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  • #596,881
  • Feb 18, 2012 5:56am Feb 18, 2012 5:56am
Hi Everyone, I am new to this post, and first will like to thank you all for your helpfull information. I have been trading the makets for a year now and got my share of ups and downs, but now I feel i am prepared to do a decent and consisten trading. February 1st I started real account with 1.500 eur and last wednesday got it up to 3.000 with over 70% positive trades. The problem came on thursday when i opened short on eurusd 1.06 lots and gbpusd 0.83lots at it lowest (1.2983 eur and 1.56684 cable). As i received magin call from the broker i was obliged to hedge both positions and opened long 1.06 lots eur usd at 1.31535 and 0.83 lots on cable at 1.58384). So I am in a mouse trap right now. Any ideas or systems on how to manage this trap and get out? Current balance is 2.527€ and equity/free margin is 573€. thanks for your help in advance!!
  • #596,882
  • Feb 18, 2012 6:16am Feb 18, 2012 6:16am
From my point of view, if we will not see a good news related to EZ crisis next week , I think that we will see 1.28 as per the below Daily chart.

AM I RIGHT??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR USD DAILY CHART.jpg Size: 266 KB
EUR/USD Trust your strategy
  • #596,883
  • Feb 18, 2012 6:18am Feb 18, 2012 6:18am
EURO FX (CME) COT Data

Speculators increased bearish bets on the EUR FX (CME) by 5%. 148,641 net short contracts were registered, which is an increase from the 140,593 seen over the previous weeks reporting period; this equates to $24.4 billion in bearish EUR FX (CME) wagers.

Non commercial longs are 26,774 and short side futures contracts registered 175,415. This is a change in commitments from: February 7, 2012 of -5,354 longs and 2,694 shorts as shown in the data below. This COT report data does not capture the strong rally in EURUSD which was seen as the week developed and next weeks data could be an interesting read.

http://www.forex-fx-4x.com/wp-conten...2012-02-17.png
  • #596,884
  • Feb 18, 2012 6:20am Feb 18, 2012 6:20am
  •  Now
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: 'I should have taken the money' | 654 Posts
Quoting sidhujag
Looks to me on h4, profit taking or not, PA changes you trade it, will look at it on Mon
I share the same with you.

Downtrend on Daily and 4H charts in tact. Thursdays dip-buying from 1.2980 on hopes of Greek solution run into a brick wall on Friday at 1.3200. Strong sell interest between 1.32 and 1.33, hard nut to break.

With the weekend and low liquidity on Monday due to bank Holiday anything can happen from here.

To my opinion, bail out approved or not, the problems are far from over.

Buy the rumor sell the fact!

From DJ last Friday:

Quote
2:00 (Dow Jones) If the EU, et al, drag this Greece nonsense out for another four or five months, the Greeks will have had time to print and mint new drachmas. I can't imagine them wanting -- or being able -- to hang by a tightening fiscal noose for very long. I wouldn't be surprised if the deal has already been struck for the Greeks to exit the euro, and that the idea now is to get the world so used to the idea of a default that when the Greeks walk, the euro would get a lift just from the relief of their departure. Banks would also have had time to write off as much Greek debt as possible and tap into the ECB three-year financing vehicle. It could be that the companies that print money already are working on the new drachma. Or maybe Greeks are rolling away the boulder that blocks the cave where the old drachmas are stored. Resurrection -- it's a wondrous event
Being right is one, taking it from the table is two.
  • #596,885
  • Edited 11:04am Feb 18, 2012 10:47am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting fxprocessor
EURO FX (CME) COT Data

Speculators increased bearish bets on the EUR FX (CME) by 5%. 148,641 net short contracts were registered, which is an increase from the 140,593 seen over the previous weeks reporting period; this equates to $24.4 billion in bearish EUR FX (CME) wagers.

