EurAnalysis

Wow! Interesting times.

http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...0120222159911/

Snippet:

Daily Report: Yen Selloff Continues as Crude Oil Extends Rally

Market's focus is turning back to yen selling today as USD/JPY breaches 80 psychological level. BoJ's ultra easing monetary policy is factor that contributes recent weakness in the Japanese yen and is there to stay.

Another yen selling reason emerged earlier this week after Japan posted record trade deficit in January, with steep fall in exports to China. Meanwhile, as an oil import country and an export led economy, Japan is facing additional pressure from recent rally in oil prices. After, last year's natural disaster in Japan, only 5 out of 54 nuclear reactors are staying in operation and thus increasing the demand for energy imports. This, coupled by strength in oil prices, where WTI crude oil is trading above 106 for the moment, will likely worsen the trade balance of the country. WTI looks likely to test 114/115 level in near term based on current momentum and that could help take USD/JPY towards 85 level.

Elsewhere markets are pretty steady as European majors are generally stuck in range against dollar. Dollar index is hovering around 79 level for the moment. DOW breached 13000 level briefly overnight but failed to sustain gain above there. CRB commodity index, on the other hand, was impressively strong overnight and jumped 1.6% to close at 322.45. We'd like to point out that firstly, even though stocks and crude oil are both strong, such strength is not reflected in Canadian dollar as USD/CAD is holding above 0.99 level so far. Indeed, some weakness is see in AUD/USD which extended recent pullback in spite of strength in commodities.

On the data front, HSBC china manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7 in February but stayed below 50. Eurozone PMIs will be a main focus in European session and are expected to show mild improvements. BoE will release meeting minutes but given that the quarterly inflation report was already released last week, today's minutes might trigger little reaction to markets only. From US, main focus is in existing home sales which is expected to rise slightly to 4.65m in January.

Thats just a photo, it's a lie.

I live in Spain, and the only thing you could do with the old pesetas is carring them to the central bank and change them into euros.

Maybe that's a photo from a regional market, where most of people don't changed the letters, thats all

The photo is probably from the introduction of the Euro when things were priced in both, from a journalists view its not a lie its just a relative truth. The article focuses on alternative means of payment saying that trading things and services has been more common.

Edit: They mention Acambiode.com and the problem of taxation when it comes to exchange of services.

One day I will go to Spain. I love Spanish Women. Good Morning.

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.EUR/USD intraday: rebound expected.Pivot: 1.3175.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1.3175 with 1.329 & 1.332 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.3175 will call for a slide towards 1.311 & 1.308.

Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50%.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0122138361.GIF

EUR/USD dives after Germany PMI
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/imag...ar02Medium.gifThe EUR/USD climbed to 1.3264 session high ahead of Germany PMIs only to plunge on the actual data. Although a rise was expected in both manufacturing and services publications, to 51.5 and 53.9 respectively, data dropped from 51.0 to 50.1 (manufacturing) and from 53.7 to 52.6 (services).

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...k-debt-default

Snippet:

The global financial system is not a game of checkers. It is a game of chess. All over the world today, news headlines are proclaiming that this new Greek debt deal has completely eliminated the possibility of a chaotic Greek debt default. Unfortunately, that is simply not the case. Rather, the truth is that this new deal actually "sets the table" for a Greek debt default. When I was studying and working in the legal arena, I learned that sometimes you make an agreement so that you can get the other side to break it. That may sound very strange to the average person on the street, but this is how the game is played at the highest levels. It is all about strategy. And in this case, the new debt deal imposes such strict conditions on Greece that it is almost inevitable that Greece will fail to meet some of them. When Greece does fail, Germany and the other northern European nations may try to claim that they "did everything that they could" but that Greece just did not "live up to its obligations". So does this mean that we will definitely see a chaotic Greek debt default? No. What this does mean is that the chess pieces are being moved into position for one.

The following are 8 reasons why the Greek debt deal may not stop a chaotic Greek debt default....

