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  • #23,221
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:45am Mar 1, 2012 3:45am
Quoting knoholygrail
Your comments are welcome.
I think you mean what happens the dollar index affects gold? Gold doesn't have the power to strengthen or weaken the dollar moreso the dollar weakening or strengthening has the power to change all commodities as they're denominated in dollars
  • #23,222
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:52am Mar 1, 2012 3:52am
Quoting knoholygrail
Your comments are welcome.
As does the equity markets and the 50-100 USD crosses.

But really, the USD may affect gold, but gold does not really affect the USD. The market is just too small.

In fact, I could make an excellent argument for showing the AUD/CAD here as well.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #23,223
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:22am Mar 1, 2012 4:22am
Quoting CathS
Regardless of what it really was, that sensible comment made me wait until today to confirm a gold trade I was going to enter, so thankyou very much!

Other threads could do with a voice of reason like this (& like is regularly found on this thread), on others, some traders tend to get overly enthusiastic when things are going their way, and its difficult for newbies not to get caught up in it and then lose $ on nights like last night.

So thanks again, you have given me something else to think about at month end, and as far as I'm concerned...
Well in that case you're quite welcome Cath. Many green pips to you this month. It should be quite interesting to see if the G-Spot disease spreads to P-Spot. In the meantime, I am still waiting with my giant hammer to start hitting that sell button on the Euro. Let's see how this week finishes.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,224
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:23am Mar 1, 2012 4:23am
Quoting RodMca
I think you mean what happens the dollar index affects gold? Gold doesn't have the power to strengthen or weaken the dollar moreso the dollar weakening or strengthening has the power to change all commodities as they're denominated in dollars
Quoting AaronWard
As does the equity markets and the 50-100 USD crosses.

But really, the USD may affect gold, but gold does not really affect the USD. The market is just too small.

In fact, I could make an excellent argument for showing the AUD/CAD here as well.
Quite right my friends. The USD value pretty much dominates everything else. Yesterday at 3pm GMT was a perfect example.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,225
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:28am Mar 1, 2012 4:28am
Quoting PipTrapper
Quite right my friends. The USD value pretty much dominates everything else. Yesterday at 3pm GMT was a perfect example.
The thing that always puzzles me is that most of the time it seems like equities dominate USD despite being a much smaller market. Of course, they are really just two sides of the same coin, the risk on/off complex but it still seems like equities are leading. Perhaps it is an optical illusion.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #23,226
  • Edited 4:44am Mar 1, 2012 4:29am | Edited 4:44am
Quoting RodMca
I think you mean what happens the dollar index affects gold? Gold doesn't have the power to strengthen or weaken the dollar moreso the dollar weakening or strengthening has the power to change all commodities as they're denominated in dollars
I use the following logic or view if you cannot put it as logic. My view is that Gold is manipulated. There is much documented support for that view and people such as Sinclair, Willie, Sprott, GATA and many others have that view. Yesterday there was NO LOGICAL reason for Gold to move that much QE or NO QE. The article that I linked to was related to that view. Once Gold sold off the money from the Gold moved to other Asset Classes.

The point of my reply is not to show anything other than my views on this.

Which came first the Chicken or The EGG ?

Why did the Chicken Cross The Street ?

Have a great day and do not miss Bernake Part Two starting at 10:00 AM.

Let's see what he has in store for the market today. We also had the LTRO event yesterday so there were many factors in play.

How did the First Human arrive without the Egg ? So many questions and never enough answers. I see the Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds is now at .30% and the 10 Year is at 2.02% with the Spread at 172 Basis Points.

We can see that the 10 Year has the movements as the Yield went down at first and now is OVER 2.00% again so they are selling off and the funds go into other Asset Classes. See where they go and then you have an edge. Gold went down yet the CAD got stronger. Why because the US Economy seems to be getting better. There are many reasons for movements in currencies.

EUR/JPY is at 1.0803 now and IF it goes down to 1.0750 then EUR/USD should go down to UNDER 1.3300. USD/JPY is at 81.02 now and will it go below 80.00 again as money is brought home for Japan Year End in March ?

More Questions !!!

