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  • #6,041
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:59am Mar 5, 2012 1:59am
Hi all, looks like we are at the bottom of a channel here + some bullish divergence.

Lets see what happens with price of coarse, thinking long here.
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  • #6,042
  • Edited 2:27am Mar 5, 2012 2:02am | Edited 2:27am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi kokopelli,

You make a very good start to begin at post#1 and work slowly through all the pages and posts. That's the approach and a very a positive attitude. I am sure you will trade well and get even better going forward from now...
Dear Emmanuel,

Many thanks for the kind words and well wishes!!!

I've been trading (via technical analysis) seriously and at high frequency for almost 2 years now (in commodities). However, I'm new to spot forex and brand new to the MT4 platform.

At this moment, I'm not sure if the MT4 is a "good thing" for me. IMO, MT4 seems to be a platform where I, if not careful, could easily fall head over heels into its indicator abyss because there are just so many to chose from and to "enhance." Right now I'm just trading straight through Onada using its fxTrade web-base platform even though I have downloaded the MT4 on computer.

I'm strictly a PA TREND trader using 15min and 4hr charts with EMAs, and hand-drawn S&R and TLs. The only indicator I use is the RSI. I don't use it to enter, but once I'm already in a position that is profitable, I sometimes use the RSI to continue to hold on to that position because I tend to exit too early. Throughout my short trading life, I've always used bar charts and never candlesticks, let alone Heikin Ashi, although I'm slightly familiar with both. I'm drawn to the X-Man's method because it's in line with what I've been doing with PA, and the TDI seems to be a variation of my RSI. I will definitely incorporate some of the methods in this thread into my trading arsenal!!!

Why U/J? It's one of the 6 major pairs that I've been studying for the last 12+ months while trading commodity futures.

At this very moment, I'm having a $.43 profit on the U/J and have no intention of liquidating the position. I might just switch from the 15min chart to the 4hr chart and hang on to this and ride it, turning it from a profitable intraday trade into a profitable swing trade if PA continues to go my way.

3AM EST - looks like the Swissy is resting side-way in preparation for either a leg up or a leg down. I'm looking for it to decisively breakout of the 9150 level or breakdown from the 9120 level.



Edit: Still in the "your post is being reviewed" mode - how many posts do I need before my post show up immediately on the thread???
  • #6,043
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:04am Mar 5, 2012 2:04am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
During the backtest of last 3 months I noticed a high risk of false Asian range break by the first London candle.
Did anyone noticed the same?
I seem to recall X-Man said he prefers to trade the second London candle and the first NY candle.

just alittle confused with the breakout option, during the 1st two candles of the LO, its still considered Asian session as the asian session interlaps the london session. so is the price breaks out during those 2 candles, could we really consider it a break out. Or do we wait for the asian session to completely end before looking for the breakout?
  • #6,044
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:11am Mar 5, 2012 2:11am
Guys, nice Head & Shoulders pattern on NZD/USD H4, neckline got re-traced and now heading downwards, 1stTP is 200 EMA next TP is the 76.4 FIB...

Guys just a concensus about ECN brokers, I just opened an ECN account and it's my first time to open such. Everything's okay so far with execution, but the limit orders are a bit a question though, because I can only open a limit order which is 100 pips away from current market price....is it the same with you guys who have ECN accounts?

Thank you for anyone responding....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,045
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:21am Mar 5, 2012 2:21am
Quoting Awin
Guys, nice Head & Shoulders pattern on NZD/USD H4, neckline got re-traced and now heading downwards, 1stTP is 200 EMA next TP is the 76.4 FIB...

Hi Awin.

great trade with PA H&S setup.
although what looks like s support zone near 0.8245, may not hold with stronger sellers jumping into this.
technically, this trade has potential loking at D1 and W1 to run down.
I see if it breaks 0.8258 closing today with be good confirmation sign for further flow down.

Trade management is now key to profits.

Good Trading !
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,046
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:22am Mar 5, 2012 2:22am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Usually I do my trade planning over the weekend before NY open. Living in GMT+8 time zone give me a head start.
I will observe how NY open and I use GMT+0 as my chart baseline no matter which broker server data feed I get from. I treat the Sunday candles as one separate day and Tokyo open on Monday as the new day of the week. I stick to this for consistency for all my trading systems. Some people argue that Sunday open must the the start of the week, etc. It is a matter of preference and must be taken into consideration when we design...
hi Emmanuel,,, insightful posts ! Please can you share your insght into your longterm 3-4 day swing trades and also where can I find (read up) on a good account management system...thanks!
  • #6,047
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:27am Mar 5, 2012 2:27am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Awin.

great trade with PA H&S setup.
although what looks like s support zone near 0.8245, may not hold with stronger sellers jumping into this.
technically, this trade has potential loking at D1 and W1 to run down.
I see if it breaks 0.8258 closing today with be good confirmation sign for further flow down.

Trade management is now key to profits.

