EurAnalysis

It is tempting but I expect a bit of a bounce now up to around 3225/30 area
Mind you, it may just collapse from here. Who the heck knows any more. LOL Anyway, I'm still holding my 3248 short.

By Yigal Grayeff and the Market Currents team
Sara Lee unit looks to sell $4.6B of shares in Dutch IPO. DE International, Sara Lee's (SLE) coffee and tea business, intends to sell up to $4.6B of shares in its IPO on the Amsterdam stock exchange, which it plans to undertake by mid-2012. Following the spin-off, Sara Lee shareholders will receive a $3 special dividend, and the company expects to release nearly $700M of deferred tax liabilities.
Japan deflation remains deeply rooted. Japanese January core CPI fell 0.1% on year vs. -0.1% in December and -0.2% expected, with the decline the fourth in a row. "The data reconfirm Japan’s deflation is deeply rooted," JP Morgan economist Masamichi Adachi said. Still, at least unemployment remains under control. While the jobless rate rose to 4.6% from 4.5% in December and topped expectations, the government attributed the increase to more new jobseekers entering the market.
Chu confident that world can make up for lost Iranian oil. There's enough spare capacity to make up for any Iranian oil that's lost to sanctions, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu said yesterday. That's despite EIA data that shows it would be a close run thing. President Obama has until the end of the month to make a final determination on whether Chu is correct. Meanwhile, oil futures were -0.5% premarket as the market bought into a Saudi denial of a reported pipeline explosion in its Eastern province.
Investors seek to stop Empire State IPO. Investors in Empire State Realty Trust (ESB), the owner of the namesake building, are suing to halt the company's planned IPO, claiming the offering only benefits the Malkin Family, which controls the trust. The current IPO terms include a dual-class share structure in which the Malkins would receive Class B shares that are worth 50 votes a share.
EU leaders sign fiscal compact. Twenty-five of 27 EU leaders signed the new EU fiscal treaty - ominously titled Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination & Governance in the Economic & Monetary Union - at today's summit. Left out were the U.K. and the Czech Republic. The treaty now goes to the various parliaments for their approval.
ECB money goes round in circles. Commercial banks parked a record €777B ($1.03T) with the ECB overnight, with the paltry 0.25% interest rate they received below the 1% they're paying on the €1.2T in LTRO loans they've taken, and the almost 1% they could get on the open market. The deposits at the ECB highlight the continued lack of trust between European banks.
Barclays borrows €8.2B of cheap loans from ECB. Barclays (BCS) tapped LTRO II for €8.2B, an unexpected move as it had indicated it had no plans to take any funds and it didn't borrow any cash at the previous offer in December. Barclays intends to use the money to manage funding gaps in Spain and Portugal.
Deutsche Bank board rejects €800M settlement over Kirch. Deutsche Bank's (DB) board has refused to approve a proposed €800M settlement over decade-old claims that a former CEO helped drive German media company Kirch Group into bankruptcy. The decision is a rebuke to current CEO Josef Ackermann, who brokered the deal, and means litigation that has already cost the two sides around €100M will continue.
Peugeot may eventually build GM cars. GM (GM) cars may be assembled at Peugeot's (PEUGY.PK) factories as part of the companies' alliance, although it wouldn't occur before 2016, Peugeot CEO Philippe Varin said today. Following much criticism of the deal, GM Vice Chairman Stephen Girsky defended it as being a low-risk venture that could lead to a broader agreement later.
Turbulence to continue for shipping industry. The shipping industry is going to face a "crisis" year in 2012, Andrew Broomhead, the CFO of Hong Kong's largest operator of dry-bulk vessels, Pacific Basin, has warned. The industry must grapple with a lack of funding, an oversupply of ships and freight rates so poor that the Baltic Dry Index is already -56% YTD.
BofA denies plans to impose new fees. Bank of America (BAC) has denied reports that it is testing plans to charge customers for keeping a checking account. "Media reports this morning provided inaccurate information. [BofA] is not planning to increase checking account fees with our existing customers," the bank said yesterday. Perhaps Senator Dick Durbin, one of the bank's harshest critics, will be satisfied.
Gross promotes new "mom-and-pop" ETF. Bill Gross has taken to the airwaves to pump his new and highly anticipated Total Return ETF (TRXT), which launched yesterday. One advantage of the "mom-and-pop" type of offering from Pimco, he said, is that the fund yields 3.5% as opposed to the 2% yields on funds indexed to the market.

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan +0.7% to 9777. Hong Kong +0.8% to 21562. China +1.4% to 2461. India +0.3% to 17637.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris flat. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%. Crude -0.5% to $108.29. Gold -0.2% to $1718.40.

Friday's economic calendar:
8:30 ISM New York Business Index
8:00 PM Fed's Bullard: 'The U.S. Economy in the Aftermath of the Financial Crisis'

if you are dreaming, then you are psychic because the USDX just broke channel resistance.

