EurAnalysis

Great post!!

Huge respect to this woman, such people make this planet a better place. Thanks for sharing this story!

I think one from a thousands bro...

Nice post

So true bro

Hello bro...How are you?
Missing your charts and anaylsis
Rarely you post now , is everything fine at your end bro.?

For me that is true love...May they live long beautiful and happy life
Nope now a days 1 in a million...

http://www.gata.org/node/8303

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Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2010-02-06 17:23. Section: Essays

By Peter Warburton
April 9, 2001

More than 20 years ago, I was a research officer in a forecasting unit at the London Business School. We called ourselves international monetarists then and we had a model that determined the inflation rate from the growth of money stock per unit of output, with long and variable lags. The value of a currency was determined, in the long run, by its monetary growth per unit of output in relation to that of the rest of the developed world. Being a young man, I was heavily into econometrics -- or economic tricks, as some would have it -- and our research group published papers showing how well this model fitted the data of that time. Basically, we had it sown up. We knew how to predict inflation; we knew the equilibrium value of currencies and the untidy realities of economic life were mopped up in the balance of payments. We felt sure that if the authorities could regulate the growth of the money supply, all would be well. How wrong we were.

By the mid-1980s, central bankers had begun to enjoy a measure of success in controlling inflation, not by strict regulation of the money supply, but as a byproduct of financial deregulation and the liberalization of credit. Even allowing for the lapses of 1988-90, there was a growing confidence that the battle against inflation was won. Throughout the 1990s, economists were absorbed by the issue of the permanence of low inflation, as measured by the annual change in a weighted basket of consumer goods and services, the CPI. But was inflation dead, or merely sleeping? Residual fears that it may only be a long sleep led the US authorities to establish the Boskin commission, whose charge was to deliver inflation a heavy blow to the head. Stunned into submission, the CPI took a long while to stir from its slumbers and did not do so until higher oil prices came along last year. However, it is far from certain that this surge will persist, and quite conceivable that it will recede later in the year in response to weakness in the real economy. To all intents and purposes, inflation in its popular form looks dead or comatose.

THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN IN 2001 - Kno

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Central banks are engaged in a desperate battle on two fronts
What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, they seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.

It is important to recognize that the central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200 billion, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world's large investment banks have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil, and commodity prices.

Central banks, and particularly the US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when corporate profitability is on the ropes. Keeping the equity index on an even keel is essential to protect the wealth of the household sector and to maintain the expectation of future gains. For as long as these objectives can be achieved, the value of the US dollar can also be stabilized in relation to other currencies, despite the extraordinary imbalances in external trade.

Beneath the surface, the values of the dollar, the yen and the euro have been eroded simultaneously by the over-extension of credit. The latent losses in the credit system, emanating from non-performing loans and defaulting bonds, represent a charge against the value of the currency, as surely as if the edges of the notes and coins had been trimmed away.

There has been a reduction in the quality of credit rather than an increase in the quantity of money (net of writeoffs). The search is on for a valid yardstick, a measure of monetary value that has not been (and cannot be) distorted by central banks’ firefighting and wrecking tactics.

Kno's Comments: This was written 10 plus years ago. Look where we are now. A Collapse is GUARANTEED. The Big Question Is When ?

I Love The Internet...

True inflation is coming although not in our lifetimes I suspect. The traditional measures of inflationary tendency.....(the good kind driven by growth and the bad kind by money supply), are being totally skewed by the presence of labour value adding through India and China and commodity discounting through the destruction of resource nationalisation. These act to ensure that the traditional bogemen (which were very much a product of the regionalised economy of yore) are now counter balanced by the largesse pouring in from the Third World. The upshot will be that Greek workers will be squeezed dry as they wait forlornly for the emergence of these old game changers.

Once the sources of this global value dry up, especially the discounts we enjoy via underpriced commodities (watch prices skyrocket as the global consumer base expands), terminal inflation will set deep roots.

Typically big crosses like these would pull it one way or another but 1. the crosses are coming from both directions 2. it looks like the crosses will happen at the same time 3. price is almost exactly in the middle where it stopped before hitting 4hr 540.

810 crossing under 1620 would normally be very bullish for the short term but not only is 180 getting ready cross above 270 but 90 is about to cross above 360 which usually pulls price down.

Monday should be interesting that's for sure, unless we get some news which dictates pa.

Brother, I'm sure a better half is waiting for you .. one day you will find her standing beside your trading desk and arguing with you why you put a Buy Order in the critical Supply Zone

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com...e-in-gold.html

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http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mkqzNeyyrm...pshot-1127.png

If, and this is a big "IF", the metal pushes through the top of this channel and closes the month above it, odds would then favor an acceleration of the trend higher and perhaps a new and steeper uptrending price channel being formed. I would especially want to see a second consecutive monthly close ABOVE this old channel coming at the end of March to confirm this however to avoid another one month wonder.

If we were to get that, I do not think it would be very long before we revisit the all time highs above $1900.

What this would be telling us fundamentally is that gold is now convinced beyond all shadow of a doubt that the near world-wide currency debauchment by the Central Banks is not going unnoticed.

That environment, which is simply another way of stating NEAR-ZERO interest rate policy, is generating genuine fears of currency debasement and the subsequent strong inflationary impact that inevitably arises from such a policy.

We would also get a confirmation by a strongly rising Continuous Commodity Index.

wah thats sweet,but maybe am dreaming only..lol

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...rse-not-better

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...n-of-2013-2020

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There are very few heroes in economics but for me one of the patron saints of that profession should be Nikolai Kondratiev who was shot by firing squad on the orders of Stalin in 1938. He died for what he believed was the truth. His execution was ordered because his academic work propounded that the capitalist system would not collapse as a result of the great depression of 1929. This truth Stalin did not want to hear, thus Nikolai was exterminated and his work suppressed for over two decades.

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...-1789-2003.jpg

Kondratiev's analysis described how international capitalism had gone through many such "great depressions" and as such were a normal part of the international mercantile credit system. The long term business cycles that he identified through meticulous research are now called "Kondratieff" cycles or "K" waves.

This is more like a fundie trading thread and as you know i'm mostly a chartist, PA. Don't care about news etc @ all.
So more posting on threads where people trade like me.

I wouldn't say so, my friend. Many of these guys are chartist who are actually changing opinions with some fundies ("fun dies") and learning. I've said it before many times, but market has no mind of it's own. With each movement in the price there is humans behind it - one cannot just trust technical information in charts to predict becoming actions.

I prefer knowledge of a reason for every price action.

I also dont care much about these news etc...Where do you post mostly? But try to post here also bro because newbie like me learns a lot from experience traders like you...I dont visit other threads often because there is so much bulling around most of the thread...
GL for the coming week

I love this thread lol keep posting guys charts also!!

"Price is Everything Chat Room" and "Price is Everything" thread seems nice too.