EurAnalysis

Billy

Did that chart keep climbing or did it come back on itself and recommence the climb. If so, do you have the picture for when it recommenced. Ignore me if its too much of a bother.....just curious.

Ta

that chart was running live, i just put on a slightly up to the minute chrart on 4 hour time frame. Watch the adx line going down and hopefully the red line will cross the green. I am not saying it will but i will trade it when it does. plus we are on a third inside bar at the moment tgis should prove fruitfull,,, hopefully lol

Kewl. Makes a lot of sense and actually adds to my trading style, ta. I trade the 5 minute charts but these little gems just add to an understanding of charts generally.

the g/u is looking good too. i trade on 15 min time frame when i get bored lol its good for scalping but every trend starts on a small time frame

I agree. Will have to watch that one if it comes back.

You have a very good and clear view of the issues at hand. You have informed me and I thank you.

The main point as you said is to be aware without emotion and trade your knowledge of the factors at play in the financial world.

I am glad that you have taken my objective discourse with the intent it is meant. In the finality, capitalism must globalise as its impulse dictates, it must establish real unfettered movement of capital as its systemic properties compel, and of course bubbles are its feature. We can profit from these. But most of all, your news keeps us informed. See my responses not as a criticism but as a filling out of the picture you paint, at the long term margins.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...central-banker

Snippet:

Even where financial repression might appear absent at first glance, it lurks in the regulatory shadows. This is particularly true of pension funds and insurance companies. In many cases major institutional investors have regulatory guidelines which, in effect, force them to purchase a certain portion of long-dated government bonds. It doesn’t matter whether or not such bonds offer an attractive yield, in nominal or real (inflation-adjusted) terms. No, if you’re required to hold them, you buy at any price.
For those who do have flexibility, there is no reason to buy what others are forced to hold. This is not a prediction as to when yields begin to rise again, and prices fall. In real terms (ie inflation/devaluation-adjusted) if not nominal, excessive debt and leverage imply that a major bond bear market is inevitable. As with many things, the timing is far from certain. Those who are confident that they can exit the theatre at the first whiff of smoke, escaping the conflagration, be my guest and buy government bonds. But don’t fool yourselves: You are speculating, not investing.
Cash may still provide liquidity, but please note that this is now ALL it provides. Cash is no longer a store of value, not when central bankers dilute it on demand as required to make bank or sovereign bondholders whole and to create a general inflation to devalue the total economic debt burden (as if printing paper can possibly improve our general welfare. They are long past caring about that, no?).
So the focus must remain on that which cannot be printed, or so easily distorted. Basic commodities, their production, processing, refining, storage, transport and distribution, is the farthest one can get away from the complex financing operations of a modern economy and the corporations and other investible entities that comprise it. So while I have nothing against other sectors—by all means there are well-run companies out there in every conceivable line of non-financial business—I am acutely aware that they are simply unusually difficult to value at present.
As such, were I to invest in a broad array of basic-value companies, I would prefer a long-term, private equity approach. Don’t even pretend that you can cash out of such investments on a shorter-term horizon. Acquire your value portfolio, place it in the drawer, close it, lock it up. Someday, yes, many of these companies are going to be worth a pretty penny, notwithstanding the interim volatility associated with what could be a disorderly de-leveraging of the economy. But that penny will have morphed, in the long meanwhile, into the coin of a hard currency. For there is just no way that soft currencies can survive indefinitely. Eventually, a tipping point is reached, confidence is lost and the central banker, staring no doubt into the abyss of crisis, must make the fateful decision: Do I raise interest rates to a level that defends the currency but forces a sharp, deflationary restructuring of the economy, or do I go all-in, hyperinflate, and hope that history will somehow treat me kinder than it has treated my hyper-printing predecessors?

He went like one that hath been stunned,
And is of sense forlorn:
A sadder and a wiser man,
He rose the morrow morn.

Let us hope that our central bankers make the right choice.
Resources

[1] To this day, Harding and Coolidge are often derided as extreme in their laissez-faire views on the economy. To be sure, they resisted the Progressive movement, with which Presidents Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson were associated. Progressives believed that the role of the federal government should extend well beyond the explicit, enumerated powers of the US Constitution, the ostensible reason being to use the power of government to improve society at home and, when necessary, to intervene militarily abroad. Indeed, some historians consider T. Roosevelt and Wilson to be most responsible among US presidents in inaugurating the ‘globalist’ or ‘world-policeman’ foreign policy which has more or less been the norm ever since and, most recently, is behind the current US military involvement in a number of countries and, perhaps in the coming weeks, in Iran.

http://www.discoveryinvesting.com/up...ry_21_2012.pdf

Snippet:

