EurAnalysis

Sunshine and Puppies

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As they say on the street “It’s all good, YO!” and I say the same: “It’s all good!” What exactly is so perfect? The indices are rising and AAPL especially is up, so that’s all that matters. In fact, some estimates claim that 90% of the recent USSA equity rally was due to AAPL alone. What’s that; AAPL is carrying most of the entire world’s equity gains ???? Phheeeeew, No worries there son. Seriously though – this sort of scenario has ALWAYS worked out well…and I don’t mean on the “business end” on the spear.

In other news, there is no…I repeat…NO!!!...reason to worry about the debt of the USSA.

The debt of the USSA “comrade Vladashminska-whoever” is HUGE and growing as you will see below from our friends at ZH. But don’t worry folks, it’s all sunshine & puppies from here…this time *cough*…its *cough*…different.

Today, the US total debt rose by $32 billion touching on a new record high of $15.392 trillion. As a reminder this is just the beginning: as we noted yesterday, according to the president's own budget total US debt is now expected to surpasses the greatest and final debt ceiling of $16.4 trillion just around September, and likely sooner with the addition of the $160 billion in additional debt needed to fund the extension of the Bush temporary yet perpetual tax cut through the end of 2012. So while we know that total debt to GDP is already over 100% and unlikely to ever decline back to double digits, thus putting into question the marginal utility of debt to generate further economic growth, another just as important question is what is the incremental utility of tax revenue relative to debt issuance, i.e., is America now issuing more debt than it is collecting from tax revenues: a step which would further cement its status as a banana debt republic. The chart below should provide some comfort in that regard. In fiscal 2012, starting October 31 through today, the US has collected $677.6 billion in withholdings taxes, while issuing $601 billion in debt over the same period of time. In other words, for now at least tax revenues are running 12% above debt issuance. Alas, considering that according to the president's own budget there is another $1 trillion in debt issuance over the next seven and a half months, we have a very distinct feeling the red line will cross the blue line yet again, and quite soon at that. Naturally, a logical question arises: why not just do away with taxes entirely and have all US capital needs be debt funded? After all, all of that "saved or created" tax money would be used to buy bonds or better yet, iBonds, or something just as silly. And the USD would never, ever, lose its status as reserve currency...

Cumulative Fiscal 2012 YTD debt issuance vs tax withholdings.



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I am so looking forward to revealing more scams of the congressional USSA and its so-called leader…the president of the heretoforeknown “United States of America.”

And why do I call it the USSA? Why else; we are now the United Socialist States of America. OK, we have been since the “Guns and Butter” days of the 50s but this has got to stop…now!
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

Thanks guys!!! Highly appreciated!!!

Germany wants decision on PSI and bailout Monday




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...ocoinsmany.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
Germany wants euro-area finance chiefs to avoid splitting consideration of a 130 billion-euro Greek rescue and a bond swap to cut the nation’s debt load at a meeting next week, coalition lawmakers were told.
As long as Greece meets conditions for the aid, the finance ministers meeting in Brussels will probably approve the package along with the debt exchange, three German officials involved in a telephone briefing by German government officials said. A Finance Ministry spokesman declined to comment.
Wrangling among euro-area finance ministers on a Feb. 15 conference call over how to reduce Greece’s debt load and tighten control of the aid raised the prospect of a two-step process, according to two people familiar with the talks. In that scenario, the ministers’ Feb. 20 gathering in Brussels would be limited to kicking off the bond exchange and deferring decision on the rest of the bailout funds.

“We expect the Greeks to rise to their responsibilities,” German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter told a group of lawyers in Hamburg yesterday. “This coming Monday, we will see whether Greece delivers or whether we will be forced to decide on another course of action, one that is not desired.”

As recriminations fly between Greece and its northern European creditors, the clock is ticking toward a March 20 bond redemption when Greece must pay 14.5 billion euros or trigger the first sovereign default in the euro’s 13-year history.

