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  • #1,021
  • Feb 22, 2012 5:34pm Feb 22, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
i am noo prof. trader but boy,this stuff really interests me.
thanks mate.
it does make sense..

PS : missed my entry on EG by 4 pips. .(entry was 0.8410)
the setup had good probabilty of working out.
i will wait for pull back
Yep, exact same place I had my EG order.

I used to get sort of upset about things like this. Now I am excited to see that I once again agreed with the market I just didn't get it at a good enough bargain to make it worth my while, so on to the next.
  • #1,022
  • Feb 23, 2012 5:05am Feb 23, 2012 5:05am
Quoting AvanishDemo
i am noo prof. trader but boy,this stuff really interests me.
thanks mate.
it does make sense..

PS : missed my entry on EG by 4 pips. .(entry was 0.8410)
the setup had good probabilty of working out.
i will wait for pull back
No worries, glad it helps.

0.8410 - looking for the immediate retest?

It's such a clear area this one is definitely on my watchlist for the future.
  • #1,023
  • Feb 23, 2012 5:24am Feb 23, 2012 5:24am
Quoting lovejoy80
No worries, glad it helps.

0.8410 - looking for the immediate retest?

It's such a clear area this one is definitely on my watchlist for the future.
As well as 0.805 area we also have an interesting area above current price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eg.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #1,024
  • Feb 23, 2012 6:57am Feb 23, 2012 6:57am
Whilst waiting for NY open I thought I'd quickly share the reasoning behind my tweet this morning that I was shorting EJ and EU.

Just a caveat that this is aside from my main trading i.e. it's the main way I trade to make money it's just using my existing knowledge to pick up some pips now and again when I have the time.

Okay, firstly look at the locations of EU and EJ.

1. EU is approaching a big wall of resistance IMO starting with the monthly bar open shown - you can see these monthly S/R's clearly on the daily TF.

2. EJ is also approaching an important HTF S/R area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu-daily.jpg Size: 147 KB
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  • #1,025
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:05am Feb 23, 2012 7:05am
Quoting lovejoy80
Whilst waiting for NY open I thought I'd quickly share the reasoning behind my tweet this morning that I was shorting EJ and EU.

Just a caveat that this is aside from my main trading i.e. it's the main way I trade to make money it's just using my existing knowledge to pick up some pips now and again when I have the time.

Okay, firstly look at the locations of EU and EJ.

1. EU is approaching a big wall of resistance IMO starting with the monthly bar open shown - you can see these monthly S/R's clearly on the daily TF.

2. EJ is also approaching...
At the same time as the above is happening we also have:

1. USDx hitting a good support area

2. EURx hitting the big 105 area.

3. S&P Futures back retesting the monthly S/R as resistance.

Now anyone who knows anything about the broader market knows how global risk sentiment is related to the USD, JPY and EUR and what the location of price on these three charts is telling us about what will most likely happen to EU and EJ off their S/R areas.

This is what I call 'correlated confluence' and it is a powerful tool if used correctly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,026
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:08am Feb 23, 2012 7:08am
Quoting lovejoy80
At the same time as the above is happening we also have:

1. USDx hitting a good support area

2. EURx hitting the big 105 area.

3. S&P Futures back retesting the monthly S/R as resistance.

Now anyone who knows anything about the broader market knows how global risk sentiment is related to the USD, JPY and EUR and what the location of price on these three charts is telling us about what will most likely happen to EU and EJ off their S/R areas.

This is what I call 'correlated confluence' and it is a powerful tool if used correctly.
and this is the result in terms of what happened to EU and EJ - they both strongly reacted at the resistance areas mentioned and fell to clear FLS's.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,027
  • Feb 23, 2012 8:29am Feb 23, 2012 8:29am
Mark,

Those trades like the EU and EJ are a little tricky to learn, but once you get them down you feel nothing can hold you back and for the first time in your life you are finally FREE.

I kept looking at the EU and EJ and watching the EURX. I just wasn't comfortable trading just on correlations and against such a strong surge. How "new" of me. I have to learn to trust myself, but also this takes time. At least this trade I could see coming, I just wasn't 100% confident nor was I sure of where to get in. But I can see now by looking at your charts and I feel my confidence growing.

This must be how the big guys trade, simple S/R, correlations, and just a simple understanding of how the markets move (nothing goes i a straight line forever).

I advice everyone to look over these charts closely and to compare the time of the day the EURX hit resistence. It is all right there.

Thank you Mark.
  • #1,028
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:28am Feb 23, 2012 11:28am
As per my tweet earlier, I shorted NCHF.

Chart to members last night detailing the setup (HTF Breakout FTB is one of the simplest price action methods I use - it's all detailed in the forum so everyone knows what I'm looking at and how to trade it by this chart).