Deleveraging is like being forced to swallow that horrible medicine you remember when you were a kid. Deep down you know you need the medicine to feel better but it is traumatic to swallow it.
In our over-leveraged world today there is another very powerful factor.
All politicians try to avoid deleveraging because it imposes spending and money creation restrictions, two primary modalities for obtaining and retaining electoral power. It also imposes restrictions on Keynesian proscriptions for stable employment and low inflation; and de leveraging is terribly unpopular – like the medicine Dr. Mom used to make you take.
Here is however one exception in the world today to this trend of pushing the leverage and deficit "balls" down the road.
The sole exception is the case of the forced deleveraging of Greece. Greece is being punished for her fiscal imprudence. Yet there must have been many European lenders who believed in Greece before her interest rates skyrocketed to 35%. Today Greece is typified by pension guarantees that are too high, start too early, salaries that are too liberal, bloated government employment, wonderful weather and of course the beautiful Aegean. Too bad! Greece is the "bad boy" in Europe’s attempt to build a strong monetary and perhaps fiscal union. They are the counter example.
Greeks are being called out, isolated and punished by the Troika, composed of the European Central Bank, The European Commission and the IMF. This group is the "Dr. Mom" of the EU.
Greek politicians, rudely re-elected for convenience late last year, are now forced on bended knee to cut hundreds of billions of Euros in the guise of "austerity." Greek people do not feel that way at all and are unlikely to comply with forced austerity after the second bailout is received.
Austerity?
What is austerity? It is, as we shall ALL discover in due course, government intrusion into our lives to retake from mom and pop those quality of life elements that we have earned or have been promised. They include a home, a comfortable retirement, excellent medical care, sufficient pension payments, high government salaries, et. al., …. as the OECD world ages. These were some of the promises that kept us all happy.

Excellent article and it illustrates all the features of the transition from the mercantilist capitalism we have had to date to full blown free movement. Many of the remnants of the old regionalist style of incomplete capitalism come to the fore in a world where choice is expanding so some of the things we have today are possibly simply telling us that change is underway.

I am often bemused by those in New Zealand who call for the end to foreign ownership with a look of smug satisfaction and yet who fail to recognise that deregulation and mobility for capital is inevitable...like a child growing up.

But the continued presence of regulatory stewardship is not likely to be with us for long. There is no longer an need for it as it is clearly inefficient as we are seeing in the bond markets. And Greece is a salutory warning of the risks with increasing capital mobility.

I am quite excited at the effects this will have on trading, not the least being better and faster technologies and wider choice.

Good morning my fellow traders, here is todays events:

GMT
08:15 EC ECB Calls for Bids in 7-day US Dollar Tender
09:30 RU Russia to Sell RUB35 Bln OFZ Bond Due 2021
10:00 EC ECB Announces Allotment in 7-Day US Dollar Tender
10:00 GE BDB Private Bank Federation Present Economic Forecasts: Berlin
10:30 GE Germany to Sell EU5 Bln 2-Year Notes (BKO-DE0001137370)
14:30 EC Barroso Speaks at EU Economic and Social Committee
16:00 US U.S. Fed to Purchase USD1.5-2 Bln Notes
16:30 US U.S. to Sell 4-Week Bills
18:00 US U.S. to Sell USD35 Bln 5-Year Notes
EC "EU's Barnier Travels to U.S. for to Meet Bernanke, Geithner"

Good morning all. What did I miss?
Time to read all the posts since Monday. That should keep me busy

You didn't miss anything. Yesterday was a boring day.

Hi Bill, Do you think you also need support of CCI and RSI with your Price Directional Movement Indi ... just a thought ... cheers!

Hi PT ... How are you


Thinking of resuming "EURANALYSIS" from my new office or take some more time to settle down =/

PT is back
Welcome back home

Okay I've read it all. AFxFin, you were correct... a very boring two days with not much hoopla. Just the usual crap with loads of "talk" and no "walk" by the usual suspects (EU Politicians)

Here's my view on the Greek situation at the moment (pasted from a post I made in the Greece 2012 thread)

"As for the ECB sharing its profits, it will not be short of money if it does because the profits are not in money but in toxic assets (Greek Bonds) which will never be cashed in (in my opinion) because Greece will eventually have to go bankrupt. What will most likely happen is the bonds will end up being bought by the EFSF or the ESM so the ECB will not have to take the loss directly.

Regarding market sentiment on the Greek deal, The equity markets have made some fantastic gains lately yet the Euro has stayed behind. This (The Euro staying behind) is probably due to the moderate recovery of the US Dollar as chances of QE3 are reduced. This will continue as long as US econ data remains positive. Anyway, you are correct that the Greek deal has been priced in, however what has been priced in is "hope" of the Greek deal going well and being finalized. We are still a long way from that point. Progress on agreements have been made but agreements are just agreements and recent history has already shown us that things change quickly. I will wait for the actual transactions for my final judgement.

The EU does not want Greece to go bankrupt or to leave the EZ for obvious reasons. Allowing it will send a signal that the EZ project is a failure. Everyone knows it has already failed but a disorderly default by one of the EZ members will be the first nail in the coffin. Regardless, such a disorderly default is not impossible. Time will tell. Stay tuned "

Hi brothers. Hope your trading is going well. A bit hard to take home some profits in this indecisive market. Well, at least we can trade the range.

Let's see what today brings.

Article in one of Swedens newspapers that you now can pay with pesetas in Spain.

Long Euro, Short Drachma