her re-election by doing this). Schäuble is obviously taking a page from her playbook here.

We should also take Schäuble’s statements in the context of Angela Merkel’s recent backing of Nicolas Sarkozy’s re-election campaign in France against hardened socialist François Hollande, who wants to engage in a rampant socialist mission to lower France’s retirement age, cut tax breaks to the wealthy, and break the recent new EU fiscal requirements Germany convinced 17 members of the EU to agree to.

Current polls show Hollande winning the election if it goes to a second round. The fact that Sarkozy’s re-election campaign just kicked off with an MP from his party announcing that the Nazis never deported homosexuals from France to Germany during the Holocaust (hardly a statement that boosts Sarkozy’s chances of re-election) isn’t helping.

Put another way, German leaders, particularly Merkel and Schäuble see the writing on the political wall: that both Greece and France are likely going to find themselves with new leadership that is pro-socialism, anti-austerity measures, and most certainly anti-taking orders from Germany.

Thus, Germany must be aware (as the EU, IMF, and ECB are to some degree) that it is ultimately fighting a losing battle by participating in the bailouts. Indeed, Schäuble has even gone so far as to recently call Greece a “bottomless pit” where money is wasted (having just participated in Greek bailouts that exceed the entirety of Greece’s GDP, he does have a point here).

Schäuble’s statements have not passed unnoticed by the Greeks. Greek politicians have regularly brought up Germany’s lack of war reparations to Greece post-WWII while the Greek media has begun regularly portraying Schäuble and Angela Merkel as Nazis.

So while a “deal” may have officially been struck for Greece, there are deep underlying tensions that could bring the EU to a crashing halt at any point.

Big picture, we must remember that Greece is just the opening act for what’s to come in Europe: Italy and Spain are waiting in the wings to take center stage as soon as the Greece bailout deal is finalized (if this happens… which remains to be seen).

Having seen how ineffective the whole “hand over fiscal sovereignty in exchange for more, cheaper debt/ bailouts” deals have been for Greece, Spain’s already told the EU to “shove” its budgetary requirements. This kind of political tension will be growing between EU members in the coming months as Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy all start showing their hands at the EU poker table.

Germany is aware of this, as well as the fact that there is no way German voters will go for bailouts of any more of the PIIGS (even if Germany, the IMF, and ECB had the funds to bail out Spain or Italy… which they don’t). This is why Germany has decided to play hardball with Greece. It’s also why Germany has put into place a contingency plan that would permit it to leave the Euro if it had to.

What is Germany’s “Plan B”? Leave the Euro but remain in the EU (maybe).

If you don’t believe me, consider that in the last six months Germany has:

 

  1. Passed legislation that would permit Germany to leave the Euro but remain a part of the EU
  2. Reinstated its Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds, (or SoFFin for short)


It is the second of these items (the reinstatement of the SoFFIN) that the western media and 99% of investors have missed entirely. In short, Germany has given the SoFFIN:

 

  1. €400 billion to be used as guarantees for German banks.
  2. €80 billion to be used for the recapitalization of German banks
  3. Legislation that would permit German banks to dump their euro-zone government bonds if needed.


That is correct. Any German bank, if it so chooses, will have the option to dump its EU sovereign bonds into the SoFFIN during a Crisis.

In simple terms, Germany has put a €480 billion firewall around its banks. It can literally pull out of the Euro any time it wants to. The question is whether its current EU power grab is successful. If it isn’t… and other EU nations refuse to play ball (like Spain has started to) then Germany could very easily leave the Euro.

This is the black swan no one is talking about. If Germany bails on the Euro, the EU will collapse. It will be Lehman Brothers times 10 if not worse.

