EurAnalysis

I'm able to identify institutional supply and institutional demand, problem that I sometimes have is getting filled because i'm now competing with the banks (If I remember right then even Sam Seiden talked about this [he's the guy who was on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.]). There are even times when price turns around with pip accuracy where I have drawn my line. I hope you got the point, I can see everything on my charts.

Got it bro...
But please also post here bro because this thread is my virtual family or you can say my forex family or second family I dont want to miss any member of my family here

I was also searching this demand few days back in which may be I succeeded may be thats why I was long

ok

wow interesting,...ehehhe

Wow Huhuhu Master is back ~ Yi haaaa...

The Week Ahead
Initial focus of the week will be on reactions to G20 meeting in Mexico City during the weekend. European Union leaders would likely call for significant increase in the resources available to the IMF to help the region fight the debt crisis. IMF spokesman said that a global financial fire is needed to protect countries against contagion risks and that include "increase in IMF resources" to "supplement resources that the European authorities would put on the table." China, Japan and Brazil have made clear their willingness to contribute more, but US is still reluctant to commit. The negotiation could likely drag on until at least next meeting in April. Hence, reactions would likely be muted. Later in the Week, Fed chairman Bernanke will testify before Congressional panels on Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts expect Bernanke to remain cautiously optimistic on recovery while maintain Fed's stance to continue the ultra loose monetary policy. Of course, ECB's LTRO operation will be closely watched.

1. Monday: New Zealand trade balance; Eurozone M3; US pending home sales.
2. Tuesday: German Gfk consumer sentiment; Swiss employment level; UK CBI reported sales; US durables, consumer confidence; S&P Case Shiller hour price
3. Wednesday: Japan manufacturing PMI, industrial production, housing starts; Australia retail sales; Swiss KOF; German unemployment, Eurozone CPI; US GDP revision, Chicago PMI, Fed's Beige Book, Bernanke testimony
4. Thursday: China Manufacturing PMI; Swiss GDP, SVME PMI; UK manufacturing PMI; Eurozone unemployment; Canada current account, RMPI, IPPI; US jobless claims, persona income and spending, ISM manufacturing
5. Friday: Japan CPI, household spending, unemployment rate; UK construction PMI; Eurozone PPI; Canada GDP.

Technical Highlights
Dollar index broke 78.36 support last week to resume the decline from 81.78. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and current fall would target 100% projection of 81.78 to 78.36 from 79.48 at 76.69. Also, as noted before, we're favoring the case that whole rebound from 72.69 is finished at 81.78 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Break of 76.69 projection level will suggest that fall from 81.78 is developing into an impulsive move and affirms the case of down trend resumption.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120225160196/

http://www.actionforex.com/images/st...20120225w1.gif

http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-...-demand-230696

Snippet:

Forexpros - The dollar shot up against the yen on Friday on a double-whammy of rising demand for riskier currencies like the euro as well as in wake of Bank of Japan policies to reverse the currency's strengthening trend.

In U.S. trading on Friday, USD/JPY hit 80.99, up 1.23% up from a low of 79.93 and also a session high.

The pair sought to test technical support at 80.76 and resistance at 81.15.

The Bank of Japan has said it would allocate JPY10 trillion to an asset-purchasing program and establish inflation goals as a move to weaken the currency, and Japanese importers reportedly sold off their yen positions to prepare for a weaker currency.

Widening interest-rate differentials between the yen and the greenback also sparked selling.

Meanwhile, solid business-climate data out of Germany coupled with lower yields at an Italian bond auction sparked demand for the euro and stocks in a worldwide risk-on trading session.

Since the yen often serves as a safe haven, monetary easing at home coupled with demand for riskier assets worldwide sent the Japanese currency plummeting.

The yen, meanwhile, was down against the Australian dollar as well as the euro, with AUD/JPY gaining 1.08% to 86.87 and EUR/JPY up 1.90% at 109.01.

Japanese retail sales figures are due out Sunday, while on Monday, data on pending U.S. home sales will hit the wire.

Kno's Comments: If EUR/JPY reverses and I have no idea if it will however if USD/JPY goes back to 78.50 then I expect based on past performances and correlation that EUR/JPY will move down with it.

http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...JPY-weekly.png

That's my take on it...

http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts

http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts

http://www.forexpros.com/charts/real-time-forex-charts

US Dollar Index

http://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-d...advanced-chart

https://www.finotec.com/forex/trading-times.php

Snippet:

Currencies are traded 24 hours a day, from Sunday afternoon EST* (Eastern Standard Time) to Friday afternoon EST. Through this 5+ day week of market activity, there is always at least one financial center open for business. Indeed, as some markets close for the night, others open somewhere else on the planet. Since forex trading hours overlap, currencies are being traded continuously. In other words, forex practically never stops.

