EurAnalysis

Highly recommended

I got the following in my email from a very respected currency trader and teacher. He often appears on CNBC. I have read his partner's book. Her name is Kathy Lien. His name is Boris S...

Here is what he sent to me and others.

How To Bounce Back After Getting Hit By a Bus



http://www.bkforexadvisors.com/wp-co...ssberg-icn.jpg



"Everybody having fun yet?" I tweeted the other day. "Between Wen and Junker its like shades of 2008 $EURUSD". This past Thursday the euro managed to spike to within a few pips of 1.3200 only to drop like a stone a few minutes later crashing though 1.3100 on some negative comments regarding the never ending Greek restructuring talks.

For traders caught in the middle of this price action the volatility felt a bit like being hit by a city bus. If you were unfortunate enough to chase both the tops and bottoms of Thursday's move you would have been stopped out twice getting a very nasty little slap from the market.

In real life getting hit by a bus hopefully never happens, but in trading FX it is a regular occurrence which is why you have to take it in stride. Currencies are a news driven market and on any given day, at any given time, anything can happen which is why it is extremely important to keep two things in mind. One, don't lose your cool no matter how bad things get. Two, ask yourself if the loss was preventable or not.

The events on Thursday were clearly unanticipated and therefore not preventable. I was fortunate enough to avoid all the turbulence but just a week prior I wasn't so lucky. First I managed to sell ten times the amount of EUR/JPY that I wanted to because the default buttons on my platform were set up wrong. Then I compounded my errors by trading ahead of the FOMC meeting and got my head handed to me on the anti-dollar move that followed.

Instead of curling up in fetal position as I did in the past, I took a cold, sobering look at my actions and made the necessary changes. First I removed all the currency pairs from my platform with the exception of only those that I always traded. (EUR/JPY was punt and I shouldn't have touched the pair in the first place). Then I made sure that all the default buttons on my platform were set to my proper position size. Lastly I paid much more attention to the calendar and stayed out of the way of known risks. The result? I went from four losing trades in a row to making three winning ones.

FX trading may look like it is a fast and furious game but it is actually a marathon not a sprint. Sometimes there is just nothing you can do about the vagaries and vicissitudes of the market. But if you want to learn how bounce back after being hit by a bus, you must ask yourself - what can I do better next time?


Kno's Comments: This man understands forex and has been around quite awhile. Yet his acknowledged mistakes seem almost like an rookie.
The point of my post is definitely not to knock him. It is to point out how even an experienced trader can trade badly.

In my opinion I think some of us here are better informed than he appears to be. When I say better informed I talk about such things as understanding the behaviour and issues of EUR/USD. The correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. What happened on Thursday was clear to most of us here. We discussed it openly. Money Flow, Bond Yields, Risk On and Risk Off. The behaviour of the US Bonds.

I just do not get the feeling that he is as clear about those matters as most here are.

I just thought to share my thoughts in case anyone wants to discuss it furher.

See everyone on Sunday before the Super Bowl !!!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_426095

Snippet:


Venizelos sees thin line between success and deadlock




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...s_390_2111.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
It’s time for binding commitments, said Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos on Saturday evening after participating in a Eurogroup meeting through teleconference, adding that negotiations with the country's creditors on a new loan contract will have to be completed by Sunday night.

“We are on the razor’s edge, the distance separating a successful completion of the negotiations to a deadlock is very small,” said Venizelos referring to talks with the representatives of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, referred to as the troika.

He added that the government and the troika have agreed on the way that banks will be recapitalized, the course of privatizations and many institutional reforms such as the creation of an effective mechanism that will monitor and eventually suppress the prices that concern the commodities an average household would buy.

What is still on the negotiating table is the labor relations in the private sector and the fiscal measures that need to be taken within 2012.
Venizelos then stressed it is high time all political forces made some binding decisions.

He is set to attend the next Eurogroup meeting in person on Wednesday.

Kno's Silly Comments: He does not appear to be on an Austerity Budget.

if there was a market for good posts this would be a bullish breakout on the monthly!!!!!

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/centr...48910?FIELD9=2

Please ignore commercial content !!!

Snippet:

Recently, the eight central bank balance sheets have spiked back to 33 percent of world stock market capitalization. This has come about not by lender of last resort loans, but rather by QE expansion (buying bonds with printed money) even faster than world stock markets are rising.

