EurAnalysis

where did you go these day ? abducted by the alien ? huhuhu

Working bro....working...haha

From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

A Cartoon...

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
The time to move may well be coming.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...0024_thumb.jpg

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...03/2012_431768


Schaeuble says is not too hard on Greece




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...e_390_1201.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Wednesday that Greece's problems were of its own making and dismissed suggestions that Germany was being punitive towards a country that perhaps should not have joined the euro.

Speaking at the European University Institute in Florence, Schaeuble said he had, in the past, had very open discussions with the Greek government about whether it would be better for it to leave the euro zone, and the Greek authorities were 100 percent committed to doing what was necessary to remain members.

"We have shown a lot of solidarity with Greece,» Schaeuble said in response to some hostile questions from his audience about Germany's approach to Greece's debt crisis. «Everyone knows the real problems of Greek society are in Greece and not to be found abroad."

Faced by students in pig masks and holding banners saying «No Austerity» and «We are all PIIGS», a reference to peripheral euro zone countries Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, Schaeuble said it was «ridiculous» to say he wanted to punish Greece.

In Germany he often had to justify the billions of euros that his country was contributing to keeping Greece afloat, he said.
Greece is hoping to secure a new 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout package agreed last month with the EU, European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, but first needs to reach a debt restructuring deal on Thursday with private investors.

Schaeuble said it could be argued that Greece should not have joined the euro and that it was only by tough structural reforms that it could now hope to regain the competitiveness needed to prosper in the single currency.

He noted that even after recent cuts in Greece's minimum wage, salaries were no lower than in Spain and said that Greece's situation was «totally unique» in the euro zone.

In other remarks, Schaeuble said cheap 3-year loans to the financial system by the European Central Bank had «bought time» for the euro zone, but it could only resolve its problems definitively by closing the gulf in competitiveness between its 17 members.

He declined to comment on a decision by Spain to raise its budget deficit target for 2012, saying a collegial euro zone response was needed. [Reuters]

Critical S/D is something where I feel 95 % safe and 5 % risk. How are you brother?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-iif-says.html

Snippet:

“I do fully expect to be part of the collective action clause,” Patrick Armstrong, managing partner at Armstrong Investment Managers in London, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. He won’t voluntarily join in the swap because of the “minuscule” chance his bond maturing March 20 will be redeemed at face value.

Compelling holdouts to take part will likely trigger insurance contracts on the debt known as credit default swaps.

“I can’t see any scenario where people are forced to participate against their will and they aren’t triggered,” Armstrong said.
Turning Page

The swap provides “a moment for a real turning of the page,” that should allow Greece to “regain some economic vitality,” IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara, who led negotiations for private creditors in the debt-swap discussions, said in a telephone interview yesterday. The Washington, D.C.- based IIF represents more than 450 financial firms globally.

The members of the IIF creditor-investor committee who agreed to participate are Ageas, Allianz SE, Alpha Bank SA, Axa SA (CS), La Banque Postale, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Bank of Cyprus, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK), Credit Agricole SA, Credit Foncier, DekaBank Deutsche Girozentrale, Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Dexia SA, Emporiki Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank, Generali, Greylock, Groupama SA, HSBC Holdings Plc, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), KBC Groep NV, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, Marfin Popular Bank Plc, Metlife Inc., National Bank of Greece SA (ETE), Piraeus Bank SA, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Societe Generale SA and UniCredit SpA.
In Germany, Munich Re, DZ Bank AG and KfW Group also said they will take part in the exchange. FMS Wertmanagement, the bad bank created to prevent the collapse of German property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, and Erste Abwicklungsanstalt, the restructuring unit of state-owned lender WestLB AG, are both planning to take part in the exchange, according to people familiar with the matter. The two bad banks together hold as much as 9.8 billion euros in Greek debt.

fine fine...just create a skype and you can add me as well if you are missing me for have a dirty chat

K... PM you my skype ID later in the evening

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php...w?art_id=10641

Snippet:

The Profits Bubble

 

1. by Martin Hutchinson
2. March 05, 2012

</STRONG>With real interest rates having been negative for nearly four years, you would expect asset markets to be in a bubble. Debt markets, with long-term bonds offering yields well below the expected level of inflation, and commodities where gold is currently trading at twice its famous 1980 peak, certainly seem to exhibit bubble valuation symptoms. Yet equity markets in general do not appear excessively valued in terms of earnings -- the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is trading on only 14.9 times earnings, hardly a frightening level. When you look more closely however, you see clearly that the equities bubble rests not on valuation in terms of earnings, but on earnings themselves.

Share prices will sometime correct to a much lower level in real terms (or inflation will catch up while they remain static, as in 1966-82). But the correction will mostly take the form, not of lower price-earnings ratios, but of a massive squeeze in earnings (again, subject to inflation probably doing some of the work). Share prices will decline only modestly in terms of price-earnings ratios, but the decline in earnings will cause a massive overall decline.

It has to be remembered: the 4,000 which the Dow Jones index hit in February 1995, the day after Alan Greenspan gave his Congressional testimony that loosened monetary policy (as it turned out, for decades to come), is equivalent to only about 8,100 on the index today, when you adjust for the last 17 years’ increase in nominal U.S. gross domestic product. Since 1995’s 4,000 was at worst a middling Dow level, nearly 50% above the 1987 high, at today’s 13,000 the Dow is about 60% overvalued, and has been overvalued ever since 1995, except for a very brief period in February-March 2009. At the bottom of that recession, I had a modest crisis of conscience, in case the Bear outlook was about to become misguided for a prolonged period. I need not have worried; it has been appropriate for almost all the 11½ years I have been writing the column, and at least in the short term appears to be getting righter!
The poster child for the profits bubble is Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL). Apple’s valuation looks reasonable, at 15.4 times earnings, but the truth nobody seems willing to address in the middle of all this mania is that Apple cannot grow like this forever, or even maintain its current profits. The problem is not accounting shenanigans, but Apple’s 37.7% sales margin and 91.3% annualized return on equity in the quarter to December 31. Those are not just unsustainable, they are completely unsustainable. The fourth quarter saw the introduction of a successful new product, the iPhone 4S and the immense outpouring of very justified international emotion on the death of Steve Jobs.