So don't be fooled by all the headlines.
A chaotic Greek debt default has not been averted.
The truth is that a chaotic Greek debt default is now closer than ever.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...lt-440x293.jpg

well e/u got through the night without moving but the trade i made with g/u took 50 pips, i closed position before the support and as i had more than 40 pips i am happy.I can stick the chart on if you want but it is quite easy to see on a 4 hour chart AND the directional movement was spot on. take care

morning buddy. with DM chart. i do have rsi on it, it is like furniture. i dont actually work off it but take the occassional glance.cci? i think that is more commodites but it looks similar to an ADX line which i do have on chart. I keep it simple my friend. Some people say add a parabolic sar. i believe you cannot have too much info but when you see some charts full o of lines like the night sky full of fire works well to me its ridiculous. i also have a 21 day ema on chart.i am quite happy to remove the rsi and ema and also take note please dont listen to hearsay talk off people in the news. trade the charts. take care

Excellent set up Bill ! In H4 chart with your set up usually how many pips you target as TP? Cheers!

Seems like the newspapper just ripped a Reuters article.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81J0NJ20120220

So do the Spanish Men and they are VERY protective...

goodmorning rekon67,i have to admit that i have big problems with my inside bar profit taking lol.the big boys who trade this way usually on daily or 4 hour time frame normally go for 3/1 or 4/1 ratio and to keep this answer simple they will let the trade go to the support/resistance level. my normal trading (not ib or dm) i go for 40 pips and i am successful and i do compound. With ib and dm i cannot get out of the 40 pip take profit lol. early today i actually took 50ish pips on g/u but i also compounded it after 20 pip gain. so in real terms when i say i made 50 pips it was 70 pips. i have been studying the dm with a 15 min time frame and 4 hour. The 15 min looks good to get into a good trade.

I thought you were 69!!

Hello London

Miss Ya Billyt reckon Pt and Other

I will turn 69 this December 31, 2012 and I am a numbers man and love keeps you young. One of my good friends is 25 and she speaks Spanish as well as Italian and French. I just woke up and all is good. Breakfast, reading of local newspapers and back to my monitors to watch the world unfold. This has become a very nice community and it always makes me happy to post here. Take care an be well and happy.

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...r-of-gold.html

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GOLD IS IN A BUBBLE
Of course, now, with gold over $1,700, it is nearly impossible to get anyone from the general public to buy gold. It's gone too high, they cry! CNBC says it was a bubble, they repeat like trained seals.
It's gone from near $300 to nearly $2,000 in the last decade. Surely that is a bubble and if it hasn't already popped it soon will, right?
No. That's not right. This is the problem with watching the value of anything in terms of constantly depreciating US Federal Reserve Notes. In the following chart, when looking at the price of gold in nominal dollar terms it looks like an insane rocket ride of epic proportions. But, when adjusted by the US Government's own, heavily massaged inflation statistic (the Consumer Price Index, or CPI), the price of gold has just finally reached nearly the same level it was at in 1980 and looks far less spectacular.

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/stora...=1329875470127

http://mises.org/daily/5890/Bailing-...s-Inflationary

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Since then investors have learned that central banks will provide banks with any amount of base money needed to keep them afloat. Indeed, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has ramped up banks' excess reserves to close to $1.5 trillion, while in the eurozone the European Central Bank (ECB) has raised it to close to €700 billion.

http://images.mises.org/5890/Figure3.png



This, in turn, has led to a decline in credit, or default, risk in bank debt denominated in domestic currency from the viewpoint of investors: under the current monetary policy of providing unlimited amounts of base money, investors can expect to receive their nominal money invested in bank debentures and deposits.
Lately, however, eurozone banks have come under increasing pressure as far as their US-dollar funding is concerned. Private investors are only willing to extend US-dollar credit to eurozone banks at elevated interest rates, if at all.

IV.

