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  • #1,041
  • Feb 26, 2012 10:41am Feb 26, 2012 10:41am
Ok.nothing much on charts,but im keeping eye on 0.8265 NZDCAD.

i will look for some confident breakout of this level(and not some 'lousy' breakout)..

dont wanna 'play' with yen pairs(esp.cad/jpy as i mentioned earlier)..
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  • #1,042
  • Edited Feb 27, 2012 8:42am Feb 26, 2012 4:06pm | Edited Feb 27, 2012 8:42am
Quoting AvanishDemo
it was a disappointing week.
i took a lil more loss than expected as i was waiting for price to reverse despite having worrisome drawdowns..Probability was good so i thought these strong moves may give reverse as friday is usually profit taking.

Risk was 2.8% set and cut out for 1.75%.(ofcourse its demo.)
1.75 is too mch for me.i had chance to cut it out for 1% but i kept 'hoping' and screwed it up.sometimes u never know which is the best time and place to cut out the trade
.
Even on Cadchf trade when the h4 bar closed below 0.90 i still...
I had the highest number of losers last week than I have had all year, but still ended the week in positive gain. I had 3 losers (and 6 winners) last week (CADCHF and 2x EG trades) but all of them were closed for partial losses rather than full losses.

I will post them all tomorrow so you can see how I managed the trades and why I cut them where I did.

I didn't taken ECAD trade, I can see why you took it, but it is the exception to the norm that I take pure FTB setups on the crosses and what with the big Euro strength last week I wasn't prepared to take that trade.

My actual biggest frustration last week was missing the A+ level trade on UJ @ 79.90 (but I'm still in from 78.20 so can't complain too much).
  • #1,043
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:29pm Feb 26, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
Ok.nothing much on charts,but im keeping eye on 0.8265 NZDCAD.

i will look for some confident breakout of this level(and not some 'lousy' breakout)..

dont wanna 'play' with yen pairs(esp.cad/jpy as i mentioned earlier)..
We had a daily close above the previous daily open/close high.

In terms of a breakout, I'm looking for a good 4HR or Daily close above either side of the range now - of course the lack of space to the FLR to the upside would have to be taken into consideration on any breakout long.
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  • #1,044
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:46am Feb 27, 2012 4:46am
A few of the S/R levels that I have on my watchlist (and have been shared with the Trading Room):

1. Silver @ 34.35 area - classic FTB setup.

2. Silver @ 35.25 area - breakout + pullback - more aggressive setup than a traditional FTB (plus something to think about it in terms of what happens at false breakouts).

3. Gold @ 1760 area - classic FTB

4. EURGBP - classic FTB
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  • #1,045
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:50am Feb 27, 2012 4:50am
I don't trade during the Asian session - but this one identified last week reacted pretty damn well.
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  • #1,046
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:52am Feb 27, 2012 4:52am
As did this one...
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  • #1,047
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:48am Feb 27, 2012 7:48am
Quoting lovejoy80
I had the highest number of losers last week than I have had all year, but still ended the week in positive gain. I had 4 losers (and 6 winners) last week (CADCHF, UCHF and 2x EG trades) but all of them were closed for partial losses rather than full losses.

I will post them all tomorrow so you can see how I managed the trades and why I cut them where I did.

I didn't taken ECAD trade, I can see why you took it, but it is the exception to the norm that I take pure FTB setups on the crosses and what with the big Euro strength last week I wasn't...
I know it's not common practice for commercial members to share losses in detail - but here were my losing trades last week and how I managed to escape with less than full losses on each of them:

1. EURGBP

Entry and Reasoning
Short @ 0.8456 based on a 4HR pin bar off a weekly and monthly resistance level. I entered on the close of the bar, price broke the low but had no follow through momentum (that's the big problem with candlestick bar patterns - they are lagging in nature and you get setups like this where the momentum follow through just isn't there - in fact I find the CHF pairs and EURGBP not overly reliable for these types of setups).

Stop Loss
My SL was @ 0.8476 - why, because if price broke the area marked it was likely that it would continue up to make a new high and thus my SL was at an area where I'd most likely want to be out of the trade if price got there.

Trade Management
What happened - price closed above the S/R area marked on the 1HR TF - this was the signal to exit the trade. Because price closed above this area it was likely that we'd had a breakout back above this area and thus likely that price would now go on and make a new high.