Investors sent the euro and global stocks higher as they anticipated the culmination of the seven-month effort to complete a second bailout for Greece. The currency was little changed at $1.3136 at 9:02 in Berlin after rising yesterday for the first time in five days.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_428430


NO DEAL BY MONDAY UNLESS IT SERVES the Purposes of Germany !!!

("INTERVIEW: Ifo's Sinn: In Greece's Interest To Leave Euro Zone," at 1246 GMT, misstated the year in the 11th paragraph. The correct version follows
By Hans Bentzien and Todd Buell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The head of a prominent German economics institute said it is in the interests of the Greeks themselves to leave the euro zone, because only then can the country regain competitiveness and prosperity.
Hans-Werner Sinn, the head of the Ifo Institute, also said the EUR130 billion proposed second bailout package for Greece would be better used to help the embattled country recapitalize its banking system, while re-introducing its former currency, the drachma.
"There is no way that Greece can become competitive in the euro zone," he told Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal Deutschland in an interview Thursday. "It would need to cut its prices by 31% to get them to the level of Turkey, and that would bring the country to the brink of a civil war."
To attempt to engage in such deflationary policies on a grand scale within the euro zone would be irresponsible, as it would "split the country apart," he said. Only when the drachma is re-introduced and devalued can the country prosper again, he said.
Sinn's fears over a breakdown in civil order aren't without foundation. In what has become a disturbingly frequent scene in recent years, Greek protesters fought with police and set fire to buildings as the country's parliament voted Sunday on a new package of austerity measures in order to secure the EUR130 billion bailout from the country's international creditors, the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank, known as the troika.
Instead, Sinn recommends that the EUR130 billion be granted as "interim aid, above all to recapitalize the banks," and help cushion a potential re-introduction of the drachma. He rejected concerns that the entire euro zone could break apart were Greece to leave.
"The risk of a break up exists," he said, but it is being exaggerated "excessively" by those who own the bonds of euro-zone countries that are perceived to be risky.
Greece's borrowing costs are considerably higher than even other euro zone states perceived as somewhat risky. For example, Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields are now considerably below the 7% level considered as being unsustainable. Italy is trading at 5.6%, while Spain is trading at 5.3%, according to Tradeweb. Greece on the other hand has a yield of 32.3% on its 10-year note. Portuguese 10-year yields are trading at 11.8%, but this is below the 14% yields seen about a month ago.
"Everyone today is prepared for Greece's exit and a spillover of the crisis to Ireland is ruled out. The capital markets can in all likelihood definitely tell the difference," he said. Sinn did, however, concede that Portugal is in danger of being caught in the same situation to the one that Greece now finds itself.
Greek development minister Michalis Chrisochoidis told a group of journalists Wednesday that the country's beleaguered economy would likely shrink 6% this year, after contracting by that amount in 2011.
The Ifo Institute publishes one of the most important indicators in Germany. Its widely watched monthly survey of German firms has shown an improving assessment of the business climate in the past three months. Against this backdrop, and in line with the views of many economists, Sinn said the institute expected the German economy to rebound in the first quarter of this year following a 0.2% contraction in the final quarter of 2011, due to rising growth in developing countries and an ongoing investment boom in Germany.
Sinn also took issue with current ECB monetary policy. He said that if the ECB were to hand over the Greek government bonds that it has on its balance sheet, then it would have to do it at face value. This would rule out the possibility of the ECB selling its bonds to the euro zone's temporary bailout fund--the European Financial Stability Facility--at the purchase price or taking a loss on its holdings.
He also said that newly loosened collateral rules in the Eurosystem serve as "special measures for financing the south" of Europe, which "hinder necessary adjustments of relative prices. We have not yet seen any change in relative prices in the periphery states," with the exception of Ireland, he said.
Moreover, the ECB's offering of three-year loans to financial institutions is inappropriately flooding southern Europe with funds, which by definition has an inflationary effect. In Sinn's view, southern Europe should be making itself more competitive by bringing prices and wages down.
-By Hans Bentzien and Todd Buell, Dow Jones Newswires, +49 692 972 5514, [email protected]

are u beiing sarcastic? or u know the answer? srry for the english not my native language

Somebody has to stand guard in the looney bin!