The driving factor for most companies in the extraordinary level of corporate profits after tax becomes evident when you look at the same statistic’s 3.9% average over the decade of the 1980s. That was a period of high real interest rates that included a recession almost as severe as the recent unpleasantness, but when overall the unemployment rate was much lower than today. Thus in the 1980s, corporate profits were 18% below their long-term average, and barely more than half their level today. It becomes clear that the overall level of real interest rates plays a crucial role in the profit picture.

This is not surprising, especially in the post-1995 era when corporations, encouraged by very low real interest rates, have been more leveraged than at any time in history. Currently the debt/equity ratio of non-farm non-financial corporate business is around 60%, slightly above its 1990s peak and almost double its average level in 1960-85, before the new corporate finance revolution of the Modigliani-Miller Theorem took off. Since debt interest is tax-deductible, it represents very cheap capital in itself, so adding more debt should allow corporations to use more capital and thereby increase profits. Further, when debt represents 60% of equity, a decline of 4% in the real cost of debt (such as we have seen comparing its current level from the pre-1995 average) will add 2.4% to the return on equity.

At some point therefore, the end of Ben Bernanke’s misguided monetary policy (probably triggered by an unpleasant burst of inflation accompanied by insanely high oil and commodity prices) will cause corporate earnings to revert to their long-term average, losing their current 55% premium and returning stock prices even on their current fairly elevated P/E ratio to around the 1995-equivalent level of 8,100 on the Dow. Add to that a decline in the P/E ratio on the S&P 500 Index to 10 times, and you get a value on the S&P 500 Index of 589, equivalent to perhaps 5,500 on the Dow.

That’s without factoring in a renewed recession, which would presumably drive earnings below their equilibrium value and possibly drive stock prices below the 5,000 level on the Dow Jones Index.

CONCLUSION !!!

In terms of timing, this denouement depends entirely on the duration of Bernanke’s current monetary policy. Fourth quarter 2011 earnings for non-financial companies, with earnings season nearly over, are expected to have increased by 7.1%, considerably faster than the 4% rise in nominal GDP – pushing the key ratio of profits after tax to GDP up to roughly 7.7%, still further in nosebleed territory. Currently, estimates for first quarter 2012 earnings are coming down fairly rapidly, and have just crossed the zero line at which a decline from fourth quarter earnings is expected. Thus even with the economy continuing to expand modestly, and some few of the unemployed finding jobs, the short-term prognostications for earnings are pretty downbeat. If the bubble is not yet bursting, it may at least be close to maximum inflation.

It seems likely we are within months of a precipitous cliff at which interest rates rise, profits fall sharply and the stock market collapses. This will be accompanied by numerous commentators complaining that the stock market is not at bubble levels, in terms of valuation. But even in today’s recession tail-end, profits are truly bubble-level – and that is even more important.

(The Bear's Lair is a weekly column intended to appear each Monday, an appropriately gloomy day of the week. Its rationale is that the proportion of "sell" recommendations put out by Wall Street houses remains far below that of “buy” recommendations. Accordingly, investors have an excess of positive information and very little negative information. The column thus takes the ursine view of life and the market, in the hope that it may be usefully different from what investors see elsewhere.)

Martin Hutchinson is the author of "Great Conservatives" (Academica Press, 2005)—details can be found on the Web site www.greatconservatives.com—and co-author with Professor Kevin Dowd of “Alchemists of Loss” (Wiley – 2010).

Oil crude prices rallies. Unemployment dropped, consumer confidence improved and manufacturing expanded positive sentiment among investors that was caused by the positive news from Europe and the United States ... resulting E/U going at near Supply Zone.

PSI .. info..

Happy Holi bro...The bright colors of Holi may bright up the colors of your life and future

nice, did you take this pic?

we'reflitrting with UTL of down channel atm. I reckon this will break. Let see how far we push it, the higher the better.

2 Different broker M15 chart.....

Looks like SL hunting. Which broker?

Definitely don't have this wick with my broker m8

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in Asia as traders covered their shorts ahead of ECB rate decision later today and also Greek PSI deadline, offers at 1.3165 were filled and stops above 1.3170 were also tripped, however, more selling interests are still noted at 1.3200-10 and further out at 1.3240-50. On the downside, bids from various parties (including Asian sovereign names and Middle East accounts) are tipped at 1.3130-40 with mixtures of bids and stops in very good size reported at 1.3090-00 and also 1.3050-60.

GBP: The British pound tested this week's low at 1.5698 again yesterday and found decent demand there, cable then staged a strong rebound also as traders booked their profit on shorts ahead of BOE rate decision due at 12:00GMT, offers at 1.5755-65 were cleared and more selling interest from German names are still noted at 1.5790-00 as well as 1.5850. On the downside, buying interests from Asian names are reported at 1.5735-40 and good bids are still noted at 1.5695-00 with stops building up below 1.5690 and further out at 1.5650.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120308160990/

Sharing couple of my charts, just areas to look at, don't take it as holy grail.