Sonic R. System

Market Comment:

USD pairs are either near their central pivot for the day, or they have already been pro-USD traded on towards the range limit for the day; not all the way there, but towards it.

The next USD high impact release is in 1.5 hours, and the London session is closed now. Trading activity has dropped off substantially. It could be that no matter this coming release, maybe the day is substantially over with. Tomorrow contains multiple USD high impact releases, so it is not a question of "if" more price movement, just "when".

Regards,
-tah

EU:

Trade #1 closed at TP1= 1.3055 for 46 pips gain EP to TP1. Trade #2 SL lowered to BE+13 pips.

Sonikers, since the last release on 07-16-2011 of TAH templates & indicators, I have been working off and on to come up with a template that would be much cleaner than all previous. This task has built from slow trial and error, to some breakthroughs, to more intensity, and is now in the "home stretch".

One area of improvement lies not in the appearance of the new template, but in the performance of the modified DST coding which cannot be tested until the next DST/non-DST changeover. Therefore I do not expect any release until sometime after then.

A very brief summary of improvements coming with the new template:

1. Chart Panel- Hopefully the new DST code will properly display vLines during the two week delay between NY changeovers and London changeovers. TzPivots are added back, this time with mid-pivots and Fibonacci pivots. Weekly range H/L markers added. Automatic line indenting.

2. Clock Panel- corrected market open/close times for Sydney and Tokyo. Automatically labels the time zones shown as being (L), (B), (GMT), any combination thereof.

3. FFCAL Headlines- minor adjustment of prioritization coding.

4. Solid Dragon-Trend- A new color filled Dragon for a chart less cluttered with lines! Includes selected ability to show Dragon/Trend of one TF on the chart of another TF.

5. Volume Climax Candles- Highlights "climax" candles, where the market is especially active.

6. Volume Climax Study- The volume histogram to go with the Volume Climax Candles indicator, making visual correlation simple.

A picture of the new template is shown below. Additional changes may occur before release. I have been asked about this template a number of times. All I can say is please be patient. When released, my hope is that this cleaner template will further help Sonikers keep focused on what matters; London session, Waves, Dragon, Trend, S&R and a bit of volume.

Thank you,
-tah

Hi TAH, another wonderful day thanks to your foresight.
You mentioned the E/U would likely drop some time in the morning. I tried to see what you were seeing by drawing two trendlines. The first was from yesterday's low at 1.30804 to the next Lower low at 1.31075(today). The next trendline was at the high of 1.31247 (yesterday), to 1.31896 (today).
None of these trendlines were broken and i felt PA could have gone either way.
Don't know how you knew but you are the man.

Market Comment:

FOMC Meeting Minutes released. Initial market reaction looks like more Pro-USD. We'll see how this progresses. Could still go either way.

GU:

Entered short trades (EP= 1.5680).

EU:

Trade #2 SL= 1.3088 hit, trade closed for 13 pips EP to SL.

EU (and market) Comment:

The market's whipsaw stopped out my second trade (but for profit, thanks to better SL management). This looks like a shakeout, like the market is craving liquidity for their shorting. So, they are creating that liquidity.

1. Running prices to stop out right side trades (shorts in the case of EU), and this increases market liquidity. The market can now add more shorts of it's own.

2. Hitting prices of pending wrong side trade orders (longs in the case of EU), forcing execution into the market. This also adds market liquidity. The market now has the opportunity to take the other side of those wrong side orders, more shorts of it's own.

So, in conclusion, the market still looks pro-USD. And if this is correct (all this is speculative), then the market might actually be becoming extremely pro-USD; just not wanting to reveal it.

WARNING: Very Speculative.

Master Sonicdeejay is far more "the man" than am I.

I did not know. As Nando Rich eloquently says, "No one can know!"

When I talk about the market in such manner, it is speculative. I get my clues from price action and volume action, combined. And also from a bit of psycology, the psycology of the market's greed and deceptions. Sometimes conclusions drawn turn out to be correct. Sometimes not.

I think the thing to keep in mind is what Nando Rich has said. And as soon as we start to believe we do know where the market is going to take prices, that is when we just shot ourselves in the head!

The purpose of such market talk, about price activity clues and volume clues from the chart, is that if later there is a SonicR setup in a confirming direction, then there is reason to have more confidence in the trade. That's all. The bottom line is, regardless of anything and everything else, we need to keep our focus on the key elements of the Sonic R. System trade: London session, Waves, Dragon, Trend, S&R and a bit of volume.

-tah

AU:

Manually closed both trades #1 and #2 for 43x2= 86 pips EP= 1.0728 to close= 1.0685.

My thinking is that because there is are two AUD high impact releases in less than an hour.....
1. if the market anticipates they are bad the market might push the price up beforehand, and then push the price back down afterwards, or hold the price up until the USD releases.
2. if the market anticipates the AUD releases to be good then it might do the same, but just wait until after the AUD releases to start the price push up.
3. If the market doesn't really care one way or the other it might push up the price anyway because it is a way to make profits whether the AUD releases are good, bad or otherwise, and get the price higher again before the coming USD high impact releases.

If the price resumes dropping without first being pushed up, I can probably find a re-entry.

kudos to tah & sonicdeejay for the effort & time in guiding us on the sys!

hey guys haven't stopped in here for a while have been trading elsewhere =).

I'll be looking to sell gbpusd and eurusd today as well as buy usdchf. see ya in the london session!

also look forward to that new template TAH looks great

AU:

Entered short (1.0685). This is where I closed the previous two trades. Now on again, via new larger wave. Not the London session though, so the FO/LO/(and everyone else) might decide to push it up again; their own liquidity creation maneuvers for additional shorting.

AU (and market) Comment:

You can see when the AUD releases hit how the market pushed up the price, fast and inexpensively. Then the market engaged in very heavy trading at the top. And, naturally, eventually all that shorting took hold and the price dropped again. So, the AUD high impact releases were indeed high impact, but not due to content. Rather, as is so often the fare, the market uses these events as "excuses" to push price either way they want to (often both ways!), based upon whatever their profit making strategy is.

Regarding the AUD high impact releases, employment went up, unemployment went down. What did the market do with this good news? The market whipped the price up! Not because the market gave a damn about the good new, but because the market saw the opportunity to pump the price, and then short the hell out of it! Geez, if the market took the price up because they gave a damn about the good news, the price would still be up!

This is a prime example of why not to trade the "news". Sometimes the market pushes prices logically with the news, and sometimes not. We cannot reliably depend on the market to cease being greedy and deceiving and pushing prices according to it's own designs rather than "news content".

This serves as an example of something else, too. Many seek to trade news because they feel a big move coming, and don't want to miss out on pips. So many times however, a few days later, or a few sessions later, or even a few hours later, the price will be right back where it was. And the reverse move, and subsequent moves, are far less stressful to trade and can be more than equally profitable!

WARNING: Speculative.

Regards,
-tah

i am a newbie, many thanks to master TAH, always there to help me

I caught +50 pips on GBP/USD and +45 pips on AUD/USD last night. It could have been more but I set a very conservative TP. I would like to post my charts soon but currently I'm still using the Roadmap template from a long time back and it is a very messy chart.

Anyone liking the setup on the EUR/JPY? I'm long.

I do not see the setup there. Please attach the chart screen to show what do you mean.

Regards,
ad4x.

...where are you long from?..not too bad a setup i guess, not in it myself.

imho, a long setup above 89 ema will b more precise. correct me, tah if i am wrong.