Poor Kenny !!! Cartman is amazing. I could be like Cartman when I feel like it...

There is always Humor in Truth...

Thanks for the post...

I Meant I Love South Park ? Maybe I Do Live It...

There has been less correlation in the last two weeks because of fear of default. There also has been intervention by Japan in JPY and they have Sold JPY and bought Euro. This affected correlations. As well when Dow goes UP money does not Flow to Euro as much as before. When Dow goes down MONEY does Flow out of Euro.

Have A Nice Weekend...

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_428586


Snippet:

Prime minister makes final push for bailout

Papademos speaks to Merkel, Monti and Rutte ahead of Eurogroup meeting on Mondayhttp://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif

http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/eng2/...tockup_480.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif A man carries his tablet as rising stock prices are on display at the reception hall of the Athens Stock Exchange in Athens. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is trying to win round European leaders ahead of a Eurogroup meeting on Monday.</B> http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Prime Minister Lucas Papademos appeared to have a constructive discussion with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti Friday as he attempts to win round European leaders ahead of a Eurogroup meeting on Monday, when finance ministers are due to decide whether to approve a new bailout for Greece.
Papademos took part in a teleconference after Monti suggested that he should be part of the talks with Merkel. Sources said Monti was adamant that eurozone finance ministers should make a final decision on the loan agreement on Monday rather than refer it to a European Union leaders summit at the beginning of March.
Friday’s teleconference was also an opportunity for Merkel to clarify Germany’s position on whether Greece should remain in the eurozone. Comments from Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble and other German officials this week prompted concern that Berlin was considering allowing Greece to default. Sources said that Merkel insisted this was not the case and that she wants Greek debt restructuring and the new bailout to proceed.

Papademos also spoke Friday to Mark Rutte, the prime minister of the Netherlands, another country that has expressed doubt about whether Greece should receive a new bailout. Sources said that the Greek premier will also attempt to find common ground with Portugal, Spain and Ireland, which would be threatened by a disorderly Greek bankruptcy.

Papademos is due to chair a Cabinet meeting today so ministers can approve the 325 million euros in cuts that Greece needs to make to meet the final condition set by the Eurogroup. The bill could then be submitted to Parliament for voting Saturday or Monday.

Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who will chair Monday’s Eurogroup meeting, said efforts to slash Greece’s debt from 160 percent of GDP to a target of 120 by 2020 were still “far away” from fruition. “All the discussions I will have... until Sunday night will try to move the figure nearer to the target,” he said.

A report by The Wall Street Journal Friday suggested that the International Monetary Fund would only contribute 13 billion euros out of 130 billion for Greece’s second package. The IMF had contributed 27 percent of Greece’s first package of 109 billion euros. If the IMF takes a smaller role in the second package, eurozone countries would have to make up the difference.
ekathimerini.com , Friday February 17, 2012 (23:09)

Thankyou so much, and same to you, and to all the other wonderful contributors here. Weekends are great for catching up on all the info you post (amongst other things lol!)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...81G11620120217

And Printed US Bonds by the FED !!!

Snippet:

Italian police said on Friday they had seized about $6 trillion worth of fake U.S. Treasury bonds and other securities in Switzerland, and arrested eight Italians accused of international fraud and other financial crimes.

The operation, co-ordinated by prosecutors from the southern Italian city of Potenza, was carried out by Italian, Swiss and U.S. authorities after a year-long investigation, an Italian police source said.

It began as a investigation into mafia loan-sharking, but gradually expanded as prosecutors used telephone and computer intercepts to unearth evidence of illegal activity surrounding Treasury bonds.
The fake securities, worth more than a third of U.S. national debt, were seized in January from a Swiss trust company where they were held in three large trunks.

