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EURUSD

  • #596,921
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:14am Feb 19, 2012 4:14am
wow, what a lively place.

i might decide to take short too. More of us, better
  • #596,922
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:19am Feb 19, 2012 4:19am
Quoting Hatzerim
They can't be blamed, but they can't also be included in the EU with that economics...
That's why I believe we will soon be on the downtrend again

But Hell Who Knows?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #596,923
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:28am Feb 19, 2012 4:28am
Quoting KillerWhale
But Hell Who Knows?
No one knows, in deed, but probabilities are pointing that way...I agree with you, we will be on a downtrend soon!
Best Regards!
  • #596,924
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:34am Feb 19, 2012 4:34am
Quoting Hatzerim
No one knows, in deed, but probabilities are pointing that way...I agree with you, we will be on a downtrend soon!
On the one hand, I would love to put in a short at somewhere 1.32++ and let it go all the way to 1.20 or so for a 1000+ pip profit, but on the other hand it would be stupid because there will be a lot of ups and downs so my net pip gain could be 5000 pips on the way down and 3000 pips in between with ups.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #596,925
  • Feb 19, 2012 4:36am Feb 19, 2012 4:36am
Quoting KillerWhale
On the one hand, I would love to put in a short at somewhere 1.32++ and let it go all the way to 1.20 or so for a 1000+ pip profit, but on the other hand it would be stupid because there will be a lot of ups and downs so my net pip gain could be 5000 pips on the way down and 3000 pips in between with ups.

based on experience, what do you think of the gap on monday? 30pips up or down?
I think it will show high!
  • #596,926
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:11am Feb 19, 2012 5:11am
Quoting motoro
based on experience, what do you think of the gap on monday? 30pips up or down?
I think it will show high!
china RRR cut should give gap up (around 315x's) unless Greece screw as before opening
Mohan
  • #596,927
  • Feb 19, 2012 5:18am Feb 19, 2012 5:18am
We just don't know, some people might think we'll get a boost from Greece stuff, others might think that Greece cannot hold the austerities required.
Personally I think the last is the one we have to deal with.

We just don't know, we have to see and watch what's happening.
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  • #596,928
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:08am Feb 19, 2012 6:08am
Quoting betteridea
Yes my SL @ 1.3269 was taken last week - I liked the price action after the top formation and re-entered a new short @ 1.3264.

But my issue is not really my SL placement as I put it far enough from entry - the real issue I am still working on is selecting the ideal entry zone because many times the entry zone I selected price moves to the next one. I guess thats what makes my style difficult because I can't stand to watch the screen all day.

Any ideas in selecting better entry zones in relation to 1H swings I am all ears!

Only thing...
Hi betteridea, imo, it looks like eu is forming complex h&s pattern atm (check larger tf's). these are not easy to trade. the ideal entry would be to short 3235 or 3284, this would make for an ideal right shoulder. however, on friday, this pair validated the downtrending tl with the third touch at 3197. although, technically speaking we have a short-term short bias in this situation, i dont see any good areas to sell this pair presently (the tl validation has already happened, and for me shorting it would be chasing the market). therefore, i prefer longs in the near-term (monday, tuesday) as per my plan posted here on thursday. on the other hand, if we suddenly break the neck of the pattern, i would be looking for shorts again, on the retest.
  • #596,929
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:17am Feb 19, 2012 6:17am
its simple.....eurusd is on a long term upleg with possibility of it extending to 1.38-1.40 within the next 3-4 mnths....1.28 was the cyclical low....have been going long for quite sometime now on every dip....
  • #596,930
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:42am Feb 19, 2012 6:42am
Quoting cammomile
ouch... been there, got a t-shirt. on the positive side, you learnt a great lesson on risk management here. i'd say at a reasonable price too.
Thanks for the answer cammomile, but any suggestions on how to handle it? I thought of letting it go up to 1.32200 and then close the longs and leave the shorts opened in the hope of a down trend. Or the other way around if it opens on the low side, but have not clear the support price (maybe 1.30500?)
  • #596,931
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:46am Feb 19, 2012 6:46am
Quoting ns_karthik
its simple.....eurusd is on a long term upleg with possibility of it extending to 1.38-1.40 within the next 3-4 mnths....1.28 was the cyclical low....have been going long for quite sometime now on every dip....
Agreed.. I've been buying the dips aswell. Most of the guys here can't see the big picture.
  • #596,932
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:52am Feb 19, 2012 6:52am
Quoting diggo
Agreed.. I've been buying the dips aswell. Most of the guys here can't see the big picture.
yeah...thats how the retail traders trade...cant help them...
  • #596,933
  • Feb 19, 2012 6:54am Feb 19, 2012 6:54am
brb...do yourself a favor and stop listening to the news...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu vsa1.jpg Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu vsa2.jpg Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 4hr.jpg Size: 158 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 122 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 240m.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #596,934
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:09am Feb 19, 2012 7:09am
Quoting ns_karthik
yeah...thats how the retail traders trade...cant help them...
Basically, trade against the herd of retailers and you'll be doing just fine!
  • #596,935
  • Edited 7:59am Feb 19, 2012 7:12am | Edited 7:59am
Quoting Hatzerim
No one knows, in deed, but probabilities are pointing that way...I agree with you, we will be on a downtrend soon!
Greek news is a bit like technical resistance line, we bash into it for the first time and tank, we bash into it for the second time and tank again, but not as much as the first time, the third approach produces a nice short again. So, we think: great - this is a super duper strong unbreakable resistance and continue shorting it. What we don't realise is that each approach weakens the effect, and the resistance becomes support...but we don't notice it and continue shorting second-hand news.
  • #596,936
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:17am Feb 19, 2012 7:17am
my view is euro will drop heavily at the open because of the greece problem......this week should be a heavy sell candle on EU
I have past history of statements to justify what i say.
  • #596,937
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:45am Feb 19, 2012 7:45am
Quoting diggo
.... Most of the guys here can't see the big picture.
Do you mean in the longer run Euro is going to get stronger? Is that the big picture?
Better get rich slowly rather than going broke fast.
  • #596,938
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:49am Feb 19, 2012 7:49am
Quoting piptopip
Do you mean in the longer run Euro is going to get stronger? Is that the big picture?
Correct. US dollar will continue to weaken. It's good for the US afterall. Euro zone will have positive growth this year. 1.40 is a likely target
  • #596,939
  • Feb 19, 2012 7:56am Feb 19, 2012 7:56am
Quoting diggo
Correct. US dollar will continue to weaken. It's good for the US afterall. Euro zone will have positive growth this year. 1.40 is a likely target
That's a strong statement... which member of the board of ECB are you: voting or non-voting?
  • #596,940
  • Feb 19, 2012 8:12am Feb 19, 2012 8:12am
Inserted Video


lets start from this area,

http://i.imgur.com/tKkVT.png
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