I understand that everyone has their opinions about the price action for the past few hours but it is important to keep a wide look or larger picture. Also, understand that over the past 4 hours there has been little to no volitility so every news story or something a politician says will be highly magnified because the major market participants are quietly on the sidelines looking for some information of significance to world markets.
Also, it is important to keep a clear view of the market in 1 hour as it is the most used chart window by the larger market players because the 1hour timeframe represents a more stable view of market price action direction.
So, let us take a look at the current 1 hour chart.
First, we have price aciton in a well defined downchannel that was breeched 6 hours ago and has had weak to no follow through on the break of the downchannel. After 4 hours of whipsaws we finally have a candlestick that is completely outside the channel. That is significant because that mean price action has broken free of the trend and could point to a reversal and a rise in the EURUSD. However, this current hourly bar is of most significance. This is the retracement of the breakout and will tell us whether price action will continue up or will return the downchannel.
Therefore, if this current hourly candlstick closes back inside the downchannel then look for price action to seek the bottom of the downchannel at 1.30300. However, if the hourly bar closes outside the downchannel then one can say that the channel has been broken and we can look for some form of retracement of the entire drop from 1.34950 to either the 50, 61.8 or even 78.1 fib.
UPDATE 1:
Hourly candlestick closes at 1.31310 or just above down channel. I am now look to 5 min chart for a buy signal in Symphonie as price action fails to push back inside downchannel. With that said, I really have concerns about taking a BUY position because the volitility is weak and price action has been stuck in large whipsaws for the past 9 hours. This tells me to sit and wait for a clear directional break. Which way will it go?? No idea......But I let Symphonie guide me through this tough market time.
UPDATE 2: (second hour after clean bar break)
Price action reverses and pushes inside the downchannel. I believe that this move confirms that price action will continue on this downpath intil the bottom of the downchannel that now is 1.30275 on a 30% down angle that drops 15 pips per hour.
Also, it is important to keep a clear view of the market in 1 hour as it is the most used chart window by the larger market players because the 1hour timeframe represents a more stable view of market price action direction.
So, let us take a look at the current 1 hour chart.
First, we have price aciton in a well defined downchannel that was breeched 6 hours ago and has had weak to no follow through on the break of the downchannel. After 4 hours of whipsaws we finally have a candlestick that is completely outside the channel. That is significant because that mean price action has broken free of the trend and could point to a reversal and a rise in the EURUSD. However, this current hourly bar is of most significance. This is the retracement of the breakout and will tell us whether price action will continue up or will return the downchannel.
Therefore, if this current hourly candlstick closes back inside the downchannel then look for price action to seek the bottom of the downchannel at 1.30300. However, if the hourly bar closes outside the downchannel then one can say that the channel has been broken and we can look for some form of retracement of the entire drop from 1.34950 to either the 50, 61.8 or even 78.1 fib.
UPDATE 1:
Hourly candlestick closes at 1.31310 or just above down channel. I am now look to 5 min chart for a buy signal in Symphonie as price action fails to push back inside downchannel. With that said, I really have concerns about taking a BUY position because the volitility is weak and price action has been stuck in large whipsaws for the past 9 hours. This tells me to sit and wait for a clear directional break. Which way will it go?? No idea......But I let Symphonie guide me through this tough market time.
UPDATE 2: (second hour after clean bar break)
Price action reverses and pushes inside the downchannel. I believe that this move confirms that price action will continue on this downpath intil the bottom of the downchannel that now is 1.30275 on a 30% down angle that drops 15 pips per hour.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
