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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #23,941
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:15am Mar 9, 2012 9:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
Thanks.
If we manage to breach 3095, I'll bring out my giant hammer.
http://netanimations.net/ichy_Hammering.gif
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,942
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:16am Mar 9, 2012 9:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
We still have to break 3125 and 3095
In the mean time, I am confident that if it retraces upwards, there are plenty of bears waiting to jump in around 3170/80

ADD: Right now the USD gains are being temporarily capped by a battle in the U/J pair
thanks for links earlier and now this usdx chart, helpful.
covering at 3105, selling hard 3085-95 depending on pa
  • #23,943
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:33am Mar 9, 2012 9:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
what price did you get in at? 1.3080 area?
Closed @ 3115. +67 pips. Total of +171 pips this week. Better result for the week personally. 21:00 hrs local time. Am closing down now and leaving. See you PT.

Happy Trading dear friends.
  • #23,944
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:41am Mar 9, 2012 9:41am
And I'll be one of them


Given the time of the day, no continuation from NY, we're at support (I also have neckline of H&S @ 1.3114 btw), so I'm more prone on profit taking now.



Quoting PipTrapper
We still have to break 3125 and 3095
In the mean time, I am confident that if it retraces upwards, there are plenty of bears waiting to jump in around 3170/80

ADD: Right now the USD gains are being temporarily capped by a battle in the U/J pair
  • #23,945
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:43am Mar 9, 2012 9:43am
wait for pullback before you sell hard. I'm not saying that it's not going to go down further now, but the odds would be against you m8.
Quoting Cerber.bf2
thanks for links earlier and now this usdx chart, helpful.
covering at 3105, selling hard 3085-95 depending on pa
  • #23,946
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:44am Mar 9, 2012 9:44am
well done to you
Quoting FX Tsunami
Closed @ 3115. +67 pips. Total of +171 pips this week. Better result for the week personally. 21:00 hrs local time. Am closing down now and leaving. See you PT.

Happy Trading dear friends.
  • #23,947
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:45am Mar 9, 2012 9:45am
Quoting BrunargarFx
wait for pullback before you sell hard. I'm not saying that it's not going to go down further now, but the odds would be against you m8.
yeah, thanks.
  • #23,948
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:51am Mar 9, 2012 9:51am
So wait, I got a question, does the 16% include the 9%, if not then you're saying our real rate of ppl without a job would be 25%? Which would be truly scarier than 16%.

Quoting knoholygrail
The following will help to prepare you for Friday’s nonsensical jobs data.

COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.

ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%.

COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?

ABBOTT: No, that's 16%.

[b][size=5][font=Times New Roman]COSTELLO:...
  • #23,949
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:52am Mar 9, 2012 9:52am
Quoting Cerber.bf2
yeah, thanks.
I personally would not put in a short here
I am considering putting in a short on break of 3095 because I am already short from 1.34 and 1.3248 so this would be averaging in and I have loads of green pips to buffer the trade.

So for anyone who is not in yet, wait for a pullback to 3170 area. If we don't get it and it breaks lower, keep a tight stop coz it may just come back above 3095 before days end as shorts are covered going into the european close and probably also into the US close.

Just my 2 cents. Always choose your proven strategy over my advice
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,950
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:57am Mar 9, 2012 9:57am
Quoting nyfx718
So wait, I got a question, does the 16% include the 9%, if not then you're saying our real rate of ppl without a job would be 25%? Which would be truly scarier than 16%.
haha.. Nooo. "Out Of Work" includes "unemployed" so the figure is 16% total.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,951
  • Mar 9, 2012 9:59am Mar 9, 2012 9:59am
Yes, come one my fellow NY'ers, let finish off the Euro today nice and strong! I need to hit my target! lol, I've done my part and am in short the pair.

Quoting PipTrapper
resistance breached

USDX H4

Attachment

Now it's up to NY to finish the job.
Come on NY... trash the Euro

Attachment
  • #23,952
  • Mar 9, 2012 10:11am Mar 9, 2012 10:11am
M8, you are scary - This is really what I have in mind.

It doesn't matter if the euro flips now or not. As you pointed out, unless you are already in, you're best bet is to wait for pullback from here or from lower before selling again!



Quoting PipTrapper
I personally would not put in a short here
I am considering putting in a short on break of 3095 because I am already short from 1.34 and 1.3248 so this would be averaging in and I have loads of green pips to buffer the trade.

So for anyone who is not in yet, wait for a pullback to 3170 area. If we don't get it and it breaks lower, keep a tight stop coz it may just come back above 3095 before days end as shorts are covered going into the european close and probably also into the US close.

Just my 2 cents. Always choose your proven strategy over...
  • #23,953
  • Mar 9, 2012 10:44am Mar 9, 2012 10:44am
Quoting BrunargarFx
M8, you are scary - This is really what I have in mind.

It doesn't matter if the euro flips now or not. As you pointed out, unless you are already in, you're best bet is to wait for pullback from here or from lower before selling again!

