EURUSD

Don´t thank me, it was your entry, your money, your risk = your achievement.

The euro dollar exchange rate is currently 0.34% higher at 1.3442. Tomorrow offers the weeks biggest event for the markets - the second 3 YR LTRO at the European Central Bank.

Barclays Capital say that, "a positive surprise (take-up between EUR550-750bn) would be a positive for risky assets and the knee-jerk reaction should be EUR positive. The perception will be that euro area banks will face less liquidity constraints, so the risk premium on the EUR should fall as a result. Furthermore, risks to the EUR are still skewed to the upside on positive news as short positioning remains stretched. Beyond that positive knee-jerk reaction, however, we continue to believe that the LTRO will weaken the EUR via the easier monetary policy channel."

BarCap offers advice on trading the EUR-USD ahead of the 3Y LTRO; RBS say the short term bias is higher


Details
Category: US Dollar Exchange Rate
Published on Tuesday, 28 February 2012 13:39
Written by Rob Samson
The euro dollar exchange rate is currently 0.34% higher at 1.3442. Tomorrow offers the weeks biggest event for the markets - the second 3 YR LTRO at the European Central Bank.

Barclays Capital say that, "a positive surprise (take-up between EUR550-750bn) would be a positive for risky assets and the knee-jerk reaction should be EUR positive. The perception will be that euro area banks will face less liquidity constraints, so the risk premium on the EUR should fall as a result. Furthermore, risks to the EUR are still skewed to the upside on positive news as short positioning remains stretched. Beyond that positive knee-jerk reaction, however, we continue to believe that the LTRO will weaken the EUR via the easier monetary policy channel."


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But, an overwhelming take up (say above EUR750bn) will probably mean banks are still liquidity starved, while too little take-up means banks are not prepared to put money to work via carry trades, thus not giving risky assets a further boost.

Given the scope for EUR weakness following the LTRO operation, Barclays advise that they still favour positioning for EUR-USD downside.

"But we prefer to wait until the initial reaction to avoid the risk of a further squeeze higher in EUR. If the take-up is in line or below market expectations of EUR350-550bn, then the chance of a further EUR rally is low, so we favour taking short EUR positions quickly. If the take up is above EUR550bn, then we recommend waiting for any further squeeze that could take us between 1.36-1.37 and then go short EUR/USD. Given that EUR/USD risk reversals remain skewed to the downside, despite the move lower in volatility, we prefer to express our EUR/USD views through put spreads," say BarCap.

Meanwhile, William Moore at RBS has advised traders to buy into any dips on the euro dollar exchange rate.

In a note to clients Moore says yesterday’s dip was slightly more aggressive than anticipated.

He says:

"This level here at 1.3464 is becoming a little troublesome which is a 138.2% projection of the previous range but still I like the buy dip strategy intraday and the level from the short term charts that stand out are any moves towards 1.3410/36. keep stops at 1.3358. Should I be wrong there is also support at 1.3376 and 1.3322. So the short/medium term bias here is higher!"

i trade eur with this system, what think?




i get it free there

yes we been hear talk 1 10, but she ripe for me sell her, she at top 4hr/daily descend channel after breaching big 4hr/daily ascending channel so I using 1st utl of channel to protect stops, if she go she has to break back into previous channel so Ill defend that ltl, if she want to get to 1 10 is lot of work, so I sticking to scalp her, waiting for a runner, and remember her sisters will have to go aswell, so if anything major going to happen should be some good signals first "hopefully" otherwise she a brick

Never (EVER!) trust any premade system, which you haven´t created, tested and used yourself. There are no easy ways or shortcuts in this biz, if you try to find one, you´ll get to know Mr. Margin Call better...

this changes everything!!!

I kid.. I kid..

one question..

is it profitable for you?

EU needs a breather before it goes higher, I'd say

and breathing she is! :/

3414 and the consumer confidence is next on my table. SP also on approach for the support.

coming up

it kind of yes and no to all automated . EA's need to fine tune per broker , my ea (my buggy code) give different result on different broker , it's working well on the broker i have developed on other broker it loosing 20 ~ 40% performance

long @ 20 but not really confident about this...

i would love a dip in the euro to buy more longs....aud looks juicy too....

Sell sell sell! M30 shows clear break of channel going downtrend!

Gettin ready to tank..

eurusd hourly big trend line broken at 1.3435 ..waiting to close 1 hr candle below this trendline to short this bastard till 1.3320 or 1.3286 area...sl 1.3460 RRR=40 risk:140

eurusd hourly big trend line broken at 1.3435 ..waiting to close 1 hr candle below this trendline to short this bastard till 1.3320 or 1.3286 area...sl 1.3460 RRR=40 risk:140:thumbsup:

.

Edit: I guess that answers that hahah

Rumor of higher than expected Consumer confidence #