EurAnalysis

I usually form my opinion about where the currency might go by initially watching how it reacts to the news. At 9:45 PM there was the BIG movement from 1.31856 to the High at 1.32949.

Those are facts. By 3:00 AM EST we had moved back to 1.3222 a previous resistance. Then Europe opened and Money Flow and Perceptions form. EUR/USD moved to 1.32853 near 4:15 AM so at that point it is not getting stronger from initial reaction which also covered shorts being closed. Then at 6:30 AM we touched 1.32048 and once North American Retail come on board we are at 1.3219.

What logical reason is there to think it will challenge 1.33000 in the next few hours ?

My reply is I do not care where it goes since my bias is just based on my observations. My observations NOW say EUR/USD is still weak so where do I short it ?

I did a trade at 4:17 AM shorting at 1.32808 as I saw it was not going to challenge 1.3300.

Now I will watch the direction of the markets and the money flow that will move the charts. Have a good trading day.

The US 2 Year US Bonds are Yielding .29% and the 10 Year US Bond is Yielding 2.02% so with Gold moving towards $1,750 US and with Europe down now and Dow up 34 I see some Risk On YET EUR/USD is NOT moving up at the moment.


Good Decision Rod Smile !!!

Hi buddy, i have 1 hour and 4 hour time frame. On my chart i added a 21 ema but thats more decoration (you know my thoughts on indies)lol. I am still playing with directional movement as well and doing quite well. Take care

Samaras upbeat over deal for new Greek bailout



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_1705.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras has labeled the bailout agreement struck by the Eurogroup on Tuesday as “significant” and “positive”.
Samaras, who is on an official visit to Cyprus, said that the deal removes the threat of a Greek default and secures the country’s place within the European.
The ND leader added that the agreement on a new bailout paves the way for general elections. Samaras has called for the vote to take place on April 8.
A GPO poll for Mega TV indicated on Tuesday that Backing for New Democracy stood at 19.4 percent and at 13.1 percent for PASOK. Both parties dropped about two percentage points from a previous GPO poll in December.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_429058


I would be upbeat also if someone just lend me 130 More Billion Dollars and I knew I probably could not pay it back however at least I get to spend One Million of it because my Salary is at least paid.