Traders new to the world of foreign exchange tend to think that since the market is open 24 hours a day, they may trade whenever they choose during the day. Although this preconceived idea is actually true, it needs to be clarified. Indeed when it comes to forex trading hours, some hours present better opportunities than others. By better opportunities, we mean of course potentially greater profit. So what are the most suitable forex trading hours and why?

Usually, the best time to enter forex markets is when large volumes of currencies are traded. At those hours, traders can take full advantage of forex benefits. Since the forex market is traded 24 hours a day, the best time to enter is when several countries are trading at the same time. In each time zone across the world, forex markets operate from 8 am to 4 pm. So, to take advantage of heavy trading volume, the best is to look at when forex market hours in different countries overlap. Those hours are usually the time when the forex market is the most active and has thus the largest volume of trades and the biggest pip movements. It is when currencies are the most active that traders have a better chance of making some profit. Slow markets offer little chances of profit and therefore, forex traders usually stay out of them. When do forex trading times overlap?
Worldwide Forex Trading Hours:

https://www.finotec.com/images/mrket-hours.gif

Forex Trading opens in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia (and particularly Japan), the Middle East, Europe (with London being the main financial center) and America.
Forex Trading Hours (EST):

Australia: 5pm - 1 am
Tokyo: 7 pm - 3 am
Singapore/Hong Kong: 9 pm - 5 am
Frankfurt: 2 am - 10 am
London: 3 am - 11 am
We can see that at around 5 am, trading stops in Asia while in Europe, the market is at its busiest time.
On the other side of the Atlantic, trading in the USA kicks off in New York at 8 am while the European market is coming to a close. Afterwards, the Australian is waking up again in Sidney completing one full trading day.

Also, you have probably noticed that from 4 pm to 6 pm EST, there is no interesting overlap. That’s when the US markets close without overlapping any other large market. At those hours, the volume of trades is much lower, offering less great trade opportunities.
You can thus see that while you can take advantage of a 24hr Forex Trading experience, some hours will allow for better opportunities than others.
*EST = UTC** - 5 hours
**UTC= Coordinated Universal Time
While some hours of the day are busier than others, meaning that forex trading activity is greater at those hours, price fluctuation varies from day to day. As a general rule, some days of the week are busier than others. Whether in London, Tokyo, or the U.S., pip range movements for all 4 majors tend to be greater towards the middle of the week. Generally speaking, it is during Tuesday and Wednesday Forex Trading Sessions that we see the widest pip variation for all majors.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81N1L620120226

Snippet:

G20 moves to line up huge rescue
























http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=BTRE81P149L00

http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=BTRE81P03K400





http://s1.reutersmedia.net/resources...=BTRE81O1B6D00


1 of 5. Mexico's President Felipe Calderon (C) gives a speech during the Group of Twenty (G20) leading economies' finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Mexico City February 25, 2012.
Credit: Reuters/Ariel Gutierrez/Presidential Palace/Handout





By Dave Graham and Tetsushi Kajimoto

MEXICO CITY | Sun Feb 26, 2012 9:29am EST


MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The world's leading economies worked on Sunday to line up a deal in April on a second global rescue package worth nearly $2 trillion to stop the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis from spreading and putting at risk the tentative recovery.

Germany said it would make a decision some time in March on strengthening Europe's bailout fund, a move other Group of 20 countries say is essential to clear the way for throwing extra funds into the International Monetary Fund.

The two actions are part of the G20's efforts to build up massive international resources by the end of April - when the group next meets - and convince financial markets they can stem the euro-zone's deep problems.

It would mark their boldest effort since 2008, when the G20 mustered $1 trillion to help rescue the world economy.

British finance minister George Osborne said there would be no additional resources committed to the IMF until euro zone countries bolstered their own efforts to stop contagion.

"We are prepared to consider IMF resources but only once we see the color of the euro zone money and we have not seen the color of the euro zone money," he told Sky TV. "I think that quid pro quo will be clearly established here in Mexico City."

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said European leaders will tackle the adequacy of the region's firewall during March. The issue will be on the agenda of a European Union summit next week.

It would mark their boldest effort since 2008, when the G20 mustered $1 trillion to help rescue the world economy.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said European leaders will tackle the adequacy of the region's firewall during March. The issue will be on the agenda of a European Union summit next week.

"But the month of March goes from March 1 to March 31. It will be reviewed again, also in the light of the developments that have since occurred, whether the stated dimension of the (European bailout) mechanism is enough or not," he told reporters.
Berlin's willingness to discuss the size of Europe's firewall marks an important shift.