Non commercial longs are 26,774 and short side futures contracts registered 175,415. This is a change in commitments from: February 7, 2012 of -5,354 longs and 2,694 shorts as shown in the data below. This [url="http://www.forex-fx-4x.com/japanese-yen-strength-decreases-speculators-cut-bets-cot-report-th-february/"]COT...
Thanks for posting. Just wondering how reliable this information is since it has a three days lag? I'd watch sovereign fixed income markets in the current trading conditions, and the fluctuation in yields in particular, together with other correlated markets. However, euro is in the world of its own at the moment, and, I believe, its correlation to other risk, like aussie and kiwi for example, which I see some people here are still watching, is somewhat different to what it was even 6 months ago.
  • #596,886
  • Feb 18, 2012 11:25am Feb 18, 2012 11:25am
Quoting jjmuggs
Hi everyone - first post here, still very 'green'. Been demo-trading for about a year and have learned alot, but obviously not enough since my results have been crappy! Not ready to go live yet.
I've spent some time over in the other forum trying out systems / strategies / indicators ... I notice over here (in the most popular thread) the talk is more about S/R, fib and fundamental analysis in predicting the EUR/USD direction.
So my first question is this -
To all the EUR/USD guru's in here who actually make real money - what is your preferred...
There aint any gurus in here. All of them sit on the board of directors of the European Central Bank and don't post in this or any other forums on FF. But if you want an opinion of someone with slightly more experience, you need to learn at least two: s&r/pa and fundamentals, indicators are not that important, but can be useful occasionally.
  • #596,887
  • Feb 18, 2012 11:34am Feb 18, 2012 11:34am
Quoting daecpa
Hi Everyone, I am new to this post, and first will like to thank you all for your helpfull information. I have been trading the makets for a year now and got my share of ups and downs, but now I feel i am prepared to do a decent and consisten trading. February 1st I started real account with 1.500 eur and last wednesday got it up to 3.000 with over 70% positive trades. The problem came on thursday when i opened short on eurusd 1.06 lots and gbpusd 0.83lots at it lowest (1.2983 eur and 1.56684 cable). As i received magin call from the broker i was...
ouch... been there, got a t-shirt. on the positive side, you learnt a great lesson on risk management here. i'd say at a reasonable price too.
  • #596,888
  • Feb 18, 2012 11:52am Feb 18, 2012 11:52am
Seems lots of negative forecast & news for EU. I am a little worried for my longs. Hopefully not a big gap when the market opens.

Bloomberg: Euro May Fall to Lowest in Two Years on ‘Bear Trend’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-analysis.html

Bloomberg: Euro to Fall to $1.15 in 2012 on ECB Lending, Feb. 16
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/86510684/

Bloomberg: China Cuts Bank Reserve Reqs; Exports ’Grim’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ns-growth.html
  • #596,889
  • Feb 18, 2012 11:59am Feb 18, 2012 11:59am
Quoting ibpo
Eurusd weekly trading range from 1hour chart to monthly chart
Love your signature! But you missed 3080 in your h1 analysis, any reasons?
  • #596,890
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:17pm Feb 18, 2012 2:17pm
Quoting HermanGoring
Haven't followed any news today. Any news from Greece yet on the default issue?
You serious with this nick you butthole? Learn history to find out how many crimes this creature commited and then come back with some normal nickname...
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #596,891
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:29pm Feb 18, 2012 2:29pm
No trade for me on Friday.

1.32 will be a big challenge and if price wiggles itself up there again I will go short with SL @ 1.3279 and TP @ 1.3090

For a long ideal @ 1.3050 to 1.3080 with SL @ 1.2960 and TP @ 1.3195 - I would really like it if price retraces to 1.3080 so I can get on a long before it tests 1.32.

For Monday 1.305-80 area support appears ideal - 38% of major daily up swing from 1.26, TL break then pullback as support of last 1H upper down TL, ideal right shoulder support pattern, ideal area for a higher low if price is to go higher to form the lower TL.

