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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,161
  • Feb 7, 2012 4:41am Feb 7, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Evak
TK price dip back close to the spike base or onto the spike zone & close back above into IBR & above it's opening price, which is within expectation given the 3-i us session yesterday.

Price is now above the week opening gap, filled & now UK opening aunction suggest an open auction type lingering just above the gap.

Any RE below would be back to the spike zone which would be the immediate ref; but a look above would then be a break out of current..structure...

Attachment

composite profile here over 12 weeks with a H4 overlay....
ANy idni that shows weeks like yours?
  • #4,162
  • Feb 7, 2012 4:43am Feb 7, 2012 4:43am
Quoting hutrader
ANy idni that shows weeks like yours?
Here is the indi with instructions on how to merge profiles....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post5310452
  • #4,163
  • Feb 7, 2012 7:36am Feb 7, 2012 7:36am
based on yesterday's 3I day, went long just a moment ago on EU as it re-entered London VA. Target as shown, top of larger value (8 week merge)
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,164
  • Feb 7, 2012 7:44am Feb 7, 2012 7:44am
Quoting tgwhbb
based on yesterday's 3I day, went long just a moment ago on EU as it re-entered London VA. Target as shown, top of larger value (8 week merge)
Me too......
  • #4,165
  • Feb 7, 2012 8:32am Feb 7, 2012 8:32am
Quoting tgwhbb
based on yesterday's 3I day, went long just a moment ago on EU as it re-entered London VA. Target as shown, top of larger value (8 week merge)
Target hit. now waiting to see if we get initiative or responsive action here.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,166
  • Feb 7, 2012 8:35am Feb 7, 2012 8:35am
Based on prev and current month balance area.
Single will negate this as a potential imbalance market.
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  • #4,167
  • Edited 9:02am Feb 7, 2012 8:39am | Edited 9:02am
Pullback entry to add to my previous trade which was held with benifits from 3i day. Price was rotating around the weekly gap prior to dipping furthur back into the spike zone which is my next reference...which we saw some bounce off the same area during TK session. Next contention will be friday's high or just above 3200.

initial risk was 18p with exposure for this trade reduce for a 53p for this asymmetric opportunity.

EDIT:
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pullback or no pullback now....we are already 2 bars clear off the the upper ascending channel..

H4 chart:
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  • #4,168
  • Edited 9:38am Feb 7, 2012 9:27am | Edited 9:38am
Quoting Evak
Pullback entry to add to my previous trade which was held with benifits from 3i day. Price was rotating around the weekly gap prior to dipping furthur back into the spike zone which is my next reference...which we saw some bounce off the same area during TK session. Next contention will be friday's high or just above 3200.

initial risk was 18p with exposure for this trade reduce for a 53p for this asymmetric opportunity.

EDIT:
Attachment

pullback or no pullback now....we are already 2 bars clear off the the upper ascending...
nice call on holding the trade. next upside target should be around 1.33 area, the next ledge above the LUA.

EDIT: maybe premature, EU still below longer term VAH around 1.3220.
Change is the only constant
  • #4,169
  • Feb 7, 2012 9:55am Feb 7, 2012 9:55am
Quoting tgwhbb
nice call on holding the trade. next upside target should be around 1.33 area, the next ledge above the LUA.

EDIT: maybe premature, EU still below longer term VAH around 1.3220.
I am just wondering how Robin determine the point where to ledge just above & below the LUA. Base on my FIB estimate 1.33733 would be the reasonable target or 161% of fib ext - which is same close to yours, for the upper ledge. By estimate is not hard to pin point where she ledge it in her reports visually.....hmmm

Anyway something worth noting just prior to the break out today...We have Netural profile for both TK & UK with a prominent "shakeout" like structure today....
  • #4,170
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:06am Feb 7, 2012 10:06am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
yep, nice call evak. seems like 3I day idea worked nice. i was asleep when london tested the spike base, but i manage to enter long in pit session after i see there are not responsive sellers. i just closed 75% from my trade, price got out of bracket and already moved 250 pips today. this excess area we are, on montly profile must seem fair for some sellers and could get price accepted here and second distribution...don't want to risk much these days
  • #4,171
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:16am Feb 7, 2012 10:16am
Quoting Evak
I am just wondering how Robin determine the point where to ledge just above & below the LUA. Base on my FIB estimate 1.33733 would be the reasonable target or 161% of fib ext - which is same close to yours, for the upper ledge. By estimate is not hard to pin point where she ledge it in her reports visually.....hmmm

Anyway something worth noting just prior to the break out today...We have Netural profile for both TK & UK with a prominent "shakeout" like structure today....
Where to see Robin's reports ?

