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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #22,161
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:22pm Feb 9, 2012 11:22pm
My first TP is 1,3196
  • #22,162
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:28pm Feb 9, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting A-game
No specific target as yet but 3180 looks good. Having said that, i would not be surprised if it dropped further. What price did you get? I woke up this morning and got in at 3272 just in time. That spike came awfully close to breakeven but im still holding.
I am in at 1.32709

1.3180 is the minimum and I expect a bounce at that level.

Depending on sentiment, the bounce may be very short lived and then the next target down from there is yet to be seen. However, strictly from a technical perspective 1.3130 seems to be right.

Just for kicks, here are the latest 10 year gov bond yields. Notice the 10Y US is now over 2% If this breaches 2.1%, then we're looking at another sustained USD rally

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: govbonds.jpg Size: 77 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #22,163
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:33pm Feb 9, 2012 11:33pm
Main focus will likely be the Swiss Jan CPI release at 0815GMT which could have some serious implications for the SNB’s EUR/CHF peg.

After that there’s the Jan UK PPI release at 0930GMT

NY focus will be on the Dec trade balance at 1330GMT and the Michigan consumer sentiment at 1455GMT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #22,164
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:36pm Feb 9, 2012 11:36pm
Thanks for that PipTrapper. I am not familiar on how bond yields effect currency prices so your information is appreciated.
  • #22,165
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:44pm Feb 9, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting A-game
Thanks for that PipTrapper. I am not familiar on how bond yields effect currency prices so your information is appreciated.
It is a bit complicated if you want to make it so, however here's a basic concept.

As long as there are no serious head winds (risks) in the issuing country, the higher the yields get, the more attractive they become.

It works on a supply/demand basis just like currencies. Think of it as the flow and ebb of waves on a beach.

1. Yields go up
2. More buyers come in (positive effect on currency)
3. Yields go down
4. More sellers come in (negative effect on currency)
Repeat
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #22,166
  • Feb 9, 2012 11:47pm Feb 9, 2012 11:47pm
Great explanation thank you.
  • #22,167
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:16am Feb 10, 2012 12:16am
PipTrapper

why is it that yen and dollar are refererred to as low yield currency ?
rat
  • #22,168
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:20am Feb 10, 2012 12:20am
Still holding the TL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 24 KB
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #22,169
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:22am Feb 10, 2012 12:22am
Quoting Harpe Eagle
Still holding the TL
did u buy that high harpe?

Have I got something on my face, SOLDIER?
  • #22,170
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:30am Feb 10, 2012 12:30am
Quoting rattyo
PipTrapper

why is it that yen and dollar are refererred to as low yield currency ?
It's because of the non-standard QE measures keeping the overnight rate low (0% to 0.25%)
These rates are significantly below inflation so keeping money on deposit in current accounts doesn't pay. So the next best thing to a guaranteed deposit is bonds which are also very low. The US 2 year bond is 0.25% or thereabout.

So, in a risk-on environment, capital flows to those currencies with higher yields in overnight deposit rates and bonds.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #22,171
  • Feb 10, 2012 12:31am Feb 10, 2012 12:31am
Quoting bumapatria
did u buy that high harpe?

yup bro Stop loss 1.3180 (but thankfully a small lot .10)
That was a pending order of buy stop which executed yesterday...But I hope i will get out of it in a winning trade
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #22,172
  • Edited 1:23am Feb 10, 2012 1:01am | Edited 1:23am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
This is just amazing...

FinMins could not make a decision yesterday because of open questions on G-land austerity plan.

There is now a 2 day strike in G-land against savings and sunday there will be a demonstration of estimated over 20000 people against government functions.

According to my sources in athens (relatives from my wives side) , people have no information of real situation in g-land. Newspapers do not dare to write how government succeeded to destroy G's economy and news are demonizing EU as an evil society trying to take over greece.

That is the main issue here. Disinformation and lying to the people. If truth would be given to them wide open, party leaders would be lynched and there would be a revolution - which is not that far anyways because of austerity plan.

