EurAnalysis

Thanks Reckon. Did you get my pm? Please reply it whenever u get a change.

Thanks for the vouch Kno, I appreciate it. If I could vouch for you for the amount of time you've put in to keep us all informed I would.

Here's a weekly chart I put together to show what happened in May '10 when the ECB intervened. The 360 t3ma that held up in '10 is the same one that held just as strong in January of this year.

You are welcome. We all work together as a team to help each other. The credit goes to PipTrapper for allowing us to post without the normal noise and ego's on most forex threads. When I say allow us to post, I mean he has set rules and they are enforced in a equal way for all of us.

That is part of success trading forex. I call it discipline. Have a nice weekend and I look forward to more of your informative charts.

Fibonacci Numbers
Defined by the Italian mathematician Fibonacci (also called Leonardo da Pisa) to show how rabbit populations grew, this is the sequence of numbers where every number is equal to the sum of the two previous ones – therefore, 0,1,1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, etc. This sequence routinely and repeatedly appears in nature, which is why technical traders think it is relevant. What they watch is the ratio between each pair of numbers in the sequence – roughly 1.618.

Where is everybody?

http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/...JPY-weekly.png

I am examining the chart now and it is clear that the rise from 97.50 from the bottom has been consistent.

When you look at a one day chart on EUR/USD you will see it has come down from 1.4150 on November 1, 2011 to the low of 1.2650 this past January 15, 2012. It has since risen to 1.3450 as EUR/JPY has risen to 1.0911.

The total move in EUR/JPY is 1161 PIPS from 97.50 to 1.0911. The move in EUR/USD has been 800 PIPS. (1.2650 to 1.3450)

Now to USD/JPY and we see that from February 1, 2012 it has moved from 76.50 to 81.19, a rise up (Currency Is Weaker) of 469 PIPS.

What I am pointing out especially to those skilled in the use of charts is that aside from the risk issue on EUR/USD because of Greece and the Euro zone there is NOW another factor that you need to be aware of and monitor.

That factor is the VALUE of USD/JPY as it weakens and causes movements up in EUR/JPY which in turn brings up EUR/USD.

If USD/JPY is ready to move BACK to 1.1250 (AND I DO NOT SAY IT WILL) or Move Back down to say 1.0500 it will bring EUR/USD with it. Of course not PIP per PIP however it becomes a factor. PipTrapper in the past has posted the Correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

The main purpose of my comments is to bring these facts to everyone's attention and suggest it needs further attention and monitoring mainly because of the CHANGING status it appears in Japan.

It has been suggested by analysts that since March 2012 is Year End in Japan money will be brought back during March 2012 and this event most likely will cause USD/JPY to fall (GET STRONGER) as other currencies are sold in order to bring Yen into Japan for Year End Purposes.

I know this is a Saturday and as PipTrapper said earlier in jest form "Where is Everyone" I encourage a discussion on this Topic over the quiet weekend while we Await LTRO on the 29TH (A Leap Year) and the results from the G-20 and the ongoing Greek Saga...

It always got my Juices going especially as I grew up. We will have to ask Freud why ? On a serious Topic I just posted my thoughts on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY as it relates to USD/JPY. It would be helpful to hear your views since I know you are very aware of the Correlations and the issues around the two currencies and the cross currency "USD/JPY"

Thanks and have a good weekend.

I also welcome everyone else with views on this important topic to share your thoughts with us.

Good Weekend All !!!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_429854

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ECB's Greek bond decision may prove costly



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_0708.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif The European Central Bank's decision to exempt itself from taking losses on its Greek bonds compromises its senior status in the bond market and may push up borrowing costs of other debt-strained eurozone countries, Standard & Poor's said late on Friday.

The ECB and the 17 eurozone central banks made cosmetic changes to the 62 billion euros worth of bonds they own this week to avoid being pulled into Greece's debt reduction deal, which will see private investors lose well over half their money.

S&P, which carried out a mass downgrade of nine eurozone states last month, said the ECB's move was another blow for the bloc's weaker countries, changing the ECB's status at least in this instance «from implicit super-senior creditor to an explicit one."