Facing political opposition to a second Greek bailout in its parliament, it has balked at enlarging Europe's rescue fund on the grounds that it would undermine efforts to impose fiscal discipline on indebted countries.

The softening of its stance came as Schaeuble said he assumes that the Greek bailout package will win Bundestag support on Monday.
An agreement by Europe to merge its temporary and permanent bailout vehicles would create a $1 trillion war chest and open the door for other G20 countries to meet the IMF's request for $500-$600 billion in new resources, on top of its current $358 billion in funds.
Put together, this would total around $1.95 trillion in firepower.

The G20 has no intention of easing its pressure on Europe by giving it a strong signal now that new IMF money is in the bag. Its communique when two days of ministerial meetings end today will merely state that the world's leading economies will review the resources of the IMF in April without setting a date for a deal, G20 officials said.

But they left no doubt the cash is needed to calm markets and secure economic growth. "To overcome the crisis, you have to get ahead of the curve and have a big enough bazooka," said Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Japan's Finance Minister, Jun Azumi, said his country stood ready to contribute IMF funds once Europe has acted.
"I expect debate on strengthening of the IMF lending capacity will progress on condition that the problem of Europe's debt crisis is put to an end by the G20 meeting in Washington in April," he said.

Finance chiefs in their communique on Sunday will also cite rising oil prices driven by geopolitical risks as a threat to a tentative world recovery that is showing signs of strength, diplomatic sources said.

The price of oil vaulted over $125 a barrel on Friday, the highest level in nearly 10 months on concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Oil-producing members of the G20 said on Saturday they would take measures to avoid a rise in petroleum prices from hurting the world economy, Italy's deputy economy minister said.

From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Dear Jim,
What is your take on the recent article on gold with the title "The
13 Year curse?"
Regards,
CIGA Arlen

Dear Arlen,
If all you need to be able to do is to count from one to thirteen in order to be a master gold trader all my dogs would have trading accounts and would take care of me.

Sheeple love simple, and that article was as simple as you can get.
Regards,
Jim

Are We Ready To Go Now ....

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_429932




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...2/schauble.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said he’s confident his country’s parliament will support a second aid package for Greece in a Feb. 27 vote, leaving open whether the euro region’s financial backstops should be increased.
“I assume that we will get the necessary support in parliament on Monday,” Schaeuble told reporters during a meeting in Mexico City of finance officials from the 20 biggest economies. A decision on the need to boost the size of the region’s permanent rescue fund, known as the European Stability Mechanism, will be taken “in the course of March,” he said.

That’ll be “in time” for the International Monetary Fund to decide about an increase of its lending capacity at its meeting in Washington on April 20-22, Schaeuble said. The minister said he assumes that the IMF will provide the “necessary support” for the second bailout for Greece.
Group of 20 officials gathered less than a week after Europe agreed to a second bailout for Greece in a bid to avert the euro-area’s first sovereign default. European Union governments are due to review whether to raise the ESM’s ceiling “in the course of March,” European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters in Mexico City yesterday, suggesting no final decision will be made at a leaders’ summit starting March 1.

Germany’s priority on the ESM is deciding how quickly countries should pay into the fund “if we want it actually to enter into force this summer,” Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman, told reporters in Berlin on Feb. 22.

Schaeuble said there has been “a broad tendency, but no decision,” to pay capital into the ESM in two tranches instead of an originally envisaged five installments.

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said Germany is making an “important contribution” to solving the debt crisis. Financial aid can only buy time that needs to be used to improve competitiveness and restore confidence, Weidmann said at a press briefing alongside Schaeuble.
[Bloomberg]
ekathimerini.com , Sunday February 26, 2012 (22:37)

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php...w?art_id=10633

Snippet:

In an interview with Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times, a senior German official described the euro as a “machine from hell that we cannot turn off.” Personally I am more positive than most about the euro, provided it is managed by grown-ups and not by Keynesians. However there is no question that our current economic system contains a number of such “Machines from Hell,” that turning them off is at least extremely difficult and that we will be very lucky to survive their combined operation.

One long-standing such Machine that has recently reared its robotic head is the Chinese banking system. Ernst and Young estimated as far back as 2006 that that system had $911 billion of bad debts. Since then the major Chinese banks have all done immensely successful initial public offerings, with international auditors suggesting that bad debt levels were far below that amount. Now we are told by the Financial Times that the “stimulus” of 2008-09, which was mostly financed by the banks, has left them with $1.7 trillion of loans to Chinese provinces and cities, mostly for dud real estate transaction, more than half of which come due within the next three years.