Result
I closed the trade @ 0.8468 which resulted in a -0.6R loss.

Notice that price did go on and make a new high thus I saved myself from a total (-1R) loss.
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  • #1,048
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:00am Feb 27, 2012 8:00am
Cont...

2. EURGBP (!)

Entry and Reasoning

This time a 4HR BEOB off the same area having had a nice spike through the HTF S/R area.

Entry was @ bar close @ 0.8472. I also entered on the retrace to the clear resistance @ 0.8486 - price had to not close above this area if it was going to move down and make a new low (in all probability). Thus I split my risk in two equal parts.

Stop Loss

Stop loss on both was @ 0.8500 as this gave room for a spike above the 0.8487 resistance level mentioned above.

Trade Management

I moved to BE+1 on the retrace trade when price went down to hit the 4HR BEOB low again. I got stopped out @ 0.8485.

I closed the other position manually when it became clear price wasn't moving with the momentum I wanted and it was getting late in the day (on a Friday) and I don't leave trades like this open at the weekend, so I waited as late as I could (I was off out etc) and closed it manually @ 0.8485

Result

BE on the retrace trade and -0.46 on the second position which made for a net -0.23R (as both positions were of equal risk)
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  • #1,049
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:33am Feb 27, 2012 8:33am
Cont...

3. CADCHF

Entry and Reasoning

Reasoning was discussed on here last week - technical confluence at a HTF S/R. The major concern was the strength of the move into this area and the strength of the CHF across the board.

Entry was @ 0.9008

Stop Loss

SL was @ 0.8970 which was below 3 daily bar lows which had held this area as support back in May 2011.

Trade Management

I exited the trade @ 0.8990 when price closed on the 4HR TF below the confluence and importantly below the last 3 previous 4hr closes at this area (where price had still held the area as support). This was very indicative that price was more likely to head lower from here and thus as the probabilities had materially shifted it's not a trade I wished to be in anymore.

Result

-0.47R

Price did indeed continue lower and would have hit my SL.
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  • #1,050
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:57am Feb 27, 2012 8:57am
The common theme that should stand out is that I manage my trades by looking at pure price action i.e. asking myself what does price have to do to tell me a trade setup is now looking unlikely to work out and acting accordingly.

I don't base my decisions on the % I have at risk on the trade or the absolute value I have at stake.

I don't base my decision on an emotional response that tells me to cut the trade cos it's not moving my way.

I don't let trades hit their SL unnecessarily or in hope that price might still turn round.

This is how professional price action traders look to manage their trades. When you realise that a MAJOR part of being a successful trader is having the tools and mental strength to manage trades EFFICIENTLY (cutting trades early IF price is telling you to do so and letting winners run IF price is telling you to do so) with logic and not mechanically, you'll understand that entries are not where the real edge is in trading. If you can realise this then you'll know that being picky and trying to focus on those A+++ trades is a waste of time and is a big mistake amateur's make.
  • #1,051
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:32am Feb 27, 2012 9:32am
So, 3 losing trades last week and -1.3R (compared to a possible worse case -3R).

Now for the winning trades:

1. ACAD

Entry, SL and Reasoning

Reasoning as per this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...95#post5406495

Entry @ 1.0654
SL @ 1.0674

Trade Management and Result

Exited 75% when price hit the FLS @ 1.0629, the other 25% was hit when price bounced back @ 1.0638.

Result +1.13R (Nearly made more than my three losers combined with 1 trade winning trade - what did I say about letting winners run and cutting losers short).
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  • #1,052
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:56am Feb 27, 2012 9:56am
Cont...

2 GBPAUD

Entry, SL and Reasoning

As explained in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post5406516

Entry @ 1.4726, SL @ 1.4680

Trade Management

I closed 75% at the weekly pin FLR level and then cut the remaining 25% when MPC minutes came out (GBP) as explained in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post5408128

Exit @ 1.4834 and 1.4793.

Result @ 2.12R
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  • #1,053
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:03am Feb 27, 2012 10:03am
Cont...