"We believe that this development (seniority of ECB) could further weaken the prospects of peripheral eurozone sovereigns currently receiving official funding to regain the ability to access the capital markets and could raise borrowing rates of those sovereigns still accessing the primary markets,» it said in a statement.

S&P downgraded several eurozone countries after it was established in March last year that the permanent European rescue fund ESM would have preferred status over other creditors.

While it opted not to follow suit this time around, it said it put further pressure on weaker parts of the eurozone.
"The prospect of effective subordination may lead investors to expect higher coupons in order to compensate for this additional risk, which in turn may have negative consequences for a sovereign's debt sustainability and therefore may increase the likelihood of a sovereign default."

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...mr-browne.html

Please Read Article And Watch Video...

Two months before I was born, on September 30, 1970, Harry Browne appeared on "Firing Line" with CIA operative, William F. Buckley Jr. For those unaware, Harry Browne was an American free-market libertarian writer and publisher of "Harry Browne's Special Report", a financial newsletter he published from 1974-1997.

In the debate between Browne and economist Eliot Janeway, Browne outlines the premise in his book, “How You Can Profit From the Coming Devaluation”, and states that:

“Looking at the world as it is, looking at the position the government has painted itself into. After 30 years of inflation, and I’m saying that as an act of economic desperation they will one day devalue the dollar and renege on the promise to foreign governments to pay 1 ounce of gold for every $35 turned in at the treasury.”

THE END GAME
In fact, there is no way out for this system now. Debt levels, and a government in the US who has stated that they will have $1 trillion+ deficits until the end of the decade, all but ensure a nuclear event.
Either the dollar will enter hyperinflation and reach its intrinsic value, resulting in a collapse of the US Government. Or the US Government will have to collapse. Socialist Security will have to be officially reneged on, and most other government programs, including the US military industrial complex will have to be downsized by 80%. The second option, government collapse, is not an easy option for politicians who will be strung up in the streets by an entitlement dependent population... so, like almost every other time in history, the currency will be sacrificed.
As the dollar goes from being worth less to being worthless, the majority of US citizens will be eating catfood and riots and chaos will reign on the streets. The government will try to convince them that the rising cost of living is all caused by "corporate greed" or the Iranians... or the Chinese. What happens then is anyone's guess, but we don't intend to be around to find out.
Until then, we feel a bit like Mr. Browne. Many people claim we are being "alarmist"... many state that we are "pessimists". We're neither. Just like Mr. Browne, we're just trying to alert people to the situation and offer some advice on how best to survive and prosper the collapse of the US dollar and western monetary system.
The remedy remains the same. Gold and silver. But the extent to which government debt has expanded also means that even more extreme measures are necessary. Mr. Browne never saw a fascist police state like the one that has been building in the US. He never saw cash sniffing dogs at US international airports, checking Americans on the way out. He never saw the US Government all but make it impossible for Americans to open international brokerage accounts and soon international bank accounts.
http://www.dollarvigilante.com/stora...=1330132178414Now, on top of precious metals, it is important to geopolitically internationalize your assets... to get a second passport to avoid confiscation... and to consider your own government as the biggest threat to your life, liberty and possessions. The US President who ran on the platform of closing Guantanamo Bay and who signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) enabling indefinite detention of US citizens has further shown the direction in which the US is headed.
Things have changed since 1970 Mr. Browne. Now it's not just about salvation of your wealth but salvation of yourself.

Government is good at one thing: It knows how to break your legs, hand you a crutch, and say, "See, if it weren't for the government, you wouldn't be able to walk." - Harry Browne


I couldnt have said it better myself

Now the question arises, which currency will you be holding your account in this year?

I just finished listenting to the entire interview and I have to say that I was shocked. I was not surprised though knowing what I know today.

On August 15, 1971 Richard Milhous Nixon made a decision with others of course to announce to the World that effective immediately US Dollars could no longer be exchanged for Gold.

This ONE EVENT started the World to where it is now.