by Rachael Granby and the Market Currents team
Greece lands new bailout. The big news today is the approval of Greece's bailout, a development welcomed by markets with relief and at the same time completely unsurprising. Financing will total €130B and involve a 53.5% loss for private debt holders on the nominal value of their bonds. The goal of the €130B program is to shrink Greece's debt to 121% of GDP by 2020, from about 160% now. National central banks won't be a part of the debt swap. Private debt holders will get "sweeteners" including 30-year bonds in exchange for the ones they give up. European markets are down (see below) but the euro soared in response to the deal, buying $1.329. At present, euro -0.3% to $1.3207 (6:45 ET).
URS buys Flint Energy. URS Corp (URS) agreed to buy Canadian oilfield services company Flint Energy Services (FESVF.PK) for C$1.25B ($1.25B). The C$25/share offer is a 68% premium to Flint's Friday close. URS will also assume C$225M in Flint debt.
Fed rules made in secret. The Fed has taken on a significantly larger regulatory role than ever before, but is writing new financial rules almost entirely behind closed doors. Just two public meetings have been held since July 2010, and on 45 of the 47 regulatory measures during that period, Fed governors have emailed in their votes to the Fed's secretary, with those votes not publicly disclosed until last week.
EU banks safeguard cash. Top European banks are stockpiling a growing amount of cash at central banks around the world. The eight major European banks that disclosed earnings in recent weeks reported a total of $816B held at central banks, up roughly 50% Y/Y. The problem is that central banks' paltry yields are squeezing banks' profits and the sidelined money is exacerbating a European lending drought.
Oil climbs as Iran snubs U.K., France. Oil has been on a tear the last couple of days, in part because of Iran-related concerns. Over the weekend, Iran said it had stopped selling crude to British and French companies, in retaliation for the EU's import ban. Oil markets, the EU included, can cope with the loss of Iranian oil exports, responded the IEA's Didier Houssin, but oil's elevated price "could represent a risk to the global economic recovery." In triple-digits, the burden of oil prices on the global economy is nearing 2008 levels. Crude +1.3% to $104.56 (6:45 ET).
Pfizer aims for China expansion. Pfizer (PFE) is exploring partnerships with more Chinese drug companies as it tries to expand its marketshare in generic drugs, and reported progress over the weekend in a planned JV with China's Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical. Big Pharma is increasingly turning to China to cut costs and to compensate for sales lost in Western markets as top-selling drugs go off patent.
Reliance Comm. eyes mobile phone contract. Reliance Communications is reportedly in talks with four companies about a possible $3B contract to manage its mobile phone networks, with a finalized contract expected in the next six weeks. The four companies are said to be Ericsson (ERIC), Alcatel-Lucent (ALU), ZTE Corp. (ZTCOF.PK) and Huawei Technologies.
China favors automaker incumbents. China's clampdown on automobile overcapacity is good news for companies like GM (GM) which already have entrenched positions in the world's biggest car market. Newcomers won't be eligible for incentives on factories, and China appears less likely to sign off on new applications from foreign automakers.
OECD growth slows. Economic growth in developed countries slowed to a measly 0.1% in Q4, according to provisional OECD estimates, down from +0.6% in Q3. The overall figure "masks diverging patterns," with accelerated growth in the U.S. and deterioration in Japan. The eurozone, unsurprisingly, also posted a decline.
Wal-Mart bets on China. Wal-Mart (WMT) said yesterday that it had lifted its stake in Chinese e-commerce firm Yihaodian to around 51% as the company angles for a larger presence in China's fast-growing consumer market. Financial details weren't disclosed.
Samsung splits from LCDs. Samsung (SSNLF.PK) announced plans to spin off its unprofitable LCD business to focus on more profitable areas such as smartphones, non-memory chips, and next-generation panels. The new company, provisionally called Samsung Display Co, will be set up April 1 with paid-in capital of 750B won ($668M).
Japan posts record trade deficit. Japan posted a record trade deficit in January of ¥1.48T ($19B) as a strong yen and weak global demand hurt manufacturers and slowed the country's recovery. The numbers may be somewhat skewed, as the Lunar New Year holiday fell in January this year instead of February, decreasing business days in Asian markets.
Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan -0.2% to 9463. Hong Kong +0.3% to 21479. China +0.8% to 2381. India +0.8% to 18429.
In Europe, at midday, London -0.4%. Paris -0.9%. Frankfurt -0.7%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.2%. S&P +0.1%. Nasdaq flat. Crude +1.3% to $104.56. Gold +0.8% to $1739.40.
Tuesday's economic calendar:
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Monetary Anarchy

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/publ...archy-Sign.jpg



An analyst at Nomura Securities, Bob Janjuah, has released a scathing note of the state of economic affairs to his clients: Monetary Anarchy. Since much of it is things I have touched on in the past, I have only reproduced a portion of the entire note.

2 – I am staggered at how easily the concepts of Democracy and the Rule of Law – two of the pillars of the modern world – have been brushed aside in the interests of political expediency. This is not just a eurozone phenomenon but of course the removal of elected governments and the instalment of "insider" technocrats who simply serve the interests of the elite has become a specialisation in Europe. Many will think this kind of development is not a big deal and is instead may be what is needed. Personally I am absolutely certain that the kind of totalitarianism being pushed on us by our leaders will – if allowed to persist and fester – end with consequences which are way beyond anything the printing presses of our central banks could ever hope to contain. Communism failed badly. Why then are we arguably trying to resurrect a version of it, particularly in Europe? Are the banks so powerful that we are all beholden to them and the biggest nonsense of all – that defaults should never happen (unless said defaults are trivial or largely meaningless)?
3 – More broadly, with Mr Draghi now in situ, it is clear that I misread and misunderstood two things.

