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  • #3,761
  • Feb 5, 2012 7:43am Feb 5, 2012 7:43am
My trade performance for EURUSD week 05.

Total No. Trades 12
No. Wins 9
Total pips Wins 305.0
No. Losers 3
Total pips Losers -32.0
Avg Trade Time Overall 4H, 32m
Avg Trade Time Wins 2H, 49m
Avg Trade Time Losers 9H, 43m
Avg R per trade 3.18

Let's see if next week will give better resulst as I plan to focus more using S3 next week.

This week was a consolidation week for EURO with swing level 1.3130 being the weekly pivot.

Wish you all a Good Trading week.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,762
  • Feb 5, 2012 7:51am Feb 5, 2012 7:51am
Hi HM,
Thank you for taking time and post those charts and pen your thoughts for those trades. Your charts are quite challenging for my eyes. Next time, please use stronger contrast colours for your add-ins like text, lines, etc. Use text colour yellow or white against black blackground would help my eyes.

In hindsight, a lot can be said about the those trades. But reading your thoughts and I would prefer to comment and make a few suggestions based on what I do. Better to look forward to improve your trading next week and learn from the past.

Too much to write here, so I made my comments in a pdf.

Feel free to ask and clarify anything.

regards
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf hm trades review week05.pdf   519 KB | 1,510 downloads
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,763
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:50am Feb 5, 2012 8:50am
Emmauel thanks for the comments.

I have a few questions. One major one I keep posing...is how t tell if NY session is going to pull back or continue.

AND look at feb 1. When price consolidated...how do I know if price will continue and not just reverse? Because when I think I see a trending day week or month, price reverses and vise versa. And to me the setups look the same.

Also, with regards inside bars and outside bars. Not sure how to trade them. I think you use candlesticks to Identify them. I see can see them but dont know what to do with them.
  • #3,764
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:57am Feb 5, 2012 8:57am
Emmanuel, great PDF and breakdown of explaining this, i have learned some from it myself, keep up the good work.
  • #3,765
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:07pm Feb 5, 2012 3:07pm
So, as the market is closed and I'm tired of watching videos, studying and backtesting, I'll try a little tech analysis of the situation and try to forecast what we may for the day(s) to come.
I know this will make some of you laugh, feel free to break me down to pieces, just please appreciate the effort.

  1. The bigger picture (first picture):
    if we look at daily chart we see PA is on top of SHI channel and it seems stuck under the 1.3233 level, which also corresponds to the 38.2 Fib level of the big move downside dating from 2011.10.27 to 2012.01.16. So the upward move dating back to 2012.01.17 seems to me like a retracement of the previous downmove.
    Furthermore, if we look at TDI, we see the green priceline has rebounded almost on the 68 line, re-entering between volatility bands. According to Malone, this could mean a trend inversion.
  2. The hourly picture (second picture):
    In the hourly chart we see a consolidation simmetrical wedge, its lower line being the 200EMA (SkyBLue in the picture). According to Malone, simmetrical wedges break to the downside more often than to the upside.

My conclusion is we are to expect a breakdown to the downside, maybe preceed by a upward headfake to the 1.318 level.
On ther other way significant break of the 1.3233 level may lead to a new leg upside to the 1.345 level (the 50 Fibb in the first picture).
So this is my plan for the beginning of the week.
Hope you enjoyed!

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_D1.jpg Size: 127 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.jpg Size: 126 KB
  • #3,766
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:33pm Feb 5, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting hale-mary
Emmauel thanks for the comments.

I have a few questions. One major one I keep posing...is how t tell if NY session is going to pull back or continue.

AND look at feb 1. When price consolidated...how do I know if price will continue and not just reverse? Because when I think I see a trending day week or month, price reverses and vise versa. And to me the setups look the same.

Also, with regards inside bars and outside bars. Not sure how to trade them. I think you use candlesticks to Identify them. I see can see them but dont know what to do...

Hi HM,
Good questios as always. Guess what? I learn too while having to answer every question from people. This is one way for me to internalise some of these trading stuff I pick up daily. You keep my fire burning!

To your first question.
Quote “ I will know how the live market behavior only in the future”. This is what my mentor always tell me when I ask this question in my early days as a trader.

But with close study of market behavior over a long time, one can learn to follow the rhythm of the market movements and must be prepared with a sound tested trading plan. Trading is a knowledge and skill based activity. It does require some intelligence and a lots of diligence.

Here is what I do for session analysis using 1 Feb as example. See attached chart.

Some notes on 1 Feb market :
Ø Must identify most recent support and resistance when 1 Feb new day starts. The previous days HIGHs (i.e. 30 Jan and 31 Jan) and previous week 04 HIGHs are very obvious on 1 Feb morning.
Ø On previous day 31 Jan, price made a Lower Low (LL) but no significant Lower High (LH). This is what some call change in the price structure and is sign of trend weakness or trend change. Seen better at zoom out view and at next higher TF for e.g. like H4.
Ø Euro session made a wide range (~177pips) when New York open. This is much more than the average Day Range of between 118pips and 133pips for the last 7 to 100days.
Ø Study the price behavior using M15. See where areas of where price ‘burst’ and follow by ‘rest’. This is Price Behaviour study.
Ø The ‘rest’ or consolidation period happen at the Weekly Pivot 1.3130 which become the week’s swing point.