Once Gold was NO LONGER a Barometer to Inflation as after Volcker raised Interest Rates in the USA to over 20% to deal with Inflation and Gold Hit the All Time High near $850 US during 1980 then after Gold was pushed down to near $250 US by a NEW PLAN created during the Clinton Era with Larry Summers one of the Principal developers of the NEW RULES.

They first had to ELIMINATE Glass-Steagel and they DID during 1999.

Gold started it's rise from $250 to Where it is now at $1,775 US

By allowing the same conditions to come back that were dealt with during 1933 with the creation of Glass-Steagel we witnessed the MELTDOWN during September 2008.

Just watch the Video either FOR THE FIRST TIME or for the second time if you have not seen it and I STRONGLY suggest that you do if you want the TRUTH in your life today whether you can do anything about it at least be aware and understand.

After listening to the 10 Minutes Plus of the Interview you can see there is three intelligent men with strong views.

The so called Alarmist was proven to be right based on events from then until this moment.

GATA has become the NEW ALARMIST however now with the Internet Age and the flow of information around the world in seconds instead of a limited number of people watching that one interview the situation has changed drastically and for the better.

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER only if the Knowledge is used.

Read The Dollar Collapse Article from Jeff Berwick and ASK YOURSELF this question ?

Will I be Browne or Janaway ?

The Decision is yours. I welcome all comments on this topic that will change your life regardless of what you do. Prepare yourself and your family and leave the Family of Sheep and become one of the Family of educated intelligent humans with common sense and a clear understanding of the world we all live in. The GOVERNMENT are not your friends. It is ALL about WEALTH and POWER !!!

We The People Can Still Stop The New World Order as long as we understand and stand up for our rights.

G-D Bless

Kno

From what I can tell, based on the underlying fundamentals, the move up in EUR/USD is due to an imbalanced weakness in the JPY.

As the JPY was sold off, it was used to buy more EUR than USD.

This potentially indicates that the EUR was possibly the most favored currency for the Japanese to buy. However, this theory is potentially flawed because how do we really know that it was Japanese who were selling the JPY? Perhaps it was the European banks who were selling it, and they were selling it in order to repatriate cash to cushion themselves for the imminent write downs on the Greek haircut. How would we ever know? Well in fact unless it is reported as such, we simply won't. Even if it is reported as such, should we blindly believe it?

When I look at how currency pairs move, I do it in lots of 3 pairs. In this example it is USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and the one that act as a cross between them, the EUR/USD. Okay that was too obvious and besides, calling the EUR/USD a cross may be confusing to some. So let's use another example. EUR/USD & GBP/USD produces a cross or EUR/GBP.

Okay now that you get the trio concept, here's how I look at it.

Condition: EUR/USD = Bullish, GBP/USD = Bullish, EUR/GBP = Flat
Indication: EUR = Flat, GBP = Flat, USD = Bearish
or
Indication: EUR = Bullish, GBP = Bullish, USD = Flat

Condition: EUR/USD = Bullish, GBP/USD = Bullish, EUR/GBP = Bearish
Indication: EUR = Bullish, GBP = Very Bullish, USD = Flat
or
Indication: EUR = Flat, GBP = Bullish, USD = Bearish

Based on the two examples I show above, the recent action of the EUR/JPY, USD/JPY & EUR/USD pairs, give us the following indications...

1. EUR = Very Bullish, USD = Bullish, JPY=Bearish
or
2. EUR = Bullish, USD = Flat, JPY = Very Bearish
However, one only has to take a look at the performance of the USD Index to determine which indication is correct.
Yep that's right. The correct indication = #1 (EUR = Bullish, USD = Flat, JPY = Very Bearish). Therefore this is not about the Euro but rather about the Yen.

In consideration of the above, stating that the EUR/JPY will pull up the EUR/USD is not always correct.

For example, if the EUR was flat and the USD was Bullish and the JPY was bearish, the EUR/USD would fall and the EUR/JPY would rise.