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2335/chart4.gif

Credit to the real economy is tightening up around the globe. And though central banks are committed to the hope of propping up economic data with money printing and credit pumping, we expect deleveraging to eventually overwhelm the marginal impact of credit-creation efforts in 2012.
Balance sheets among central banks are becoming ridiculously swollen. It’s not clear how much more time they can buy before economies must start showing improvement. The Fed may be smart to hold off on QE3 for as long as possible. Because once they employ it, if it doesn’t have a tangible impact on the real economy, investors may finally lose their patience.
What to Do …
With the central banks moving decisively farther down their preferred path of low interest rates and easy money, risk assets should go up. And if you’re a currency investor, that means the euro should be stronger versus the dollar as long as the ECB and central banks succeed in warding off the risk of sovereign debt contagion.
Right now they are succeeding; but their plan is extremely vulnerable to disruption. Stay tuned.
Best wishes,
JR

Looks like his weekly budget is the monthly budget for my whole family

FROM WWW.JSMINSET.COM

Jim Sinclair’s Commentary
Employment statistics as taught by the two revered classical economists, Abbott and Costello. Courtesy of CIGA Lew
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 8.3%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: You just said 8.3%.
ABBOTT: 8.3% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 8.3% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 16%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it’s 16% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that’s 8.3%…
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 8.3% or 16%?
ABBOTT: 8.3% are unemployed. 16% are out of work.
COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, you can’t count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss my point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn’t look for work, can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
COSTELLO: To who?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work… Those who are out of work stopped looking.
They gave up and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you’re off the unemployment rolls, that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That’s how you get to 8.3%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don’t want to read about 16% unemployment do ya?
COSTELLO: That would be frightening.
ABBOTT: Absolutely.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
ABBOTT: Correct.
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
ABBOTT: Bingo.
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you’re thinking like an economist.
COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said

I read many different articles during the course of the day. I know most of the people that write these articles or more accurately I know their track record and who they are. This writer has been around for a long time and I have not read his work for at least one year. This morning I woke up fresh and in a reflective and open state of mind looking at my own personal issues.

Since I am familar with most of the matters that John Ing reviews it had a stark reality for me. All of us still retain a basic trust in our governments and the power brokers that run the world. That does not mean that we trust them. Human Nature being what it is however lets us hold on to a form of status quo. American cannot lose it's hold on power and China cannot replace America as the next empire. There is no way that the financial system can melt down.

Guess What ? The above comments are hard to take anymore after reading such a concise, intelligent and informed view of the world situation.

History always repeats itself because of the behaviour of people. It always happens the same way and ends with the debasing of the fiat currencies. Before it was always one empire however now everyone is sitting in the same boat because of globalization.

Read the following and say to yourself that everything will change. Be aware and be prepared so you are not surprised and start thinking for yourself and your family and find ways to benefit from knowing the real truth. Do not be complacent since YES things will CHANGE and short term it will cause major shifts in the world that we all live in together.

Just look at what has happened in the last three years and now look ahead for the next two being knowledgeable and forward thinking and DO NOT TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED...

http://www.financialsense.com/contri...doom-and-gloom

Snippet:

The Financialization of The Global Economy

The financialization of the global economy once a blessing is the darkest shadow due to derivatives. Debt has become synonymous with money. Debt is no longer amoral. Debt on debt has become the solution du jour and derivatives the enabler. Too much debt caused the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Too much debt caused Europe’s problems and too much debt will sink the US economy. Countries around the world are hopelessly in the red with debt rising every day. Derivatives a product of Wall Street’s financial engineering or alchemy has been the enabler that allowed the big investment banks to make big money at the expense of the system, escaping the bounds of physical assets, the real economy, debt and regulatory purview. The size of the derivative market has been allowed to grow and prosper to over $600 trillion and is largely run by the world’s banking giants. Indeed, it is the failure of some of those derivatives like credit default swaps (CDSs) that is at the heart of Europe’s problems, a replay behind the failure of Lehman and “too big to fail” AIG.

The proposed 50 percent Greek haircut looks like a default, is structured like a default and is a default. The problem is that no one wants to pay out the CDS bets. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that hedge funds sold three times or $111 billion of protection on sovereign risk. And America’s big banks in aggregate have “guaranteed” more than $500 billion of debts to Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland or three time their exposure. Déjà vu – again it is the banking system that is overexposed which will lead to insolvencies in the event of a default.

