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  • #1,121
  • Mar 8, 2012 9:09am Mar 8, 2012 9:09am
1) Noticed this nice confluence touch trade on AUDUSD, well on its way to hit FLS.

2) EURUSD missed entry point by few pips.

3) Also USDX close to support & EURX close to resistance.

Was little hesitant in taking these trades due to big news today, but market reacted to these areas, as expected.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,122
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:15pm Mar 8, 2012 1:15pm
Quoting alifari
1) Noticed this nice confluence touch trade on AUDUSD, well on its way to hit FLS.

2) EURUSD missed entry point by few pips.

3) Also USDX close to support & EURX close to resistance.

Was little hesitant in taking these trades due to big news today, but market reacted to these areas, as expected.
We were looking at the same thing in the Trading Room today - AU and NU both approaching S/R setups with confluence from Equities and USDX/EURx

I was too late to take AU but too the NU setup below.
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  • #1,123
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:16pm Mar 8, 2012 1:16pm
EURGBP setup was hit today
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  • #1,124
  • Mar 8, 2012 4:54pm Mar 8, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting lovejoy80
We were looking at the same thing in the Trading Room today - AU and NU both approaching S/R setups with confluence from Equities and USDX/EURx

I was too late to take AU but too the NU setup below.
Hi Lovejoy

Excuse my ignorance but how are you managing the NZDUSD trade? I have two approaches that deal with the same setup only slightly differently. 1h TF for the short term, Daily TF for the long term. 1h trade has been executed and concluded. D1, still in for a larger move.

Thanks, Tomek
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  • #1,125
  • Mar 8, 2012 5:28pm Mar 8, 2012 5:28pm
Quoting 5.25
Hi Lovejoy

Excuse my ignorance but how are you managing the NZDUSD trade? I have two approaches that deal with the same setup only slightly differently. 1h TF for the short term, Daily TF for the long term. 1h trade has been executed and concluded. D1, still in for a larger move.

Thanks, Tomek
I closed half of mine at the same location you have marked (it's a daily S/R). The other half I have my SL above the daily bar high at the moment but will reassess tomorrow.

I won't go leaving this position open going into NFP if price is near my SL - risk of slippage and increased spreads is just too great to be worth it.
  • #1,126
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:15am Mar 9, 2012 1:15am
This just goes to show that as long as the pair is liquid enough and the HTF S/R clear and precise enough then you're going to get the order flow that will cause a bounce here a lot more often than not.

SL below the bar on the left, damn obvious FLR - including spreads that's circa 1.55R.

I really don't know why more people don't trade pure price action, well I do - it's cos people don't truly understand the power of S/R's, the order flow and dynamics that exist and don't have the ability to think logically about what price is telling us - people are far far too mechanical in their thinking when it comes to price action from what I see on public forums.
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  • #1,127
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:20am Mar 9, 2012 1:20am
Back to 'normal' pairs...technical confluence at a daily S/R to go short and an FTB at a monthly S/R to go long.

UCHF - technical confluence to go long at a daily S/R
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  • #1,128
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:31am Mar 9, 2012 1:31am
A couple on the watchlist for the future.
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  • #1,129
  • Mar 9, 2012 2:59am Mar 9, 2012 2:59am
Quoting lovejoy80
EURGBP setup was hit today
FLS @ 0.8380 level was hit and now second target hit.

A wedge pattern now in progress too.
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  • #1,130
  • Mar 9, 2012 3:05am Mar 9, 2012 3:05am
Suffered a partial loss on this setup last night.

I'd already decreased risk because price came fairly close to the area not long before. We got a small reaction to previous bar lows but my FLR was the higher level marked.

I moved my SL to under the 1HR bar low once price was hovering around and we were entering a quiet time of day - it duly got hit very soon after. Original SL was @ 0.9892 (entry @ 0.9909, exit @ 0.9901) so suffered a -0.47R loss.
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  • #1,131
  • Mar 9, 2012 3:59am Mar 9, 2012 3:59am
Quoting lovejoy80
Another example of a converging wedge leading to a sharp drop...
If only they all worked out like this
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  • #1,132
  • Mar 9, 2012 11:02am Mar 9, 2012 11:02am
Quoting lovejoy80
This just goes to show that as long as the pair is liquid enough and the HTF S/R clear and precise enough then you're going to get the order flow that will cause a bounce here a lot more often than not.

SL below the bar on the left, damn obvious FLR - including spreads that's circa 1.55R.

I really don't know why more people don't trade pure price action, well I do - it's cos people don't truly understand the power of S/R's, the order flow and dynamics that exist and don't have the ability to think logically about what price is telling us -...
Update on the above setup -price broke the FLR and moved nicely to the next target.
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  • #1,133
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:32pm Mar 9, 2012 1:32pm
Mark,

Thanks for your charts with detailed explanation throughout this thread.This thread is pure gold. Everyday I am learning something new.