The increase in the base-money stock is far from being neutral. First and foremost, an increase in the (fiat) base-money supply is inflationary: it lowers the purchasing power of a money unit (below the level that would prevail had the money supply remained unchanged).
It benefits the early receivers of the new money at the expense of those receiving the new-money balances at a later point or not at all — as explained by the so-called Cantillon effect.
Such a rise in the money supply prevents market prices from adjusting to their true levels. For instance, if central banks extend additional base money to banks, the latter do not have to, say, sell assets (loans, securities, etc.) for refinancing purposes.
As a result, asset prices are being kept at prevailing (artificially elevated) levels. While banks and other asset holders enjoy a windfall profit, other investors are prevented from having the opportunity to buy assets at lower prices.
While a policy of increasing the base-money supply might avoid immediate output and employment losses by keeping banks afloat, preventing them from defaulting on their liabilities, the important question is whether such a policy will help restoring the economies back to health.
From the viewpoint of the Austrian School of economics, the answer is no. Ludwig von Mises showed that a boom-induced fiat money — and today all major currencies represent fiat money — can only be kept going by further and further increases in fiat money (or fiduciary media), created through bank circulation credit expansion, leading to artificially lowered market interest rates. He wrote,

A credit-expansion boom must unavoidably lead to a process which everyday speech calls the depression.… The depression is in fact the process of readjustment, of putting production activities anew in agreement with the given state of the market data.[6]

However, if it is the political goal is to prevent a depression — that is, a decline in the money stock due to defaulting banks and debt in general, accompanied by falling output and prices and rising unemployment — at all costs, ever greater amounts of debt will have to be monetized by central banks.

Kno's Comments:

WE can see what is really going on and where it ends.

Snippet:

A policy of unlimited increase in the base-money supply, if consequently pursued, would ultimately lead to a drastic debasement of the fiat currency. It could even lead to what Mises called a "crack-up boom" (in German: Katastrophenhausse), entailing the destruction of the fiat currency.
At some point,

The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap paper. Nobody wants to give away anything against them.[7]

Thorsten Polleit is Honorary Professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management. Send him mail. See Thorsten Polleit's article archives.
Comment on this article.
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http://news.goldseek.com/Speculative...1329835574.php



Below is an excerpt from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 19th February 2012.

Although it is a long way from being a mainstream view, over the past two months we've read several comments along the lines of: the financial world will soon be immersed in another 2008-style crisis, only worse. In some cases the commentator went as far as to suggest that the next crisis, which will probably soon begin, will make 2008 look like child's play. What, then, do we think are the odds of a 2008 repeat?

There's a high probability of another major financial crisis happening within the next three years. It is almost inevitable, because debt levels are higher now than they were in 2007 and because governments and central banks have stymied the corrective process with their many interventions. However, there is almost no chance that the next crisis will be similar to the last one, for the reason we cited a number of times during the course of last year in response to the "2008 repeat" forecasts that kept cropping up. Just to quickly recap, the monetary backdrop all but eliminated the potential for a 2008-style crisis last year.

The current monetary backdrop all but eliminates the potential for a 2008-style crisis anytime soon. In fact, a good argument could be made that the probability of a 2008 repeat is even lower now than it was at any time last year. The reason is that up until a couple of months ago the ECB was still implementing a tight monetary policy, thus partially negating the Fed's ultra-easy stance. The ECB has recently fallen into line with the Fed, which should pave the way for a large increase in the rate of euro inflation over the months ahead.

The following chart from Michael Pollaro's blog shows the contrast between the relatively slow rate of global monetary inflation that preceded the 2008 crisis and the current much-higher rate (the chart shows year-over-year rates of change in US$ supply (TMS2), euro supply and Yen supply). The rate of euro inflation is clearly still low, but as noted above it looks set to ramp up over the next few months due to the ECB's recent policy shift.

http://67.19.64.18/news/SpeculativeI...012/2-21si.png


So, if the next financial crisis won't look anything like the last one, what will it look like?

We can only guess. One possibility is that it will revolve around the disintegration of Europe's monetary union. Another possibility is that it will revolve around a general flight from government debt, including US Treasury debt (today's most popular "safe haven"). Whatever it looks like it will probably involve panic buying of gold and silver, because as time goes by the major central banks of the world are likely to become even quicker to resort to inflation in reaction to economic weakness -- up to the point where inflation is widely perceived to be "public enemy no.1".

Aside from the fact that it helps in the marketing of newsletters and other publications, there isn't any practical value in concocting detailed descriptions of what the 'coming crisis' will entail. Some people are bound to get lucky and guess right, but rather than relying on a lucky guess as to what the future holds in store it is better to rely on real-time analysis. There are always signs along the way that can help you steer in the right direction.