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  • #594,121
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:04pm Feb 10, 2012 12:04pm
  •  duca
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Investing is simple, but not easy | 409 Posts
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give 1 and get 100
  • #594,122
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:09pm Feb 10, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting todstars2
If this is indeed a Correction, which I suspect it is considering the strong resistance above.

Typical corrections last from 50% to 66% of the original movement.

This gives us downside targets of:


66%=1.28564 50%=1.29722

It will be interesting to see how next week goes.
nice, make sure u trade with the plan and stick to it

usd breaks tl
  • #594,123
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:12pm Feb 10, 2012 12:12pm
hermm..i dont know should i close my position or hold it until next week.any advise?
patient is my attitude, rushing is a dog
  • #594,124
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:51pm Feb 10, 2012 12:51pm
I love when the NFP comes out. EURUSD just gets crazy: http://bit.ly/wJ
  • #594,125
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:55pm Feb 10, 2012 1:55pm
Are you guys for real?

My guess is most of you guys are from the states or Canada, where you think rating agency's are always right: They haven't been right in 99% of all of their cases. Why? They are being payed by the big boys to give exactly the statements the big boys want them to.

Let's talk about fundamentals: Compare the national debt in the states to that in Europe: what I always say: everything in the states is muuuuuch bigger, but in Europe everything is muuuuuch better. Just make a choice when it comes to debt. I certainly dont have 10 creditcards to cover my first one. The US is in far worse state than Europe. So USD should be down and EUR should go up.

Monday, do you really expect EU to go down? Please show a chart where that move looks normal. I am not able to, and believe me I have seen a lot of charts.

Actually I should be happy that the herd here is looking for a short, so I can get rich quick, but I know you guys can't help it to get slaughtered by the big guys, I mean well. Please don't fall for it. Why do you think this happens just before the weekend. This is the wall of worry we are climbing. The big boys act on your fear! They know you don't like to hold positions over the weekend. You are over leveraged , because of greed, and now you're getting anxious and you will be forced to sell your long positions although your underwater. If you have sold, they win. Monday will be an up day. There will be no supply. the scared traders will have sold all the underwater long positions.

Think about it.

One other good advice for the weekend: watch the film/documentary "the inside job" . Larry Summers is still in business.
Then decide if all the news you get is trustworthy.

Have a nice weekend
  • #594,126
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:57pm Feb 10, 2012 1:57pm
Greek Cabinet gives Papademos approval for loan plan, says official.
  • #594,127
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:02pm Feb 10, 2012 2:02pm
This is the last thing I will write before the weekend:

Take EU chart: 4HR
draw a exponential moving average (close) with period 365
Tell me what you see.

:-)
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  • #594,128
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:10pm Feb 10, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting sugarbelly
Are you guys for real?

My guess is most of you guys are from the states or Canada, where you think rating agency's are always right: They haven't been right in 99% of all of their cases. Why? They are being payed by the big boys to give exactly the statements the big boys want them to.

Let's talk about fundamentals: Compare the national debt in the states to that in Europe: what I always say: everything in the states is muuuuuch bigger, but in Europe everything is muuuuuch better. Just make a choice when it comes to debt. I certainly dont have...
For me nothing is 100% especially in forex , even for the next hour movement ..always a 50 /50 chance that the pair will move up/down/sideways..prefer to watch PA than thinking/analyze too much where the pair will go ..Let's see what happen on Monday then..
  • #594,129
  • Edited 2:39pm Feb 10, 2012 2:31pm | Edited 2:39pm
Tell me what you see? ;-)

A return to the lower part of the channel or a Correction depending how you see it.

1.29ish or 1.28ish depending on how overworked everyone gets.

Always subject to change but the history is there.

Staying long and strong and looking to bulk up on positions at the bottom of this channel.
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  • #594,130
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:49pm Feb 10, 2012 2:49pm
Ok, here's the news from Bloomberg:
Greek Cabinet Approves 2nd Loan Pact: Official
  • #594,131
  • Edited 3:18pm Feb 10, 2012 3:06pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting sugarbelly
Are you guys for real?

My guess is most of you guys are from the states or Canada, where you think rating agency's are always right: They haven't been right in 99% of all of their cases. Why? They are being payed by the big boys to give exactly the statements the big boys want them to.

Let's talk about fundamentals: Compare the national debt in the states to that in Europe: what I always say: everything in the states is muuuuuch bigger, but in Europe everything is muuuuuch better. Just make a choice when it comes to debt. I certainly dont have...
US is a bigger dog than all of EUR combined. US has more gold end of story. Gold=power... consumption is much higher in the US. This means a confidence boost in US is a benefit to the USD in times of uncertainty you flock to the strongest economy. That's also why when you have fear you buy USD.... now S&P controls most of the money flow, a happy S&P is a happy market, but market also wants USD... it can't have both... but it would rather have either one of these than EUROdebt. This means S&P dips will be heavy USD buys and S&P rises will be profit taking USD....

also historically selloffs on friday might lead to trend changes. Fundamentally usd is going to go on a rampage, just gotta get timing right as big boys don't want retailers on the wagon when it does start to roll.
  • #594,132
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:12pm Feb 10, 2012 3:12pm
Quoting sugarbelly
Are you guys for real?

My guess is most of you guys are from the states or Canada, where you think rating agency's are always right: They haven't been right in 99% of all of their cases. Why? They are being payed by the big boys to give exactly the statements the big boys want them to.

