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Verb's Macro Economic Sentiment Journal

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jul 18, 2012 2:29am Feb 20, 2012 2:23am | Edited Jul 18, 2012 2:29am
Post #1:
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Haven't been on in awhile but I'm going to be placing my sentiment analysis here as time and inclination allow.

Occasionally I will be adding S&D charts but this is really more to record my views on the macro economics and how they will affect exchange rates in the short-term.

Also if I don't post regularly do not be alarmed. I trade full-time and party the rest so this is not high on the priority scale.

Cheers!
-Verb

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Note #1 - 03-05-2012
I am very happy to see the participation on long-term views on the macro economic landscape. I will be continuing to add my short-term views on the macro economic landscape where I will be focusing on day-to-day movements with an eye on long-term bias. Keep posting and reading, if you have any suggestions for improvements let me know unless it's to ask me to post more haha. Cheers!
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Agenda
02-20-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #01 Analysis & Outcome

02-21-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #02 Analysis & Outcome

02-22-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #03 Analysis & Outcome

02-23-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #04 Analysis & Outcome

02-24-2012
No analysis

02-27-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #05 Analysis & Outcome

02-28-2012
No Analysis
*NOTE: I may not be giving an analysis today. I'm not seeing things clearly today and feeling a little under the weather however my long-term bias is still bearish and selling rallies is in order.

02-29-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #06 Analysis & Outcome

03-05-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #07 Analysis & Outcome

03-07-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #08 Analysis & Outcome

03-08-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #09 Analysis & Outcome

03-09-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #10 Analysis & Outcome

03-12-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #11 Analysis & Outcome

03-13-2012
No analysis today, working on some other items that need care and feeding.

03-14-2012
No analysis, was still working on another project.

03-15-2012
No analysis, still working on another project.

03-19-2012
EURUSD London to NY Session - #12 Analysis & Outcome

03-21-2012
I have decided to close this thread as I'm working on the next version of Macro Economic Sentiment which applies a strength rating to a currency.

This next version is a study of current economics and their affect on short-term currency movements.

I will share my ratings later but here's a little taste of what it will look like:
http://i1058.photobucket.com/albums/...CAD-Week02.jpg

07-12-2012
I have re-opened thread. I will be sharing my views on the macro situation plus trader sentiment.

I've gone through a lot to develop a market sentiment index and I will basically give a call before every European session on a random pair.

Let's see how this goes.

Be Brave.

07-12-2012
USDCAD US Session - #13 Analysis & Outcome

07-13-2012
GBPUSD Europe Session - #14 Analysis & Outcome

07-14-2012
EURUSD Lookback Analysis - Did we get it right? Yes.

07-16-2012
EURUSD Europe Session - #15 Analysis & Outcome

07-18-2012
GBPUSD Europe Session - #16 Analysis & Outcome
  • #2
  • Edited 11:59pm Feb 20, 2012 2:25am | Edited 11:59pm
Post #2
---------------------------
02-20-2012:

 

  1. EURUSD London to NY Session - #01 Analysis & Outcome

02-21-2012:

 

  1. EURUSD London to NY Session - #02 Analysis

  • #3
  • Feb 20, 2012 2:26am Feb 20, 2012 2:26am
Here's my take for today's Euro movement:

Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): all gapped up on bullish momentum (this is bearish short-term for me). Markets priced in Greek debt deal over the weekend.
Commodities: Gold gapped up on bullish momentum
News: Greek debt deal announcement after NY session 07:30AM NY time

What is likely to happen?
London Equities Open: should see bullish momentum initially as currency is exchanged from USD to EUR to acquire stocks and then it should go bearish finding support and consolidating before Greek debt deal announcement. If the deal gets signed then we should easily DR3 (daily pivot resistance 3) around 1.3300, if it doesn't we should see continued bearishness.

What could you do?
Take a long position at support around 07:15AM NY time with a stop 20.0 pips below the next support level.

Cheers!
  • #4
  • Edited 1:43pm Feb 20, 2012 8:30am | Edited 1:43pm
will the price close today gap?
  • #5
  • Feb 20, 2012 9:55am Feb 20, 2012 9:55am
Subscribed

Great analysis so far.

I look forward to following this thread and learning from your fundamental analysis. With so many "technicians" on here journaling it's good to have someone focusing on Economic Sentiment and the fundamental side of things.

Regards

Jeremy
"More important than the quest for certainty is the quest for clarity"
  • #6
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:03pm Feb 20, 2012 10:03pm
Quoting ccreative
will the price close today gap?
Not a fortune teller, it could or it could not. The biggest mistake I could make is to tell you that it will. Instead, you should trade the current economic view in a technical manner.
  • #7
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:03pm Feb 20, 2012 10:03pm
Quoting JeremyMoore
Subscribed

Great analysis so far.

I look forward to following this thread and learning from your fundamental analysis. With so many "technicians" on here journaling it's good to have someone focusing on Economic Sentiment and the fundamental side of things.

