EURUSD | Page 30361 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #607,201
  • Mar 10, 2012 12:47pm Mar 10, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting the redlion
I will share a little piece of analysis with you guys..........I am no psychic so the market will do whatever it wants but here is the plan.

Attachment

you see we are in a very good situation coming from a weekend closing at 1.3120

the way I structure my price targets is 20 50 80 and 00 so any number in between is just a part of the respective quartile.

before the NFP we saw a pump and dump move as we went up in price....i did not trade spot i traded digital options in cases like this.

then as the NFP numbers came more positive...
It will go higher before coming down.I am looking to gain 50-70 pips going 200 zone.
It might reverse but you could ride up and down.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #607,202
  • Mar 10, 2012 12:50pm Mar 10, 2012 12:50pm
you postulate we will have a positive day on monday then?

i mean Asian session only gives about 40-60 pips while Euro/America gives the rest of the pips, about 120-150 on average
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #607,203
  • Mar 10, 2012 12:58pm Mar 10, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting the redlion
you postulate we will have a positive day on monday then?

i mean Asian session only gives about 40-60 pips while Euro/America gives the rest of the pips, about 120-150 on average
I am not an expert but I know human psychology.People usually see EUR/USD at this low price as "bargain"
Irregardless of the situation.Before any real adjustment I expect price to shoot high and fast.1st 2hrs over 100 pips.
This is just my opinion.Time is critical.If you wait too long you will miss the boat.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #607,204
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:02pm Mar 10, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting the redlion
I will share a little piece of analysis with you guys..........I am no psychic so the market will do whatever it wants but here is the plan.

Attachment

you see we are in a very good situation coming from a weekend closing at 1.3120

the way I structure my price targets is 20 50 80 and 00 so any number in between is just a part of the respective quartile.

before the NFP we saw a pump and dump move as we went up in price....i did not trade spot i traded digital options in cases like this.

then as the NFP numbers came more positive...
I've been saying this for months that he correlation will be broken, once USD gets going with S&P it will be unstoppable.

New risk on = USD Up

risk off = USD up or consolodate because of the old correlation can still be taken as a buying oppurtunity.

Why else do you see JPY weakening so much? All of the risk is being taken with selling JPY..


Those that get in now might have a good long term pos for when fed increases rates and it then becomes a carry... you have a win win (risk aversion currency that gives positive swap). After all they are likely to increase it before JPY does anyway.
  • #607,205
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:11pm Mar 10, 2012 1:11pm
We'll see what happens my bias little bit to downside for EU next week.
QE 3 seems far away show if that's ever gonna show up.

EZ fundamentally in bad shape.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #607,206
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:17pm Mar 10, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting sidhujag
I've been saying this for months that he correlation will be broken, once USD gets going with S&P it will be unstoppable.

New risk on = USD Up

risk off = USD up or consolodate because of the old correlation can still be taken as a buying oppurtunity.

Why else do you see JPY weakening so much? All of the risk is being taken with selling JPY..


Those that get in now might have a good long term pos for when fed increases rates and it then becomes a carry... you have a win win (risk aversion currency that gives positive swap). After all...
JPY is no longer safe heave due to the stepping in of the BOJ of devaluing the Yen, 76 was a fair value a couple of weeks ago but it was hurting exports so i think it stands at 82 or so and my guess is that the BOJ wants 100, due to the hit the Japanese exporting Companies took post Tsunami. CHF is no longer safe as they are flooring the 1.20 eur, which is a sort of pegg, that left JPY which I personally havent touched due to the BOJ, and the Krona but the biggest market share is the green back and as you put it, is the only safe heaven fiat currency at the moment.

HOWEVER, the FED does not want a strong dollar, because of the shaky recovery of the US, it would hinder exports, so if the USD gets overweight granted the PCE is under 2% FED target we will have QE
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #607,207
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:25pm Mar 10, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting the redlion
JPY is no longer safe heave due to the stepping in of the BOJ of devaluing the Yen, 76 was a fair value a couple of weeks ago but it was hurting exports so i think it stands at 82 or so and my guess is that the BOJ wants 100, due to the hit the Japanese exporting Companies took post Tsunami. CHF is no longer safe as they are flooring the 1.20 eur, which is a sort of pegg, that left JPY which I personally havent touched due to the BOJ, and the Krona but the biggest market share is the green back and as you put it, is the only safe heaven fiat currency...
true but numbers are coming in good for us that supports strong dollar so it wont meet the target its balanced by general demand. U think market cares what boj wants or does? Did they care when they intervened before? The variable target they set was just an excuse in my mind as a buy the rumour sell the news. The general market if u weigh jpy and usd pairs shows a more clear pic of whats going on. It is all being driven by s&p and as ez falters it should drive s&p higher. (think about recent news that foreign cbs are buying us stock outright).
  • #607,208
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:28pm Mar 10, 2012 1:28pm
how u figure 76 was fair value? Historic low with multiple interventions yea thats fair alright.

Fed may not want a weak dollar if u understand what happens when they do qe and how they offload debt to foreign bond holders. If no qe fed wants strong dollar. Last i checked is is an import driven country as it hasnt changed overnight i dont think a fluctuatiom of exports will hurt as much as u think it does, afterall it would be offset by the pump n dump of any future qe
  • #607,209
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:33pm Mar 10, 2012 1:33pm
i actually think markets due care what Central Banks do as it is they who control the money supply, the BOJ was threatening and shaking off the strong yen for a while till they really acted. you can't say that the market doesnt care what the FED does, if they print USD, and buy up hundreds of billions in bonds, i am sure the market would care, then Gold as an inflation hedge would go higher, as it is doing.