The U.S. Embassy in Rome thanked the Italian authorities and said the forgeries were "an attempt to defraud several Swiss banks". It said U.S. experts had helped to identify the bonds as fakes.

Guysssssssss

Its Weekend,Enjoy your day ya

Market Weekly Wrap-up: Feb 13th - Feb 17th

- Chaos in the streets of Athens dominated the news again this week, as pictures of riot police and burning buildings suggested that Greek society was at the breaking point in the face of austerity. The Greek parliament passed another package of spending cuts demanded by the Troika last weekend, even as the leader of government coalition member party New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, told his MPs to support the legislation now so they could change the policies later. Euro zone officials delayed a decision from Wednesday, Feb 15th to Monday, Feb 20th on whether or not to authorize the next €130B in bailout funds, and there was plenty more talk of various European institutions, from governments to corporations preparing for a possible Greek default.

Moody's stepped in on Wednesday, cutting ratings on over 130 global financial firms and six European countries, and put France's and the UK's Aaa ratings on watch. As in recent weeks, somewhat more positive US economic data is helping to distract markets from the European debt crisis, namely steadily improving weekly jobless claims data, some positive housing news and an excellent February Philly Fed report. The minutes of the Fed's January 24-25 meeting suggested that some Fed governors still believe a third round of quantitative easing could be needed in 2012 to support the US economy.

Chinese Vice Premier Xi (who is set to be named the new Chinese premier in 2013) was much in the news due to his visit to the US this week. PBOC advisor Xia Bin said that US Treasuries should remain China's FX investment of choice, even as the latest TIC data showed that China's total holdings of USTs in December fell for the third consecutive month. For the week the S&P 500 advanced 1.4%, the NASDAQ grew 1.7%, and the DJIA gained 1.2%, ending just 50 points shy of 13,000 at its highest level since May 2008. In Asia, the Nikkei225 also pushed out to a 6-month high on Friday above 9,400.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_428616

Snippet:

‘We Are All Greeks Now’ rallies in Europe, US



http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/eng2/...480_180212.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif A wave of solidarity to crisis victims Greeks is sweeping the world, with a special event planned for Saturday afternoon in a number of cities.
More than 10 cities in Europe will see demonstrations under the banner “We Are All Greeks Now”, including Paris and Dublin.
“The people of Greece need the international solidarity and they call for our support. Let’s reply to their call. We are all Greeks,” reads the circular distributed across social media for the rallies that are scheduled to take place at 2 p.m.
A rally is also planned in New York, at the same park that the Occupy Wall Street rallies had started this winter.
Social media groups in solidarity to the Greek people suffering from the austerity measures and the fiscal crisis have also called for action as they express the fear that what the Greeks are going through is going to apply to other people soon, too.
At the jesuisgrec.blogspot.com blog, Internet users are invited to sign a form asking for Greek citizenship in solidarity to the Greeks.
ekathimerini.com , Saturday February 18, 2012 (11:44)

From WWW.JSMINESET.COM

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
When Lehman was flushed the OTC derivative problem lost any chance of a solution.

There was a solution before the flush.

Should a default occur in Greece, confirmed by the ISDA, (International Swaps and Derivatives Association) the CDS (credit default swaps) pile of crap is finished.

Lehman Crisis Veterans Warn Europe Leaders Against Provoking Greek Default
By Sandrine Rastello and Simon Kennedy – Feb 17, 2012 7:23 AM ET

Neel Kashkari, who was on the policy frontlines when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. crumpled in 2008, warns European governments against pushing Greece too far as they impose conditions for aid.

“It can be very politically satisfying to be tough, but if an uncontrolled default were to lead to contagion around the euro zone, that could be very damaging for all of Europe and for the global economy,” said Kashkari, who four years ago was an aide to then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and now is head of global equities at Pacific Investment Management Co.

