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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #30,121
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:03pm Feb 9, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting sidhujag
what i dont understand is that you look at oanda's position ratio's and more and more retail noobs are going short which is driving this thing up? are these ppl retarded trying to not only fight a CB but also a monthly trend change? LOL stupid noobs
Be nice to them, they are doing the hard job
  • #30,122
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:16pm Feb 9, 2012 6:16pm
Quoting hornsant
Be nice to them, they are doing the hard job
The utter stupidity amuses me, look at the positions now lol they are falling off a cliff, I guess they don't know the meaning of "trade with the trend" lol that or they are all using daily tf's which I highly doubt.

In fact as a contrarian you can buy ej/gj/aj/cj/uj all the jpy crosses since noobs are shorting them heavily.
  • #30,123
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:17pm Feb 9, 2012 6:17pm
Azumi: Will Make Any FX Intervention Decision Myself
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday he will make any decision on whether to intervene in the currency market on his own, suggesting possible U.S. criticism wouldn't be a decisive factor in making such decisions.
Bismillah
  • #30,124
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:41am Feb 10, 2012 2:41am
Quoting krunfx
Azumi: Will Make Any FX Intervention Decision Myself
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japanese Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday he will make any decision on whether to intervene in the currency market on his own, suggesting possible U.S. criticism wouldn't be a decisive factor in making such decisions.
You mean...hu hu......he's not going to consult you first???
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #30,125
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:36am Feb 10, 2012 3:36am
Quoting realjumper
You mean...hu hu......he's not going to consult you first???
hahaha..this event still under speculation process my fren
Bismillah
  • #30,126
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:33am Feb 10, 2012 4:33am
Quoting mohan76
getting close , and it's Friday today, manage it wisely, u know what i am mean
huhuhu.... UJ might test 78.00 area maybe tonight after US market open or maybe next week
btw thank your Sir for the advice
  • #30,127
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:27am Feb 10, 2012 5:27am
More than Fx Intervention... I think Market has formed a decent bottomish pattern

50ema: 77.04
100ema: 77.20
200ema: 77.7

Crossing 200ema and holding for a week will confirm bull trend on this pair.
  • #30,128
  • Feb 10, 2012 7:20pm Feb 10, 2012 7:20pm
Closed above long term trendline. Holding longs for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,129
  • Feb 11, 2012 2:57am Feb 11, 2012 2:57am
Sometimes I go long sometimes I go short. But the main trend remains, and some key factors haven't change, the Asian currencies (Yen included) are undervalued, and major Japonese exporters still change huge quantities of USD and Euros to Yen. And that's why intervention is not well seen by US Goverment. Japan is not China and should not try to keep it's currency undervalued artificially.
  • #30,130
  • Feb 11, 2012 4:06am Feb 11, 2012 4:06am
Quoting Tradertuga
Sometimes I go long sometimes I go short. But the main trend remains, and some key factors haven't change, the Asian currencies (Yen included) are undervalued, and major Japonese exporters still change huge quantities of USD and Euros to Yen. And that's why intervention is not well seen by US Goverment. Japan is not China and should not try to keep it's currency undervalued artificially.

You suggest that Japan is keeping it's Yen undervalued artificially. Then please help everyone (including the government of Japan) understand why the BOJ have to spend HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of dollars trying to devalue it.

Maybe you need to do a little more reading on the topic..
  • #30,131
  • Feb 11, 2012 4:51am Feb 11, 2012 4:51am
Quoting Mpt
You suggest that Japan is keeping it's Yen undervalued artificially. Then please help everyone (including the government of Japan) understand why the BOJ have to spend HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of dollars trying to devalue it.

Maybe you need to do a little more reading on the topic..
Do you have a problem on text interpretation? I said they are trying to devalued it.
  • #30,132
  • Feb 11, 2012 4:53am Feb 11, 2012 4:53am
Quoting Mpt
You suggest that Japan is keeping it's Yen undervalued artificially. Then please help everyone (including the government of Japan) understand why the BOJ have to spend HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS of dollars trying to devalue it.

Maybe you need to do a little more reading on the topic..
Where in hell did they spend hundreds of billions of USD? You meant Yen, right?
  • #30,133
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:01am Feb 11, 2012 5:01am
Quoting Tradertuga
Do you have a problem on text interpretation? I said they are trying to devalued it.
I certainly hope I don't I have a problem. But when someone states "... the Asian currencies (Yen included) are undervalued ...... Japan is not China and should not try to keep it's currency undervalued artificially " I have to question their overall understanding.

And yes, they sell yen and normally buy USD. In so doing, they devalue the yen, but then have to off load USD or whatever currency they bought at some later time.
  • #30,134
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:25am Feb 11, 2012 5:25am
Quoting Mpt
I certainly hope I don't I have a problem. But when someone states "... the Asian currencies (Yen included) are undervalued ...... Japan is not China and should not try to keep it's currency undervalued artificially " I have to question their overall understanding.

