EurAnalysis

here guys, i did this trade for you No1 is an ib and almost a pin bar too. No2 was an aggressive entry and No3 was a normal entry. i picked up over 50 pips. i have done quite a few of these today but used bigger pip price

oops forgot here are my 2 trades

Euro has broken daily trendline and paves the way for 1.30 where we've a confluence of support found with the 50sma and 23.6 fibo line adding to this dollar index has broken the 61.8% fibo line and yesterday broke and held the trendline paving the way for a long set up until the 50sma..

Every ounce of me says to wait for 1.34 but we may not get there so I guess I'll short the euro and go long dollar index

Here is one for those who are still bullish ...

Technical support just below, Channel Low was respected on the hourly. TPMX neither showing much buying, nor much selling (indicating rangebound environment)

Buy 3095 with tight stop (20-30 Pips)

1. Target: 3165 (7.February European Session High)
2. Target (for those who are real bulls) 3215 (Todays High) or more ...

Dont forget to move your stop to B/E when catched 20-30 Pips.

Setup expires when hourly closes above 3127 or at start of next European Session.

Hope the moderation queue delivers before setup is triggered

Enjoy

http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/9985/29336864.jpg

Nice work Chaot. Beautiful setup and great technical rationale.

One of the guidelines regarding the issuance of vouchers on Forex Factory is that a poster should accumulate at least 200 posts before being vouched.
However, based on what I have seen so far, you have certainly earned one from me. So I shall follow GoferPip's lead. Congrats

your a brave guy chaot, i hope your pips come in

Long eu , sl BE

I am shorting EU, but do not want to get blistered with a long, so when market switches, I short USDCHF as this functions as long.

As she gets to spot for another short on EU, I enter and close my USDCHF short. I am using this strategy right now with good success locking up 164 pips today going both ways.
I am presently in profit on USDCHF and will wait for Tokyo or London session to possibly set up a short on EU later.

If Samaras signs the Greek austerity pledge tomorrow and Schauble refrains from saying anything stupid, we may see 1.32 again tomorrow. So if it were me, I would be very cautious with entries before tomorrow because a comment or two could catch the whole market off guard. So my advice is to keep your finger on the pulse of the news starting with pre-european trade.
Loads of green pips to you Brother G

Really?!

I only have my short USDCHF open, I already took my profits on EU short.
I will watch the market and lock up profits.....or take my losses on the USDCHF as needed and most definitely keep my ears on the road listening to funnymentals to catch any enemy sneaking up on me.

Hope your Valentine appreciated you efforts!

I saw you've been testing a few longs on the EU....you sly dog!
Just keep the hammer ready cause this thing is far from over!

May all green pips up and down grace your account!

Thanks Trapper!

Trade worked out nicely so far ... though i didnt expect it to move 15 pips against me. scared me a bit ...

Stop is at break even. wont cry if target 1 is not reached ... if anyone followed the trade: you may exit here if you dont feel comfortable with it (or feel the need to sleep if you are european) ...

Good Night!

i also do hope so ... i will go to bed now ... handing my valentines darling over to the asians ... hope they take care of her ... good night

thanks for warm welcoming me knoholy!

looks like i can learn from you ...as i am keen do dive deeper into fundamentals ...

I love South Park... Thanks for the Laugh !!!

I gave you a voucher and I will be glad to share my knowledge on fundamentals and monewy flow with you. Good Evening !!!

i just realised i am still logged in. CHAOT i wasn't being disrespectful with my your brave comment. the long was o
always on the cards but i thought your stop loss was a bit low. if i had to trade it i would of let it drop a bit more then buy lol. the daily was bouncing on the 21 ema ( not that i trade that sort of thing) so you did good. good trading

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_427875

Snippet:

Summit postponed as gov't delays in providing details on budget cuts, political guaranteeshttp://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif

http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...b_390_1402.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif A scheduled summit of eurozone finance ministers on Wednesday, where a second debt deal for Greece had been widely expected to be rubberstamped, was canceled late on Tuesday as Greek government officials delayed in providing explanations about budget savings and political guarantees demanded by creditor states.

Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker called off the meeting, noting that European Union officials had yet to receive details from Athens about how a 325-million -euro shortfall in savings -- arising from Greek politicians’ insistence on limited cuts to auxiliary pensions - would be covered.

