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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,161
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:08pm Feb 12, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting mohan76
there is no other reason for this slow and steady bull
wait 2 month japan will say we have spend x amount of yen on feb. intervention
The steady price movement up in the U/J has been reflected in Gold , which suggest natural USD strength. Looking at my U/J charts , there is nothing to suggest that the U/J is on any sort of uptrend, but rather ranging between 78.20 and 76.50 as it has been doing since November after the intervention, it made an attempt at 76 after Bernanke's dovish statement, and is now going through a correction ,back into range ,until the market gets a better insight on whether the US will pursue with QE3 or place it on hold.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #30,162
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:09pm Feb 12, 2012 7:09pm
Quoting FXMindset
Try other name beside soros and warren,To Public their name

hehehe..... i mention their name bcoz... both of them analyze in all aspect before take a decision....huhuhhu..thats all
Bismillah
  • #30,163
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:29pm Feb 12, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting Fidza
The steady price movement up in the U/J has been reflected in Gold , which suggest natural USD strength. Looking at my U/J charts , there is nothing to suggest that the U/J is on any sort of uptrend, but rather ranging between 78.20 and 76.50 as it has been doing since November after the intervention, it made an attempt at 76 after Bernanke's dovish statement, and is now going through a correction ,back into range ,until the market gets a better insight on whether the US will pursue with QE3 or place it on hold.
Taking time to flaten those longer term Moving averages 200/100 SMA. The 100 is already flat. So I do not rule out any outcome for this mkt.
  • #30,164
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:52pm Feb 12, 2012 7:52pm
Quoting hornsant
Taking time to flaten those longer term Moving averages 200/100 SMA. The 100 is already flat. So I do not rule out any outcome for this mkt.
I am not giving too much faith to technicals for this pair, sticking with fundamentals , price will encounter heavy downward resistance as it gets closer to 76 ,due to the intervention factor and the staggering ratio of speculator longs (over 90% at one point)in anticipation of the BoJ stepping in at levels below this. Upward movement can only be determined if the pair makes a clear break above 78.20 and the Fed eases up on QE3,however the further up the price moves, the greater the easing in net long positions(its currently at 65:35 from 90:10 150 pips and a week ago).With the level of uncertainty we are being faced with presently ,I would think it should continue to range between 78.20 and 76.50, until clearer insight from Fed.
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #30,165
  • Feb 12, 2012 7:58pm Feb 12, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting Fidza
The steady price movement up in the U/J has been reflected in Gold , which suggest natural USD strength. Looking at my U/J charts , there is nothing to suggest that the U/J is on any sort of uptrend, but rather ranging between 78.20 and 76.50 as it has been doing since November after the intervention, it made an attempt at 76 after Bernanke's dovish statement, and is now going through a correction ,back into range ,until the market gets a better insight on whether the US will pursue with QE3 or place it on hold.
Yes exactly. The speculators.....the real ones, no the hu hu ones....have been buying Yen ever since a bad NFP kicked off the UJ slide back in May 2010. The earthquake / tsunami certainly helped the Yen strength, and despite repeated interventions, even a G7 sponsored one, the Yen has continued to appreciate. All the way along that journey there has been bad news for USA (in the main) and not so bad news for Japan. For sure the true state of Japan is widely known, but due to their huge current account, the speculators seemed to not worry because, together with Gold and the Swissy, they were safer bets than USD and EU.

USD is falling back into favour somewhat (check out a usdx chart) and a bottom seems to be trying to carve itself a place here on the UJ. Continued bad news for the Yen and not so bad for the USD support this.

There comes a time when speculators realise that there is no more to be milked from a certain situation and/or currency, so they will look elsewhere to ply their trade.

Japan will not be too worried about the latest news because more than that, a weaker currency is important....it's needed or else they are going to have a very tough time surviving.

Is this indeed the top for the Yen? Who knows......it's been hanging around this level since about last June.

Other countries may be able to get away with intervention without too much in the way of repercussions......don't forget, Japan is the 3rd largest economy and is a valuable trading partner of Uncle Sam.

People can sit here and hu hu all they like about 'intervention' but if you look at a Daily chart it's plain to see that we are stuck in a range between 76 and 78, and have been since last July.

