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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,301
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:12pm Feb 18, 2012 4:12pm
Quoting clc4x
USD/JPY has a very bullish week last week. Now our concern is whether this is a sign of bullish reversal signal. Even if USD/JPY gone through a bullish week, USD/JPY yet to break 79.52 strong resistance level. Then, even if USD/JPY is able to break 79.52 next week, it still got another resistance level 81.46, then another strong resistance zone (83.96-85.51).


So, I will consider bullish reversal if USD/JPY breaks 83.96-85.51 or forms a strong bullish reversal pattern.

If you must copy and paste someone elses' analysis and chart.....make sure you give them the credit and provide a link. www.fxstreet.net
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,302
  • Feb 18, 2012 4:56pm Feb 18, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting realjumper
If you must copy and paste someone elses' analysis and chart.....make sure you give them the credit and provide a link. www.fxstreet.net
But must you give yourself credit if you copy and paste your own work?

Check the author name and then the profile of the forum poster

If you must be so quick to judge, at least get your facts right first.
All opinions stated are purely opinions.. I may be wrong!
  • #30,303
  • Feb 18, 2012 5:02pm Feb 18, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting slowlyslowly
But must you give yourself credit if you copy and paste your own work?

Check the author name and then the profile of the forum poster

If you must be so quick to judge, at least get your facts right first.
And you know that this poster is L C Chong how???? Because he says so??? Oh it's on the internet so it MUST be true, right?

When work appears on a commercial website, it is common courtesy to give credit to that website if the work is going to be copied to a forum. If that simple piece of courtesy is not followed, then we will have all sorts of analysis copied and pasted here as has happened numerous times.

Is it SO hard to simply paste a link to avoid any issue??????
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,304
  • Feb 18, 2012 7:27pm Feb 18, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting realjumper
And you know that this poster is L C Chong how???? Because he says so??? Oh it's on the internet so it MUST be true, right?

When work appears on a commercial website, it is common courtesy to give credit to that website if the work is going to be copied to a forum. If that simple piece of courtesy is not followed, then we will have all sorts of analysis copied and pasted here as has happened numerous times.

Is it SO hard to simply paste a link to avoid any issue??????
Don't argue on this kind of small matter. I am very 10000% sure clc4x is L. C. Chong. in the internet, you can different nick name ma.....
  • #30,305
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:31am Feb 19, 2012 7:31am
Quoting realjumper
And you know that this poster is L C Chong how???? Because he says so??? Oh it's on the internet so it MUST be true, right?
?
real jumper, i think you have jumped little early today , his signature link and fxstreet my blog link suggesting both author and poster are same person

in that case poster can't give (credit )link to his website as it may violate ff forum rule (no forum promotion)
Mohan
  • #30,306
  • Edited 7:56am Feb 19, 2012 7:39am | Edited 7:56am
Quoting Mpt
Chart patterns, wave patterns, technical analysis and, I guess, fundamentals that we don't yet know about. I will try to explain by charts tomorrow. In essence, what I will show is that, whilst everyone is getting bullish right now, I am of the opinion that the Yen pairs will have one last drop before we see a rise.
OK, here goes. .... And the above post should have read "at least one more drop" and "significant rise".

The USDJPY that we all know and love has been in a long term downtrend since 2007. (Just in case you hadn't already guessed that bit). During that time many people have tried to ascertain the exact structure (pattern) of the downtrend in an attempt to, as the saying goes, catch a falling knife. I personally know of one person who used to attend this forum who lost a small fortune by following his belief that the pair would never go much below 85 and would quickly climb back to 100. Even today, at 79.5, that 85 level seems like the stuff of dreams.

For many a month, lots of people, myself included, assumed that the long term descending TL of which we are all aware had major significance. I suggest that it didn't!

For people who trade waves, the UJ wave structure seemed difficult to ascertain, with a major problem being that what was deemed wave 3 was in breach of the rules, being shorter than what was called wave 1.

In the chart below, I am suggesting that part of the difficulty in identifying the exact pattern (which even now looks a little like a wedge triangle, but also doesn't exactly fit) is that the real downwards upper TL has yet to show itself, but may be about to do so at around the 85 price level. In essence, I am of the opinion that UJ is defintely in a formal, well fitting descending wedge pattern, but we have only completed wave 1 (or A) and are about to complete wave 2 (B) of either 3 waves or 5. In a wedge pattern (diagonal triangle) usually wave 2 or four are extremely complex, whereas wave 3 (or C) and 5 are simple to see and extremely quick to complete. As a wave 2 (or B), this has been an absolute shocker.

If it were a true five wave diagonal triangle, you would also expect wave 4 to trade into the area of 1. This aint gunna happen, so the triangle may end up only being a 3 wave, with my labelled 1 being A, 2 being B and 3 as C. But, enough with the semantics.