  • #8,428
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:09pm Mar 11, 2012 6:09pm
Europe's Scariest Chart Just Got Scarier

By Tyler Durden
Created 03/10/2012 - 23:22

The last time we plotted European youth unemployment in what was dubbed "Europe's scariest chart [8]" we were surprised to discover that when it comes to "Arab Spring inspiring" youth unemployment, Spain was actually worse off than even (now officially broke) Greece, whose young adult unemployment at the time was only just better compared to that... of the United States [9]. Luckily, following the latest economic (yes, we laughed too) update from Greece, it is safe to say that things are back to normal, as Greek youth unemployment is officially the second one in Europe after Spain to surpass 50%. In other words, Europe's scariest chart just got even scarier.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...nemplyment.jpg [10]
And so while the Greek economy is in tatters, following another downward revision to its GDP as reported last week [11], this time dragging Q4 GDP from -7.0% to -7.5%, that's only the beginning, and it now appears that a terminal collapse of not just the Greek financial sector, but its society as well, has commenced, as the number of people unemployed in the 11 million person country is now 41% greater than its was a year ago. From Athens News: [12]



The average unemployment rate for 2011 jumped to 17.3 percent from 12.5 percent in the previous year, according to the figures, which are not adjusted for seasonal factors.

Youth were particularly hit. For the first time on record, more people between 15-24 years were without a job than with one. Unemployment in that age group rose to 51.1 percent, twice as high as three years ago.

Budget cuts imposed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund as a condition for dealing with the country's debt problems have caused a wave of corporate closures and bankruptcies.

Greece's economy is estimated to have shrunk by a about a fifth since 2008, when it plunged into its deepest and longest post-war recession. About 600,000 jobs, more than one in ten, have been destroyed in the process.

Things will get worse before they get better, according to analysts. "Despite some emergency government measures to boost employment in early 2012, it is hard to see how the upward unemployment trend can be stabilised in the first half of the year," said Nikos Magginas, an economist at National Bank of Greece.

A record 1,033,507 people were without work in December, 41 percent more than in the same month last year. The number of people in work dropped to a record low of 3,899,319, down 7.9 percent year-on-year.

When will the Greeks ask themselves if the complete and utter destruction of their society is worth it, just to pretend that life as a European colony is worth living. Especially now that pension funds have been vaporized?
  • #8,429
  • Mar 11, 2012 10:17pm Mar 11, 2012 10:17pm
hey guys... im doing the forward simulations and when i run signaler 1.7 on the 5 min... the 15 min sentiment didn't change at all so as a confirmation a trade signal never alerted.... does anyone know why that would be and had the same problem...
i was testing last month starting jan. 30th...
  • #8,430
  • Mar 11, 2012 11:50pm Mar 11, 2012 11:50pm
Quoting roobii
hey guys... im doing the forward simulations and when i run signaler 1.7 on the 5 min... the 15 min sentiment didn't change at all so as a confirmation a trade signal never alerted.... does anyone know why that would be and had the same problem...
i was testing last month starting jan. 30th...
Robii it is not changing because in forward simulation multi time frame is not suporrted
  • #8,431
  • Mar 12, 2012 1:42am Mar 12, 2012 1:42am
Quoting expresid
Robii it is not changing because in forward simulation multi time frame is not suporrted
Why don't you run simulation on M15, the M1 and M5 signal will be there. Take a trade with M5 signal while looking at M15 chart will be weird at fist.

@robii: thanks, I'll look to it.
  • #8,432
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:12am Mar 12, 2012 2:12am
Quoting Pinhead
Here's MQ4 Goldminer. AKA Forex Trend and Silver Trend. Apparently based on ZigZag indicator.
AKA Forex trend and silver trend are useful to me .Thanks!
  • #8,433
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:19am Mar 12, 2012 2:19am
Quoting yelena
thank you for this!

wow we're ranging. field testing M1+M5... no signals yet for 1.9
Watch out for nose bleeds!!

M5 has given up a couple of nice trades since Asian open.....
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #8,434
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:34am Mar 12, 2012 2:34am
Quoting realjumper
Watch out for nose bleeds!!