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Yesterday in Gold and Silver
In Far East and early London trading yesterday, both attempts by gold to break above the $1,790 spot price...and head for $1,800...got sold off immediately. By the time that the Comex opened in New York on Wednesday morning, the gold price was basically unchanged from Tuesday's close...and this state of affairs lasted until the London p.m. gold fix at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time...3:00 p.m. in London.
Then the hammer fell, as the engineered price smash began. Sell stops were hit at various strike prices...and 'da boyz' pulled their bids along the way. This happened at five separate times. The last of those engineered price declines came at 3:30 p.m. Eastern in the very thinly traded New York Access Market, which took out the leveraged longs at the $1,700 strike price.
The gold price pretty much traded sideways from there. Gold closed at $1,696.70 spot...down a whopping $87.20 on the day. Net volume was off the charts at 320,000 contracts. Gold's intraday price swing in New York was an eye-watering $101.60.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...52-469x297.gif

But, as always, silver was the metal 'da boyz' were really after...and they got it good. The silver spent most of the Far East and London trading day a respectable amount above the $37.00 spot mark. Then, around 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, silver rallied about 50 cents right up until the London p.m. gold fix thirty minutes later...and the rest, as they say, is history.
Silver's intraday price move was $3.94...which works out to a decline of 10.7% from it's high of the day, which was $37.62 spot. In a 15-minute interval between about 11:16 a.m. and 11:31 a.m. in New York..the silver price 'fell' about $2.25 cents...as the sell stops got hit...and the Commercial traders collusively pulled their bids.
  • #23,227
  • Edited 4:34am Mar 1, 2012 4:30am | Edited 4:34am
An interesting read on how there is a definate corrolation between commodities and certain currencies.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1nrqKztgu

ADD: To prove the article's point, look at the USD/CAD yesterday and look at the POC (Price of Crude). Dip at 10:00 am on crude and USD/CAD falls (because of the dollar index you'll argue), but then look at 11:30am and how crude regains all of its losses almost to the pip and USD/CAD does the same. However, dollar index (and thus EUR/USD) does not follow suit.
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #23,228
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:38am Mar 1, 2012 4:38am
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...03/2012_430605

Snippet:


Eurozone puts Greece's efforts under microscope




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...o_390_0908.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
Eurozone finance ministers will run the rule over Greece's accounts again on Thursday but aren't ready to sign off yet on a second, 130-billion-euro bailout program.
The Greek parliament approved an extension of pharmacy opening hours and cuts to spending on drugs in a late-night session on Wednesday, the final significant element in a package of three dozen «prior actions» euro zone countries had demanded before more aid is provided.

Ministers will gather in Brussels from 1300 GMT to assess Greece's efforts. But they are not expected to fully sign off on the bailout program until later in March, once a restructuring of Greece's private sector debt is complete, officials said.

"Today is just going to be a stock-taking exercise -- looking at whether Greece has done enough and making sure the pieces are in place,» said a eurozone official involved in preparing documents for the meeting.

"So far the indications are that Greece has done enough. But it's going to be a while before the ministers sign off and any money is disbursed."
Finance ministers are scheduled to meet again on March 12, the first date that they could give final approval for the package, which ultimately aims to cut Greece's debt to just over 120 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020, from 160 percent now.

That meeting is also expected to see a discussion on combining the eurozone's crisis-fighting firewalls, the 250 billion euros (209 billion pounds) left in the temporary EFSF bailout fund and the 500 billion euro permanent ESM facility.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of eurozone finance ministers, said on Wednesday Greece would probably get its first payment from the second package by March 20 at the latest, as long as Athens meets all the conditions first.
  • #23,229
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:55am Mar 1, 2012 4:55am
Quoting Cgb
An interesting read on how there is a definate corrolation between commodities and certain currencies.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...#axzz1nrqKztgu

ADD: To prove the article's point, look at the USD/CAD yesterday and look at the POC (Price of Crude). Dip at 10:00 am on crude and USD/CAD falls (because of the dollar index you'll argue), but then look at 11:30am and how crude regains all of its losses almost to the pip and USD/CAD does the same. However, dollar index (and thus EUR/USD) does...
That's why the AUD and the CAD are considered commodity currencies... plus the fact that their economies are dominated by Energy and other natural resources. So it is quite obvious that if the price of oil goes down, so does the CAD. AUD is a bit different coz metals also affect the price. However, yesterday was about the USD so the correlation was turned over on its head.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,230
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:59am Mar 1, 2012 4:59am
Derivatives body ISDA says credit event has not occurred for Greece, CDS contracts not triggered


Of course they would vote that way. Had they declared it a credit event and the CDS got triggered, it would cost them alot of money. Corruption at its best.