Let's talk about fundamentals: Compare the national debt in the states to that in Europe: what I always say: everything in the states is muuuuuch bigger, but in Europe everything is muuuuuch better. Just make a choice when it comes to debt. I certainly dont...
will you keep it quite, finally someone who sees the bigger picture on ff, green pips to us both next week
  • #594,133
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:39pm Feb 10, 2012 3:39pm
Quoting sidhujag
US is a bigger dog than all of EUR combined. US has more gold end of story. Gold=power... consumption is much higher in the US.
If US has so much Gold, why wont the Fed let Ron Paul audit the gold reserves? maybe because fed has already sold a large %...
The strength of an economy is not in consumption but manufacturing and production, exports drive the economic engine. US has moved all its manufacturing to China & Mexico, companies are driving down labor costs in
America - if workers earn less, they spend less, with credit drying up so will consumption.
Germany is the only western economic powerhouse, After WW1 it paid compensation to the allies and bounced back, After WW2 it paid compensation, lost most of its workforce and all its manufacturing and bounced back, After unification it helped East Germany modernize and still bounced back and now it will be the backbone of EU and singlehandedly bail out all the PIIGS and cover french debt too.
  • #594,134
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:44pm Feb 10, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting sugarbelly
Are you guys for real?

My guess is most of you guys are from the states or Canada, where you think rating agency's are always right: They haven't been right in 99% of all of their cases. Why? They are being payed by the big boys to give exactly the statements the big boys want them to.

Actually I should be happy that the herd here is looking for a short, so I can get rich quick

Think about it.
I thought about it.
And came to the conclusion that I rarely see a post from a guy from the Netherlands that is so stupid. Usually they are so much smarter than you are.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #594,135
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:59pm Feb 10, 2012 4:59pm
Quoting sugarbelly
Are you guys for real?

Monday, do you really expect EU to go down? Please show a chart where that move looks normal. I am not able to, and believe me I have seen a lot of charts.

Have a nice weekend
Fundamentally you have some good points, here, have you seen this chart? Price below 200 MA, seems to be bouncing down off 100 MA, Strong Trend Filter is RED, as you say, next week will tell all.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #594,136
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:04pm Feb 10, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting Xdir
If US has so much Gold, why wont the Fed let Ron Paul audit the gold reserves? maybe because fed has already sold a large %...

Its a fact that the US is head over heals the heaviest gold hitter by a large margin. That is the counted for gold. I would give some extra to someone like India or China that hold more than what they say, but they are mute points when talking about the amount of gold the developed nations have.

The strength of an economy is not in consumption but manufacturing and production, exports drive the economic engine. US has moved all its manufacturing to China & Mexico, companies are driving down labor costs in
America - if workers earn less, they spend less, with credit drying up so will consumption.
Germany is the only western economic powerhouse, After WW1 it paid compensation to the allies and bounced back, After...
They don't allow auditing because they will uncover all the uncounted gold that is stored over at West Point.

The points you bring up about consumption were obvious from the 70's after the gold standard was abolished. The plan was always to offload work and become consumptive in nature. In a normal economy this would deem failure but not here... the system is created to withstand the negative consequences of consumption vs production from a supply demand perspective and turn them into positive by a simple mechanism called the fed. Since its private its the perfect getaway vehicle.

Don't you think the powers know all of what u said already? It's just becoming obvious to us "the sheep" as to what happened.

In terms of China they think they won the art of war by becoming the producer but I think the rug will be pulled from under them as they are not respecting their role in the "setup"
  • #594,137
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:12pm Feb 10, 2012 5:12pm
If you are a consumer like the US you don't even bother focus on producing (although the shift of focus has begun) because you are backed by the perpetual money machine and the world has no choice but to follow your rules otherwise they will hurt more than you.

Now that they have established themselves as an even bigger superpower they are now trying to control the debt by manipulating the USD and trying to become a producer.

The idea was to tell everyone hey you do all the work, and then just give it to me for the price I give you ok? The world: OK USA!

USD manipulation = prop it up, QE at a high price, offloads debt when it matures at a much lower price(sell high buy low). Beats inflation anyday.
  • #594,138
  • Feb 10, 2012 5:41pm Feb 10, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Erebus
Fundamentally you have some good points, here, have you seen this chart? Price below 200 MA, seems to be bouncing down off 100 MA, Strong Trend Filter is RED, as you say, next week will tell all.

wave 3 can never be the shortest.
  • #594,139
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:22pm Feb 10, 2012 8:22pm
Goodmorning everyone, i have a problem here, with my account fxopen, my friend say that it trade 23/24h.Last night,as you can see, the E/U was up to 1.31963 that i see the chart of fxpro, but my fxopen account had closed before that at 1.3169 while i was shorting. if coming Monday, it has a gap below 1.3169, what will happen ?
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Think Different
  • #594,140
  • Feb 10, 2012 8:25pm Feb 10, 2012 8:25pm
Quoting todstars2
Tell me what you see? ;-)

A return to the lower part of the channel or a Correction depending how you see it.

1.29ish or 1.28ish depending on how overworked everyone gets.

Always subject to change but the history is there.

Staying long and strong and looking to bulk up on positions at the bottom of this channel.
I can actually see it drop further than that. A quick look at the weekly charts may suggest a Gartley pattern completing at the end of March? Def looking to short the pair down to 1.25 perhaps before a potential reversal to 1.35 or even 1.4 areas. All long term, but pretty much defines the direction of the pair as I see it.
I'm just a small fish in a large pond; forever swimming against the tide.
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