Let see how Greece will be playing out .....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.jpg Size: 172 KB
  • #596,892
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:36pm Feb 18, 2012 2:36pm
I am new here but I trade for several years. My Idea is that I dont trade when we are waiting for news that really effect the market I stay away from trading. So no trades for monday for me.
  • #596,893
  • Feb 18, 2012 2:55pm Feb 18, 2012 2:55pm
I think the break of 1.3026 followed by the fake brake out attempt @ 1.3190 is much more significant than a lot of you think, to me it is a sign that longs are running out of steam.
Maybe one last hick up when Greece stuff settles Monday but that's about it.
I'm preparing to get a few good entries for a longer term short trade.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #596,894
  • Feb 18, 2012 5:13pm Feb 18, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting KillerWhale
I think the break of 1.3026 followed by the fake brake out attempt @ 1.3190 is much more significant than a lot of you think, to me it is a sign that longs are running out of steam.
Maybe one last hick up when Greece stuff settles Monday but that's about it.
I'm preparing to get a few good entries for a longer term short trade.
I am with you on this. I believe that the market will be 'euphoric' when the deal is finally announced, but that to me will sign the reversal back to the downtrend targeting the lows from earlier. This has been the similar approach the market took before and after summits, and also most recently after the austerity measures were approved by the Greeks.

I'm targeting a long terms sell @1.3200 with a TP1 of 1.2980, TP2 1.26, with slowly building up my position once it reaches my TP1.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #596,895
  • Feb 18, 2012 6:00pm Feb 18, 2012 6:00pm
Personally, I don't have and don't want to have any bias on this market at the moment. Just taking one day at a time.
  • #596,896
  • Feb 18, 2012 7:11pm Feb 18, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting mercy seat
Covered everything at 1.3142 ...

Ende Gelände ...

TIME 17h30 CET

Entries of these orders been at 1.3187 ...




;-|

TABLE with a brief survey for the EUR/USD pair ...

At this point of time without any comments ... STRENG NEUTRAL ...

But most important things ... Elliott for direction ... immediate range bandwith and projections from most significant turning points etcetera ... they are shown already ...

2012-02-17_23h00 - ZigZag + Pivot Survey _ EURUSD _ Rollover _ W-07 va 1

And thus you have got the chance to take your own stance at first ...

Although a few points are expressed with this survey ... therefore it should be not a big issue to get some nice fresh ideas ...

Maybe I will reply to you later ...





;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #596,897
  • Feb 18, 2012 7:17pm Feb 18, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting betteridea
No trade for me on Friday.

1.32 will be a big challenge and if price wiggles itself up there again I will go short with SL @ 1.3279 and TP @ 1.3090

For a long ideal @ 1.3050 to 1.3080 with SL @ 1.2960 and TP @ 1.3195 - I would really like it if price retraces to 1.3080 so I can get on a long before it tests 1.32.

For Monday 1.305-80 area support appears ideal - 38% of major daily up swing from 1.26, TL break then pullback as support of last 1H upper down TL, ideal right shoulder support pattern, ideal area for a higher low if price is to go...
Nice to see one of your well done one hour grafics again ...






;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #596,898
  • Feb 18, 2012 8:37pm Feb 18, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting betteridea
No trade for me on Friday.

1.32 will be a big challenge and if price wiggles itself up there again I will go short with SL @ 1.3279 and TP @ 1.3090

For a long ideal @ 1.3050 to 1.3080 with SL @ 1.2960 and TP @ 1.3195 - I would really like it if price retraces to 1.3080 so I can get on a long before it tests 1.32.

For Monday 1.305-80 area support appears ideal - 38% of major daily up swing from 1.26, TL break then pullback as support of last 1H upper down TL, ideal right shoulder support pattern, ideal area for a higher low if price is...
I like your ideas but like last week, I think your stoploss is at a questionable place. And last week it was taken if you didn't move it.
Your sl will be right 4 pips under a daily high. (1.3283)
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #596,899
  • Feb 18, 2012 8:47pm Feb 18, 2012 8:47pm
so whats the consensus for moday up after vote is passed?
  • #596,900
  • Feb 18, 2012 9:05pm Feb 18, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting sidhujag
so whats the consensus for moday up after vote is passed?
No one can tell you, just wait and see
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
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