Well I don't know if we're gonna get a final push down but if/when we do, it's gonna be a popper and trigger a whole bunch of "sell stops" and "buy stop losses" so I just put in a sell stop at 3092 and a smaller one down at 3050

Don't do this at home folks
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,954
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:01am Mar 9, 2012 11:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Well I don't know if we're gonna get a final push down but if/when we do, it's gonna be a popper and trigger a whole bunch of "sell stops" and "buy stop losses" so I just put in a sell stop at 3092 and a smaller one down at 3050

Don't do this at home folks
Dollar look shine yo
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,955
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:38am Mar 9, 2012 11:38am
How to trade the outcomes of the ISDA decision

Written by Adam Button
March 9, 2012 at 17:29 GMT

The Greek CDS meeting is well into Hour #4 and there is indication on when the announcement on the ISDA website will come.

The knee jerk reaction to triggering CDS will be euro selling and some risk aversion. It’s an open question about how braced the market is for such an outcome. CitiFX out earlier saying it’s only 50% priced in but I would put it at 90% so the reaction will probably be minimal, after the knee jerk. At most, this might knock some initial stops down to 1.3060/50 before the buyers bid it back up.

The market will then look for any secondary signs of forced selling i.e. a bank that’s not prepared for this outcome. This is an extremely low probability event, banks and funds should be prepared for this.

If CDS are not triggered there should be a small pop in the euro, but the secondary reaction will depend on the statement. ISDA could rule that it does not yet have enough info, reserve judgment until later or simply delay the verdict. If so, the initial move will quickly backtrack.

If CDS are not triggered and ISDA reports that the case is closed, the knee jerk will be higher euro but I suspect it won’t last long (less than a minute). Such a ruling would massively undermine the CDS market. Expect CDS on Portugal to fall dramatically because the process would lose legitimacy. At the same time, Portuguese (and other periphery) bond yields would rise because they would now be uninsurable. There would be a lot of kicking a screaming and many unintended consequences, which generally means yen buying.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,956
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:48am Mar 9, 2012 11:48am
should just risk off alr. no currency is stable anymore.
  • #23,957
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:57am Mar 9, 2012 11:57am
Quoting trader-tan
should just risk off alr. no currency is stable anymore.
u think to much singapore tan
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,958
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:59am Mar 9, 2012 11:59am
Quoting FXMindset
u think to much singapore tan
hahaha! how you know i aint a chinaman???

the trend is written all over the price of gold! any gold QE?
  • #23,959
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:00pm Mar 9, 2012 12:00pm
Guys,

Chart tell us everything,these days rumours so many good one yah but hell the market still short,Just stick with the chart

Pressure ON
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUD.png Size: 36 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,960
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:02pm Mar 9, 2012 12:02pm
Portugal's Economic Woes Deepen

By PATRICIA KOWSMANN [email protected]

LISBON—Portugal's economy continued to contract in the final three months of 2011, the country's statistics agency said Friday, as austerity measures hit domestic demand and the euro-zone crisis slowed exports.

Portugal's gross domestic product shrank 2.8% in the fourth quarter on an annual basis, and fell 1.3% from the third quarter, according to final calculations from the National Statistics Institute.

The annual drop was slightly deeper than the 2.7% contraction reported in a flash estimate last month.

For the whole of 2011, Portugal's economy contracted 1.6%, compared with a 1.4% growth in 2010.

The statistics agency said domestic demand and investment fell sharply, while growth in exports slowed.

Portugal's government has been hoping for healthy growth in exports to help balance the effects of a harsh program of tax rises and spending cuts it is implementing to control its high public deficit.

Last year, exports rose 7.4%. But while annual growth each quarter started strong, it slowed as the year progressed, showing the country is being hit by crises in other countries in Europe and elsewhere.

Portugal's largest export market, Spain, for instance, is currently undergoing its own austerity program that will hit internal consumption and imports.

Investors are monitoring Portugal's austerity measures, which are being implemented under its €78 billion ($103.55 billion) bailout program, as their impact could be hitting the economy harder than expected.

The fear is that, as in Greece, cuts in public wages, rising unemployment and continued tax rises could spark a deep contraction that would make fiscal targets hard to meet.

Portugal must cut its budget deficit to 4.5% of GDP this year from 9.8% in 2010.

In a press conference in Stockholm, the Portuguese prime minister again dismissed the idea that the country could be entering into a Greek-style recessionary spiral.

"Spain and other European markets for Portuguese trade are contracting also, so we are not slowing down because of a vicious circle of austerity, but because external demand is weaker than previous forecasts showed," Pedro Passos Coelho told reporters after meeting Sweden's prime minister.

The government recently downgraded its forecasts for economic output this year, to a contraction of 3.3% from 3% previously. It predicts growth will return in 2013. Some economists are more pessimistic.

In a recent note, Barclays Capital analysts predicted the economy will shrink 3.7% this year, and a further 2.1% in 2013.

"The need for a rebalancing of its highly leveraged domestic financial sector, tight fiscal conditions at home and weak prospects for global GDP are likely to keep the Portuguese economy in recessionary territory in the next two years," they said.

"As the problems of Portugal are essentially structural, we would expect the Portuguese economy to remain under an EU-IMF program for the foreseeable future," it added.

Although Portugal's program runs until 2014, the country is expected to tap markets for financing again in September 2013.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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