3. NCHF

Entry, SL and Reasoning

Entry @ 0.7557, SL @ 0.7574

FTB to the breakout of the daily S/R

See this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post5413622

Trade Management and Result

Exited 50% when price broke back up above LTF S/R and when risk appetite was turning positive. Exited other 50% at the main daily FLS (I prefer to keep these setups simple and on pairs I don't watch intraday I am more likely to take more profit at FLS/R's than pairs I do watch intraday).

Exit @ 0.7547, 0.7539. Result +0.85R
  • #1,054
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:17am Feb 27, 2012 10:17am
Cont...

4. AUDUSD

Entry, SL and Reasoning

Entry @ 1.0718, SL @ 1.0755. Entry was mainly discretionary as explained in this post.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post5406524

Trade Management and Result

Closed 50% at a daily support level @ 1.0655. Closed the remaining 50% @ 1.0605 which was another daily support level and TL confluence plus this would be the bottom of what is potentially a daily bull flag forming.

Result +2.38R
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  • #1,055
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:23am Feb 27, 2012 10:23am
Cont...

5. UCHF

Entry, SL and Reasoning

Entry @ 0.9104, SL @ 0.9060 (below a daily bar low)

Reasoning for the trade explained in this post

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post5406524

Trade Management and Result

Exited trade at daily resistance - price didn't look like it was going to break this level.

Exit @ 0.9133

Result +0.66R
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  • #1,056
  • Feb 27, 2012 10:59am Feb 27, 2012 10:59am
Cont...

6. EURJPY and EURUSD

The reasoning for both these trades is explained in the post below - they are essentially the same trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...19#post5412519

I reacted too late really and got poor entries and got stopped out at BE in the end.


That is all trades I took (that were closed) last week.

5 wins, 1BE, 3 Losses . So that's a 55% win rate but +5.8R (my long term average win rate is actually between 60-70%) which of course is the more meaningful metric.

All the setups were discussed either before the event (if appropriate) or at the time I took them in the Trading Room.
  • #1,057
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:02am Feb 27, 2012 11:02am
Quoting lovejoy80
A few of the S/R levels that I have on my watchlist (and have been shared with the Trading Room):

1. Silver @ 34.35 area - classic FTB setup.

2. Silver @ 35.25 area - breakout + pullback - more aggressive setup than a traditional FTB (plus something to think about it in terms of what happens at false breakouts).

3. Gold @ 1760 area - classic FTB

4. EURGBP - classic FTB
Price didn't quite come low enough to hit my entry order and because price came close and moved to the FLR the setup is now cancelled
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  • #1,058
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:05am Feb 27, 2012 11:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
A few of the S/R levels that I have on my watchlist (and have been shared with the Trading Room):

1. Silver @ 34.35 area - classic FTB setup.

2. Silver @ 35.25 area - breakout + pullback - more aggressive setup than a traditional FTB (plus something to think about it in terms of what happens at false breakouts).

3. Gold @ 1760 area - classic FTB

4. EURGBP - classic FTB
Had to pop out and missed this setup. The FLS would have been the breakout bar low. Price couldn't go on and form a new LL and formed a BUOB closing back within the range. I would have taken 50% off at the FLS and the rest would have been stopped out at BE.
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  • #1,059
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:14am Feb 27, 2012 11:14am
First new trade of the week:

NCHF - if you look at my Silver chart here and what I said about the false breakouts you should be able to see why I took this trade.

It's essentially the footprint left behind by the big players that suggests price is more likely to bounce further from this daily S/R.

I closed the whole trade @ 0.7525 FLR - I should have looked at the broader market and seen the strong risk sentiment in the commod currencies as would have kept some of the trade open aiming for the 0.7560 area that was hit just now.

SL was below the bar lows @ 0.7456, Entry @ 0.7488 +1.1R
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  • #1,060
  • Feb 27, 2012 11:27am Feb 27, 2012 11:27am
Second trade:

Long EURUSD @ 1.3388, SL @ 1.3362

Entry based on the rejection of a good monthly level (and FTB) that I'd highlighted earlier to the group. I decided not to trade the pure touch of the level but to wait to see if we got a false break into the level then a close above.

We got this together with technical confluence in the form of UCHF and EURx and fundamental confluence in the form of better than expected US Home Sales data.

The plan was to see if price could push above 1.34 quite quickly and move the SL up to 1.3374. I then took 75% profit at the FLR @ 1.3416 and the rest was stopped out at BE for a + 0.85R win
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