Needless to say, banks have been told to roll the debts over, since a mass default on that scale, 25% of China’s GDP, would be hugely economically damaging. “From a longer-term perspective, the investment projects launched during the financial crisis will have no problem generating a return” we are told. Right!

This is a classic “Machine from Hell.” Writing off $1.7 trillion of loans to provinces and municipalities would be damaging, so like the corporate bad loans that mysteriously disappeared after 2006, these debts will be rolled over and will continue being accounted for in the banks’ balance sheets as worth 100 fen on the renminbi. The hollowing-out of Chinese bank balance sheets will continue, until eventually the entire system collapses. The Machine is from Hell, and it is very unlikely to be turned off.

A second Machine from Hell is Quantitative Easing, the funding of countries’ gigantic budget deficits by central banks. In my years as a U.S. Treasury advisor, this was regarded as a no-no. Emerging markets all over the world were dragooned by IMF and US Treasury “experts” into inserting a specific prohibition against extensive government funding into their central bank statutes. Yet now all the major economies are doing it, with Britain and Japan the most enthusiastic, funding more than half their budget deficits by these means, devoting more than 5% of their GDPs to this nonsense.

Needless to say, this Machine too cannot be turned off. Once the markets have grown used to central banks as major buyers of government bonds and politicians have got used to being able to spend 8-10% of GDP more than they take in through taxation, neither the financial nor the political special interests will allow them to stop. Ben Bernanke, already buying more than $400 billion of long-term Treasuries through “Operation Twist II” will shortly begin direct Treasury purchases again, citing the continued weakness of the U.S. economy as an excuse (even though housing, his last excuse, is now showing strong signs of stabilization and even recovery). In every country, one dreadful specter will keep the purchases going: if they stopped, government bond yields would rise sharply, which would destabilize government finances further and, more important, wreck the world’s banking systems, overburdened as they are with decades of reckless government bond purchases.

Eventually we will see Weimar Republic levels of inflation AND banking system collapse, although the politicians may get off lightly because of the collapse in the real value of government’s debts. That may appear unfair, but in reality banks and voters are as complicit in creating this Machine as the politicians, so the universal misery will be well deserved.

MORE.... See Link...

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=14841

Snippet:


Worries About 'Monetary Policy Transmission'

A recent article at the FT's Alphaville blog brought a summary of a Nomura report on what is called the 'monetary policy transmission mechanism'. In short, Nomura is worried that the inflationary measures implemented by the ECB amount to the famous 'pushing on a string'. The following chart was included by Nomura to illustrate how monetary policy is usually transmitted in 'normal times' and how the current situation differs:

http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media...-mechanism.jpg
Charting the 'broken monetary policy transmission mechanism' – click for better resolution.

As an aside, it may also be worth reading another recent Alphaville article in a related context, concerning the worries among BIS (Bank for International Settlements) board members that the extraordinary liquidity provisions by central banks are creating new imbalances and are destroying the private sector funding markets (all of which they indeed do).

Apparently central bankers are 'uncomfortable' these days about the 'unknown costs' the vast expansion of central bank balance sheets may entail.
We would note that these deliberations are coming a little late in the game.


http://ads.investingchannel.com/adta...77874188065%3F


As to the 'broken transmission' mechanism, the worry is evidently that in spite of the vast inflationary push by the ECB, the money supply may actually fail to respond and grow, as banks and private sector borrowers remain reluctant to expand inflationary credit.
As Nomura writes:

“To the extent that the policy rate boosts activity, demand for credit should increase as well. The bottom line is that with a well-functioning transmission mechanism, a rate cut by the ECB should trigger a tick up in money (i.e. deposits) and credit growth.

But, in abnormal times …
… if some banks are unable to access the interbank markets, the interest rate and the bank lending channel can break down. And when banks are shut out of the money markets, they are forced into asset fire sales; the pressure on bank balance sheets can be severe, preventing banks from expanding the supply of credit.

The ECB has responded to the dislocations on the money markets with a set of liquidity operations which have, in effect, made the Bank the lender of first resort for many European banks. While having ECB liquidity available is clearly preferable to the case of no ECB liquidity, the side-effect of having a two-tier banking system – as we will demonstrate below – (composed of banks addicted to ECB funding alongside well-functioning ones able to borrow and lending in the interbank money markets) is that it leaves the monetary transmission mechanism significantly impaired.