M5 has given up a couple of nice trades since Asian open.....

not looking at smaller TF's. ill only take them as 1.9 gives signals. lol.

well, you missed NFP monsieur, so you really gotta work your ass today

reconsider NFP. with symphonie entries are flawless. im sure in the future, it will not just be NFP who can do 100-200 pip whipsaws. can't avoid it forever. as long as you have SL's and TP's in place, you should be fine.
  • #8,435
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:38am Mar 12, 2012 2:38am
Not sure if I'm doing something wrong but I'm still unsure as to when a signal occurs on ver1.9 , can someone please post their chart as soon as they have take a trade triggered by a signal from ver1.9 ?? Mine seem to change colors as I change time frames !!
  • #8,436
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:47am Mar 12, 2012 2:47am
Quoting yelena
not looking at smaller TF's. ill only take them as 1.9 gives signals. lol.

well, you missed NFP monsieur, so you really gotta work your ass today

reconsider NFP. with symphonie entries are flawless. im sure in the future, it will not just be NFP who can do 100-200 pip whipsaws. can't avoid it forever. as long as you have SL's and TP's in place, you should be fine.
Last weeks NFP would have been fine to trade....I can say that now with hindsight of course. There have been times when 100 pips spikes.....not whipsaws......spikes, have gone either side of the price, and no SL is going to save you from that. A SL just can't do it.....you'll get 80 pip slippage very time.

But for those who prospered from NFP, well done. It was an easy 120 pips. As you say Yelena....now I'll have to work to catch up.....and I'm already on my way
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #8,437
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:53am Mar 12, 2012 2:53am
This is a trade I took a few minutes ago when M5 broke the yellow resistance line (though it wasn't a strong one, I preferred waiting for it to be cleared) at 5685.

SL= 5645
TP= 5780
R:R= 1:2.2

Plan: If H1 gives a buy signal too (waiting only for trendline atm), I'll open another long with the same stop and TP.

This is not a signal for anyone, just for educational purpose and to show how it is easy to trade Symphonie signals based on the rules on Post 1. Keep it simple everyone.

Regards,
Blackeagle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-m15.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #8,438
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:57am Mar 12, 2012 2:57am
Quoting Daytrader74
Not sure if I'm doing something wrong but I'm still unsure as to when a signal occurs on ver1.9 , can someone please post their chart as soon as they have take a trade triggered by a signal from ver1.9 ?? Mine seem to change colors as I change time frames !!
i dont change TF's where 1.9 simply coz i dont fully understand how it behaves.

if your fingers are itching try 1.7, its been noisy. take only M1 signals to the direction of M5. im just not skilled to look at lower TF's so ill rely on 1.9 for the mean time.
  • #8,439
  • Mar 12, 2012 2:59am Mar 12, 2012 2:59am
Quoting realjumper
Last weeks NFP would have been fine to trade....I can say that now with hindsight of course. There have been times when 100 pips spikes.....not whipsaws......spikes, have gone either side of the price, and no SL is going to save you from that. A SL just can't do it.....you'll get 80 pip slippage very time.

But for those who prospered from NFP, well done. It was an easy 120 pips. As you say Yelena....now I'll have to work to catch up.....and I'm already on my way
Totally agree with you on this. On top of that, brokers widen the spreads up to 30-40 pips (you have read correctly, thirty-forty pips), so it is totally meaningless to trade NFP, especially lower time frames with tight stops. It is almost certain that you will be stopped with a good amount of slippage.

Anyway, some people like learning by living whereas others by listening.

Regards,
Blackeagle
  • #8,440
  • Mar 12, 2012 3:00am Mar 12, 2012 3:00am
Quoting Blackeagle
This is a trade I took a few minutes ago when M5 broke the yellow resistance line (though it wasn't a strong one, I preferred waiting for it to be cleared) at 5685.

SL= 5645
TP= 5780
R:R= 1:2.2

Plan: If H1 gives a buy signal too (waiting only for trendline atm), I'll open another long with the same stop and TP.

This is not a signal for anyone, just for educational purpose and to show how it is easy to trade Symphonie signals based on the rules on Post 1. Keep it simple everyone.

Regards,
Blackeagle
I'm in that same trade.......
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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