Kashkari is not alone among the Treasury veterans who fought the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression and now say the euro area should be careful of taking too hard a line with Greece. Their battle-seasoned advice: Avoid encouraging a default unless first acting to ensure foreign economies and banks are protected from the aftershocks.

“This seems like brinkmanship on the part of the European leaders,” said Phillip Swagel, the Treasury’s former chief economist, who now teaches at the University of Maryland in College Park. “The better approach is to prepare for a future failure so they have a more credible threat to allow Greece to default and possibly leave the euro zone.”
More…

Every once in awhile there is someone with no agenda other than the truth. Calm, reasoned and to the point. I will post the link and some snippets. It would be well worth your time to read, understand and file the information in your memory bank. We are approaching a breaking point and being aware and prepared gives you an edge.

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...ill-be-orderly

Snippet:

The market seems to be pricing in an orderly Greek default or a successful "firewall" around the potential instability. Are the unknowns really all known?

The equities market is acting like we know Greece's default will be orderly and no threat to financial stability. It is also acting like we know the U.S. economy can grow smartly while Europe contracts in recession. Lastly, the high level of confidence exuded by market participants suggests we know central bank liquidity is endlessly supportive of equities.

What do we really know about the coming default of Greece? Whether we openly call it default or play semantic games with "voluntary haircuts," we know bondholders will absorb tremendous losses that are equivalent to default. We also suspect some bondholders will refuse to play nice and accept their voluntary haircuts. Beyond that, how much do we know about how this unprecedented situation will play out?
It may be a good time to unearth a famous statement about known knowns and unknown unknowns:

Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know we don't know. (Donald Rumsfeld)

Snippet:

If the CDS written against Greek debt are not allowed to execute, then that calls into question all CDS insurance written against Euro-based debt. After all, if the banking cartel and its Eurocrat lackeys can essentially negate CDS written against Greek debt, why wouldn't they do the same with CDS written against Portuguese, Irish, Spanish or Italian debt? And if they pull that off, why would anyone trust any CDS written against debt anywhere in the global system?
I have no idea what will happen in the next few months, but I think it is fair to say that what may be unleashed is a known unknown. To be supremely confident that a Greek default will be orderly is to claim knowledge of that which cannot be known.

That smacks of hubris.

As for the American economy expanding smartly while the rest of the global economy contracts--is there any precedent for this premise? Since there is no precendent for the financial crisis enveloping Europe (and it can be argued, China), then whether the U.S. can grow while the rest of the world slumps into recession is a known unknown.

Snippet:

What we do know about global central banks flooding the world with liquidity is that this inflates asset bubbles that always pop with devastating consequences. Since this is known, what is the basis for the confidence that global liquidity will drive equities ever higher without negative consequences? Is this a "liquidity driven rally" or a "blow-off top"? Perhaps the difference between the two is purely semantic.

Once again the risk of liquidity-inflated asset bubbles--oops, I mean "rallies"--is a known unknown.

But what about the unknown unknowns? Markets don't seem to be pricing in any of the known unknowns, i.e. the risk of disorderly default, much less the unknown unknowns.

Maybe the U.S. will expand without regard to Europe or China or Japan, and maybe the Eurocrats will successfully "firewall" the Greek collapse. (Never mind the cost to the non-Elite Greek people--what matters is getting all those politically powerful bondholders and hedge funds paid.)

It seems to me that there is ample evidence that the situation very likely holds unknown unknowns--but few seem to have priced that into the equities markets. It often seems like a financial soap opera is playing out on some distant stage, but the money being made and lost is real--if the players cash out of the game before the lights go out.

Source: Of Two Minds

fren.... i agree with u.... now the picture seem to be they likely default but they tend to slow the process so that financial market did not chock about that... maybe

From my point of view, if we will not see a good news related to EZ crisis next week , I think that we will see 1.28 as per the below Daily chart.

AM I RIGHT??