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Sonic R. System

  • #30,481
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:01am Feb 9, 2012 3:01am
Quoting foxybunny
One thing I like in your trading charts is that you easily can take either direction, long or short. This is very admirable.

I still seem to have a bias of one side trading and holding for too long time, and normally it is the Long side rather than Short side.
Trading EU and holding "too long" you have been doing well because for many days this has been in a Bear Flag, going up. Even over the past recent days, PA has tended to push the envelope.

But, the issue is about bias. We all have a bias. Hell, if we didn't we'd never have enough faith to pull the trade trigger! Bias does, however, interfere with us pulling the trigger on a trade in direction that is opposite our bias. And in that lies the problem with having a bias.

Hypothetically then, maybe we should never have a bias, never! Maybe we should put our faith in, and just stick to, the Sonic R. System basics: LO, Waves, Dragon, Trend, and S&R. And trade what comes of it. And spend our energies on figuring out the SL and money management side of the issue, instead of the bias side?

Your thoughts on this?

-tah
  • #30,482
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:34am Feb 9, 2012 3:34am
EURUSD monthly

Looks not really bearish for me.
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  • #30,483
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:56am Feb 9, 2012 3:56am
Quoting futurespeter
EURUSD monthly

Looks not really bearish for me.
Different perspective in analysis may yield different view. If we refer to the following monthly chart, is EUR/USD bull or bear?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,484
  • Feb 9, 2012 3:56am Feb 9, 2012 3:56am
Quoting futurespeter
EURUSD monthly

Looks not really bearish for me.
The Monthly "picture" for trading on M15 is about as relevant as a flea floating down the river on a leaf yelling, "Help! Help! Open the draw bridge. I'm coming thru!".

Anyway, as for right now the Dragon is angled up, but we might be getting a Wave for a short. Mixed bag. What will US open and the EUR and the USD high impact releases come to? That's what I want to see.

-tah
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,485
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:07am Feb 9, 2012 4:07am
Quoting traderathome
Trading EU and holding "too long" you have been doing well because for many days this has been in a Bear Flag, going up. Even over the past recent days, PA has tended to push the envelope.

But, the issue is about bias. We all have a bias. Hell, if we didn't we'd never have enough faith to pull the trade trigger! Bias does, however, interfere with us pulling the trigger on a trade in direction that is opposite our bias. And in that lies the problem with having a bias.

Hypothetically then, maybe we should never have a bias, never!...

Damn hard to never have a bias, either trading short term or middle term, especially when we are constantly monitoring the screen.

The way to not have a bias would be looking into automated EA trading, that may help, once we have a robust manual trading method that can be automated.

This is where pure trading the basic SonicR can avoid the bias, as long as we know how to identify and draw the initial wave "more clearly".
The identifying of the wave to me is the major key and also can cause a different bias to people drawing the initial wave.

Seeing how you and Sonicdeejay trades easily on the Short and Long side, it does prove that sticking to basic SonicR is a good way to go for most traders, just that we get itchy fingers and think too much as we trade more.
This is the normal emotions and too much thinking coming into play.

Nowadays, I am reinforcing using this phrase "I want whatever the market wants".
This means to have no bias.
Just go figure out what the market wants, easy said than done!
  • #30,486
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:10am Feb 9, 2012 4:10am
Quoting traderathome
The Monthly "picture" for trading on M15 is about as relevant as a flea floating down the river on a leaf yelling, "Help! Help! Open the draw bridge. I'm coming thru!".

Anyway, as for right now the Dragon is angled up, but we might be getting a Wave for a short. Mixed bag. What will US open and the EUR and the USD high impact releases come to? That's what I want to see.

-tah

Nice flea analogy.

From the last few posts of different posters, bias from different people on different timeframe ... hmm.

One must know what timeframe they are trading and which timeframe they are going to exit.
  • #30,487
  • Feb 9, 2012 4:17am Feb 9, 2012 4:17am
Quoting foxybunny
Nice flea analogy.

From the last few posts of different posters, bias from different people on different timeframe ... hmm.

One must know what timeframe they are trading and which timeframe they are going to exit.
So, Sonikers should just accept to trade M15. Period! Check H4 for notable candles (hanging man, hammer, doji, engulfing) that could support an M15 setup. That is easy enough to do. Most times H4 won't be any help, and M15 setups will still come and go. But those times H4 does speak up, then as Ed Sullivan used to say, "A really, really big show we have tonight!".