My trade result is shown below. I took partial profit ahead of the final TP - the market is extremely choppy and this pair is largely driven by risk sentiment hence can easily reverse at any point given the choppiness of the broader market (equities were also bouncing hard from strong support areas).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: nchftrade.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #1,029
  • Edited 2:54pm Feb 23, 2012 12:55pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting lovejoy80
No worries, glad it helps.

0.8410 - looking for the immediate retest?

It's such a clear area this one is definitely on my watchlist for the future.
yeah i will wait for retest @ 0.8407/10 level.

0.85 EG looks ok-ok/fine but i am skipping it..

watchout for CadChf 0.9000


EDIT:ok letme guess EURO rising bcos Greece accepted the debt swap deal?
  • #1,030
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:46pm Feb 23, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
yeah i will wait for retest @ 0.8407/10 level.

0.85 EG looks ok-ok/fine but i am skipping it..

watchout for CadChf 0.9000


EDIT:ok letme guess EURO rising bcos Greece accepted the debt swap deal?
I've had this chart in my dropbox since 10th Feb

CHF been incredibly strong last few days. If this triggers tonight I won't be around to take it so hopefully it will hold up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADCHF.png Size: 42 KB
  • #1,031
  • Feb 23, 2012 5:42pm Feb 23, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting AvanishDemo
yeah i will wait for retest @ 0.8407/10 level.

0.85 EG looks ok-ok/fine but i am skipping it..

watchout for CadChf 0.9000


EDIT:ok letme guess EURO rising bcos Greece accepted the debt swap deal?
I'm passing on EG too, the S/R is not clear enough for me, might watch the LTF's if get the time.

EU rising this evening cos off:

(a) The agreement being reached with the Greece debt swap deal - all is ok with the world now

(b) some major SL's getting triggered above the 1.3340 level.

(c) US treasury auction caused some USD weakness

(d) Major EG buying helps to keep EUR generally pretty strong.

None of this affected my trading or made me want to trade anything cos if it though. Just good to keep an eye what is going on in the markets.

I took a partial loss on EG short today (will post chart tomorrow) as nothing could hold the Euro down today.
  • #1,032
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:24am Feb 24, 2012 1:24am
I missed this one last night as was away doing other things when multiple price alerts went off, by time I'd realised and looked at al the alerts it was too late UJ had already hit the entry area (I still have a position from 78.20 with a 25 pip SL though).

As usual here's the chart to members way before the event and the chart after. FLR easily hit then BOOM the strength of the current trend takes over!

I know someone in the trading room who took this with a 9 pip SL and is still in this trade, couldn't be happier for them ... that's how we roll!

When you realise the order flow and market dynamics at breakouts and what is happening when price comes back to clear, concise S/R areas with certain characteristics you realise that there is a high probability of price reacting here. Combine that with the type of trade management that I 'preach' all the time (not banking all profits at FLR's which I see people do all the time on these forums) and this is what could happen.

It's when people realise the above they realise the power of pure price action trading (not to be confused with what most retail traders consider price action trading) and don't look back - it is afterall how the big players trade!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,033
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:43am Feb 24, 2012 1:43am
This is something that retail traders generally don't like to see when trading S/R's - look at how UJ was moving into our buy area with relatively HIGH momentum- it's only natural to be put off by this, strong selling means a lower chance of it bouncing right?

But this is totally wrong, once you understand what is going on at these areas you know that it's exactly what we are looking for as it means the type of order flow that we want is occurring and that a 'reaction' is a high probability.

Go back and look over multiple pairs where price had had a breakout and come back to these areas with this characteristic and you'll know what I mean.

So ask yourself this:

1. Would you have taken a trade where price was moving relatively fast into the S/R?
2. Would you have taken the pure touch of this area?
3. Would you still be in at least part of a position if you took this trade?

It's when you can answer yes to the above that you'll long on your way to being a great trader, if you can't then go and look at your charts for hours, looking at setups like this until you 'get it'.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj6.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,034
  • Feb 24, 2012 4:46am Feb 24, 2012 4:46am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've had this chart in my dropbox since 10th Feb

CHF been incredibly strong last few days. If this triggers tonight I won't be around to take it so hopefully it will hold up
Hi LJ,

if i might ask why the odd number at 9008 instead of 0.9 + spread?
  • #1,035
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:09am Feb 24, 2012 5:09am
Quoting miracle16
Hi LJ,

if i might ask why the odd number at 9008 instead of 0.9 + spread?
If you look at the daily bars into this area in the past you can see that price has reacted @ 0.9002 / 0.9006 / 0.9008 i.e.these are the highest prices (but still within the 'zone') where price has reacted - thus I tend to put my order at the first potential price that might cause a reaction.

Also often where RN's are involved orders will start building up just above - hence why at times you see price not quite hitting the RN (especially if there is a big option barrier in play too) so I tend to put my order just above RN's.