There are a few people who are just dreaming on this thread, and wishing and praying and hoping for intervention. The rest of us are trading what we see and not wasting time and energy with this silly intervention talk.
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,166
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:15pm Feb 12, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting realjumper
Yes exactly. The speculators.....the real ones, no the hu hu ones....have been buying Yen ever since a bad NFP kicked off the UJ slide back in May 2010. The earthquake / tsunami certainly helped the Yen strength, and despite repeated interventions, even a G7 sponsored one, the Yen has continued to appreciate. All the way along that journey there has been bad news for USA (in the main) and not so bad news for Japan. For sure the true state of Japan is widely known, but due to their huge current account, the speculators seemed to not worry because,...
hahaha... u miss sumthing.. if u are exp trader....if u was trade in the carry trade unwind time previously...u will know who is speculator...hahaha

ok.....dont blame each other ok...hahaha....bye2
Bismillah
  • #30,167
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:25pm Feb 12, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting krunfx
hahaha... u miss sumthing.. if u are exp trader....if u was trade in the carry trade unwind time previously...u will know who is speculator...hahaha

ok.....dont blame each other ok...hahaha....bye2
I'm not interested in carry trades.....and neither are the majority here. They are mostly day traders. But every time I pull you up on your yearning/wishing/begging for intervention, you go off on the carry trade unwinding tangent......which tells a story all about you...hu hu hu
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,168
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:32pm Feb 12, 2012 8:32pm
Looks perfectly correlated in the 30 min chart, times of peaks and lows align perfectly.

Edit this was for Mohan ,but I see he has removed his post
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #30,169
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:41pm Feb 12, 2012 8:41pm
Huhuhuhu become a popular words now


Huhuhuhu...Lolz
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,170
  • Edited 8:53pm Feb 12, 2012 8:42pm | Edited 8:53pm
Quoting FXMindset
Huhuhuhu become a popular words now


Huhuhuhu...Lolz
Yep that's definitely one up trend on that one
just learnt it myself

Huhuhuhuhuhu
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #30,171
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:46pm Feb 12, 2012 8:46pm
Quoting Fidza
Yep that's definitely one up trend on that one
just learnt it myself
nah you forget added huhuhu words below your post..


huhuhuhu...Lol
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,172
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:52pm Feb 12, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting FXMindset
nah you forget added huhuhu words below your post..


huhuhuhu...Lol
What you talking about ?Check again lol

huhuhu
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God
  • #30,173
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:58pm Feb 12, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting realjumper
I'm not interested in carry trades.....and neither are the majority here. They are mostly day traders. But every time I pull you up on your yearning/wishing/begging for intervention, you go off on the carry trade unwinding tangent......which tells a story all about you...hu hu hu
no i not mean the carry trade...but i mean your word...."speculator"..u said the speculator just come from the earth quake..... i think they come before....since dollaryen=125Y...hehhehe
Bismillah
  • #30,174
  • Feb 12, 2012 8:58pm Feb 12, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting Fidza
What you talking about ?Check again lol

huhuhu
Here he comes...The founder of huhuhu is watching now

huhuhuhu...
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,175
  • Feb 12, 2012 9:15pm Feb 12, 2012 9:15pm
Recent view on yen...is boj ready their weapon to help japan authorities to deal with the economic contraction????
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Bismillah
  • #30,176
  • Feb 12, 2012 9:52pm Feb 12, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting krunfx
no i not mean the carry trade...but i mean your word...."speculator"..u said the speculator just come from the earth quake..... i think they come before....since dollaryen=125Y...hehhehe
No. I didn't say that at all.....please.....do show me where I said that.

I will make allowances for English not being your first language, but please don't attempt to put words in my mouth. Thanks you.

hu hu hu
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,177
  • Feb 12, 2012 9:59pm Feb 12, 2012 9:59pm
My view..

In respect to FX MIndset..Assalammualaikum Brother =)
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  • #30,178
  • Edited 10:29pm Feb 12, 2012 10:00pm | Edited 10:29pm
Ummm The dollar yen downtrend began back in 1997.....there is NOTHING to suggest that the trend is over. As I said.....(give me strength).....this *may* be trying to carve out a bottom. Time will tell.....hu hu hu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uj.jpg Size: 198 KB
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,179
  • Feb 12, 2012 10:05pm Feb 12, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting sinchan
My view..

In respect to FX MIndset..Assalammualaikum Brother =)
Yes bro ? Amen

Huhuhu
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #30,180
  • Feb 12, 2012 11:01pm Feb 12, 2012 11:01pm
Quoting realjumper
Ummm The dollar yen downtrend began back in 1997.....there is NOTHING to suggest that the trend is over. As I said.....(give me strength).....this *may* be trying to carve out a bottom. Time will tell.....hu hu hu

hahaha..... please read my chart n my circle line..im only say wht i see....if u are exp trader waht u will say if u se inverse H&S was formed...i ask u???hahaha
Bismillah
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