Only seen one CME presentation, and one chapter from her on a book mentioned earlier here.
Could not find other stuff on her even after google her name.
  • #4,172
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:17am Feb 7, 2012 10:17am
Quoting s7c
yep, nice call evak. seems like 3I day idea worked nice. i was asleep when london tested the spike base, but i manage to enter long in pit session after i see there are not responsive sellers. i just closed 75% from my trade, price got out of bracket and already moved 250 pips today. this excess area we are, on montly profile must seem fair for some sellers and could get price accepted here and second distribution...don't want to risk much these days
Good to hear that u manage to catch some free exposure ride. Something that i did not mention about that 3i day. If u notice the distribution on the top of that US session..it is infact an initial acceptance (balance) back into the gap zone. Which in turn mean any extreme of that distribution would have to be deem unfair, & with the spike zone providing the prominent support, it make it even more interesting...
  • #4,173
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:23am Feb 7, 2012 10:23am
Quoting foxybunny
Where to see Robin's reports ?

Only seen one CME presentation, and one chapter from her on a book mentioned earlier here.
Could not find other stuff on her even after google her name.
Oh i almost forgot to include this link...

http://www.cmegroup.com/education/br...bin-mesch.html
  • #4,174
  • Edited 11:03am Feb 7, 2012 10:23am | Edited 11:03am
Another "Great Call" Evak, thanks for the heads up
Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,175
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:24am Feb 7, 2012 10:24am
Quoting Evak
I am just wondering how Robin determine the point where to ledge just above & below the LUA. Base on my FIB estimate 1.33733 would be the reasonable target or 161% of fib ext - which is same close to yours, for the upper ledge. By estimate is not hard to pin point where she ledge it in her reports visually.....hmmm

Anyway something worth noting just prior to the break out today...We have Netural profile for both TK & UK with a prominent "shakeout" like structure today....
3373? I haven't looked that high...maybe I should have

notice how the 161% FIB from the previous range is about the same place as the ledge on my merge profile. I've place my TP just short of that. Entry was on C period pullback as I had closed my previous long just before NY pit open.

SL at +12p just below the single print. if target not hit during NY today, will close as the single print anomaly will make a nice target for overnight.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,176
  • Feb 7, 2012 10:28am Feb 7, 2012 10:28am
and my ES trades

Lower entry was actually made early yesterday in NY (red) C period pullback after previous swing high tested in sunday overnight. higher entry made on break of A period high today. target as indicated above which is the quarterly VAH. Will need to see some initiation above that area for further up move, and is therefore a nice place to have a LLB again.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,177
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:16am Feb 7, 2012 11:16am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting s7c
hmmm, for example last wednesday london session was 3I-buying without no continuation. yesterday we made a poor low when we tried to find initiative selling below last weeks low and 2 weeks ago POC and after that pit session had a potential short covering rally. we are in intermediate term bracket so when this is gonna brake we will go to the next high volume area.
at this point i just wait with patience to see auction rotation near by reference points
evak and everybody, do you consider my last night statement wrong? what's the difference between the 3I example from the last week and the one from yesterday?
i'm a philosophy fan and like to watch a problem from as many angles feels reasonable and let the time to validate one of them...the time validated the 3I option but i feel it could very well be the short covering rally, am i wrong? of course this till we saw clearly in london the market is not interested to auction lower then spike base...
  • #4,178
  • Edited 10:03pm Feb 7, 2012 11:34am | Edited 10:03pm
Quoting s7c
evak and everybody, do you consider my last night statement wrong? what's the difference between the 3I example from the last week and the one from yesterday?
i'm a philosophy fan and like to watch a problem from as many angles feels reasonable and let the time to validate one of them...the time validated the 3I option but i feel it could very well be the short covering rally, am i wrong? of course this till we saw clearly in london the market is not interested to auction lower then spike base...
hmmm? last wed was actually a responsive buyers, not a initiatives...beside the TPO count is marginal or almost equal in counts Since the POC falls in the middle....perhaps that was why we have sideways prior to NFP....

Is more like a 1R+1I+ (edit; i meant to say Neutral TPO)
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  • #4,179
  • Feb 7, 2012 11:53am Feb 7, 2012 11:53am
Quoting Evak
hmmm? last wed was actually a responsive buyers, not a initiatives...beside the TPO count is marginal or almost equal in counts Since the POC falls in the middle....perhaps that was why we have sideways prior to NFP....

Is more like a 1R+1I+norminal...
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and even if you did classify it as a 3i day, all that tells you is that you have some comfort holding overnight and until the next session's IB as the PROBABILITY that the following session opens in or above value is greater. On the next London session, the IB does not take out the high, which is your clue to get out.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,180
  • Feb 7, 2012 12:28pm Feb 7, 2012 12:28pm
SL update on ES trades just below D period. Break of that period stops one timeframing up on the short term. poor high so far, and poor high for last 3 NY sessions. Could be warning of a test of the breakout soon.

similarly, closed EU trade. top looking poor as well and one timeframing stopped in H period, maybe getting too long at the moment and my trade location was not very good.
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Change is the only constant
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