Hope that was clear enough

Sometimes I scratch my head and wonder what world some of you live in...For instance I see people smashing Obama and Government, but what I will point out is what has any REPUBLICAN President in the last 40 years done for the U.S. let alone the world? Every person in this "world" should have a standard of living and it should not be based on how much money you are making per month. We can have a capitalistic society without having poverty but what were dealing with is GREED on every single level. Do you guys understand that we have 2 sides of Government...We have the DEMS and the REPUBS...I constantly hear all of these people talk about less Government this and less Government that but what HUMANS are not understanding is that their ALL Government!! The U.S.A has never been a wonderful country and if you think it has your no different from the GREEDY savages we have running the country. I will say this as LOUD as I can...PRESIDENT OBAMA IS NOT IN CHARGE OF SHIT!!! The only thing he can do is rally like minded Americans to sway congress to get shit done, but what happens when a standard level of Health Care bill gets put into congress? Someone starts hollering about GRANDMA getting killed deliberately using scare tactics to scare the paranoid W Americans!! Some of you just do not get it...READ all of your articles and look at all the scare tactics being put in them. USA collapse? LMAO!! We are in a new ERA!! Not happening!! Only BABY BOOMERS think like that!! The WHOLE FINANCIAL MARKET IS A LIE & if you need me to show you proof PM your email and I'll type it up for you in a simple way that you cannot refute....And BTW the US has been headed nowhere but to the same place its been...Look at the education system? GARBAGE!! Look at the Health Care system! GARBAGE!! People do not even have civil rights in America, if they did people would not be getting the shit beat out of the by the Police for protesting. Do you guys honestly think every word your typing on the internet isnt being recorded and monitored your CRAZY!! Muslims in New York colleges being monitored? WTF? My last RANT...If I here another person talk about the deficit under Obama I might lose it..lol..It is pure IGNORANCE to think a President who can't even get simple bills through congress can also be involved in the destruction of America..You want to look into some real articles? Look into when this deficit started because it was under REAGAN!! Do you guys ever wondered how Bush got all types of things passed? Like minds think alike...All of congress is invested in the financial system and their all rich...Now if you have a President that is willing to take regulations off of the financial market your ensuring that congress will be highly profiting from it. People talk about jobs and taxes...well most of congress are business owners...do you honestly think their going to be passing legislation to cut their own arms off? I think not!! Now should I go on a Rant about Corporations and the rights of individuals in the work place? I urge some of you to open some of your eyes because every facet of GOVERNMENT in every Country is corrupt!! LMAO@ using American tax payer dollars on the financial market and then turn around and talk about how we do not pay federal taxes..get real!! As long as Americans are paying taxes and we have the financial market the US is not going anywhere let alone any other country.

I chased this answer for a long ... Thank you PT for this fish-bone analysis

Excellent article IE, I've seen in the State level some of the Govt. tries to provide some helping hand to the ordinary people, cleaning of roads, hospital facilities, schools but then the efforts got restricted by the nation leads, the people controls the finance of a country are the key of corruption. A bank which controls other banks is the main enemy of the ordinary people.

Ever wondered, a Bank is actually securing the growth of your savings or only has the intention to have your money for doing its own business and in return paying you nuts?!

By providing you Loans ...eating your money for long term !?

By the name of help, quick, easy a Bank sucks your wealth ?!

When you try to sell your Gold or apply for Gold Loan what they offer you?!

Our social life is controlled by money --- > you good or bad, your honor, justice to you, facility to you all decides by the amount of money you have ---> World Bank and all other national Banks lives with your money and by the name of providing you facility and security they socially rob you with interest and bank charges ---> They control Govt. Govt. play with your conception by means of socialism your hard work and efforts gone as tax.

By providing tax we help Govt officials to have secure and fat-salary ... nation leaders spends money in the name of security and drag the nation to a war zone by inflation and debt.

You got to my point in your final conclusions. I agree with ALL your comments. What I am now seeing is that USD/JPY now becomes another factor to watch. If it continues up towards 90.00 or back to 75.00 it will have influence on the other associated currencies. I think we now have a good overview of the issues at hand.

Thanks for your comprehensive complete reply.

