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  • #596,341
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:51pm Feb 16, 2012 10:51pm
Quoting Kowalczyk
Interesting theory, but in my experience, thinking like that always leads to failure. When I first started, I used to thing that the EUR/USD would do certain thing. For example, its going to stay in this range for 2 days, then it will break out to the upside after a NFP report. It will retrace so people go short and then there will be a quick but strong short squeeze. That type of thinking cost me a lot of pips.

The fact is, we do not always know why something is moving. We might not find out for a couple of days. The media (Bloomberg,...
Well said.
  • #596,342
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:52pm Feb 16, 2012 10:52pm
Quoting kibescorp
Risk is 100% on. Uptrend began its resumption today and will continue to do so well into next week.

Short at your own risk.

I agree with this... daily now looks like a three wave move to test obvious support after the five wave move up from the Jan low... Fundies are positive supporting.

All it will take is a scary news story of the Greek deal falling apart to collapse that picture, but for now.... I am looking for longs.
  • #596,343
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:53pm Feb 16, 2012 10:53pm
1.2986 was the best price I could get at the time when I started trading. See my chart from link below. PA touched the 50% Fib and held, PA was strong and a good demand level. My USD chart was weak. Other crosses were showing strength. The buzz on the street, media, big shot analyst, and grandma all crying short but EURO doesn't tank. Then, I'm bullish looking for buys. The final reason why the trade was right was because the market didn't hit my stop. Don't make trading that hard. Find what works for you, use good R/R, MM, S/R levels, and manage your trade.

Cheers

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post5393682

Quoting Fbps
On what technical basis do you buy at the dip 1.2986 'cos low can get lower right?
  • #596,344
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:56pm Feb 16, 2012 10:56pm
With or without Greece I do believe it's eventually going to come down. I think the fact that there is uncertainty is what's keeping it from falling. If you you just pull up a long term chart like the weekly or monthly you will see that we have been in a downtrend for a long time. One could me make the argument that we have been on a downtrend since 05/08 and even if that is a stretch for you for sure you can say that we have been in a downtrend since 05/11. It's also worth to point out that the 3319 level that was reached last week is appr. the 38 fib level. The reality is that in the bigger picture we are just in downtrend. This may not matter too much since we quite possible could go up some more and since most of us are day traders then we don't get too focused on the big picture. I just wanted to point that out since I just see too many people thinking we are somehow in a major bull market on eurusd.

Also yes usd is weak right now. It's very difficult however to get a good feel for things since there don't see too many neutral currencies. For example eurnzd just recently made a major low while eurusd was going up but nzd has been strong on it's own. Or eurjpy has been going up but jpy has been weak across the board so it's not that simple as to just say well the usd is weak. Better to just judge each pair on it's own merits and be done with it.
  • #596,345
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:56pm Feb 16, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting betteridea
So you are looking for a rejection of 1.3120 at 2am EST close?

Which market close at 2am? I think Japan is 1am .....

Thanks.
Sydney closes in a few minutes Tokyo closes in 2 hrs. Look at the bottom of the FF home page for market hours.
  • #596,346
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:57pm Feb 16, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting wannadoGrace
I'm in profit. SHORT. R U ??
I am short but not in profit, yet.
  • #596,347
  • Feb 16, 2012 10:59pm Feb 16, 2012 10:59pm
i don't know that i always long on top and short in bottom, it is very risk, anyone can tell me why that ? please !
Think Different
  • #596,348
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:00pm Feb 16, 2012 11:00pm
Quoting Crassius
I agree with this... daily now looks like a three wave move to test obvious support after the five wave move up from the Jan low... Fundies are positive supporting.

All it will take is a scary news story of the Greek deal falling apart to collapse that picture, but for now.... I am looking for longs.

Risk on.... or overdone ??
  • #596,349
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:01pm Feb 16, 2012 11:01pm
Quoting wannadoGrace
Good morning. I like looking at a chart more than a table. A table never made me money. A chart has.

That's just me.
Good ...

And what's your positions ?