Good Trading !
Hi Emmanuel my friend,

as usual you are right, there is S1 at that level you mentioned and right now as I am typing this my TP1 just got hit and 200 EMA got broken, going to TP2 now for the 76.4 FIB ...

very, very insightful feedback my friend...

my friend, don't think you've escaped me with that cup of coffee...i'm still holding you on that one, but of course, that will be on me my friend....

Happy hunting today my friend!
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,048
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:29am Mar 5, 2012 2:29am
Quoting jasonnevis
Hi all, looks like we are at the bottom of a channel here + some bullish divergence.

Lets see what happens with price of coarse, thinking long here.
Nice analysis , I was looking at the very same thing. the bulls want to come out to play
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #6,049
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:38am Mar 5, 2012 2:38am
Quoting Awin
Guys, nice Head & Shoulders pattern on NZD/USD H4, neckline got re-traced and now heading downwards, 1stTP is 200 EMA next TP is the 76.4 FIB...

Guys just a concensus about ECN brokers, I just opened an ECN account and it's my first time to open such. Everything's okay so far with execution, but the limit orders are a bit a question though, because I can only open a limit order which is 100 pips away from current market price....is it the same with you guys who have ECN accounts?

Thank you for anyone responding....
TP2 76.4 FIB just got hit, next stop, resistance @ 0.8210
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,050
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:42am Mar 5, 2012 2:42am
Quoting only20gp
just alittle confused with the breakout option, during the 1st two candles of the LO, its still considered Asian session as the asian session interlaps the london session. so is the price breaks out during those 2 candles, could we really consider it a break out. Or do we wait for the asian session to completely end before looking for the breakout?
As soon as LO opens then you can trade the break out , you dont have to wait until the asian session closes. Our time is the entire London session.
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #6,051
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:43am Mar 5, 2012 2:43am
Quoting X-Man
Nice analysis , I was looking at the very same thing. the bulls want to come out to play
Thanks Xman, hope everyone plays nice!

Below is the longer view short term channel on h1, but certainly there is a even longer channel on the daily going downward, if thats the way it will continue....
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  • #6,052
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:43am Mar 5, 2012 2:43am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi ljin,

few things you must know how I trade.
- I have my Big Picture in my view all the time.
- I look at D1 every day opening,
- I look at H4 charts all the time.... every 4 -hours, seldom sleep more than that in 4-h sleeping slots. trader's life sounds miserable saying this.
- I time my trade entry using H1.
- for intraday, I use the daily pivots and weekly pivots, no EMAs although these are useful to many traders,
-

for todays trade, H4 'trend' or flow is down. So the higher probability is continuation. Asian stock makrt bullish...
with regards to your multi-lot strategy what percentage of your intraday trading portfolio does this take ...?
  • #6,053
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:49am Mar 5, 2012 2:49am
Quoting X-Man
Nice analysis , I was looking at the very same thing. the bulls want to come out to play
glad to see that i am not the only one that waiting for long.
but what i saw is bullish divergence on h1. not h4 though. am i right to say that in h1 it is a divergence? price making lower low and tdi show higher low
  • #6,054
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:56am Mar 5, 2012 2:56am
Guys just a concensus about ECN brokers, I just opened an ECN account and it's my first time to open such. Everything's okay so far with execution, but the limit orders are a bit a question though, because I can only open a limit order which is 100 pips away from current market price....is it the same with you guys who have ECN accounts?
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,055
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:01am Mar 5, 2012 3:01am
any one take short in usd/chf 4h ?
  • #6,056
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:04am Mar 5, 2012 3:04am
Price is now near 61.8% fib of move up
  • #6,057
  • Edited 3:31am Mar 5, 2012 3:04am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting X-Man
Nice analysis , I was looking at the very same thing. the bulls want to come out to play
Interesting!!! I see and understand the analysis on the 4-hr chart, but the trend-trader in me has a hard time grasping and accepting this counter-trend thesis. As a trend guy, picking turning points just doesn't come naturally for me. We'll see!!!

Good luck!!!
  • #6,058
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:15am Mar 5, 2012 3:15am
Quoting HITMAN
any one take short in usd/chf 4h ?
Not yet, but i'm looking hard at it, what's holding me back is it just crossed the 200. Will wait a while.
  • #6,059
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:25am Mar 5, 2012 3:25am
Awin
Quote
Guys just a concensus about ECN brokers, I just opened an ECN account and it's my first time to open such. Everything's okay so far with execution, but the limit orders are a bit a question though, because I can only open a limit order which is 100 pips away from current market price....is it the same with you guys who have ECN accounts?

Get a different broker. You should be able to place a pending or limit order with no pip distance requirement.

Furthermore, your chart shows a spread of 15 pips on your NZD/USD. This should be 4 pips at the most and 3 average.

There are many that are much more competitive than the one you are currently using. Shop around.

Good luck.

dcginc
  • #6,060
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:30am Mar 5, 2012 3:30am
Copper, gold, silver, oil, ES, NQ are dying. Do you guys incorporate any of the commodity charts/data into your fx technical analysis???
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