ADD:

“The EMEA DC noted, however, that the situation in the Hellenic Republic is still evolving and today’s EMEA DC decisions do not affect the right or ability of market participants to submit further questions to the EMEA DC relating to the Hellenic Republic nor is it an expression of the EMEA DC’s view as to whether a Credit Event could occur at a later date, in each case, as further facts come to light.”
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,231
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:07am Mar 1, 2012 5:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
That's why the AUD and the CAD are considered commodity currencies... plus the fact that their economies are dominated by Energy and other natural resources. So it is quite obvious that if the price of oil goes down, so does the CAD. AUD is a bit different coz metals also affect the price. However, yesterday was about the USD so the correlation was turned over on its head.
That's my point PT. It kills me when I see people saying that commodities do not affect currencies. Not all of them are directly related to a certain commodity(ies), but the correlation should not be ignored.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #23,232
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:31am Mar 1, 2012 5:31am
Quoting Cgb
That's my point PT. It kills me when I see people saying that commodities do not affect currencies. Not all of them are directly related to a certain commodity(ies), but the correlation should not be ignored.

Cheers!
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,233
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:34am Mar 1, 2012 5:34am
Jobless claims 351K

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: events.jpg Size: 44 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,234
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:42am Mar 1, 2012 5:42am
We're nearing my 1.3285 first TP level where 1/2 will be sold on my short from yesterday. Next stop is 1.3213 which is the bottom of my 4 hour trend channel.

Cheers!
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #23,235
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:43am Mar 1, 2012 5:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
Yes 1.35 seems to have lots of defense at 1.3480
We shall see what happens in NY trading.
I would love for the Euro to drop below 1.33 so that I can confirm reversal (or continuation of bear trend). However, technicals ar pointing at 1.3530/50 area right now. I know they don't mean much but that is all I have to go by for today. If the sideways move continues for the next few days, then the technical reversal point comes down to below 1.35
okay we're below 1.33
I will wait for an H4 confirmation and then see if it is time to short or not.
Benny cakes will be on at 15:00 GMT (10am EST)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23,236
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:46am Mar 1, 2012 5:46am
I have 78.900 as resistance for USD but with bonds falling right now, it will most likely break it. 5 year notes are now below 123.00 with a low posted of 122.93 with support (now resistance) at 123.02
I observe your reality but live my own.
  • #23,237
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:47am Mar 1, 2012 5:47am
Daily attached
15 minutes to go 4H bear engulf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUD.png Size: 41 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #23,238
  • Mar 1, 2012 6:02am Mar 1, 2012 6:02am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
okay we're below 1.33
I will wait for an H4 confirmation and then see if it is time to short or not.
Benny cakes will be on at 15:00 GMT (10am EST)
I'll confirm it to you.
"I solemnly confirm that it is time for short."

  • #23,239
  • Mar 1, 2012 6:05am Mar 1, 2012 6:05am
IF it reverses from here, Can this be considered as an inverted H&S pattern???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.png Size: 49 KB
  • #23,240
  • Mar 1, 2012 6:07am Mar 1, 2012 6:07am
Quoting knoholygrail
I use the following logic or view if you cannot put it as logic. My view is that Gold is manipulated. There is much documented support for that view and people such as Sinclair, Willie, Sprott, GATA and many others have that view. Yesterday there was NO LOGICAL reason for Gold to move that much QE or NO QE. The article that I linked to was related to that view. Once Gold sold off the money from the Gold moved to other Asset Classes.

The point of my reply is not to show anything other than my views on this.

Which came first the Chicken or...
I think that there is a logical reason.. Unfortunately I did not get to listen to bernanke speak however it was evident that there was no mention of QE.. I heard a snippet that their next motive is for a strong dollar.. This in turns brings down commodity prices if you look at crude it also sold off heavily look at eur/jpy nothing happened but eur/usd sold off why? Because money flowed into dollar assets and thus commodities weakened..
This reinforces my point that the dollar moves gold prices not the other way around..
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