Where you want to take a trade ?

What are you aiming for atm ?



;-|
2013-07-31 Today's Phrase of the Day: Hold off from any recycle bin experts
  • #596,350
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:02pm Feb 16, 2012 11:02pm
Quoting bfis108137
With or without Greece I do believe it's eventually going to come down. I think the fact that there is uncertainty is what's keeping it from falling. If you you just pull up a long term chart like the weekly or monthly you will see that we have been in a downtrend for a long time. One could me make the argument that we have been on a downtrend since 05/08 and even if that is a stretch for you for sure you can say that we have been in a downtrend since 05/11. It's also worth to point out that the 3319 level that was reached last week is appr....
There is a lot of money to made for a day trader trading longs and shorts within the long term down trend you speak of.
  • #596,351
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:03pm Feb 16, 2012 11:03pm
Quoting Tobinguyen
i don't know that i always long on top and short in bottom, it is very risk, anyone can tell me why that ? please !
Maybe you should not trade if the trend has already developed and the movement has already completed....
  • #596,352
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:03pm Feb 16, 2012 11:03pm
Quoting Z3iz3i
Nothing yet. Waiting hourly close and see if spike goes below 1.3120 and close above.
Closed below does that mean you are bearish.
Over thinking over analyzing separates the body from the mind.
  • #596,353
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:06pm Feb 16, 2012 11:06pm
Quoting Crassius
There is a lot of money to made for a day trader trading longs and shorts within the long term down trend you speak of.
Totally agree, there is no doubt the EURO is on a down trend on the weekly/Monthly chart.. But I doubt many people will actually enter the market and hold the position for a week or a month to take profit... That's more like a stock trading style.. lol
  • #596,354
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:06pm Feb 16, 2012 11:06pm
Quoting wannadoGrace
Risk on.... or overdone ??
For now on a daily chart perspective.... risk on.... subject to news flows changing the fundies that drove this rally yesterday.

direction without reference to time frame is a pretty useless concept. I use the daily time frame to judge the larger perspective and trade smaller during the day trying to catch about 1/3rd of a daily move.
  • #596,355
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:07pm Feb 16, 2012 11:07pm
Quoting Sehrawat
for me in your chart there is a fault because according to the rule fourth wave should not enter into the price territory of wave first so numbering is missing something
Anyway i see, that fourth penetration is still there...only that wave count made some sense....

What is your wave count.....how far you see this wave up last, and where is your down target.
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #596,356
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:08pm Feb 16, 2012 11:08pm
Quoting Tobinguyen
i don't know that i always long on top and short in bottom, it is very risk, anyone can tell me why that ? please !
Try this, don't buy when EUR/USD is in an uptrend or has recently risen alot and don't sell when EUR/USD is in a downtrend or has fallen alot. Find area's where the currency is likely to reverse and trade those areas. At first, play it safe. Wait for the currency to react and place your trade on the first retrace. This is how I started making money.
  • #596,357
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:08pm Feb 16, 2012 11:08pm
i can't see anything, it is standing, not any break out, a terrible day
Think Different
  • #596,358
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:09pm Feb 16, 2012 11:09pm
Just to say I don't listen to them anyway but two TV experts working as any lists for the big boys are two extremes. One says 1.37 end Q1 the says 1.25 end Q1. Surely if they are experts should there technical and fundamental analysis be on the same page or is it like this forum 50/50.
Over thinking over analyzing separates the body from the mind.
  • #596,359
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:12pm Feb 16, 2012 11:12pm
Quoting mercy seat
Good ...

And what's your positions ?

Where you want to take a trade ?

What are you aiming for atm ?



;-|
I'm presently short E/U and in profit. I'm not saying that will continue. but if it falls in the 1.3100 are then it's 1.3040/1.300

Currently, the chart DOES NOT say BUY but that may change. (hairy Friday)
Be prepared.
  • #596,360
  • Feb 16, 2012 11:12pm Feb 16, 2012 11:12pm
if someone flip a coin already, what is it ?
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