Is it 4H mate ? here the daily from FXstreet and my current view,
falling wedge formation with daily bullish engulf + Doji breaking up so I am assume the pressure up its quite strong...

http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/...e-greek-delays

Snippet:

EUR/USD Losing Ground on More Greek Delays

 

1. Posted by Yohay Elam on March 2, 2012 at 8:40am
2. View Blog

Euro dollar continues losing ground and is dipping below another support line. The Eurogroup delayed the final decision about the second bailout to Greece for another week, after the bond swap is completed and a “final assessment” is made. The deadline for a default is getting closer, and it seems that Greece is pushed to the edge of the cliff. The credit event call was diverted for now, but it’s not the end of the story. How will this week end? EU Leaders are meeting in Brussels, but the Greek issue is officially off the agenda for today. We could still hear news of all sorts.
Here’s an update on technicals, fundamentals and what’s going on in the markets.
EUR/USD Technicals

1. Asian session: Relaxed session after the Eurogroup sees tight range trading. The dip began in the European session.
2. Current range: 1.3212 to 1.3280.http://forexcrunch.wpengine.netdna-c...12-400x224.png

1. Further levels in both directions: Below: 1.3212, 1.3145, 1.3060, 1.3060, 1.2945, 1.2873 and 1.2760.
2. Above: 1.3280, 1.333, 1.3430, 1.3486, 1.3550, 1.3615, 1.37, 1.38 and 1.3950.
3. 1.3280 provided good support so far. A confirmation of the break is awaited.
4. 1.3333 is a tight spot.

Euro/Dollar dipping lower - click on the graph to enlarge.
EUR/USD Fundamentals

1. 7:00 German Retail Sales. Exp. +0.5%. Actual -1.6%. Disappointing. Germany also saw good figures earlier in the week.
2. 10:00 Euro-zone PPI. Exp. +0.6%.

For more events later in the week, see the Euro to dollar forecast
EUR/USD Sentiment – Details of hurdles

1. Greek bailout delayed: Euro-zone finance ministers noted that Greece made a lot of progress. Nevertheless, they are waiting for the bond swap to finish and for a “final assessment”. The bond swap is planned to end on March 8th, with the final approval on March 9th or 12th. The March 20th deadline is getting too close. Here are 5 hurdles that could further delay or cancel the bailout.
2. ISDA Doesn’t Call Default: The international body responsible for deciding if there was a default or not decided not to declare a credit event for now. They left the door open to more questions and a different decision, and noted the “evolving situation” in Greece.
3. German ministers wants Greece to go: In a passive aggressive move, German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble said that he will respect countries who want to leave. Greece doesn’t want to leave, but there’s a growing notion that it is pushed to declare bankruptcy. This joins the words of Hans-Peter Friedrich that said he would advise Greece to leave the euro-zone and said that Greece should be “made an offer it can’t refuse” to leave.

IMF / Germany battle over contribution: The International Monetary Fund, which is massive funding from the US, is expected to provide a much smaller contribution to the second bailout. Together with the US, Japan, China and others, they want to see more willingness from Germany to contribute. In turn, Merkel has domestic troubles around this.
Ben Bernanke acknowledged improving employment: The vast majority of Bernanke’s testimony was dovish, seeing many risks in the US. Nevertheless, he said that the improvement in employment surprised him. This was enough to boost the dollar, big time. Chances for QE3 in March 13th remain low..
ECB LTRO II: Around 800 European banks grabbed nearly 530 billion euros. They are now better equipped for a crash and European leaders can feel safe and let go of Greece. The side effect was that banks accumulated sovereign bonds as collateral for the operation. Without LTRO 3 in sight, Portuguese bonds sold off immediately after LTRO 2. The ECB found itself intervening after two quiet weeks.
German court hurdle: A German court might delay the euro-zone aid package by forcing a different procedure in parliament. Given past experience, this hurdle will likely be overcome.
Plan B still possible: Despite the deal, things, such as the IMF contribution or more Greek misses, could still go wrong. There are reports about plans made in Germany and the US for a Greek bankruptcy on March 23rd, when Athens will raise a white flag and a bank holiday will be announced.








Join our Facebook Page!

I have a potential pull back to the same level PT. Also, don't forget the round number support just below at 1.3200

What do I mean? Well, take a look at this chart. It shows the rate of expansion in the European Central Bank's balance sheet over the past couple of years. You can see it has more than DOUBLED to 2.67 trillion euros from 1.3 trillion. And this is from a central bank that claims it's not printing money, mind you!

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2358/chart1.gif
Anyone expecting a change of course will likely be disappointed too. Just this week alone, the ECB doled out ANOTHER record 529.5 billion euros for three years as part of its second Long-Term Refinance Operation (LTRO). A whopping 800 piggy banks lined up at the ECB trough for the virtually free cash, up from the 523 that borrowed 489 billion euros at the December LTRO.
The Bank of Japan and The Bank of England are also flooding their markets with newly printed cash. And this week, in comments before Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also signaled he has no intention of stemming the flood of easy money coming from his central bank. Specifically, he said ...

"With the unemployment rate elevated and the inflation outlook subdued, the committee judges that sustaining a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy is consistent with promoting both objectives."

That pretty much ensures the 218 percent explosion in the Fed's balance sheet that we've seen already is just a start!

okay we broke S3 3211
Now I have my eye on 3181 (last week's low)
If we break that, then we have weekly bearish engulf and it's down to 3125 from there (after some semblance of a pullback)

30 minutes to the next 4H candles
Watch Sick UJ as measurement
Breaking up 81.70 - RISK OFF

3125 would be nice friday gift

I here by confirm it is time for short.

We took a quick peek below 3211 but didn't close below it yet. USDX still holding 79.300 and moving up as I write. I'd really like to see a confirmation candle on the M15 chart below 3211 to say we're heading south.

I hitted submit before I uploaded attachments...

We've bottomed out but its still holding.

Patience Grasshopper

3205 is now bottom. We've tried 3 times now to go below it and we've still not posted a confirmation candle below 3211.

Man it's hard sitting on your hands and typing at the same time

Hmmmm


EUR/USD consolidates just above 1.3200 amid vague whispers that there might be a 1.3200/1.3500 DNT (double no-touch) option in play.

forexlive ? china defend this level and that level and break and break
you are more accurate than forexlive mate