Attachments: LJ Forex Group

LJ Forex Group

#1,101
Mar 2, 2012 2:39pm Mar 2, 2012 2:39pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

But I'll be certainly watching these trades from today more closely

Taken a chunk of profit on the WS trade as price is very near support areas and nothing will keep equities down for long off late. Prefer to look for FX if wanting to short risk sentiment.

Got a few trades from last few days to update when get some time later 'today'.

BTW anyone who doesn't think awareness of news is important when trading intraday should go and look at the EG (FTB) and ECAD (technical confluence) setups that would ordinarily (in the absence of erratic...

Ignored

Took profit earlier on EG - the plan was to take profit at 0.8405 and reverse for a long but when price was moving erratically (Bernanke speech) I managed (just) to cancel my long order and it made sense to leave the short open.

Entry @ 0.8433, SL @ 0.8460, Exit @ 0.8330.
Result + 4.65R

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#1,102
Mar 2, 2012 2:50pm Mar 2, 2012 2:50pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

But I'll be certainly watching these trades from today more closely

Taken a chunk of profit on the WS trade as price is very near support areas and nothing will keep equities down for long off late. Prefer to look for FX if wanting to short risk sentiment.

Got a few trades from last few days to update when get some time later 'today'.

BTW anyone who doesn't think awareness of news is important when trading intraday should go and look at the EG (FTB) and ECAD (technical confluence) setups that would ordinarily (in the absence of erratic...

Ignored

Took 50% profit at the support area and the rest was taken out on the retrace. It's hard work with equities as they sure don't stay down for long but also they cant seem to sustain any gains either.

Entry @ 13024, SL @ 13060, Exit 50% @ 12909, remainder @ 12964.
Entry @ 12965, SL @ 13012, Exit @ 12961
Result + 2.5R

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#1,103
Mar 2, 2012 3:05pm Mar 2, 2012 3:05pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Last trade of the week on NU today:

1. We had the daily BEOB and as you can see my thoughts were to trade the breakout of 0.8340 area or take the retrace. As it happens price retraced back to the former channel, RN and S/R, this would have been a great entry but I missed it.

2. Thus the second option was to wait for a breakout of the 0.8340 area, I chose to play it more aggressive than usual and watched for the 1HR breakout (close below) and took the retrace touch on the next bar.

What gave me confidence to do this was the fact we'd had yet another rejection of the 0.8400-10 area (look at the daily TF) which indicates price is having a lot of trouble moving higher - combine that with the daily BEOB that formed after a big rejection of the only move above the 0.84 area and that says price is more likely to move down in the near term.

Entry @ 0.8336, SL @ 0.8358, Exit @ 0.8299
Result + 1.68R

This week has been a choppy week IMO, with price moving having some very low momentum periods combined with the big volatility we had on Wednesday. I certainly had more losing trades than I usually do in a normal week. I had 11 trades this week, 4 losers (notice how again I didn't have a total loser) with a total return of +15.7R.

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#1,104
Mar 2, 2012 5:57pm Mar 2, 2012 5:57pm

5.25
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Eeny, meeny, miny, moe | 819 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

I took a loss on AU yesterday.

Ignored

I was in this too for much the same reason, only my stop wasn't as tight and closed out for break even +. I too close trades before the weekend. I dislike weekend gaps and loss of momentum, but that's just me.

I found using the close of bars on D1 levels to have a very high degree of accuracy when it comes to defining levels. 1.0792 is therefore looking good for a breakout and FTB retest for shorts come next week.

Anyway, best to enjoy the weekend eh? Have a good one.

T

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#1,105
Mar 3, 2012 7:45am Mar 3, 2012 7:45am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting 5.25

Disliked

I was in this too for much the same reason, only my stop wasn't as tight and closed out for break even +. I too close trades before the weekend. I dislike weekend gaps and loss of momentum, but that's just me.

I found using the close of bars on D1 levels to have a very high degree of accuracy when it comes to defining levels. 1.0792 is therefore looking good for a breakout and FTB retest for shorts come next week.

Anyway, best to enjoy the weekend eh? Have a good one.

T

Ignored

I use both bar open/closes and highs/lows when it comes to defining HTF S/R levels - I just use what makes sense at the time and try and refine the level on the LTF's.

I agree - this is a good area to be watching for a trade setup next week. I'll be watching for a daily close below and the immediate retest or an intraday trade like described for the Bund setup (but the level has to be clear on the TF I'm trading the setup on).

As a bit of background this is how I have evaluated AU off late.

We can see that we've had a series of these breakout and retests on the daily TF as per the charts below.

- The first one was the best one technically for me, but it hit the area late on a Friday so was a pass.

- The second one hit a resistance area in forming the breakout bar which is always a negative point for me (doesn't necessarily make it a no trade, I just bear it in mind when evaluating the setup and determining my risk).

- The same happened with the third trade. There was of course the warning sign with the third setup in that price had previously not managed to stay up in this area for long - and with the breakout bar hitting resistance combined with the big BEOB the day before the breakout bar formed, it was certainly a setup to be cautious with.

All three setups are also in an area of tight congestion.

A standard textbook HTF breakout and immediate retest trade for me would be the NCAD trade I took.

Have a good weekend.

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#1,106
Mar 3, 2012 6:15pm Mar 3, 2012 6:15pm

5.25
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: Eeny, meeny, miny, moe | 819 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

A standard textbook HTF breakout and immediate retest trade for me would be the NCAD trade I took.

Have a good weekend.

