EurAnalysis

Its just my lucky trade buddy and you are not idiot

Daily Forex Analysis: The Euro Continues to Behave With Volatility
Posted by David Frank, Fx-Insights on 20/02/2012, at 02:32 AM
The EURUSD been volatile and frantic in February. The market has been trading sideways, and then broke higher than dipped lower and then reversed today.

We see strong resistance near 1.3600.

Looking down the Euros finds near term support at 1.3100 and then sees another support level at 1.3060.

http://www.fx-insights.com/images/up...3297231171.JPG

Again, as usual I have spent my monday reading all I can get from current situation in economics. One thing which came quite clear:

Greece will not survive. (Sorry PT and pals - I use forbidden word)

There is no chance for greece economy to become enough competitive to pay the debt. Since they have no domestic tool (i.e. currency) to manage their price level in global markets they cannot lower their price of labor and products to the level that would create enough demand and competition for a growth.

For example Turkey has a price level 30% lower than Greece. They are providing same services and products but much cheaper. Why would anyone buy expensive olive oil from Greece when Greeks them selves are buying their oil from Italy and Holland because it is cheaper?

What Greeks need is investors to invest Greece - as long as they don't have anything profitable to invest they don't have a chance get even Greek investors to invest Greece, not to speak about foreign investors. Would you invest?

Only possible way to survive is bankruptcy and exit from Euro. That way they would get their competitiveness back in global market in a couple of years and finally survive.

Why do we keep funding Greece?
Private investors have given loans worth billions to Greece. They do not want to lose their investments. As long as EU pumps money to the Greece they can pay their debt and get more loan. No one wants this to end.

Merkel is worried about Bundesbank and Commerze, because they cannot take the hit.

Sarkozy is worried about Societe General, which would fall in case of default in Greece.

Rest PM's and FinMins are more and less worried about their own investments - Finland has invested 66 billion through Finnish Central bank and ECB to Greece bonds. If Greece would default, ECB would lose it's investments and that way it may cause ECB to take huge losses = Finland's Central bank takes losses - Taxpayers take losses and in the end opposing political party (Basic Finns) were right all along... - they don't want that to happen. Also as long as Greece is kept under control by blackmailing with bailout funds they will not leave Euro and ECB investments can be considered to be "safe".

Why Greece take the money?
Greek politicians are playing time. they need to get enough time till elections where they can retreat with all promises and let new government carry consequences. I bet we don't see current coalition after elections...


All investments include risk factor. This is a case where investors must carry their risk and take losses. EU must NOT finance Greece.

I'd say: Let Greece default and crisis will be over much quicker than pumping money to bottomless pit where Greece has no chance to survive.

Does anybody know how much of the Greek bonds the USA has bought? It would be interesting to get a feel for the USA' exposure to a Greek default. Wonder if there's a place to find out.

Resisted @ 1.328x Zone and may be small retrace @ 1.322x area then resume for next up (IMO) ..

Hi Rod how are you doing today ?

Resistance is futile!

Recon - don't count on that. There is currently a meeting of European FinMins and they are making a decision of Greece bailout. That drop wasn't taking a speed for resistance but, comment from Netherlands FinMin who said that he cannot accept Bailout.

If they cannot make a decision today we will see a drop today.

FT live blog: http://blogs.ft.com/the-world/2012/0...#axzz1mvOfpfJX

Sorry for my courage to post off topic, but the matter in my opinion has to do with all of us.
European Solidarity: this is a huge duty and responsibility for all of us.
We must protect our rights. Signing the petition will indicate OPPOSITION to poverty and to individual and national subjugation, not only for Greek people but for Europe and abroad

Dear Europeans, in favor of removal of the onerous debt imposed on Greek people, please vote and spread the word:

http://www.1millionsignatures.eu

...what about a petition for an automatic ban and jail for politicians who mismanage the economy, waste loans to public expending instead of public investments, bet at least 2 generations to economic doom for their own selfish political gains and after they look for excuses somewhere else....