In reality, all economic activity is funded by real goods. Money has only the function of facilitating exchange and making economic calculation possible. Nothing can be gained by adding to the money supply: not one iota will be added to the economy's pool of real funding – the goods produced, but not consumed – by increasing the money supply. The fact that the above mentioned 'transmission mechanism' is broken is actually a strong sign that the pool of real funding is in trouble and needs to be rebuilt. The economy requires new savings and the capital structure must be temporarily shortened until enough new savings have accumulated. Increasing the amount of fiduciary media in the banking system by means of inflationary credit creation is not going to help this process: on the contrary, it is going to significantly delay and hinder it by creating more capital malinvestment.

Essentially, the addition of fiduciary media to the already existing pile will create the illusion that the pool of real savings is bigger than it actually is. This will lead entrepreneurs to err in their appraisal of future consumer demand. There will be certain sectors of the economy that get a disproportionate share of the newly printed money – they will be the ones in which capital malinvestment will tend to be concentrated. This will not only lead to capital consumption, it will also deprive more worthy investments of the funds needed for their realization. In the end, an imbalance in the ratio of saving, investment, production and consumption will emerge and another economic bust will be required to restore balance.

However, a good case can currently be made that several of the economies in the euro area are already past the point where such an artificial boom can still be created by inflationary lending: once the pool of real funding is in trouble, there is literally 'nothing left to lend'. It is no longer possible to create even an illusion of prosperity, as there are no longer sufficient real resources that could be diverted to uneconomic bubble activities. This is what the 'pushing on a string' phenomenon actually reveals.

Not surprisingly, recent economic data releases from euroland show that things are once again taking a turn for the worse, with a marked drifting apart between the core's and the 'periphery's performance. For the complete PMI release from Markit, see here. We reproduce two pertinent charts below:

"The economic anarchy of capitalist society as it exists today is, in my opinion, the real source of the evil." - Albert Einstein


"Man can find meaning in life, short and perilous as it is, only through devoting himself to society" - Albert Einstein

http://www.informationclearinghouse....ticle30651.htm

Snippet:

'US to Announce Aerial Blockade on Syria'

By Ynet News
February 26, 2012 "Ynet News" -- US readies for possibility of intervention without UN resolution, Asharq Al-Awsat reports, citing US military official; plan to include humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees on Turkey's border

The Pentagon is readying for the possibility of intervention in Syria, aiming to halt Syrian President Bashsar Assad's violent crackdown on protesters, the newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reported Saturday, citing a US military offical.

According to the official, the intervention scenario calls for the establishment of a buffer zone on the Turkish border, in order to receive Syrian refugees. The Red Cross would then provide the civilians humanitarian aid, before NATO crews would arrive from Turkey and join the efforts.

The measure would pave the way for the US to declare an aerial blockade on Syria.

The intercession is to be modeled after NATO's efforts in Kosovo, which brought an end to the Serbian control of the region. NATO's plan of action included prolonged aerial shelling.

The US' diplomatic efforts have yet to yield an effective international resolution that would stop the bloodshed. More than 100 protesters have died over the weekend alone, human rights activists said.


According to Asharq Al-Awsat, the Pentagon does not anticipate a change of heart on the part of China or Russia, who have opposed foreign intervention or sanctions against Syria. But the US expects the two nations to join the humanitarian aid efforts, support a ceasefire between the Syrian regime and rebels and send special UN envoys to investigate

http://www.nera.com/extImage/PUB_Cre...ins_V_0609.pdf

About NERA
NERA Economic Consulting (www.nera.com) is an international firm of economists who understand how markets work. We provide economic analysis and advice to corporations, governments, law firms, regulatory agencies, trade associations, and international agencies. Our global team of more than 600 professionals operates in over 20 offices across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific.

NERA provides practical economic advice related to highly complex business and legal issues arising from competition, regulation, public policy, strategy, finance, and litigation. Founded in 1961 as National Economic Research Associates, our more than 45 years of experience creating strategies, studies, reports, expert testimony, and policy recommendations reflects our specialization in industrial and financial economics. Because of our commitment to deliver unbiased findings, we are widely recognized for our independence. Our clients come to us expecting integrity and the unvarnished truth.

Contacts
For further information and questions, please contact:
Dr. Faten Sabry Dr.

Snippet:

The mounting losses and the speed with which they seemed to be spreading created a virtual panic that led to a flight to quality by investors—even from the liquid asset-backed commercial paper markets—and spurred immediate central bank action.

Kno's Comments: By reading this fascinating research report about 2008 YOU will understand what is about to happen again however much much worse. LTRO 2 and QE3 just says the inmates have taken over the asylum.

However they are all very wealthy and prosperous. Einstein was right on...


Follow Up - January 3, 2012

17 Pages

http://www.nera.com/nera-files/PUB_S...rt_IX_0112.pdf

Where do you see the global economy in 5 years time, knoholygrail?

Ta