Thanks once again.

alifari
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,134
  • Mar 9, 2012 4:18pm Mar 9, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting alifari
Mark,

Thanks for your charts with detailed explanation throughout this thread.This thread is pure gold. Everyday I am learning something new.

Thanks once again.

alifari
Yes, the information in this thread is gold. Thank you Mark!
  • #1,135
  • Mar 9, 2012 4:25pm Mar 9, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I closed half of mine at the same location you have marked (it's a daily S/R). The other half I have my SL above the daily bar high at the moment but will reassess tomorrow.

I won't go leaving this position open going into NFP if price is near my SL - risk of slippage and increased spreads is just too great to be worth it.
Closed second part of my NU trade earlier.
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  • #1,136
  • Mar 9, 2012 4:29pm Mar 9, 2012 4:29pm
Few news based trades earlier after NFP - news really can produce some easy high probability setups, just like price action trading it's waiting for the right scenario and knowing how the market will react to it - and NFP figure better than the expected was only ever going to make UJ shoot up given it's current trend and CAD is always a strong performer in such a scenario too - especially against GBP + EUR when risk sentiment is strong.
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  • #1,137
  • Edited 11:06am Mar 10, 2012 5:23am | Edited 11:06am
Quoting lovejoy80
Suffered a partial loss on this setup last night.

I'd already decreased risk because price came fairly close to the area not long before. We got a small reaction to previous bar lows but my FLR was the higher level marked.

I moved my SL to under the 1HR bar low once price was hovering around and we were entering a quiet time of day - it duly got hit very soon after. Original SL was @ 0.9892 (entry @ 0.9909, exit @ 0.9901) so suffered a -0.47R loss.
This trade highlights a mistake that I see a lot of price action traders make.

We can see that price did eventually hit what would have been my FLR. Does this mean I cut the trade prematurely, should I have given price longer to show it's hand?

The answer to these is an absolute NO.

Price action trading is an expectation of price doing certain things under certain scenarios - thus if we are trading an S/R level then we are expecting the order-flow present to cause a definitive 'reaction'.

When it comes to FTB's we are expecting a very clear good momentum and almost instant reaction. Thus if price then falls and closes below our level (on the TF we are trading and higher TF's) after an 'initial' small reaction what does this tell us? It is telling us that the expected order-flow was not present and that sellers are still in control and ultimately that price has a much higher probability of falling further.

Since price action trading is mostly about probabilities, if the probability of a price going to an FLR has changed from a good one (i.e. before we entered the trade) to a poor one then logic dictates that this is no longer a trade we should be in with the same degree of risk - hence I look to cut my risk or reduce to zero (i.e. take a partial loss) when I a see a good sign that these probabilities have materially shifted.

Therefore, although on this occasion price did move up to my FLR, it reacted off a different level to what I was trading and as described above my decision to take a partial one was a correct one because it was based on price movements and associating probabilities of future price action with risk.

The reason I suffer very few total losses (i.e. 1R losses) is because I evaluate signs from price action that the probability of price moving to my FLR for the reasons I took the trade have shifted from a good probability to a much lower probability. If those probabilities have shifted then it is of course logical that the risk exposure on the trade should be reduced to reflect this change in probability.

A common trait amongst price actions traders on public forums is to trade with a mechanical mindset over a logical mindset - traders taking unnecessary losses because they don't understand how to think logically about price movements and what they mean when in a trade.

Another trait is traders having illogically wide SL's in order to satisfy themselves that they are unlikely to take a full loss and thus there average loss like mine is less than 1R. Of course trading like this is just covering up psychological / mindset issues which are in effect drastically limiting the potential reward for each trade - and at the end of the day risk/reward is the ONLY meaningful metric that matters - as it is directly linked to account % gain.
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  • #1,138
  • Mar 10, 2012 5:27am Mar 10, 2012 5:27am
Quoting alifari
Mark,

Thanks for your charts with detailed explanation throughout this thread.This thread is pure gold. Everyday I am learning something new.

Thanks once again.

alifari
@ Alifari, @ TJ - thanks guys.

Have a good weekend.
  • #1,139
  • Mar 10, 2012 5:56am Mar 10, 2012 5:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
@ Alifari, @ TJ - thanks guys.

Have a good weekend.
I second that, lots of great reading and material here!

Not a pair I like to trade, but the multiple confluence has my attention. Sunday open is a worry too, I dislike to trade in such low liquidity.

Lovejoy, is this something that interests you?

Have a great weekend all.
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  • #1,140
  • Mar 10, 2012 8:02am Mar 10, 2012 8:02am
took my full profit on NzdCad on Tuesday before it reversed.
Past week was fun reading & learning charts with so many economic data getting released,so did not trade mch this week but definitely worth the time spent..
here is something i have in my watchlist:
CadChf.:0.9235
notice that 0.9235/40 is a very good weekly level.liking the way its still holiding with a pinbar-ish look.

But i expect Cad to weaken in few days to come.
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