If USD/JPY went to 78.00 again. It shows at 81.19 now then where would EUR/JPY probably go if USD/JPY goes down 319 PIPS ? Give a number for EUR/JPY and then I can estimate where EUR/USD will probably be. This answer can be seen more clearly if some charts were used of past movements.

Let's see where we go with this ? Thanks...

For example, if the EUR was flat and the USD was Bullish and the JPY was bearish, the EUR/USD would fall and the EUR/JPY would rise .

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120225160196/

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Let's Read It All... Good Information getting us ready for Sunday...

Weekly Review and Outlook

Euro Strength, Yen Weakness Dominated, More to Come?

Euro's rally and yen's decline dominated the markets last week. The common currency was lifted as Greece finally secured the second bailout. Also, markets have been bidding up Euro ahead of this week's send long term LTRO from ECB. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen's fall accelerated on BoJ QE expectations as well as strength in crude oil. Markets were rather dull elsewhere though, as dollar was bounded in range against sterling and commodity currencies. Momentum in stock markets was unconvincing as DOW struggled to close above 13000 level. However, commodities have been impressively strong as CRB index gapped above 319 resistance and has never looked back since then. Crude oil also managed to extend recent rise and accelerated to close close to 110. Technically, the sustainability of Euro's rally is not confirmed yet but yen's reversal looks real. We'd expect more selloff in the Japanese in near term but would be cautious on sign of loss of momentum in common currency.

EU finance ministers eventually approved the second Greek bailout package. The deal requires Greece to bring its debt down to 120.5% of GDP by 2020 from over 164% currently. The agreed reduction was similar to what was requested by the IMF. Moreover, according to Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, private sector bondholders were expected to incur losses of 53.5% of nominal face value of their Greek bond holdings, up from the previously expected 50.0% nominal write-down. The interest that Greece needs to pay for the first bailout package was lowered to 1.5% over market rates from 2-3% about market rates previously agreed. Moreover, the ECB and the 17 central banks in the Eurozone also agreed to forego profits on their Greek debt holdings. These measures aim to 'further improve the sustainability of Greece's public debt'.

Following the approval, Greece launched the private sector bond swap offer on Friday and the program targets to write-down as much as EUR 100b off it's debt. The Greek Finance Ministry noted that at least 90% of the aggregate face amount of all bonds is needed to participate in the PSI. If the participation is between 75% and 90%, Greece might activate the collective-action clauses and that might in turn trigger CDS. Greece will determine whether the take-up rate from investors is enough for the debt deal to proceed by March 9 while actual swap will take place on March 12. IIF managing director Dallara said he's "quit optimistic" on a high take up among bondholders. But all eyes will be on market responses in the next two weeks.

Also support Euro last week was the anticipation and speculations ahead of this week's second LTRO from ECB. In the first operation in December, over 500 banks tapped EUR 489b in three year cheap loans from ECB.

There have been expectation that this time, banks might get as much as EUR 1T, but such overshoot expectations then scaled back to around EUR 500b level. The impact to the market is a bit tricky. Some economists said that if the take up is smaller than expected, the impact would be short term bullish and medium term bearish in Euro. On the other hand, if the take up is larger than expected, the impact would be short term bearish and medium term bullish in Euro.

Yen's selloff was another major theme last week. Yen weakness started earlier this month after BoJ announced a clear 1% inflation goal. The target is seen as paving the way to more aggressive quantitative easing from the bank. So far, BoJ lagged behind Fed and ECB in expanding their balance sheets since 2008 finance crisis. Thus, in spite of BoJ's various effort including intervention, it failed to halt yen's up trend. However, the situation could now be different as there is a clear inflation target.

Moreover, based on current inflation outlook. BoJ indeed has more scope to expand quantitative easing then any other major central banks. It's speculated that BoJ's QE program could top as much as JPY 100T in 2012.
As discussed during the week, crude oil's rally was seen as another factors in yen's selloff. Japan posted record trade deficit in January, with steep fall in exports to China. Meanwhile, as an oil import country and an export led economy, Japan is facing additional pressure from recent rally in oil prices. After, last year's natural disaster in Japan, only 5 out of 54 nuclear reactors are staying in operation and thus increasing the demand for energy imports. This, coupled by strength in oil prices, will likely worsen the trade balance of the country.