Juncker added that he had not received “the required political assurances” from Greek political leaders. He said the eurozone ministers would instead have a teleconference on Wednesday “in order to discuss the outstanding issues” ahead of the next scheduled Eurogroup summit next Monday.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos remained locked in a cabinet meeting until late on Tuesday, seeking to plug the shortfall to savings and to obtain the guarantees sought by creditor states.

Sources indicated that Socialist leader and former prime minister George Papandreou had provided Papademos from a written statement of his commitment to the terms of a debt deal voted through Parliament early on Monday but was still waiting for a letter from conservative New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras.

The cabinet reportedly examined a proposal for the 325-million-euro shortfall to be covered from cuts to defense spending, public investment funds and the health sector. According to sources however, this proposal was rejected by Euro Working Group -- low-level EU finance ministry officials who were meeting in Brussels on Tuesday. The sources said that the EU officials insisted that the additional savings should come from cuts to pensions.

Some reports indicated last night that supplemental and main pensions might be cut to make up some of the shortfall.

The government has already agreed to 300 million euros worth of cuts to supplemental pensions. The Cabinet reportedly agreed that a third of the sum would come from cuts to relatively genereous state pensions given to employees of state enterprises such as the Public Power Corporation and OTEtelecom while two thirds would come from additional cuts to supplemental pensions.
Despite the obstacles, Papademos earlier on Wednesday sought to be positive, telling his ministers that Parliament's approval of the country's new debt deal with its foreign creditors was «a decisive step» toward securing crucial rescue funding but that more was needed. «Many crucial steps need to be taken over the coming days and weeks until the final decision is taken regarding the release of rescue funding at the beginning of March,» he said. He called on his ministers to start working «hard and systematically» in order to complete the «prior actions» demanded by foreign creditors, a reference to a range of budget cuts and reforms.
Papademos added that Transport Minister Makis Voridis, who resigned last week, would be staying on, dousing media speculation about a possible cabinet reshuffle.
ekathimerini.com , Tuesday February 14, 2012 (23:06)

Wednesday, Feb 15th

00:00 JPY BOJ Monthly Report

01:30 EUR French Prelim GDP

02:00 EUR German Prelim GDP

04:30 GBP Claimant Count Change; Unemployment Rate

05:00 EUR Flash GDP

05:00 CHF ZEW Economic Expectations

05:30 GBP BOE Gov King Speaks; BOE Inflation Report

08:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index

09:00 USD TIC Long-Term Purchases

09:15 USD Capacity Utilization Rate; Industrial Production

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories

14:00 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

19:00 AUD MI Inflation Expectations

19:30 AUD Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
Thursday, Feb 16th

04:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin

08:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases; Manufacturing Sales

08:30 USD Building Permits; PPI; Unemployment Claims; Core PPI; Housing Starts

09:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

10:00 USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index; Mortgage Delinquencies

10:30 USD Natural Gas Storage

18:00 NZD RBNZ Gov Bollard Speaks

18:50 JPY BOJ January Policy Meeting Minutes
Friday, Feb 17th

02:00 EUR German PPI

04:00 EUR Current Account

04:30 GBP Retail Sales

07:00 CAD Core CPI; CPI

08:30 CAD Leading Index

08:30 USD Core CPI; CPI

No Link In My Email...

Some Snippets:



February 14, 2012
A Huge Change Has Begun: The Triumvirate of Wall Street/ The Fed/ and the White House is Beginning to Crumble

The Obama administration, as it pursues re-election in 2012, is doing all it can to claim that the US economy is in fact not quite as bad as previously thought. One of the tactics is to massage GDP and jobs data. True, this practice has been in place for over a decade, but the recent January jobs report from the BLS has set, shall we say, a new high-water mark for "adjustments."

According to the BLS, we ADDED 243,00 jobs that month. That's an odd claim given that the BLS admits, in the very same report, that without adjustments, the US actually LOST 2.69 MILLION jobs in January
This is roughly a discrepancy of 3 MILLION jobs. And this 243,000 jobs number for January also comes along with revisions that saw roughly 50,000 jobs added in both October and November.

So according to the BLS, the US is on the upswing again, maybe not in a HUGE way, but overall things are improving : we're adding jobs and unemployment is falling (from 8.5% to 8.3%).

These numbers make the Obama administration look good, at least relative to how it's looked in the previous 12 months. However, they're not reflecting as positively on two of Obama's primary support groups: Wall Street and the US Federal Reserve.