Regards

Jeremy
Thanks for visiting Jeremy!
  • #8
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:12pm Feb 20, 2012 10:12pm
Ok.. Greek's deals accomplished. So whats next?
  • #9
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:14pm Feb 20, 2012 10:14pm
Outcome:
As expected, futures were up in anticipation of a eurozone deal, which led to bullish currency conversion. The volume exchanged was large enough to cause a bullish rally fueled by the anticipation of a Greek deal. Consolidation into a support level which was the previous day's high (classic S&R trading)...however the eurozone finance ministers missed the debt deal announcement and caused a bearish movement to a previous demand zone. I took 2 long positions as the london equities open started to exchange currency still targeting 1.3300.

http://i41.tinypic.com/ehabeg.jpg

Quoting Verb
Here's my take for today's Euro movement:

Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): all gapped up on bullish momentum (this is bearish short-term for me). Markets priced in Greek debt deal over the weekend.
Commodities: Gold gapped up on bullish momentum
News: Greek debt deal announcement after NY session 07:30AM NY time

What is likely to happen?
London Equities Open: should see bullish momentum initially as currency is exchanged from USD to EUR to acquire stocks and then it should go bearish finding support and...
  • #10
  • Feb 20, 2012 10:29pm Feb 20, 2012 10:29pm
Quoting ccreative
Ok.. Greek's deals accomplished. So whats next?
Need to wait for another 2.5 hours to see how stock futures open then I'll put together something.
  • #11
  • Feb 20, 2012 11:58pm Feb 20, 2012 11:58pm
Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): FTSE creeping up...no trading in the US yesterday means that futures wont tell me anything ahead of time today.

Commodities: Gold consolidating at it's highs.

News: Greek debt deal is done. RBA kept rates the same and their outlook on Europe was stable however the deal made for Greece is really a debt swap, austerity and segregated account strategy backed by funding. I am still bearish on Euro for the mid-to-long term as it's unlikely that Greece's GDP will grow fast enough to increase risk appetite and more importantly they don't get all of the money unless they actually implement the austerity measures (which they have not shown ANY track record of actually executing in the past). With all of that said IMO if Greece shows GDP growth this year, that could be enough to cause a major sentiment change to bullish (provided the rest of the EU continues to show good news and no shocks).

What is likely to happen?
London Equities Open: EU has already priced in risk appetite with a rally based on the RBA minutes (NOT the Greek deal) and their subsequent decision to keep rates the same. We should see consolidation until London understands exactly what the deal has accomplished. Even with that I believe there should be a continued short-term risk rally based on currency exchanges at the equities open, which wont last for long, as the market digests this deal and realizes that this is unsustainable relief for Greece not GDP growth.

NY Open: If Wall Street continues a risk rally then I would not buy dips and stay out of the market until lunch time where shorting opportunities could be available IF price reaches resistance where daily ranges, pivot resistance and major numbers intersect.

What could we do?
Add a long position at support (demand level) around 08:30-09:30AM UK time, target R2 at 1.3300ish with a stop 20.0 pips below the next support level. Look for a reversal around 11AM'ish NY time for an opportunity to fade R4 (which happens to be a major # also 1.34). I'm looking for shorting opportunities at 1.33, 1.34 and 1.35 to continue a bearish mid-term valuation.

Cheers~!
  • #12
  • Feb 21, 2012 6:28am Feb 21, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Verb
Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): FTSE creeping up...no trading in the US yesterday means that futures wont tell me anything ahead of time today.

Commodities: Gold consolidating at it's highs.

News: Greek debt deal is done. RBA kept rates the same and their outlook on Europe was stable however the deal made for Greece is really a debt swap, austerity and segregated account strategy backed by funding. I am still bearish on Euro for the mid-to-long term as it's unlikely that Greece's GDP will grow fast...
Nice

It seems that London pushed price to supply levels just short of 1.33 and then dropped it hard. Indices down, oil down, gold down, USD up, JPY up and that tells me it was risk off after London's fake!

Although the Greek debt deal has been agreed upon there are still many questions such as the increased haircut for private bondholders as well as votes both by the Greek parliament (which will go through) but more importantly by Dutch, Finnish and German parliaments who are more reluctant to agree to the new deal.

In reality the new deal is extending Greece's pain and they will still have debts of 120% of GDP in 8 years time with further increased austerity measures.

The question remains: is Greece's future secure, or has this deal just bought time for the eurozone to build greater protection around its banks and around potentially vulnerable countries like Spain and Italy?

I think we all know that the answer is not securing Greece's future. The fact remains that these additional funds that are coming in are not staying in Greece, are not being invested in Greece and are not here to help the Greeks get out of this crisis.