Exchanges and brokers too jumped on the bandwagon, changing the rules to attract trading in more derivatives. And existing rules have been relaxed further to enable trading in dark pools, automated trading with computer algorithms and high frequency trading. The biggest concern, however, remains the counterparty risk credit leverage and cross border risks. The strength and credibility of all contracts is the “weakest” counterparty, not so insignificant given the demise of MF Global and AIG. Drachmas anyone?

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...nder-obama.jpgAnd then there is America, the world’s largest derivative player and biggest debtor. The poor performance of the world’s largest economy in the wake of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgages and credit bubble burst together with Washington’s debt growth, raises disturbing parallels with Japan’s lost decade. America still has a mortgage problem despite two doses of quantitative easing, closing the year with $15.2 trillion of debt and needing almost $3 trillion of the $7.6 trillion dollars of debt that must be rolled over by the G-7 countries this year. That is a lot of [COLOR=blue !important][COLOR=blue !important]Treasury [COLOR=blue !important]bills[/color][/color][/color] to sell. Spending reached a post war high at 25 percent of GDP, while taxes has fallen to 14.5% of GDP. Like Mr. Ponzi, America has been adept at issuing new debt to pay for old debt

Although I am quite disgusted with all politicians, this graphic is misleading and incorrect based on Politifact. I have given link.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...h-debt-almost/





SNIPPET: Obama took office on January 20, 2009, but who "owns" the debt recorded for fiscal year 2009 is unclear. Obama signed off on the budget that year, but it was assembled during Bush’s term, and it does not really bear Obama’s imprint.

When judging Romney’s claim from the Sioux City debate -- how much debt has accumulated so far during Obama’s term -- we believe that there are three plausible date ranges:

-- October 1, 2008 (the start of fiscal 2009) to Dec. 14, 2011 (the day before the Sioux City debate)
-- January 20, 2009 (the day of Obama’s inauguration) to Dec. 14, 2011
-- October 1, 2009 (the start of fiscal 2010, Obama's first full budget year) to Dec. 14, 2011

We are able to calculate the debt figures using the U.S. Department of Treasury’s "Debt to the Penny" calculator. Here are the public debt totals accumulated during the three periods we listed above:

* End of fiscal year 2008, when the accrued debt under the 43 presidents was $5.851 trillion, to Dec. 14, 2011, when the debt was $10.393 trillion. No, not more than the previous 43 presidents combined.

* Obama inauguration, when the accrued debt was $6.307 trillion, to Dec. 14, 2011, when the debt was $10.393 trillion. No, not more than the previous 43 presidents combined.

* End of fiscal year 2009, when the accrued debt was $7.506 trillion, to Dec. 14, 2011, when the debt was $10.393 trillion. No, not more than the previous 43 presidents combined.

Ok, I've spent an hour trying to figure out how to have my charts displayed in local time (+5 GMT) as opposed to broker's time (GMT). Is there a F%$^*ing way of having Meta Trader show the chart times in local time???

Thanks,

Not that I'm aware of. That's one of the many drawbacks with MT4.

http://blackgoldforex.tumblr.com/pos...3-2012-cl-gold

Thanks.

Your Post was most interesting for me to read. Since I have much respect for you and your thoughts I wanted to be very objective in reading the link that you posted and I was.

Here are my conclusions to that article and the issues regarding Obama and Romney and the deficit.

The main point of the political post as it was picking issues with what was the amount of the deficit and who is responsible. The name of the link is even called politifact com truth...

Let's think about the issues for a moment. Johm Ing's article hit the nail on the head. There is nothing to debate there as that is what we are dealing with. Instead of the focus being on the problem itself the debate in this link turns to the most inane part of the problem.

Ron Paul has been talking about a Sound US Dollar and Sound Money Policy for probably 25 years.

In the last few years he has gotten traction with more Americans. That is because everyday things get worse and more Americans are listening and looking for answers to their financial problems. I find it amazing that the debate and the primaries continue to mainly ignore the problems that needs to be fixed.

The PURPOSE of my post concerning John Ing who is a respected Canadian and expert in the field of finance and a long time observer of Gold was to tell people to wake up because the solution short term is about to happen with unpleasant results and NO PERSON in the world can prevent it. We only accept things when they happen. They are about to happen whether 1 week or 1 year however happen they will.

