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  • #591,721
  • Feb 4, 2012 10:28pm Feb 4, 2012 10:28pm
Quoting chazzle
Gametheory said it before - W/L ratio follows RR , assuming you are using a strategy and not just shooting from the hip.

The point is you do not need a + W/L ratio if the RR in your strategy is measured correctly
But surely a good R/R ratio coupled with a good W/L ratio is better than a good R/R ratio on its own or with a bad W/L ratio. It just makes sense.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #591,722
  • Feb 4, 2012 10:56pm Feb 4, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting gametheory
If one wants to know how useless indicators are..then do this:

Get the charts of AUD/GBP and also GBP/AUD. Apply indicators MAs MACD..s and all those. Now you will notice differences in signals..but the pairs are same! Then go further to change timeframes and all that...then ask yourself..since trading is by concensus is the majority using my indicator and/or my timeframe?? The sooner one begins to answer this question the sooner one comes to term with the reality
i think the question you need to ask yourself is: why am i giving general statements if i dont know how to interpret indicators?
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #591,723
  • Feb 5, 2012 2:05am Feb 5, 2012 2:05am
Let's see if we can reach 1.35 this week
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #591,724
  • Feb 5, 2012 2:42am Feb 5, 2012 2:42am
Quoting KillerWhale
Let's see if we can reach 1.35 this week
That will double my account
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #591,725
  • Feb 5, 2012 2:58am Feb 5, 2012 2:58am
I highly doubt with the current situation with Greece being at a deadline to agree and the market being so volatile that EUR will go up anywhere near 1.35. It has not hung around the 1.32 anywhere near long enough to break through and look like rising. People who are holding long should be very wary.
  • #591,726
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:04am Feb 5, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Ill-b-back
But surely a good R/R ratio coupled with a good W/L ratio is better than a good R/R ratio on its own or with a bad W/L ratio. It just makes sense.
Yes , of course - in an ideal world. I was just illustrating the fact that it's not necessary to have a positive W/L ratio to have an edge. There are traders out there who lose more trades than they win and yet they are profitable - and importantly , they are able to keep their mental equilibrium in the midst of this. It's the thing about cutting losers and running winners.

What's more important is , like I said before - how much you don't lose .
  • #591,727
  • Feb 5, 2012 3:17am Feb 5, 2012 3:17am
Quoting chazzle
Yes , of course - in an ideal world. I was just illustrating the fact that it's not necessary to have a positive W/L ratio to have an edge. There are traders out there who lose more trades than they win and yet they are profitable - and importantly , they are able to keep their mental equilibrium in the midst of this. It's the thing about cutting losers and running winners.

What's more important is , like I said before - how much you don't lose .
Yes, it is a business and a numbers game. I read somewhere that when trading becomes boring, you maybe on your way to riches. Another trader says he feels nothing when he trades. It's methodical and logical.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #591,728
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:14am Feb 5, 2012 4:14am
According to dailfx EU should be bearish coming week.

I don't agree with that.

1 We have a bullish flag on the daily, which is a continuation pattern.
2. Without touching the 1.3244 Fib 28.2% the bullish pattern is just not finished.
3. The flag leads us nicely to the 50% fib @ 1.3435, which makes more sense.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #591,729
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:30am Feb 5, 2012 4:30am
Quoting chazzle
Yes , of course - in an ideal world. I was just illustrating the fact that it's not necessary to have a positive W/L ratio to have an edge. There are traders out there who lose more trades than they win and yet they are profitable - and importantly , they are able to keep their mental equilibrium in the midst of this. It's the thing about cutting losers and running winners.

What's more important is , like I said before - how much you don't lose .
sleep at least 8h during week end
Mohan
  • #591,730
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:46am Feb 5, 2012 4:46am
Quoting mohan76
sleep at least 8h during week end
yeah , sometimes 9 if you are lucky -- no , on this note we should remember trading is a performance related discipline and we are the machine of our own success/failure. Look after the machine.

It's the ultimate business of self - reliance. No staff , no business premises , no stock , no advertising , etc. Very few of the variables in other businesses which are " beyond our control " Everything is down to us , the individual
  • #591,731
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:46am Feb 5, 2012 4:46am
Quoting KillerWhale
According to dailfx EU should be bearish coming week.

I don't agree with that.

1 We have a bullish flag on the daily, which is a continuation pattern.
2. Without touching the 1.3244 Fib 28.2% the bullish pattern is just not finished.
3. The flag leads us nicely to the 50% fib @ 1.3435, which makes more sense.
If it has to be 1.3435, that works fine for me

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #591,732
  • Feb 5, 2012 5:20am Feb 5, 2012 5:20am
Quoting jezek5
Any daily close above 3136 will keep
me only looking to play the long side.
So we kept getting daily closes above that
3130 level.
Looking at a weekly chart its an inside bar,and it
looks as if its setting up for higher prices,i'm just wondering
if it might test that 2900 level,"lower end of shadow bar",
before the up move starts,who knows,time will tell.
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You can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
  • #591,733
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:24am Feb 5, 2012 6:24am
Quoting jezek5
So we kept getting daily closes above that
3130 level.
Looking at a weekly chart its an inside bar,and it
looks as if its setting up for higher prices,i'm just wondering
if it might test that 2900 level,"lower end of shadow bar",
before the up move starts,who knows,time will tell.
Normally I would see that PA after the dust settles on the NFP.
  • #591,734
  • Feb 5, 2012 6:54am Feb 5, 2012 6:54am
Quoting spillini
Hey guys, here is something I would like to share with you all. This is an excellent Pivot point Indy that actually can be used and works great in determining support and res. This is one of the few that can be used on the lower time frames. 1 Hr is the best. Try it!
Nice indicator.
Thanks.
  • #591,735
  • Feb 5, 2012 7:11am Feb 5, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Erebus
If it has to be 1.3435, that works fine for me

Good chart Erebus...
The market is so uncertain that I am afraid we can hit your "C" point much ahead "B" comes up... I mean "C" first and then "B"....
I am staying away from trading on Monday but for me it's 50/50 chance...
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #591,736
  • Feb 5, 2012 7:36am Feb 5, 2012 7:36am
One thing is sure for coming week, if EU gets past 1.3235, its going way higher before the collapse to 1.20 and lower.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #591,737
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:06am Feb 5, 2012 8:06am
Quoting Ill-b-back
Yes, it is a business and a numbers game. I read somewhere that when trading becomes boring, you maybe on your way to riches. Another trader says he feels nothing when he trades. It's methodical and logical.
That is an impossibility. Our brain does not function that way. Never believe such a claim.
  • #591,738
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:11am Feb 5, 2012 8:11am
Quoting attila
That is an impossibility. Our brain does not function that way. Never believe such a claim.

Just trade for pips, not for dollars.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #591,739
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:16am Feb 5, 2012 8:16am
Quoting KillerWhale

Just trade for pips, not for dollars.
Nothing will help. Not even that. It's very simple actually. We operate in an uncertain environment. The way the brain deals with uncertainty is by looking for context, and the way it sends it's findings back to our consciousness is through emotions. The more one ignores their emotions the louder they become. It's just the way it works... anything else is false advertising or more of the same macho talk..
  • #591,740
  • Feb 5, 2012 8:21am Feb 5, 2012 8:21am
Watched yesterday a documentary made in 1986 of great trader Paul Tudor Jones. There's a scene where he talks about SP500 not going down despite all the bad news, day by day. As a contrarian he decided to go long and ride the market until the crash, which he foresaw. I think we could be having the same situation with EUR/USD currently - despite all the gloom and doom it won't break. We are going higher boys from here, shorts will feel the pain and then we crash.
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