I have attempted to draw the major TLs as accurately as I can, per both price levels (support/resistance of known TLs, various internal channels and approaching major moving averages) and also in what I think are approximate timeframes. Let's just call it an educated guess. So, if you look back at a UJ chart in a few months, I THINK this is what you may see ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujdaily.jpg Size: 79 KB



So, in a nutshell, I am showing top of wave 2 (or B) completing at around 85.5, with a fairly rapid drop (more like a total crash at the end) to finish wave 3 (or C) at around the 68-70 area with, I would expect, some sort of mild panic response to follow.
  • #30,307
  • Feb 19, 2012 10:27am Feb 19, 2012 10:27am
We never know the future,We Only Can Follow Where the river flow
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,308
  • Feb 19, 2012 1:13pm Feb 19, 2012 1:13pm
Some simple charts below. Still bullish, but on a pullback look to buy near 77.70
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly.jpg Size: 90 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 113 KB
  • #30,309
  • Feb 19, 2012 1:57pm Feb 19, 2012 1:57pm
noobs shorting again this week no pullback maybe 82 monday
  • #30,310
  • Feb 19, 2012 2:53pm Feb 19, 2012 2:53pm
When it was the time to sell we had the guys buying the yen and now it is time to buy bottom complete got guys selling the yen....

RJ Thinking of a new thread ....

UJ,EJ and GJ...

Will contact you in due course let me get my ideas together..
Have a good week

Regards
BW
Be sensitive to subtle differences between 'intuition' and 'into wishing.
  • #30,311
  • Feb 19, 2012 3:25pm Feb 19, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting mohan76
real jumper, i think you have jumped little early today , his signature link and fxstreet my blog link suggesting both author and poster are same person

in that case poster can't give (credit )link to his website as it may violate ff forum rule (no forum promotion)
If that's the case then I apologise to him. However, he should know better because what he's doing is setting the example that it's ok to paste commercial analysis here, which will lead to others doing the same.....when the analysis may not be theirs.

I see your point, he's damned either way.....but we seem to get plagued from time to time with people posting other peoples analysis for commercial websites, which is just not right or fair to the originator or to FF who will receive complaints from the originator. That's why a simple link back to the original article is the right thing to do.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,312
  • Feb 19, 2012 3:32pm Feb 19, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting BlackWid0w
When it was the time to sell we had the guys buying the yen and now it is time to buy bottom complete got guys selling the yen....

RJ Thinking of a new thread ....

UJ,EJ and GJ...

Will contact you in due course let me get my ideas together..
Have a good week

Regards
BW
I'll be interested to hear your thoughts BW.....thanks.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,313
  • Feb 19, 2012 3:38pm Feb 19, 2012 3:38pm
Prices are updating on my platform .. 79.62/65 .. Might be in for a small gap up today at 17:00 EST .. Friday close I have is 79.48

Interested to see what happens at 80...
  • #30,314
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:09pm Feb 19, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting FXMindset
We never know the future,We Only Can Follow Where the river flow

You can show the future trend (plus or minus) in charting with some level of certainty. It's really not that hard. You just have to be able to understand and recognise the waypoints. It also helps alot if you can cross reference your charts with other pairs to confirm direction and target.

If you cannot do that, then I guess you will be forever just "following the river". It seems to work for some.

What you cannot predict is WHY or HOW prices get to their destination.



ps When did you get off your FF ban?
  • #30,315
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:36pm Feb 19, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting Mpt
What you cannot predict is WHY or HOW prices get to their destination.
I dont necessarily agree with that. Although on a short term basis, day to day there is a lot of noise and fluctuations. Understanding fundamentals will lead you to understand which way the trend will go.
  • #30,316
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:59pm Feb 19, 2012 5:59pm
Quoting BlackWid0w
When it was the time to sell we had the guys buying the yen and now it is time to buy bottom complete got guys selling the yen....

RJ Thinking of a new thread ....

UJ,EJ and GJ...

Will contact you in due course let me get my ideas together..
Have a good week

Regards
BW
This is how the game design to trap people
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,317
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:09pm Feb 19, 2012 6:09pm
Quoting Zac
I dont necessarily agree with that. Although on a short term basis, day to day there is a lot of noise and fluctuations. Understanding fundamentals will lead you to understand which way the trend will go.
Be that as it may. In any case, at the moment I see this part of the move capping at 80.4 before a 61.8 or 76.4 retracement.

Best wishes
  • #30,318
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:17pm Feb 19, 2012 6:17pm
Quoting FXMindset
This is how the game design to trap people
Buddy I was talking about this particular thread...

Regards
BW
Be sensitive to subtle differences between 'intuition' and 'into wishing.
  • #30,319
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:25pm Feb 19, 2012 6:25pm
Quoting Mpt
Be that as it may. In any case, at the moment I see this part of the move capping at 80.4 before a 61.8 or 76.4 retracement.

Best wishes
That would be nice if it happened and got to new lows again.
How do you calculate a 61.8 retracement?
That would be armageddon for Japan wouldnt it? Lead to their suicide.
  • #30,320
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:36pm Feb 19, 2012 6:36pm
Time for a pull back before pushing further on.......80 won't fold easily

Edit: That's the H1 chart btw
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 111 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
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