First, I am simply stunned that our policymakers seem so one-dimensional, so short-termist, and so utterly bereft of courage or ideas. It now seems obvious that in response to the financial crisis that has been with us for five years and counting, we are being "told" to double up on these same policy decisions. The crisis was caused by central bankers mispricing the cost of capital, which forced a misallocation of capital, driven by debt/leverage, which was ultimately exposed as a hideous asset bubble which then collapsed, destroying the lives and livelihoods of tens of millions of relatively innocent people. Well now, if you listen to the latest from Bernanke and Draghi, it seems that the only solution they can offer up is to yet again misprice the cost of capital, in the hope that, yet again, through increased leverage/debt, we are yet again "greedy" enough to misallocate capital, which in turn will lead to yet another round of asset bubbles. Such asset bubbles are meant to delude us into believing that we are now "richer".

When – as they do by definition – these bubbles burst, those who have been suckered in will realise that their "wealth" is instead an illusion, which in turn will be replaced by default risk.Secondly, I have clearly underestimated the ‘market’s’ willingness, nay desperation, to go along with this ultimately ruinous policy path. Personally, I think this is extremely worrying – the number of clients who tell me that they know they are being forced into playing a game that will end in disaster, but who feel they have to play along and who hope they will get out before it turns, is a depressingly familiar old tale. Some such folks hang onto the idea that Draghi/LTRO changed the asymmetry of risk from deeply negative to positive. Yet even these folks know that printing more money/more liquidity/more debt/more leverage is not a viable solution to our ills, and in fact will mean true supply side reform and the search for true competiveness and sustainable growth will be further cast aside, as the focus will be on the "easy gains" to be made in markets.

4 - Assuming that we are in yet another liquidity fuelled rally courtesy of Bernanke and Draghi, then there are some key things to remember. First, such rallies can last days, weeks, months, perhaps we could even extend into 2013. And – to give a proxy guide – the S&P could end up in the high 1500s again if this current binge lasts into 2013. The problem with such liquidity fuelled set-ups is that they can last longer and get bigger than any reasonable logic would dictate. The issue here is not what central bankers say – it now seems clear that Bernanke and Draghi will say whatever it takes to keep the market supplied with ample liquidity – but what they can do. In this respect one either believes that central bankers can do whatever they like whenever they like, or one believes there are limits. I think there are limits to what Bernanke and Draghi can do, and once we hit those limits these bubbles will burst, with increasingly greater consequences the longer we are forced to wait. Do I know when we may hit these limits? I hope that it is sooner rather than later, but I have no real conviction.
Secondly, when looking for where the bubbles may be, realise this: in this current cycle, where central bank balance sheets are at the core, the bubble is everywhere – in stocks, in bonds, in growth expectation, in credit spreads, in currencies, in commodity prices, in most real asset prices – you name it! This is why I think that this current bubble, if it is allowed to fester and develop into 2013, will have such widespread consequences when it bursts that it will make 2008 feel, relatively speaking, like a bull market.

Third, when this bubble bursts, I don’t think there is an easy way out. Who will be the bail-out provider? We already have extraordinarily weak and fragile government balance sheets, ditto banking balance sheets and consumer balance sheets. The big cap corporate balance sheet is sound, but it already worries about how bad the real economy hit will be when the next bubble bursts. As such, the corporate sector – which has a huge degree of "control" over the political classes – will keeps its powder dry until asset prices fall to clearing levels. When this happens they will be the biggest buyer of truly cheap assets in town, but not before then. The really dangerous thing about this next bubble is that it will likely ruin current central bank credibility, as their balance sheet expansion, accumulating ever more "toxic" assets, is at the centre of the current cycle. As a result, the central bank decision-making function is now (increasingly) deeply compromised, if not utterly at odds with its own raison d'être. This of course means that if/when the current cycle implodes, central banks which have seen explosive balance sheet growth will add to the problems, rather than being able to act as credible lenders of last resort. A resulting consequence is that we will, at that point, usher in a new era of central banking and policy settings, where the key will be to regain a semblance of credibility and independence. This will be good news. But we will likely have to go through the "bust" first.

