EurAnalysis

wow,great to know that.any position so far buddy

I posted these comments at 1:30 AM this morning...

Patterns, Behaviour And Spin Or News...
Before I go back to bed for a few hours of sleep here are my personal views after having posted some interesting links and observed Market Action in EUR/USD since 9:00 PM EST...

From the Low near 9:00 PM EST of 1.31075 it has risen to a High of 1.31864 and now is at 1.3174.

This has happened because of News out of China around 9:00 PM EST and the weakness after Intervention in USD/JPY. EUR/JPY has risen in turn to 1.0338 from 1.02859 bringing up EUR/USD with it. USD/JPY trades at 78.47 now.

My Test will be Round Number Resistance at 1.3200 and Next is Resistance at 1.3223.

I will see the News out of Europe and Money Flow once Europe opens at 3:00 AM EST...

I will watch the Dow Futures and Patterns between 2:00 AM EST and 3:00 AM EST...

News out of Greece might move things or not. The situation is very unstable with Risk On and Risk Off...

Trade Careful or stand aside until a direction becomes more clear. Good Morning All.

Kno's New Comments:

By 2:20 AM EUR/USD hit the new High at 1.3192 still not breaking through resistance at 1.3200.

By 3:30 AM with Europe markets open for 30 minutes it moved back down to 1.3155 which shows weakness to me at this point. Then by 4:30 AM it spiked back to 1.3182 and and after that more weakness by going back to 1.3150 and that with Risk On based on the Dow Futures up now 65 and Gold up to $1,725 US Spot.

The Issue of Greece is the cause of this weakness. Now I watch how the North America Retail Trade will move things around starting at 6:00 AM...

Off for breakfast and back at 7:00 AM

The FOMC releases information at 2:00 PM and there is Important US Data at 8:30 AM and 9:00 AM (NAHB) and 10:00 AM EST.

There is another one for the bulls in here ...
Especially interesting for those who are still long from around 1.31 ...

As TMPX shows still rangebound environment it would be not to optimistic to:

Buy around 3040 (blue dotted trendline)
SL should be 30-40 Pips

Take position size smaller than normal.

Target1: 1.3200
target2: 1.3230 or more if you are notorius bull

Signal expires with the start of US session!

Stop @ even after 20 to 30 pips profit

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/7536/10923476.jpg

I came across this article a few minutes ago and it sets up the background for what I have to say.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...-for-the-world

The point of the article is that there is a problem and ignoring it puts you at a disadvantage as a trader. Here is a Snippet to make the point that I want to make.

Any financial system that is based on debt is doomed to fail. Today, we are living in the greatest debt bubble that the world has ever seen, and if all of a sudden people could not use credit to buy things our economy would immediately ground to a halt. Unfortunately, no debt bubble can last forever. When this current debt bubble finally bursts, faith in the financial system is going to disappear, credit is going to freeze up and there is going to be a massive wave of bank failures. Right now, Greece is a warning sign for the world. Nobody wants to lend money to Greece, the Greek banking system is dying, one out of every four businesses has already shut down, unemployment is soaring and the Greek economy has now been in recession for five years in a row. Sadly, the economic implosion in Greece is rapidly accelerating. The Greek economy shrunk at a 7 percent annual rate during the 4th quarter of 2011. That wasn't supposed to happen. Things were supposed to be getting better in Greece by now. But instead the Greek depression is getting even worse, and very soon the rest of the world is going to be going through what Greece is currently experiencing.

Unfortunately, most in the mainstream media are treating what is happening in Greece as an "isolated incident" rather than as a very serious warning sign for the world.

Kno's Comments: As a fundamental trader I need to know what really is going on not what they want me to know. They being the mainstream press and news sources.

Now onto another article from someone I recently got to meet through a mutual friend that really makes the point independently from my views.

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/blog/...-own-risk.html

Snippet:

Evan Esar, a mid 20th century humorist, defined statistics as being "The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures". He'd have to change that quote if he were still alive today when it comes to government statistics. Government statistics are the science of producing unreliable facts from unreliable figures.

Not only are the conclusions they reach from the data completely at odds from reality but the data itself is so contorted that Cirque de Soleil should be jealous.

In the Disgraceful State of the Union address, Barack O'Bomber stated, "In the last 22 months, businesses have created more than three million jobs. Last year, they created the most jobs since 2005."

