EurAnalysis

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...=s&t=c&a=2&w=5

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb12/...Zeus02-12.html

Snippet:



The First Dominoes: Greece, Reality, and Cascading Default
(Guest Essay) (February 13, 2012)


I asked frequent contributor Zeus Yiamouyiannis to comment on the coming Greek default. Here is his insightful response.
Greece is the epicenter of a drama that threatens to unwind with all the intrigue and subterfuge of ancient Greek myths and tragedies. As with the legend of Icarus, big, and now bigger, transnational banks provoked the gods with their wax-and-feather financial fabrications to create the appearance of soaring wealth. Now that they have flown too close to the sun and their wings have melted, these banks are being brought to earth by the obligations and consequences imposed by their fabrications.

Rather than take responsibility, these banks seek to appease the gods by sacrificing taxpayers. In fact, if one looks closely, these banks aspire to be gods themselves. They clothe themselves in their indispensability and shield themselves from accountability with tales about how many innocent citizens will be hurt if they don’t get their next bailout. It is as if they say, “We are above the law… We are the law.” Mathematics, legal enforcement, restraint, humility all must fall under the sword of their hubris.

In the end, just as with a Greek tragedy or a Yeats poem, this center cannot hold and things fall apart. When one abuses the laws and principles of mathematics and capitalism, claiming to be a faithful servant, consequence and accountability eventually catch up. The breaking point inexorably nears. Citizens are beginning to think, voice, and act: “We can do without the false idols that call themselves banks. In fact, we need them to be dissolved for us to survive and thrive.”

Reality is the revenge of the gods.
Not just about fairness: Everything unwinds This is not just about fairness anymore; it is about the exposure of central, global illusions that affect everyone, not just banks. For the last three plus decades, debt-fueled “growth” has instilled a life sense that everyone gets rich, values always go up, and no one has to pay. If those illusions evaporate than those citizens complicit in this failed fantasy may actually join forces with the realists (those who knew it was a scam all along) to produce unified citizen revolt. Hell hath no fury like the people spurned and lied to, even if many had some responsibility in welcoming and fanning those lies. The implicit deal was this: We will collude so everyone gets rich going forward. We will collude so no one has to pay if there is any unwinding. (But, hey, it’s a new era, and that’s not going to happen!) Open default breaks the illusion, and austerity breaks up the collusion. This is why default has to be hidden, deferred, restructured. It is not just about chaos around party/counterparty risk (in particular, cascading claims that are not backed by anything). It is not even just about finance. It’s about all the other things that will unwind, culturally, politically, and psychologically, if Greece defaults and sets into motion the necessity of someone actually paying up. In short, recognition of reality has disastrous consequences for the status quo and its control myths.

hi guys. hows the trading going

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Forexpros - The euro dipped against the dollar on Tuesday as investors shorted the currency for profits to await official word that European leaders have inked an agreement to bail out Greece with a EUR130 billion rescue package.

European leaders were hammering out the details behind the rescue facility by the time that Asian markets were open, which gave investors time wait for some kind of official announcement before making more substantial moves on the euro.

In early Asian trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD hit 1.3206, down 0.27%, gaining from a session low of 1.3200 and off from a high of 1.3254.

The pair was likely to test support at 1.3115, Friday's low, and resistance at 1.3277, Monday's high.

European leaders spent late Monday working on the details needed to officially hand over Athens the aid, including contributions from central banks as well as debt exchanges involving private investors in Greek bonds.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated he was confident the deal would close although he pointed out there was much work to do.

Meanwhile, global appetite for risk carried over into Tuesday in wake of China's decision to cut the reserve requirements it applies to the country's financial institutions by 50 basis points, a sign that Beijing favors more growth-oriented policies.

The move bolstered the euro as well prior to early Asian selling.

The euro, meanwhile, was down against the pound and down against the yen, with EUR/GBP losing 0.08% to 0.8347 and EUR/JPY down 0.21% at 105.22.

Greece will serve as the market's top weather vane on Tuesday as hints of fresh setbacks could spark a rush to the greenback.

In Europe, Switzerland is to produce government data on trade balance while the U.K. is to release official data on public sector net borrowing.

Eurozone consumer confidence figures are due out as well.

1.3191 now and Low at 1.3188 Support at 1.3150

No News Is Bad News...

Up And AWay We Go !!!

Jope nobody got caught on the wrong side of that almost 80 pip pop in a minute.

it's good to be on the right side of the trade. Went long at 1.3190 - quick and lucky 50 pips.

1.3300 and Then 1.3309 100 Day Moving Average and then 1.3322

Watch Behaviour between 2:00 AM and 3:00 AM and Then Europe Open....

Be Patient if you are going short...

Need to Watch between 2:00 AM and 3:00 AM and Where Europe markets take it and Money Flow and Gold and Dow Futures...