5 – I am not well equipped to navigate bubbles where tactical views and secular views are all thrown into the melting pot together, where there is no visibility, where – as one client put it to me recently – we have Monetary Anarchy running riot, where the elastic band between the ‘real’ economy and the current liquidity-fuelled markets is stretched further and further beyond credulity, and where history tells us that policymakers will happily stand by whilst bubbles are being pumped up, and hope that they are onto their next job before it all comes tumbling down. It seems that the 07/08/09 part of this crisis has resulted in zero lessons learned. In fact it is much worse than that as we are instead being asked to double up on a strategy which I fear will end in failure. As such, clearly my outlook in my last note needs to be re-assessed in terms of the latest developments. Whilst equity market levels are still within the tolerance limits set out in this previous note, my timing is clearly being "stretched". Unfortunately for me, and as warned in the prior note, if my outlook set out therein is proven to be wrong, it is because I am overly cautious. I say "unfortunately" because the longer we have to wait for the "final" resolution to the global financial crisis, the bigger and more devastating the final leg lower will be. I have an extremely high level of conviction on this point.
6 – So, in terms of markets, be warned. My personal recommendation is to sit in Gold and non-financial high quality corporate credit and blue-chip big cap non-financial global equities. Bond and Currency markets are now so rigged by policy makers that I have no meaningful insights to offer, other than my bubble fears. Real assets are relatively attractive. But I am going to wait for this current central bank bubble to burst before going all in. I may be waiting 5 days, 5 weeks, 5 months, perhaps 5 quarters. It all depends on when and how our central bank leaders are exposed as lacking credibility and/or lacking the mandates to keep pumping liquidity into the system. The end of the bubble will be sign posted by either monetary anarchy creating major real economy inflation or by a deflationary credit collapse (if they run out of pumping "mandates").





The end game is incredibly binary in my view, but in between it is pretty much a random walk. Either way, "bonds are toast" in any secular timeframe (due either to huge inflationary pressures, or due to a deflationary credit collapse), which in turn means that asset bubbles in risky assets will get crushed on a secular basis.
My colleague Kevin Gaynor has a more nuanced view and he feels that we may well avoid the bubble outcome, as political hurdles, political changes, growth and earnings data will all very quickly undermine central bankers and their bubble vision. For all our (long term) sakes, I hope I am wrong when it comes to fearing another round of liquidity-fuelled bubbles, and that he is right that "good sense? will prevail soon.

As a "credit" guy at heart I see more likelihood in a deflationary credit (i.e., a "real") collapse rather than a real economy inflationary (nominal) collapse. Either way however, what is clear is that if Bernanke and Draghi are allowed to continue on their current policy path for much longer, then whatever the final outcome will be, it will likely leave a deep scar on us for decades. Which on a ten-year timeframe may not be such a bad thing as it should kill off monetarism and usher in a new era of monetary and fiscal prudence? In the near term, LTRO2 at month-end is the next clear focus for markets, more so than Greece. If LTRO2 is USD1trn or more, the market will take that as a signal to load on more leverage, more risk and more ‘carry’. If LTRO2 is in the order of USD250bn to USD500bn, Risk Off will be the order of the day as markets will start to fear that central bankers are having to reign back-in their current policies, and that as a result we face another period where central bankers and policymakers fall back behind the curve. LTRO1 clearly took policymakers from behind to ahead of the curve, but this is an extremely fluid situation, where doing nothing is, in reality, the same as going backwards. As the skew of expectations is to a large LTRO2, a LTRO2 take-up in between these ranges is likely to be viewed with neutrality/mild disappointment.


Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.