And the US Government's unemployment statistic looks to have backed off from near 10% to what is now proclaimed to be 8.3%.

http://www.dollarvigilante.com/stora...=1329264574854

What Is Ahead Of Us - Keep Eyes Open
Wednesday, Feb 15th

00:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report

01:30 EUR French Prelim GDP

02:00 EUR German Prelim GDP

04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change; Unemployment Rate

05:00 EUR Flash GDP

05:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations

05:30 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks; BOE Inflation Report

08:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

09:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases

09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate; Industrial Production

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

19:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations

19:30 AUD Employment Change; Unemployment Rate

The numbers at 9:00 AM are important since they show the flow of funds into the USA and out...

The minutes at 2:00 PM from the FED might offer some clues however not very likely since it is clear what they have in mind.

Now to the numbers for today.

For the moment it is Risk ON except for EUR/USD in my opinion. Over 1.3235 I will change my short short term view technically.

Dow Futures Up 72 ... Gold Up $10 US at $1,728 US...

Europe is ALL Positive for the moment as to the Equities... The Yield on the 2 Year US Bonds are .29% and the 10 Year US Bond Yields is 1.95% at the moment with the spread 166 Basis Points.

EUR/USD trades at 1.3158 with EUR/JPY at 1.0330...

USD/JPY is at 78.50 and US Dollar Index is 79.265

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...X&t=&a=&w=&v=s

That sets up the Goalposts for this morning...

While on the subject of silver...here's the Year-to-Date Performance for all commodities. It's provided by the good folks over at the finviz.com website. There are no surprises here.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...ce-469x369.jpg
(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's one more chart. This was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A. yesterday.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit...ce-470x314.png

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/home

Before heading into the stories I have for you today, here's the chart of the U.S. M3 money supply updated as of Friday's close. It's a pretty sick looking puppy...and if this continues for any length of time, we'll see the Fed begin QE3 pretty quick, as deflation is not on their play list. I thank Nick Laird for sending it to me.

http://www.caseyresearch.com/gsd/sit..._0-469x354.gif

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_427945

Snippet:

Italian PM, Merkel to discuss Greece on Friday

Ahead of talks in Rome, Monti says he believes Athens has made some progresshttp://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif

http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...i_390_0302.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Greece’s debt crisis is expected to be high on the agenda of talks at a scheduled meeting between Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Rome on Friday.
Speaking to Italian television on Tuesday night, Monti said that he was in favor of solutions that will ensure the sustainability of Greek debt. As for the decision by Eurogroup Chief Jean-Claude Juncker to postpone a scheduled summit in Brussels on Wednesday and hold a teleconference call with eurozone ministers instead, Monti said that this demonstrated Juncker’s sense that the required political consensus for the terms of a new debt deal has yet to be reached in Greece. The Italian premier added, however, that he felt Greece had taken significant steps toward fiscal adjustment. He said he did not believe that social unrest of the type seen in Greece would manifest itself in Italy as “the situation is different.”

From Larry Levin - Thanks...

Prison

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/prison-bars.jpg



On the heels of another MASSIVE European continent sovereign downgrade, plus the promise of UK & French downgrades, the market was saved again with a rumor. It wasn’t just any rumor though, but the same old nonsensical Greek bailout rumor that never seems to grow old. With only a few minutes left in the day, the usual rumor was released to the usual financial outlets, before the close, that resulted in the usual change from a down day to a positive close.

Isn’t it odd that the bad news like MASSIVE SOVEREIGN DOWNGRADES are always released when the market is closed; however, good news is always released during the trading day? If I wasn’t so jaded from so many obviously and bullishly rigged maneuvers by politicians and central banksters to achieve their preconceived outcomes, I’d say this was a freak occurrence. From experience, however, one must conclude that the timing of these things is completely controlled by the “powers that be” (read: Fed, Treasury, ECB, IMF, BOE, World Bank, BOJ, etc, etc). Any thoughts to the contrary show ones acute naiveté.

Of course there are others who share this frustration and not just in the USSA. Another voice of reason comes from Godfrey Bloom of the UK Independence Party who excoriates the EU with, among other things, “The day must surely come when politicians, bureaucrats, and central bankers must be called to account by a fiscal crimes tribunal and sent to prison for a VERY LONG TIME!”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5NuHOXWlgM&feature=player_embedded

Sadly, there isn’t a single sorry politician (other than Ron Paul) or so-called financial journalist that will stand up and say the same. No sir, in the USSA it’s all about “Go along to get along.” After all, the slimy politicians need their palms greased and the so-called financial journalists need advertising dollars.


Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

The Charts Show That Very Clearly and NOW the RUMOR !!!

Rumors Germany Reckons Greek Default Unavoidable Are False - Merkel Spokeman...

That of course means it is true so now we wait for Monday for the Hammer To Fall...

looking like the euro wants to test 1.3080s pretty soon....daily road map for today's scalps...invite only: http://bit.ly/wUYesZ

Enjoy Your Stay Here. You found the best thread on Forex Factory.

EUR/USD at 1.3083 and EUR/JPY at 1.0267 and US Bond Yields on 10 Year US Bonds moved to 1.93% as money went into the 10 Years and probably out of the Euro.

Wednesday, February 15, 2012 8:14:32 AM
8:14 AM The euro takes a powder as German finmin Schauble hits the tape saying the necessary documents from Greece are not present. This despite Greece's Samaras' "tail between his legs" pledge to abide by the terms of the bailout agreement. Euro -0.1% to $1.3119.

By Yigal Grayeff and the Market Currents team
P&G to sell Pringles to Kellogg for $2.7B. Procter & Gamble (PG) has said it has agreed to divest Pringles to Kellogg (K) for $2.7B, with Diamond Foods (DMND) announcing that it has ended its attempt to purchase the snack-food unit.
Italy sinks into recession, eurozone contracts. Italy entered recession in Q4 as GDP dropped a quarterly 0.7%, adding to a fall of 0.2% in Q3. The eurozone shrank 0.3% in Q4, its first contraction since Q2 2009, although it was a smaller pullback than had been expected. Germany's economy shrank as well, although France provided some cheer by unexpectedly growing 0.2%.
Cook fuels hopes of Apple dividend. Tim Cook has added fuel to rising hopes that Apple (AAPL) will pay a dividend by saying that the company's board is discussing what it should do with its giant cash pile, which is probably over $100B at this point. Cook also hinted at the possibility of an Apple TV, and suggested the iPhone's "halo effect" has been boosting iPad sales.
Greek party chief bows to EU demands over bailout. Antonis Samaras, the favorite to be Greece's next PM after a vote in April, will today send a letter to the EU pledging to abide by the country's bailout terms, Reuters reports. Samaras' pronouncements that he'd try to renegotiate if elected caused EU finance ministers to cancel a meeting for today, but they will speak by phone and are due to meet on Monday. Meanwhile, discontent among Greece's private creditors to the proposed bond swap is growing, with some possibly open to court action to fight it.
Fed OKs Capital One's purchase of ING ops. The Fed has approved Capital One's (COF) plan to acquire ING's (ING) U.S. online banking unit, but in a nod to criticism the deal would create the next too-big-to-fail banking giant, COF has been ordered to ensure that its risk management and compliance structure keep up with its growth and the complexity of the firm.
Zynga tops forecasts but makes $435M net loss. Zynga's (ZNGA) shares were -8% premarket despite the social gaming company beating Q4 earnings forecasts with adjusted EPS of $0.05 and revenues that jumped 59% to $311.2M. However, Zynga swung to a net loss of $435M from a profit of $42M, due to a $510M expense related to stock-based compensation. Zynga's user base increased, as did the number of users paying for virtual goods, but R&D costs also skyed nine-fold as the company developed more games.
Shareholders sue Illumina over Roche bid. Shareholders have filed a class action suit against Illumina (ILMN), alleging its directors adopted a poison pill plan against a takeover by Roche (RHHBY.PK) based on bad advice from Goldman Sachs. Illumina had "inexplicably chosen to receive" the advice despite Goldman's financial conflict of interest.
Libor probe finds collusion between firms. The Libor investigation by global regulators has exposed flaws in banks' internal controls that may have allowed traders to manipulate interest rates around the world, Bloomberg reports, with the probe also finding email evidence of potential Libor collusion between firms. Banks may face civil fines as a result, although probably not this year. There has been no move toward criminal charges.
Major investors increase tech positions. Some of the world's biggest investors boosted their technology holdings during Q4, with Warren Buffett adding to positions in Intel (INTC) and IBM (IBM), and George Soros increasing his stakes in Google (GOOG) and Yahoo (YHOO). Other heavyweights such as David Tepper and David Einhorn piled into Apple (AAPL). One exception was John Paulson, who, after a string of heavy losses, liquidated his losing position in H-P (HPQ).
Deal agreed to extend payroll tax cut. A bipartisan negotiating panel is today expected to sign a deal to extend the payroll tax cut through this year, clearing the way for the House to vote on the measure, possibly this week. Democrats and Republicans have also agreed to cut the maximum number of weeks to collect unemployment benefits from 99 to 73 by the end of 2012.
Analysts exclude Apple from their calculations. Apple's (AAPL) gargantuan size has prompted some analysts to analyze overall corporate earnings while excluding the tech giant's impact. Earlier this month, for example, UBS noted that for the companies in the S&P 500, earnings were on track for a 6.6% year-on-year gain in Q4. Factor out Apple's earnings, and the number drops down to just 2.8%.