Good Night !!!

Good Morning Europe!

Ok, so now everything is good in EZ
Greece is ok? Only an estimated 120% debt at 2020 if everything goes as planned. I think the can has been kicked a little bit further down the road. When the banks of Europe can handle a default we will have one.

Will be interesting to see what the market focuses on from now on. Flaws in the deal? Portugal, Spain, Italy or another country in europe.

Will we see an increased GDP all over europe? Probably not.

As for Fibre fundamentally we have better figures in US than we have in Europe. Technically I think we might hit that 50% retrace from 1,425 to 1,2622 up at 1.3436 and then down.

Will be an interesting week.

Trade well.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_429017

What A Relief. All Is Well.

Snippet:

Papademos hails 'historic' deal for new loans, debt reduction



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_3001.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Prime Minister Lucas Papademos hailed as “historic” an agreement struck after 13 hours of talks in Brussels that will lead to Greece receiving a further 130 billion euros of loans and its bondholders accepting a 53.5 percent haircut.
Speaking on Tuesday morning after the marathon negotiations over the details of the new deal, Papademos expressed hope that the new bailout would restore some stability.

“We now have the ability to progress with stability, to limit uncertainty and to increase trust in the Greek economy in order to create better conditions,” he said.

“The new program has elements that will help improve competitiveness and create condition to support steady growth.”

Under the agreement struck in Brussels, Greece will receive 130 billion euros in loans, bondholders will accept a haircut of 53.5 percent rather than 50 and the European Central Bank will pass on any profits from the Greek bonds it holds to national eurozone central banks.

In return for receiving the money from the ECB, eurozone members agreed to lower the interest rate on Greek loans and to pass on any profit from these bonds to Greece.
This would reduce Greek debt by an estimated 3.2 billion euros, bringing Greek debt down to a projected 120.5 percent of GDP by 2020, close to the eurozone’s target of 120 percent, which it deemed to be sustainable.
In return for receiving the new loans, Greece will accept closer monitoring from its lenders. However, the Eurogroup agreement suggests that the oversight will take place through the European Union Task Force for Greece, which is an agency of the European Commission.

“The Eurogroup also welcomes the stronger on site-monitoring capacity by the Commission to work in close and continuous cooperation with the Greek government in order to assist the Troika in assessing the conformity of measures that will be taken by the Greek government, thereby ensuring the timely and full implementation of the program,” the text of the agreement said.

Also, Athens will have to create an escrow account into which money to service its debt will be paid.

“The Eurogroup also welcomes Greece's intention to put in place a mechanism that allows better tracing and monitoring of the official borrowing and internally-generated funds destined to service Greece's debt by, under monitoring of the troika, paying an amount corresponding to the coming quarter's debt service directly to a segregated account of Greece's paying agent,” the agreement said.

Greece will also have to introduce a legal provision, later to be made part of the Constitution, that will give priority to debt servicing rather than domestic expenditure.
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday February 21, 2012 (08:43)

The 'deal' was the easy part. Greece now has to implement austerity measures imposed on them. This will be the hard pill to swallow for the people and I'm sure we've not seen the end of civil unrest yet.

Dollar index levels to watch today are 78.900 and 79.200. We've been range bound between those two number for some time now.

Crude is also range bound between 105.00 and 105.64.

Gold has posted a Doji candle in the last hour and is falling right now. Now at 1739.69 with support at 1736.00

We need to move out of these ranges if we're going to see any kind of movement today.

Cheers!

DJ MARKET TALK: Morgan Stanley Looks To Sell USD/JPY

Posted on 21 February 2012 4:12 | Dow Jones Newswires

0912 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley looks to sell USD/JPY on moves towards 80.40, the 50% retracement level of last year's April-to-October downtrend. MS is skeptical that the latest BOJ action is enough "to meaningfully turn the trend in JPY." The bank notes domestic investors have little incentive to lift hedged positions as local yields remain at rock-bottom levels while foreign assets, especially euro-zone ones, are likely to be repatriated while uncertainty lingers. USD/JPY at 79.7620

Market has moved +150 today so far hope you guys are having fun.

Shorted twice on this swing....4:53am entry - exit 4:55am = +5, entry 5:00am - exit 5:06 am = +5....Now since I have all day to make one trade ill wait until the bears take a rest and jump in.

Been short since 1.3280 when it posted a triple top at 1.3290 (DM5 line) and failed to move up. Target is Pivot line at 1.3220

This will put the US Dollar index at 79.200 which is the top of it's range bound area.

Correction: That's DM5 line not DM3 line as originally posted.

Good analysis...my sentiment has been short since 3290 as well...

My guess is, the pair would reach 3131 which is 50% of the fib (do refer the chart)