It's simply to repay the banks, so that they can retain their balance sheets on the profit side!
  • #13
  • Feb 21, 2012 10:41am Feb 21, 2012 10:41am
I'm very pleased to see this thread, Verb!
  • #14
  • Feb 21, 2012 2:08pm Feb 21, 2012 2:08pm
Beautiful work D, thank you ! Keep it up, I have a lot to learn!
Hello.
  • #15
  • Feb 22, 2012 12:57am Feb 22, 2012 12:57am
Dear Verb!

I am vaiting for your forecast today...


Thx!!
Quoting Verb
Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): FTSE creeping up...no trading in the US yesterday means that futures wont tell me anything ahead of time today.

Commodities: Gold consolidating at it's highs.

News: Greek debt deal is done. RBA kept rates the same and their outlook on Europe was stable however the deal made for Greece is really a debt swap, austerity and segregated account strategy backed by funding. I am still bearish on Euro for the mid-to-long term as it's unlikely that Greece's GDP will grow...
  • #16
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:14am Feb 22, 2012 1:14am
Quoting bbakker
Nice

It seems that London pushed price to supply levels just short of 1.33 and then dropped it hard. Indices down, oil down, gold down, USD up, JPY up and that tells me it was risk off after London's fake!

Although the Greek debt deal has been agreed upon there are still many questions such as the increased haircut for private bondholders as well as votes both by the Greek parliament (which will go through) but more importantly by Dutch, Finnish and German parliaments who are more reluctant to agree to the new deal.

In reality the...
I love it, another economist!
  • #17
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:29am Feb 22, 2012 1:29am
02-22-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #03

MARKET ANALYSIS: EURO
Futures Indices (DAX, IBEX35, OMX30, SMI, CAC40, FTSE & USDX): Down across the board and USD index up points to a bearish session.
Commodities (GOLD): Gold climbing +$20 from yesterday on risk aversion.
News: The market has realized that at best this Greek debt deal puts a band aid on for 2 months. After that, continued bearishness at best this is a temporary fix.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN?
London Equities Open (08:30AM UK): it’s weakness Wednesday and I’m expecting a bearish decline at the equities open and possible bearish movement until NY open.
NY Equities Open (08:30AM NY): expecting a small risk rally at the equities open as US indices rallied (normally that translates to the Euro strength) and then again sideways.

WHAT COULD WE DO?
Range trading seems to be the best bet. Taking profit and fading 1.33 if it gets close to there again or buying 1.3135 (S1) seems to be a reasonable strategy.
  • #18
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:34am Feb 22, 2012 1:34am
Thank you Verb!

Quoting Verb
02-22-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #03

MARKET ANALYSIS: EURO
Futures Indices (DAX, IBEX35, OMX30, SMI, CAC40, FTSE & USDX): Down across the board and USD index up points to a bearish session.
Commodities (GOLD): Gold climbing +$20 from yesterday on risk aversion.
News: The market has realized that at best this Greek debt deal puts a band aid on for 2 months. After that, continued bearishness at best this is a temporary fix.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN?
London Equities Open (08:30AM UK): it’s weakness Wednesday and I’m expecting...
  • #19
  • Feb 22, 2012 1:37am Feb 22, 2012 1:37am
Outcome:
The rally was over quicker than I had anticipated but we saw a small risk rally in both sessions ultimately 1.33 was the cap.

http://i42.tinypic.com/x98vc.jpg

Quoting Verb
Market Analysis:
Futures Indices (DAX, FTSE, IBEX, OMX, SMI & CAC40): FTSE creeping up...no trading in the US yesterday means that futures wont tell me anything ahead of time today.

Commodities: Gold consolidating at it's highs.

News: Greek debt deal is done. RBA kept rates the same and their outlook on Europe was stable however the deal made for Greece is really a debt swap, austerity and segregated account strategy backed by funding. I am still bearish on Euro for the mid-to-long term as it's unlikely that Greece's GDP will grow fast...
  • #20
  • Feb 22, 2012 9:48pm Feb 22, 2012 9:48pm
Outcome:
The euro traded in a range as expected with both pessimism and optimism equally balanced. Euro futures drove currency down at the equities open with follow-on while US futures were up and drove a rally to London's supply level. Although we did not see bearish extension beyond the range, I still remain bearish on EU. After 1.33 and taking profit on longs, most likely I will start to short full-time.

http://i40.tinypic.com/14b7xgl.jpg



Quoting Verb
02-22-2012 – EURUSD London to NY Session - #03

MARKET ANALYSIS: EURO
Futures Indices (DAX, IBEX35, OMX30, SMI, CAC40, FTSE & USDX): Down across the board and USD index up points to a bearish session.
Commodities (GOLD): Gold climbing +$20 from yesterday on risk aversion.
News: The market has realized that at best this Greek debt deal puts a band aid on for 2 months. After that, continued bearishness at best this is a temporary fix.

WHAT COULD HAPPEN?
London Equities Open (08:30AM UK): it’s weakness Wednesday and I’m expecting...
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