I may sign a petition like that...

No hard feelings mate, I agree that the average citizen in Greece is paying a high price in this mess but IMO it is always better to address the problem from its root and get rid of the ones who really create this mess...otherwise...history will repeat itself...

GL in your campaign and I hope Greece doesn't completely collapse

sisse

there wouldn't be many politicians left.............anywhere.

http://i.imgur.com/gppJ6.pngM15 consolidation.

Hi reckon, unfortunately i haven't had the time to trade I am just home from a weekend away in London so I'm playing catch up and planning my moves.

What I'm looking at now are dollar index and of course e/u.

Dollar index closed below the 61.8% daily fib. This has put 78.500 in my sights. At that point I expect it to be well oversold and a possible retrace upwards which will probably be capped yet again by the falling 50sma.

Coinciding with this the E/U came off a rising trendline resistance. At this point lies the 100sma on the daily. As such I expect this resistance to be broken tomorrow and next resistance to be seen at 1.3405-10 area. Given the PA and possible confluence of support on dollar index I'll be going heavily short.

However if broken I am eyeing the 200sma on the E/U but fundamentals have to be listened to and intrepreted very clearly as its difficult to gauge how investors will digest news from Greece.

How about you?

Lagarde and Papademos discussing about quarantees that austerity will be done.

Sisse, I agree with you to address the root of the the problem with what you said and with:

It is forbidden for all the governments to borrow money; Nobody has the right to make a citizen debtor without his or her consent and nobody has the right to make an unborn citizen debtor.

When I saw that picture, my thoughts were; "Oh Lucas, Lucas... You really screwed up this time."

Something like this?

Yup, excellent!

EURO potential H&S pattern was forming ++ renew 135B-->145B greece fund need for bailout concern the market!!!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_428998

Snippet:

Greece made to sweat over new loan agreement

Dutch finance minister suggests permanent troika presencehttp://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif

http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...izelos_390.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos (l) Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos (2nd l) and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday.</B> http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Eurozone finance ministers were locked in discussions late Monday as they attempted to reach a deal on a new bailout for Greece, amid concerns about the country’s debt sustainability and objections from at least one of the countries involved about the conditions under which any more loans should be dispersed.
Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos expressed optimism going into the Eurogroup talks in Brussels, suggesting that Greece had met the requirements demanded by its eurozone partners. He was accompanied by Prime Minister Lucas Papademos.

Papademos was there to run parallel talks with officials from the Institute of International Finance as Greece sought to tie up a debt restructuring deal with its bondholders.
Hopes that the bailout deal would be concluded last night took a knock when Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees De Jager expressed skepticism about whether Greece had met all the conditions.

He also suggested that the permanent presence of the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission -- or troika -- should be set up in Athens with powers over Greece’s economic policy. De Jager added that any new loans should not go to Greece but into an escrow account, where they could used to pay off debt first. Any extra funds would only be given to Athens if it met all the conditions.

Meanwhile, debt sustainability analysis conducted by the troika and seen by Reuters suggested Greece would need additional relief to cut its debts to 120 percent of GDP by 2020.

Greek banks would need as much as 50 billion euros in recapitalization funds, rather than 30 billion, the analysis suggests.

The troika’s report suggested that a restructuring of Greek debt by eurozone central banks would cut Greek debt by 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, while if the European Central Bank were to forgo its profit on Greek bonds purchased on the secondary market, debt would be reduced by another 5.5 percent of GDP.

The troika suggested that these actions along with other steps could bring Greece’s debt down to 120 percent of GDP by 2020, which was the target that the eurozone was aiming for. However, the analysis showed that Greek debt could reach as high as 160 percent of GDP in 2020 if the recession deepens and structural reforms are not carried out.
The troika expressed reservations about whether Athens would be able to conduct reforms at the pace required by its lenders.
ekathimerini.com , Monday February 20, 2012 (23:16)