As for EU right now, the multiple EUR and USD high impact releases could be momentus. As always, there is no knowing what will be. So, I'm sitting it out. If I trade, hopefully it will be after the last whipsaw!

-tah
  • #30,488
  • Edited 5:12am Feb 9, 2012 4:39am | Edited 5:12am
UChf Example:

EU has both EUR and USD high impact releases today, a mess! On the other hand, UChf has only the USD release to impact it. Less complicated. Shown is preliminary. The USD release could blow this all to hell and back; whipsawing and whatever! The Dragon is just now starting to level off. But it is not angled up, and when the USD release hits this could go either way. And even if one was inclined to be biased long, with the potential for whipsawing, no one knows where in the dickens to put the SL! So, like EU, I'm waiting for the bells to toll.

Today is a day for patiently waiting and stalking your pairs. Let the BBs blow their wad, then pick your trade. (imho)

-tah
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #30,489
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:11am Feb 9, 2012 5:11am
Whatever the EU does.. I am so going to Foo Fighters Live in SG...

Inserted Video


Sonic
  • #30,490
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:15am Feb 9, 2012 5:15am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Whatever the EU does.. I am so going to Foo Fighters Live in SG...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNT-e8AwmqU

Sonic
+1
  • #30,491
  • Feb 9, 2012 5:57am Feb 9, 2012 5:57am
I have some request..from sonikers who stays in SG for a informal meet up..

I am considering..

Sonic
  • #30,492
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:10am Feb 9, 2012 6:10am
We have big new coming up in 30 min time..

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--bogq7s6YQ...hael16_002.jpg

Sonic
  • #30,493
  • Feb 9, 2012 6:20am Feb 9, 2012 6:20am
Quoting sonicdeejay
I have some request..from sonikers who stays in SG for a informal meet up..

I am considering..

Sonic
Hey Sonic,

A meetup sounds interesting. Count me in for sure. =)
  • #30,494
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:21am Feb 9, 2012 7:21am
Market Comment:

With minutes to go before EUR and USD releases, the US BBs will not be denied the same highs as the asians and europeans managed in last attempts to close longs and open shorts at handsome profits...
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  • #30,495
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:32am Feb 9, 2012 7:32am
This kind of mkt define losers 95% and winner 5%,,,

Trade with plan...

I have a CT short and SL 1.332x.. My risk is 70 pips..nothing more,,nothing less..



Sonic
  • #30,496
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:34am Feb 9, 2012 7:34am
EU:

Entered short (EP= 1.3264).
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  • #30,497
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:35am Feb 9, 2012 7:35am
Quoting sonicdeejay
This kind of mkt define losers 95% and winner 5%,,,

Trade with plan...

I have a CT short and SL 1.332x.. My risk is 70 pips..nothing more,,nothing less..



Sonic

That and strictly trade SonicR, no valid entry ... Well.... at 4:50-5: Pm was valid (5 min chart EU), but meh, cant catch them all....
  • #30,498
  • Feb 9, 2012 7:41am Feb 9, 2012 7:41am
Quoting hunter101
That and strictly trade SonicR, no valid entry ... Well.... at 4:50-5: Pm was valid (5 min chart EU), but meh, cant catch them all....
Oops.. My trade is about 24 hrs old..

Sonic
  • #30,499
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:01am Feb 9, 2012 8:01am
Quoting traderathome
EU:

Entered short (EP= 1.3264).
EU:

Necessity to raise SL. More catastrophic than anything else. There is no way to second guess the market, especially the US BBs, when it comes to whipsawing. They can (and have) managed whips well over 100 pips in the past. And they sometimes let things die down, pending short orders drift down in the cheque and so do (wrong play) pending long orders. When they see enough profit, they push the price back up hitting stops on shorts and triggering longs into the market, creating the liquidity needed for additional shorting by themselves. So, where do you place a SL? That is the million dollar question. Mine has not been, and is still not a hard SL. Not until this is over, as demonstrated by PA dropping convincingly.
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  • #30,500
  • Feb 9, 2012 8:03am Feb 9, 2012 8:03am
Hi TAH,

there have been high volumes on the past 4 candles. High volume on an up candle, high volume on a down candle, high volume on a doji. Large wicks on both sides. Why are'nt the BBs plunging it down yet? They already got to the high prices enjoyed by the asian and london sessions. Same story on GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
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