And yes, they sell yen and normally buy USD. In so doing, they devalue the yen, but then have to off load USD or whatever currency they bought at some later time.
Humm...ok, but I guess you got it now. Yen is undervalued and the BOJ keeps trying to keep it undervalued.

Maybe the next interventation may not be against the USD but on the Euro.
  • #30,135
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:28am Feb 11, 2012 5:28am
Quoting Tradertuga
Humm...ok, but I guess you got it now. Yen is undervalued and the BOJ keeps trying to keep it undervalued.

Maybe the next interventation may not be against the USD but on the Euro.
On your point 2, you may well be right. They may intervene and buy euro, pound or USD as deemed appropriate, as yen overall value is determined against a basket of currencies.

On your point 1, I give up.
  • #30,136
  • Feb 11, 2012 5:56am Feb 11, 2012 5:56am
Quoting Mpt
On your point 1, I give up.
You start on the wrong premisses that because the Yen is getting strong is already overvalued by now. And when you start reading you assumed that I tought that (that the Yen is overvalued).

And it's not me who says that the Yen is undervalued, it's the IMF, Nomura and so on. And the BOJ never interviened on those terms. They do it against market distortions and so on. As opossed to the Swiss who openlyed said that their currency was overvalued.

But again this is trading, and who cares if a currency is overvalued or undervalued.
  • #30,137
  • Feb 11, 2012 6:35am Feb 11, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Tradertuga
You start on the wrong premisses that because the Yen is getting strong is already overvalued by now. And when you start reading you assumed that I tought that (that the Yen is overvalued).

And it's not me who says that the Yen is undervalued, it's the IMF, Nomura and so on. And the BOJ never interviened on those terms. They do it against market distortions and so on. As opossed to the Swiss who openlyed said that their currency was overvalued.

But again this is trading, and who cares if a currency is overvalued or undervalued.

I was going to give up.

Please go and research this issue before talking such balderdash. I will write in small sentences.

Start by researching the Plaza Accord. The yen is strong (overvalued) against the USD and a basket of other currencies. It has been strengthening since the Plaza Accord. The strong yen is a continuing problem for Japanese manufacturers. The BOJ and government of Japan would like the yen to be weaker. The USD has been weakening over several years. So, the yen has effectively strenghtened against the USD. The USD is a significant part of the weighted yen index of major trading partners. This makes the yen seem expensive to buyers of japanese products. To deal with this, much time and money is spent by the BOJ trying to slow down the rate of yen strengthening and they would like it to lose some of it's value (strength).

I cannot say it any more simply. But i fail to understand how anyone who purports to being a forex trader could get this matter confused. Maybe you should find an alternate activity. The sole comment "But again this is trading, and who cares if a currency is overvalued or undervalued" is somewhat amazing on its own. By its very nature, trading is the art of buying undervalued and selling over valued currency pairs. Under/over value is what makes things move in price. Otherwise, we would go back to fixed exchange rates and there would be no trading.
  • #30,138
  • Feb 11, 2012 6:46am Feb 11, 2012 6:46am
Well, I think you miss the basics on economy and in forex trading.

Since when an intervation on a currency to make it strong or weak means that currency is already strong or weak? You can intervene on a currency that's already strong to make it stronger, or you can intervene on a currency that is already weaken to make it weaker.

The Yen is undervalued and the BOJ interventions are meant to undervaluate it even more (altought that's not what they say). That's what I think. Got it!? How hard is that to understand?

The nonsense you write like it's getting stronger year by year so it must be really strong now, it's a noob statment, and it has been said for...years now. And guess what, do a reallity check and look at a graph to see where the Yen was and where the Yen is.
  • #30,139
  • Edited 8:03am Feb 11, 2012 6:55am | Edited 8:03am
Quoting Mpt
The BOJ and government of Japan would like the yen to be weaker.
As an exporting country which wouldn't like to have a weaker currency to export even more? They would like, sure they would, I gues as many other exporting countries would.

Quoting Mpt
So, the yen has effectively strenghtened against the USD.
So??? Does it means is already strong or too strong!?

Quoting Mpt
This makes the yen seem expensive to buyers of japanese products.
So far so good, they seem to have a trading surplus so far (except for the last period). Even if it was overvalued, marketing, innovation, and quality plays a major role on sales. So, so far it doesn't seem expensive to outside buyers to go for Japanese products.

Quoting Mpt
To deal with this, much time and money is spent by the BOJ trying to slow down the rate of yen strengthening and they would like it to lose some of it's value (strength).
How come is spend so much time!? Making a few calls to banks desks checking orders? Please....do you know what you're talking about?
  • #30,140
  • Feb 11, 2012 7:12am Feb 11, 2012 7:12am
guys, a currency pair is never over- or undervalued otherwise it would have another price. Politicians, brokers, IMF, banks might tell that but there is only one correct price, current market price equilibrium.
From that point we start looking at future economic developments which might influence this equilibrium to project price changes if you see those developments correctly you profit otherwise you lose.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
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