Ignored

Thanks for the detailed analysis Lovejoy.

Would you consider another short on NCAD W1 a valid setup based on your criteria? Or the fact that this level has already been tested on the daily render it a pass?

Hope you don't mind me probing on this thread?

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#1,107
Mar 4, 2012 4:26pm Mar 4, 2012 4:26pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting 5.25

Disliked

Thanks for the detailed analysis Lovejoy.

Would you consider another short on NCAD W1 a valid setup based on your criteria? Or the fact that this level has already been tested on the daily render it a pass?

Hope you don't mind me probing on this thread?

Ignored

Yes I would consider it a valid setup.

The way I look at it is that we now have a weekly bias - we have a clear BEOB off a DT, thus I look at the 0.8275 area as an area that is much more likely to hold as resistance than not due to a) an FTB on this TF and b) the weekly bias. (note that the BEOB and thus breakout bar hit a support level in forming the bar which is not something I particularly like, but it would just be reflected in my risk level).

There is lot's of economic data out this week to be wary off too which could easily affect the underlying sentiment towards both currencies. Personally I am starting to have a slight bearish view on AUD and NZD - they certainly look weak against the USD IMO and given the fact that during risk aversion (the most likely reason for a fall in NU and AU) AUD and NZD fall harder than the generally range bound CAD I'm certainly watching the AUD and NZD closely across the board this week.

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#1,108
Mar 5, 2012 8:13am Mar 5, 2012 8:13am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Been rather busy this morning, but my first potential trade of the week turned into a pass.

The setup was an FTB to a LTF S/R level with double trend-line and fib confluence.

Now this is a LTF setup, thus it does not hold the same weight as a HTF S/R, but due to the level of technical confluence this was tradable for me - the fact it's not a HTF S/R is reflected in my risk for the trade.

I cancelled the order when it came to within 2 pips and fell below the RN. You can see my order on my live Oanda account and the conversation from the Trading Room explaining why I pulled the order.

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#1,109
Mar 5, 2012 8:19am Mar 5, 2012 8:19am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

This was a standard technical confluence trade setup from earlier.

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#1,110
Mar 5, 2012 8:21am Mar 5, 2012 8:21am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

Update: BUOB formed - gotta expect the 139.91 S/R area to hold as support now and the daily S/R @ 140.21 is in sight!

Ignored

If it didn't quite hit it on Friday, it sure did today!

If your trade management style wouldn't have allowed you to at least capture some partial profit @ 139.91 then IMO you need to look at how your managing your exits.

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#1,111
Mar 6, 2012 6:04pm Mar 6, 2012 6:04pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

I use both bar open/closes and highs/lows when it comes to defining HTF S/R levels - I just use what makes sense at the time and try and refine the level on the LTF's.

I agree - this is a good area to be watching for a trade setup next week. I'll be watching for a daily close below and the immediate retest or an intraday trade like described for the Bund setup (but the level has to be clear on the TF I'm trading the setup on).

As a bit of background this is how I have evaluated AU off late.

We can see that we've had a series of these breakout...

Ignored

Been a bit busy with non-trading stuff this week so not had much time to get involved. We never got the retracement on AU off the 1.0725 break, but we did off the 1.0685 level.

My SL would have gone above the bars marked with arrows.

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#1,112
Mar 6, 2012 6:08pm Mar 6, 2012 6:08pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Similar story on EU @ 1.3226 S/R (missing text was meant to say SL would have gone @ 1.3260).

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#1,113
Mar 6, 2012 6:13pm Mar 6, 2012 6:13pm

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

One hell of a break on YM today - a nice clear resistance area to be watching if price retraces (BTW, can you see why price was always likely to break that 12858 support level?)

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#1,114
Edited 12:50am Mar 7, 2012 12:32am | Edited 12:50am

miracle16
| Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Trader | 52 Posts

Hi LJ

can u explain why it was more likely to break support?
the way i see it as you've highlighted.
price was trading within the box.
But the long wicks below showed decent support below.
Also its been knocking on the door of 13000 for some time.
I do see the descending trendline for the past few days, a signal that buying has tapered.

I would see it as price could've gone either way. but yesterday's candle clearly showed sellers overwhelmed buyers.

I'm still looking at a long trade though. 12700 levels seem like a good support from nov 2011 levels.
for your comments

tks.

#1,115
Mar 7, 2012 4:13am Mar 7, 2012 4:13am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting miracle16

Disliked

Hi LJ

can u explain why it was more likely to break support?
the way i see it as you've highlighted.
price was trading within the box.
But the long wicks below showed decent support below.
Also its been knocking on the door of 13000 for some time.
I do see the descending trendline for the past few days, a signal that buying has tapered.

I would see it as price could've gone either way. but yesterday's candle clearly showed sellers overwhelmed buyers.

I'm still looking at a long trade though. 12700 levels seem like a good support from...

Ignored

Comments on chart.

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#1,116
Mar 7, 2012 4:26am Mar 7, 2012 4:26am

lovejoy80
| Commercial User | Joined Feb 2008 | 4,633 Posts

Quoting lovejoy80

Disliked

Comments on chart.

Ignored

You mentioned the 12720 level being good support - that's definitely the case and how can we use that knowledge ... we can use this together with knowledge of risk sentiment correlations to take a trade when price is sitting at HTF's on NU and NJ - the YM location if confluence to the NJ and NU location and suggests with very good probability that price will start to retrace from here - especially after 3 days of strong down moves (see chart above what I mean by this).

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