There is a bit more too it than that but the above summarises my approach.
  • #1,036
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:57am Feb 24, 2012 7:57am
A missed opportunity this morning through me being a bit lazy in my analysis. Some may not understand this but I can assure you it is simple once you have the knowledge of risk sentiment and spend some time watching charts:

1. GBP/NZD - daily S/R.

2. Price forms a 4HR BUOB closing back above the daily S/R/

3. Now my initial thought was to enter on the retrace to this daily area as this is an obvious area to expect bids if price is going to rise further but having looked at the EURGBP 4HR BEOB at the same time I deemed the latter to be easily technically superior on a much cleaner less choppy pair so opted out of GNZD.

Take a look at how EG has fared to GNZD....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,037
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:58am Feb 24, 2012 7:58am
Now, this is what my analysis should have been:

1. US equities are at double tops and YM in particular is at the key 13k psychological level - clearly with the DT pattern and the levels it is more likely price will be falling from here rather than pushing through - especially prior to NY open.

2. USDx is sitting on a good support level

So what does this tell me - it tells me to expect some bearish risk sentiment.

If you understand risk sentiment and it's correlation with currencies you'll know that this means (amongst other things) to expect a strong GBP and EUR versus the higher yielding commodity currencies (investors buy higher yielding / riskier currencies during positive risk sentiment and the opposite during negative risk sentiment).

Hence this is CONFLUENCE to the GBPNZD 4HR BUOB and thus although EG was technically more appealing - despite GNZD being a choppy pair with little space (compared to EG) above that bar, price has soared after the retrace and not looked back.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,038
  • Feb 24, 2012 8:06am Feb 24, 2012 8:06am
The above was just an example of looking at the bigger picture and using risk sentiment as confluence to a technical setup.

One thing I find with retail traders is that they are very narrow minded in that they have one main approach to trading and consider everything else aggressive or useless.

It's when I started to not think like this and more about the broader market and whether I could pull in useful information from other sources that I started to make some serious gains as a trader. I'm all for keeping things simple, but the more information you have at your disposal the more chance you have of making informed decisions and spotting plenty setups day after day.

Aside from this - take a look at the below this is a snapshot of one of my MT4 profiles - the charts are arranged like this so I can see at a glance how GBP is faring against the commodity currencies - as stated in the previous post these pairs are linked to risk sentiment so watching them all together gives you some good information about the broader market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP versus commod.png Size: 36 KB
  • #1,039
  • Feb 24, 2012 8:14am Feb 24, 2012 8:14am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've had this chart in my dropbox since 10th Feb

CHF been incredibly strong last few days. If this triggers tonight I won't be around to take it so hopefully it will hold up
Took a partial loss on this one circa 0.5R.

I didn't take the loss cos I couldn't face the size of the £ loss that it would be, I took it because the way price is moving is indicative of further falls as its close below the RN area and previous lows on the 4HR TF - there has been no 'bounce' that I'd expect above the RN - hence the probability of price now bouncing is much less than it was when I entered the trade - so it's illogical to leave the same amount of risk in play for a trade that is now a much lower probability setup.

The big bullish move down was just too much for this level - those multiple bearish daily bars were a warning sign to be more cautious than usual - that coupled with the fact the CHF is across the broader market and not just this pair.

But losses happen and are a necessity in trading (this might sound an odd statement but think about it).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cadchf.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #1,040
  • Edited 10:33am Feb 26, 2012 9:50am | Edited 10:33am
it was a disappointing week.
i took a lil more loss than expected as i was waiting for price to reverse despite having worrisome drawdowns..Probability was good so i thought these strong moves may give reverse as friday is usually profit taking.

Risk was 2.8% set and cut out for 1.75%.(ofcourse its demo.)
1.75 is too mch for me.i had chance to cut it out for 1% but i kept 'hoping' and screwed it up.sometimes u never know which is the best time and place to cut out the trade
.
Even on Cadchf trade when the h4 bar closed below 0.90 i still ws in the trade 'hoping' it will give a false breakout and CA 0.90 at the end of the day.but finally i cut out after feeling uncomfortable.i lost a lil more on EurCad.

Anyways,
Trades this week:
CadChf 0.9000 failed.
EurCad 1.34 also failed.

EG,Oil did not tick my entries.

Oil 103.35 is strong PPZ so i had plan to keep this long term trade as fundamentals were strong.

Since these orders did not tick my entries,i got aggresive on CadChf,EurCad and got burned.

what more disappointing is that winning trades did not fill my orders while losing trades filled my orders.

dont wanna discuss abt it anymore,

i am posting here since October but i actually started taking level-trading 'seriously' since end of december,best to learn and avoid extra-losses.surely does not deter my confidence.
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