As a brief refresher, let's take a look at Obama's top campaign contributors in 2008:

https://phoenixcapital.infusionsoft....nload?Id=31297
Altogether, the finance industry ponied up $24 million for Obama in 2008. And Wall Street has not only been cutting their growth forecasts but has actually been firing people based on the fact the economy is so rough.
N.Y. faces 10,000 Wall St. cuts through 2012
(From October 2011)

Bank of America Corp. plans to cut 30,000 jobs over the next few years, while UBS AG intends to shave 3,500 jobs and Goldman Sachs Group expects to eliminate 1,000 jobs.

As for the forecasting component:
Wall Street banks curb economic growth forecasts
(From January 2012)
Wall Street banks lowered their outlook for U.S. economic growth due to concerns over the European debt crisis, oil prices, regulatory uncertainties and "continued disarray in Washington," according to a financial industry survey released on Tuesday.
The survey, which included bankers from Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities and Citigroup, forecast that the U.S. economy will grow at a rate of 2.2 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 3.1 percent.

The January jobs report not only makes these guys look like they can't forecast anything... but that they don't even know how to run their own businesses. It also adds to the image that they're heartless and will lay people off to maintain profits (if the economy is improving, why are they firing people?)

This is not exactly the best policy to maintain for constituents who have put up some big money for Obama's campaigns in the past. One wonders if Obama's campaign managers considered this.

The January jobs report also reflects poorly on the White House's monetary buddy, the Obama's administration's "go to" guy for any kind of uptick in economic data: Ben Bernanke. After all, the Fed has also been cutting its growth forecasts and expecting higher unemployment.

US Fed cuts growth forecasts for 2012
(From November 2011)
The Federal Reserve said it now expects US growth to be weaker and unemployment higher than it thought in its last set of forecasts, as the central bank left the door open to fresh measures to help the world's biggest economy.

Also...

Fed foresees weak US growth through 2014
(From January 2012)
The Federal Reserve cut its US growth forecast Wednesday and said that with business investment and the housing sector depressed, it expected to keep interest rates near zero for another three years
Despite an upturn late last year, the Fed said ongoing economic weaknesses and strains in global financial markets mandated continued easy-money policies...

"I don't think we're ready to declare that we have entered a strong phase at this point.

So add the Fed to the group of people Obama's jobs report leaves looking less than on top of things. On a side note, it also makes the likelihood of more QE or monetary easing from the Fed more remote (if the economy is improving, they have no reason to announce more policies... which is not positive for asset prices... or Wall Street).

This all returns to two primary themes I've been expounding on for months now: that the political environment has changed dramatically in the US and that we are going to see escalating tension between Wall Street, the Fed, and the White House.

The reason for this is simple: the public is growing more outraged by the minute. That anger will have to be directed somewhere. And when push comes to shove, it's likely we're going to see some actual real litigation relating to what happened in 2008-2009.

When this happens, the whole Fed/ Wall Street/ Politiciantriumvirate willbegin to change dramatically. Some of these groups will try to portray themselves as "men of the people" (Obama is doing this, and so is the Fed with its recent town-hall meetings and Bernanke's efforts to appear like a average joe who reads his kindle). Others will prepare for battle (Goldman Sachs' CEO has hired a defense attorney).

How this will all playout remains to be seen. But the debt markets are going to speed this process up dramatically as Europe implodes and the great debt implosion comes to the US. With 48% of US citizens living in a house in which at least one person receives Government aid, you can imagine the impact that the sort of large cuts in social welfare programs that a debt restructuring in the US would have on the political process in here.

My assessment, this January jobs report is the tip of the iceberg. Tensions will be rising in the US over the next 12 months. How exactly this will play out remains to be seen (there are too many factors), but changes are coming to the political arena as well as the monetary balance between Wall Street and the Fed (remember, the Fed actually sued Goldman Sachs last year).


Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist

By Yigal Grayeff and the Market Currents team
Moody's warns on U.K.'s AAA rating. Moody's yesterday cut the outlooks for the U.K., France and Austria to negative, though each country is maintaining its AAA rating for now. The agency also downgraded Spain by two notches, and Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Malta by one notch. However, where once such a move would have caused panic, EU stocks shrugged a little today before moving higher.
Greek bailout not yet a shoo-in. Although Greece approved further austerity on Sunday, key elements of the country's bailout are still to be decided, including the contribution of eurozone governments to reducing Greece's debt. The EU also wants the nation to find an extra €325M ($429M) of budget cuts and further assurances from party leaders about the austerity package. The demands give credence to those who believe the EU is trying to force Greece out the euro, especially with Q4 GDP plumetting 7%.