Elsewhere, BOE minutes for the February meeting unveiled that 2 (Adam Posen and David Miles) out of 9 members opted for more expansion in asset purchases than decided. The 2 dissenters to the current monetary policy saw a risk of a prolonged period of depressed demand which would cause inflation to fall materially below target in the medium-term. Also, the expected that further easing would alleviate the risks of increasing unemployment. The news raised speculations that the central may increase the amount of asset buying in May. More in BOE Minutes Unveiled 2 Member Favored More Asset Purchases.

The RBA released minutes for the February meeting, explaining reasons for its decision to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%, instead of a reduction of -25 bps as expected by the market. The central banks appeared comfortable with the domestic economic developments though these might also be affected by the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. It appears that the central bank will stand on the sideline in coming months but we are still of the view that a rate cut will materialize later this year especially if he AUD continues its recent advance. More in RBA Feels Comfortable With Current Monetary Stance As Growth Will Be Close To Trend.

The Week Ahead
Initial focus of the week will be on reactions to G20 meeting in Mexico City during the weekend. European Union leaders would likely call for significant increase in the resources available to the IMF to help the region fight the debt crisis. IMF spokesman said that a global financial fire is needed to protect countries against contagion risks and that include "increase in IMF resources" to "supplement resources that the European authorities would put on the table." China, Japan and Brazil have made clear their willingness to contribute more, but US is still reluctant to commit. The negotiation could likely drag on until at least next meeting in April. Hence, reactions would likely be muted. Later in the Week, Fed chairman Bernanke will testify before Congressional panels on Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts expect Bernanke to remain cautiously optimistic on recovery while maintain Fed's stance to continue the ultra loose monetary policy. Of course, ECB's LTRO operation will be closely watched.

1. Monday: New Zealand trade balance; Eurozone M3; US pending home sales.

1. Tuesday: German Gfk consumer sentiment; Swiss employment level; UK CBI reported sales; US durables, consumer confidence; S&P Case Shiller hour price

1. Wednesday: Japan manufacturing PMI, industrial production, housing starts; Australia retail sales; Swiss KOF; German unemployment, Eurozone CPI; US GDP revision, Chicago PMI, Fed's Beige Book, Bernanke testimony

1. Thursday: China Manufacturing PMI; Swiss GDP, SVME PMI; UK manufacturing PMI; Eurozone unemployment; Canada current account, RMPI, IPPI; US jobless claims, persona income and spending, ISM manufacturing

1. Friday: Japan CPI, household spending, unemployment rate; UK construction PMI; Eurozone PPI; Canada GDP.

Well... Just don't how to start to tell this story... But i only can say... Wowww !!!! That's very unconditional love... And it is not a novel but really happening...

I just knew this couple from my friend.. This couple want to buy an apartment... One day they came to my office and i just thought this was only temporary deformity because an accident and it could be back to normal someday...

But, in fact.. The accident already happened for almost 20 years and they only 16 years old that time... After they first date, the boy got the accident and had permanent deformity which is couldn't walk anymore until now and have few sickness...

But the girl still accompany him and marry him whatever the situation until now...

Ўσυ know what, i got jealous when they can still stare each other lovely and care each other without feel shame...

Suddenly their friend asked me.. "I don't think ϋ could be like her... You must have a brave heart, unconditional heart" coz it's so hard to find people like this now...
And i thought that's right..

I just smile and wondering... I just don't know, but i really admire that woman.. i just realized somewhere somehow out there, there will be still a true love for every person if ϋ fight for it and love is not a game, but it is a gift which is we must keep it and take care of it...

it's not also about how much ϋ can buy, but how much ϋ can stand until the end whatever happened, whatever the temptation, whatever the situation, because there is no one perfect in this world... Ўσυ still can hold on together...

And i just smile again and again... Yup, i just do my best and all that i can, coz only God can do everything.... And smile so everything will be better and better.....

Live ur life, with passion, love, faith guys !!