These above information is enough for trading decision making.
It depends on whether if you are in a trade and have to make trade management decision or if you are looking for a trade setup.
Decision making is not difficult when you have your trading plan written down and you have practice this over and over again. Simply follow your plan.
After you have done 300 trades, you will review your trading performance, trading plan and you will know the quality of your system.

The other question on candle pattern trading I will reply later. Another huge subject but I though it would be better with some live examples this week.

Kind Regards,

Good Trading Everyone!


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 1 feb session analysis.png Size: 61 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,767
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:46pm Feb 5, 2012 6:46pm
Quoting cajun
Emmanuel, great PDF and breakdown of explaining this, i have learned some from it myself, keep up the good work.
Hi cajun,
Thanks for the kind words.
Good feeling when I read that you are retired now back to trading ... fulltime.
I retired 4+ years ago, or some say I fired my boss back then. Now I am my own boss.
Happy to see you in this growing S3 family and looking forward to your posts.

Have great trading week ahead!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,768
  • Feb 5, 2012 11:50pm Feb 5, 2012 11:50pm
Hello everyone!

I'am back from vacation and just wanted to check in
and say Hi.

As the year is getting started it's time for me to get
serious and replenish my funds. These vacations are
expensive you know...

Of all the trading systems that I know, Trading Made Simple
by Eelfranz and Super Simple System by X-Man are the
best. Both of these systems intertwine together but
X-Man has refined the system even more. So of the 2
systems X-Man's is the best for me.

So I'am glad to be back and I'll talk with you soon.

snarlyjack
  • #3,769
  • Feb 6, 2012 12:16am Feb 6, 2012 12:16am
Quoting snarlyjack
Hello everyone!

I'am back from vacation and just wanted to check in
and say Hi.

As the year is getting started it's time for me to get
serious and replenish my funds. These vacations are
expensive you know...

Of all the trading systems that I know, Trading Made Simple
by Eelfranz and Super Simple System by X-Man are the
best. Both of these systems intertwine together but
X-Man has refined the system even more. So of the 2
systems X-Man's is the best for me.

So I'am glad to be back and I'll talk with you soon.

snarlyjack
Glad to have you back buddy.
How was hawaii?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hawaii-07.jpg Size: 445 KB
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #3,770
  • Feb 6, 2012 12:23am Feb 6, 2012 12:23am
Happy to be sticking around this thread for a while, reading and absorbing all the comments and charts.
all set to trade this week .


Happy pipping ,
  • #3,771
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:07am Feb 6, 2012 1:07am
Robuk i hope you came right with selecting the right PC.

A good and easy way to select a good PC if you still having problems is to go to a PC shop and ask them , they will advise you. All you need is something good enough to keep your PC running smoothly even when you have many programs up.

I know some of you guys are trading like this hahaha
Attached Image
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #3,772
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:13am Feb 6, 2012 1:13am
Good morning, the TDI close to oversold area. watching EUR/USD long closely for the long side. definitely not going to short down here. Any thoughts?
  • #3,773
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:13am Feb 6, 2012 1:13am
X-Man,

I'am back in the winter...but the good news is spring is
just around the corner.

We need to make lot's more money! I have places to go
and things to do. It's a big wonderful world out there.

But we are in the right place with the right system.
We just need to light it up...

Thanks once again!

snarlyjack
  • #3,774
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:34am Feb 6, 2012 1:34am
Pullback candle for long is forming.
But I am sceptical that it will go a far way long.
Thoughts are things
  • #3,775
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:46am Feb 6, 2012 1:46am
Be careful news in 15mins
  • #3,776
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:00am Feb 6, 2012 2:00am
Quoting Quezoy
Pullback candle for long is forming.
But I am sceptical that it will go a far way long.
what I see is that the weekend gap has to be filled. Question is whether it will be filled during this London session or later today. Chasing this current long candle is not what I will do. I alwsya want to get a better price when I want to long on this candle close.
But then, price just boune off a support zone and is quite tempting for a quick long trade.
Target levels is today' dailiy pivot 1.3140 and today ADR High 1.3175.
No trade yet for me ...wait!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,777
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:03am Feb 6, 2012 2:03am
Quoting emmanuel7788
what I see is that the weekend gap has to be filled.
Could you elaborate on that?
Thoughts are things
  • #3,778
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:04am Feb 6, 2012 2:04am
Hi All, Im in ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: New Bitmap Image.gif Size: 47 KB
  • #3,779
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:05am Feb 6, 2012 2:05am
Emmanuel:

What are your thoughts if price closes above the PAC next hour? If your thought is that it should close the weekend GAP, doesn't that support an idea of going long with the pullback bar?
"IN CASH WE TRUST"
  • #3,780
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:11am Feb 6, 2012 2:11am
Given the pull back candle I am going to give this one a shot. Long with R:R about 40:40. in at 1.3197. My stop puts me around the lows for the session. not the best of timing on my part but lets see it we stick to a standard pullback before continuing up..
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