I wonder why Ron Paul does not pay for time like Ross Perot did in the past and explain to the American Public the information they need without interruption. A series of four 30 minute spots will do wonders for the education of Americans.

He does it in part at the debates and in the caucus that he attends during the primaries going on now.

Whether Obama or Romney are President of the USA nothing will CHANGE unless the real problems are addressed and if they are not, CHANGE will occur regardless. That is what I see and that is what John Ing knows and he has the right knowledge and credentials to be practical and objective. We live in dangerous times and we ALL will be part of the NEW HISTORY unfolding each day.

Everyone's opinion is welcome.

We really are past opinions and there is only now time now for actions as events occur out of the control of everyone. Always ask yourself what is the reason that this is happening. Once you know the reason it is easier to understand.

POWER, CONTROL, MONEY AND HISTORY MERELY REPEATING !!!

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_426152


Papademos holds last-ditch talks with party leaders




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/...ensive_390.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
The leaders of the three parties in Greece’s coalition government began last-ditch talks with Prime Minister Lucas Papademos at a bout 3.30 p.m. on Sunday as they try to agree on a package of reforms that would secure further funding from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund.

Earlier, Papademos, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and Labor Minister Giorgos Koutroumanis met with troika representatives. The lenders’ demands for the minimum wage to be lowered and private sector salaries to be cut drastically in a bid to boost Greece’s competitiveness are proving major stumbling blocks to achieving agreement on a new bailout package.

PASOK’s George Papandreou and New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras did not comment on their way into Maximos Mansion, where Papademos has his office.

Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) chief Giorgos Karatzaferis referred to a recent speech given by former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in which he was highly critical of the stance adopted by Germany and its leader, Angela Merkel, in respect to Greece’s problems and the euro crisis.

"There is great impatience and great pressure not only from the three institutions that make up the troika but also from euro zone member states,» said Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos on Saturday after what he called a «very difficult» conference call with euro zone counterparts.
"The moment is very crucial. Everything should be concluded by tomorrow night."

Athens has wrangled without success for weeks with lenders and private bondholders on the bailout package and a debt restructuring plan, putting itself dangerously close to bankruptcy as 14.5 billion euros of debt falls due in mid-March.

In an apparent warning to Greek political leaders opposing key reforms, Venizelos said the patience of European partners and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) footing the bill for Greece's bailout was wearing thin.
Eurozone finance ministers told Greece on Saturday it could not go ahead with an agreed deal to restructure privately held debt until it guaranteed it would implement reforms needed to secure a second financing package from the euro zone and the IMF.
[Kathimerini English Edition & Reuters]

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...02/2012_426153


Most Germans in favor of Greece leaving euro




http://sup.kathimerini.gr/kath/engs/.../eurodeath.jpg http://wwk.kathimerini.gr/kathnews/images/dot_clear.gif
The majority of Germans feel the euro currency bloc would be better off if debt-crippled Greece left it, a poll published in mass-selling newspaper Bild am Sonntag showed on Sunday.

The Emnid poll said 53 percent of Germans surveyed thought Greece should return to its former currency, the drachma, while only 34 percent felt it should keep the euro.

Eurozone ministers had hoped to meet this coming Monday to finalise the second Greek bailout, which must be in place by mid-March to prevent a chaotic default, but the meeting was postponed because of reluctance in Athens to commit to reforms.

Without the austerity measures, which include cutting holiday bonuses and lowering the minimum wage in a country reeling from its fifth year of recession, the ministers say they cannot approve the 130 billion euro rescue plan.

The Emnid poll said 80 percent of Germans surveyed opposes releasing the rescue package unless Greece implements the reforms
[Reuters]

http://www.financialsense.com/node/7...9&utm_term=FSO

Snippet:

GS 2011 Stock Market Performance

http://imagesize.financialsense.com/...achs-crash.JPG

Said Blankfein when questioned about plunge in share price "This just goes to show you how difficult it is to do God's work. I earned every penny."

Mish note: the quotes of course are fictional, the rest of the story unfortunately is not.
Source: Mish's Global Economic Analysis

E/U @ 1.3094 ... 50 + pips Gap Down (Source XE)

1.3084 based on oanda.