[email protected]
Trading Advantage

I have a buy signal on EUR/USD with the break of 1.3250 if this is achieved then for sure 1.3280-1.33 will be next target but have feeling that this level will be penetrated today or tomorrow with 1.34/40 being the target. This is my short term view as always im still bearish this pair long term providing we dont break 1.36

its good to see positive trading talk. this hour looks like it might end with a 4 hour inside bar and this is a good sign lol. or i should say its the traders being indecisive so maybe check it out on the 15 min. i was after shorting erlier but it wasnt triggered. I was triggered on the g/u and once i realised it hit the 1st support i got out for 10ish pips then it retraced a bit so i got in again , anyway i hope your trades comes in i,ll sit and wait

The trend is your friend and this is true but always remember what time frame you are using to confirm what trend you are in

too true re trend is friend, we been on up trend since 16th.My proper trading is done regardless of trend but it is fun trading inside bars and envelope/engulfing bars.

Dow jones is edging higher towards highs of 2008, im sure greed will get them very close and even break through the 13000 mark... close above this will see market rally and take the Euro with it, failure to do so could be the reversal of this short term uptrend we are all waiting for... Phew!!!

For now though looks as if the bulls are holding the reigns.

yes indeed. we just had a nice pin bar on th 4 hour time frame. I am watching it but i doubt i will do any trading as i have had a good 2 days plus sunday and i think that the odds are against me lol

LONG x LTRO on 29/2/1012 BCE

Hiya Billy

Don't mean to be presumptuous and if I am, ignore this post, but what is this directional movement?

Ta

hi bud, i'll send you a message and try to explain

knoholygrail

If you read between Janjuah's lines, you will note that he is suggesting more of the same medicine.

Firstly, communism is an utterly different creature from capitalism. In the former, all wealth and value is socialised and held in other forms, not monetised. It is global as well. The USSR was not communist. It was state capitalist and had little in common with this rule. Capitalism and variants of it from fascism to social democracy also break with this fundamental rule. Marx essentially provided a systemic history of mankind and was of the view that capitalism, which he saw as a radical and progressive development on its precursors, would in time undergo change. He was anti communism in a country and saw absolutely free markets as the end result of globalisation. Understanding these tendencies can give one a significant advantage in understanding where we are headed as an objective fact.

There are immutable laws in systems which is why they differ. For example, feudal Islam has much more in common with pre-Reformation Christianity, than it does with Reformed Christianity and its child, capitalism. Hence the inefficieny of Sharia banking in creating surplus out of underlying surplus. That is what the Arab Spring is all about.

Which brings me back to my first point. The eventual falling away of all rules circumscribing how capital moves. Ron Paul wants the same liberalisation. So did Thatcher and Raegan with their trickle down economics and laizzes faire economics. However, as we move to a freer market, we also move towards its inherent contradictions, the rise of all the factors that grant the players advantage in that free market. For example, the liberalisation of the housing sector was BOUND to give rise to it's securitisation and that resulting banking crisis. Regulating that market is anathema in the discourse. However, out of each of those crises, rises the seeds for the next bubble.

Final word on this matter. There is nothing anyone can do about these tendencies. They flow naturally with the material limits of the system we live within. The discourse will shift towards great minimilisation of European government as that is a GIVEN worldwide and Mr Janjuah will get what he wants. We as traders should of course understand these factors and trade dispassionately.

Cheers mate.

hi traider, i used this chart earlier for good gains.red line crosses green going up means bears are in charge and when green line crosses red the bulls are in charge ,,,so on chart No 2 its a classic red crosses green on the up (look at candles)..No 3 green crosses red on the up the bulls are in charge. so far easy... No1 was a loss but it was never a trade, you would of had to of seen the previous candles to know why. No4 is a trend line if its a high number like 30 you know the trend is strong if its say 5 its weak and anything can happen.SOOOO red is what bears are doing and green is what bulls are doing. It is easy to learn but you need experiance to see it working. Take care

that black line i just mentioned,,, well its called an ADX line and if you look at it right now on 4 hour time frame you'll see it is changing direction this means the trend is changing from up to down and as soon s that red line goes over green hey presto i'm in. i just hope it does now lol

i just realised, i said i used this chart earlier which i did but i was trading inside bars and engulfing bars not DM, i was also on g/u too it ran almost identical

Thanks Billy. Copied and pasted that post to have a good read of it.