Today's Markets:
In Asia, Japan +2.3% to 9260. Hong Kong +2.1% to 21365. China +0.9% to 2367. India +2.0% to 18202.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +1.1%. Frankfurt +1.2%.
Futures at 7:00: Dow +0.5%. S&P +0.5%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude +0.8% to $101.58. Gold +0.65% to $1728.90.

Wednesday's economic calendar:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
9:00 International Capital Flow
9:15 Industrial Production
9:15 Fed's Fisher: 'Overview of Fed Operations and the Texas Economy'
10:00 Hearing: President’s Budget for FY 2013 (Geithner)
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC minutes

That one was flushed away like paper in the toilet ...

EDIT ... would not be too optimistic with longs before 3020 is reached

Futures market is slightly "risk on" this morning. What concerns me is money still piling into the Swiss Franc which is risk off.




As far as the EURUSD pair..... I have no clue what this thing is going to do. I loaded up the chart with indicators so it makes the main chart skinny so it shouldn't move too far





OK, enough of that BS

Daily and 4 hr both in demand zones but the momentum has turned down on both TFs Apparently the market doesn't like the Greek conservitive party talking about possible " modifications" to implement the plan

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_427906

Snippet:

Venizelos tells President that Athens must convince peers it belongs in euro clubhttp://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif

http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_1212.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told President Karolos Papoulias on Wednesday that there were growing calls for Greece to exit the eurozone and stressed that Athens must convince its peers that it belongs in the single currency zone.
"There are lots of people in the eurozone who no longer want us in. We have to convince them that we can stay in the euro zone, that we can regain the ground we have lost,» Venizelos told Papoulias.

The minister added that the country was “on the razor’s edge” and that attempts to finalize the details of the new debt program “were proving to be very difficult as there as there are some people in Greece and abroad are playing with fire,» the minister continued, without elaborating. «Some have matches, others have torches,» he added.
He referred to a “tragic dilemma.» “Unfortunately the dilemma is sacrifices or economic disaster which would drag down society and probably our institutions and the level of our democracy.”

According to sources, Venizelos was invited by the president who asked to be briefed following the inability of the government to offer eurozone officials the guarantees they had demanded in time for a Eurogroup summit which had been scheduled for Wednesday. Instead eurozone finance ministers are to hold a teleconference call to discuss «outstanding issues."

The eurozone officials had demanded details on how Athens plans to cover a 325-million-euro savings shortfall and political guarantees from party leaders.

A proposal by the government to cover the shortfall with cuts to defense spending, public investment funds and the health sector was reportedly not accepted by creditor nations. Some reports indicated last night that supplemental and main pensions might be cut to make up some of the shortfall. Venizelos did not specify in his comments to Papoulias that pension cuts were on the cards but his references to the need for sacrifices indicated that authorities were likey to impose further austerity measures.
As for the political guarantees demanded, Socialist PASOK leader and former premier George Papandreou reportedly sent his letter late on Tuesday while the head of conservative New Democracy was expected to send his on Wednesday.
ekathimerini.com , Wednesday February 15, 2012 (13:08)

Get ready for another week of rangebound indecision.

From Marketwatch

"A meeting between the euro-zone finance ministers to approve a second bailout package for Greece was scheduled to take place Wednesday, but was called off amid worries over the country’s ability to implement austerity measures. A conference call for Wednesday was organized instead, but bailout announcements are not expected until the group meets Monday next week. "

Keep eyes on that D area now, it is important how it will react in there now.

H4:

500 billion. Lets see how GB and US react.

Euro will surely rise.