That is what all politicians are really afraid of - if that would happen in Greece it would spread to other mediterranean countries with similar problems - that would cause Southern EU to default and would destroy european economy for decades.
  • #22,173
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:21am Feb 10, 2012 1:21am
Quoting AFXFin
This just amazing...

FinMins could not make a decision yesterday because of open questions on G-land austerity plan.

There is now a 2 day strike in G-land against savings and sunday there will be a demonstration of estimated over 20000 people against government functions.

According to my sources in athens (relatives from my wives side) , people have no information of real situation in g-land. Newspapers do not dare to write how government succeeded to destroy G's economy and news are demonizing EU as an evil society trying to take over...
Well then I guess the Euro will be flat to bullish in the short term... until reality hits them between the eyes
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #22,174
  • Feb 10, 2012 1:26am Feb 10, 2012 1:26am
  •  AFXFin
  • | Joined Oct 2011 | Status: Price don't have a mind of it's own | 915 Posts
Quoting PipTrapper
Well then I guess the Euro will be flat to bullish in the short term... until reality hits them between the eyes
Yep - against all odds...
  • #22,175
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:43am Feb 10, 2012 2:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
It is a bit complicated if you want to make it so, however here's a basic concept.

As long as there are no serious head winds (risks) in the issuing country, the higher the yields get, the more attractive they become.

It works on a supply/demand basis just like currencies. Think of it as the flow and ebb of waves on a beach.

1. Yields go up
2. More buyers come in (positive effect on currency)
3. Yields go down
4. More sellers come in (negative effect on currency)
Repeat
Hey PT & Friends...keep up the good work!

Been trying to understand the above post..if we are following money flow then when bond yields are rising is this not rather a sign that money is leaving safe haven US bonds and US $ (as in a risk on environment) and seeking higher yielding options elsewhere thus depressing US$ ? While higher bond yields will ultimately make them relatively more attractive in the future, in the short term is this not rather a bearish US$ signal as it shows money leaving US$ & US bonds for higher yielding assets?

BTW the only reason why I could even attempt to post such a question is solely due to what I've learned so far (er,..or possibly misunderstood of course) from PT & others on this thread, so thanks to all for that and safe trading!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #22,176
  • Feb 10, 2012 2:47am Feb 10, 2012 2:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 25 KB
Bulls Run. Bears Bite. We Profit.
  • #22,177
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:02am Feb 10, 2012 3:02am
Quoting FXMindset
Short @ 1.3270 SL 1.3295 TP : Open
Note : Dont follow me
There's Bearish Pinbar in 1.3284 at 15M chart,Downtrend (15M) Still intact
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E15.png Size: 33 KB
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #22,178
  • Feb 10, 2012 3:10am Feb 10, 2012 3:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
I am in at 1.32709

1.3180 is the minimum and I expect a bounce at that level.

Depending on sentiment, the bounce may be very short lived and then the next target down from there is yet to be seen. However, strictly from a technical perspective 1.3130 seems to be right.

Just for kicks, here are the latest 10 year gov bond yields. Notice the 10Y US is now over 2% If this breaches 2.1%, then we're looking at another sustained USD rally

Attachment
Hi PT

Thank you for the analysis.

Where is your stop loss?

Thanks

Alexander
  • #22,179
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:18am Feb 10, 2012 4:18am
Quoting Gofer Pips
From technical crystal ball. I see short opportunity to 1.3150 target if we get hourly close below 1.3232.Short opportunity of retest with tight stop. Just my crystal ball told me, but it may need a good cleaning.

Hey with a crazy Italian talking, and some G-spotters agreeing to crap with tongue in cheek, and the Germans slowly conquering Europe without firing a shot.............anything can happen.
Remember this. No comments yesterday.

Hourly close will tell.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2-9-2012.png Size: 81 KB
  • #22,180
  • Feb 10, 2012 4:19am Feb 10, 2012 4:19am
Went short at 1.32600

Took Profit 1.31998

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