At least I do not see that everything is peachy keen with the US, although the NFP is higher and the official unemployment is lower, Gas prices are at 4+ USD that will put strain on prices and consumer confidence as well as purchase power has been shaken in the last years, this is threatening US recovery in my opinion.

If you are right, then I would really like to see CD'S and Money market rates rise on safer investments, while I am worried about the Bond market selling off on higher interest rates as some pundits have put it.

we can speculate all we want but it is what happens that matters.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #607,210
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:35pm Mar 10, 2012 1:35pm
my definition of fair market value is what the price is doing and holding at the time, i see fair value more as EMH sort of style as long as it is holding.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #607,211
  • Mar 10, 2012 1:38pm Mar 10, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting the redlion
i actually think markets due care what Central Banks do as it is they who control the money supply, the BOJ was threatening and shaking off the strong yen for a while till they really acted. you can't say that the market doesnt care what the FED does, if they print USD, and buy up hundreds of billions in bonds, i am sure the market would care, then Gold as an inflation hedge would go higher, as it is doing.

At least I do not see that everything is peachy keen with the US, although the NFP is higher and the official unemployment is lower, Gas...
yea but none of the other cbs were on bojs side so market is still stronger than boj maybe not fed. I do think that even us bonds may selloff because theve seen the greece movie and safest think is just put it in stocks with benefit of higher growth. I think the movement into usd is not parking money but velocity of money increasing which is the real deal when talking about demand for a currency
  • #607,212
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:27pm Mar 10, 2012 2:27pm
Price is always fair.

Sometimes I read pure nonsense like:
price on the 5 minute chart is overbought but on the hour it is oversold.

Then I always think: C'mon get your facts straight. Is it too expensive or too cheap? It cannot be both at the same time.

Fact: Price is always on the way to the fair value. That never stops. Price is never overbought and never oversold.

Once it reaches the fair value, that fair value has changed so it is on the move again.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #607,213
  • Mar 10, 2012 2:35pm Mar 10, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Price is always fair.

Sometimes I read pure nonsense like:
price on the 5 minute chart is overbought but on the hour it is oversold.

Then I always think: c'mon get your facts straight. Is it overbought or oversold? It cannot be both at the same time.

Fact: Price is always on the way to the fair value. That never stops. Price is never overbought and never oversold.

Once it reaches the fair value, that fair value has changed so it is on the move again.


pretty much...........to add to that there are no time frames.
just holding times, how long do you/are you willing to hold

other than that 1.3122 is 1.3122 in the tick, hourly, monthly, or yearly.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #607,214
  • Mar 10, 2012 3:47pm Mar 10, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting the redlion


pretty much...........to add to that there are no time frames.
just holding times, how long do you/are you willing to hold

other than that 1.3122 is 1.3122 in the tick, hourly, monthly, or yearly.

yes, once a level been defined to defend does not matter what timeframe.

Next week will be all "bears" time

AU EU Kiwi Cable, possibly Geppy, Swissy wil be "bull" time

Dont care what gap shit is, I am looking forward to a good week, I holding short runners and will be selling and/or defending Mondays open. and selling all rallies,
below, above open I sitting on hands.

I feel they good prices for longer term trades, trade safe bro
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #607,215
  • Mar 10, 2012 3:59pm Mar 10, 2012 3:59pm
Is the euro set to tank? There are many reasons to believe so.
  • #607,216
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:11pm Mar 10, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Price is always fair.

Sometimes I read pure nonsense like:
price on the 5 minute chart is overbought but on the hour it is oversold.

Then I always think: C'mon get your facts straight. Is it too expensive or too cheap? It cannot be both at the same time.

Fact: Price is always on the way to the fair value. That never stops. Price is never overbought and never oversold.

Once it reaches the fair value, that fair value has changed so it is on the move again.
There is no such thing as oversold nor overbought... However price does have to balance... Very well said KillerWhale.
  • #607,217
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:24pm Mar 10, 2012 4:24pm
football
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bet rma.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #607,218
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:31pm Mar 10, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Price is always fair.

Sometimes I read pure nonsense like:
price on the 5 minute chart is overbought but on the hour it is oversold.

Then I always think: C'mon get your facts straight. Is it too expensive or too cheap? It cannot be both at the same time.

Fact: Price is always on the way to the fair value. That never stops. Price is never overbought and never oversold.

Once it reaches the fair value, that fair value has changed so it is on the move again.
depends on perspective wasnt fair to boj hence intervention. also its not always absolutely fair but u have arbing to fix that
  • #607,219
  • Mar 10, 2012 4:46pm Mar 10, 2012 4:46pm
I know this is the wrong thread but throwing this in.
I have been making good pips riding yo yo on GBP/JPY
Currently borderline high 129.338
Overbought!Usually drops back to 27-28 or even lower.
Usually big drop happens before Sidney close 1:30-2am NY time.
When it happens it drops fast and I mean fast like 50+pips in 10-15 min or less.
Something to look for.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #607,220
  • Mar 10, 2012 5:08pm Mar 10, 2012 5:08pm
speaking of defending levels

1.31
1.32
1.33
1.34
1.35

basically all whole numbers are important as far as price levels go. and If one wants to find some statistical structure to price, the quartiles work as well

1.30 00
1.30 20
1.30 50
1.30 80
1.31 00

all positions are either a long or short, from current price, I like to use the Open price as reference point

some traders like to sell below open, buy above open, and check for reversals
others like to see what the volatility is and get a good position contrary to the intended direction.

donchian channels (prev high and low) help in further structuring the trade, but to each his own.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
310 traders viewing now