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  • #591,681
  • Feb 4, 2012 4:38pm Feb 4, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting Tyoon
Man I am posting a lot on this thread tonight.

Oscillators are simply math calculations based on current and/or past price. This then suggests that it does not matter what TF you use them on. Price is fractal, meaning that no matter what TF you are on price generally behaves the same therefore oscillators will derive the same thing.

As I said, you need to know how and why they are calculated to gain any benefit from them. Some traders use them as confluence but that is just a comfort thing.

Many things in TA is illusionary. As I said many...
The trading edge is to determine the short term direction. Indicators cant determine this. Oscillators are great to help in entries/exits within a direction. Once a proper and correct direction is established..it becomes easier to apply say oscillators to estimate optimal trade management.
  • #591,682
  • Feb 4, 2012 4:42pm Feb 4, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting Tyoon
Commercial and marketing fuckers love fucking with you by misusing indies, TFs and candles. Who said 'ignorance is bliss'? Not in this business.
Preach on brother! Either one is trading with the bankers or one is trading with the dumb money. The dumb money makes trades off of indicators, the smart money uses indicators to confirm a trade they already planned out.

Trade to targets!
Trade like a banker, trade to targets.
  • #591,683
  • Feb 4, 2012 4:56pm Feb 4, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting gametheory
All pairs and their inverses exist! Many see usd/jpy while others use jpy/usd
The brokers I have used don't feed the inverses.

Quoting thevadd
Tools for what ?
Measurement. Different indies measure different things. I am learning to use ADR with my trading plan atm because it gives me information about how much the price moves on average in a given direction in a given time.

Quoting gametheory
The trading edge is to determine the short term direction. Indicators cant determine this. Oscillators are great to help in entries/exits within a direction. Once a proper and correct direction is established..it becomes easier to apply say oscillators to estimate optimal trade management.
A trading edge is anything that gets your W/L above 50:50 coupled with good RR. What matters is what weights the W in ratio to L. Traders can do this in any method they prove to be consistent. You can create a indie trading system that is consistently profitable making a 60:40 W/L. Other traders like me trade price action that can make 80:20 W/L. Others trade fundamentals making something else that weights the W above the L. It really does not matter what you use. All that matters is that your W to L ratio increases with proper RR.
  • #591,684
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:03pm Feb 4, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting gametheory
All pairs and their inverses exist! Many see usd/jpy while others use jpy/usd
Oh dear...
  • #591,685
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:04pm Feb 4, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting Tyoon


A trading edge is anything that gets your W/L above 50:50 coupled with good RR.
Think about that for a second
  • #591,686
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:05pm Feb 4, 2012 5:05pm
Does spread also mean to you the difference between the bid and ask price?

Quoting gametheory
Hey..you are correct. Not all are useless. Pls understand English is not my first LOL.
Oscillators are good to detect deviation from mean for highly correlated spreads..among others. But using those as entry signals or reliance for trading dont simply work.
  • #591,687
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:06pm Feb 4, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting Tyoon

A trading edge is anything that gets your W/L above 50:50 coupled with good RR. What matters is what weights the W in ratio to L. Traders can do this in any method they prove to be consistent. You can create a indie trading system that is consistently profitable making a 60:40 W/L. Other traders like me trade price action that can make 80:20 W/L. Others trade fundamentals making something else that weights the W above the L. It really does not matter what you use. All that matters is that your W to L ratio increases with proper RR.
W/L ratio is a faulty measure of trading edge. The proper metrics is R/R ratio when compared to W/L. A scalper can have 90:10 but in the end produce mediocre results because of poor R/R ratio and commissions. A position trader may still break even with 20:80 W/L but pretty high R/R.
On the trading edge issue, I used to sound same way you do until I realized it truly exists and well defined ! The very few that are beating the majority in the market consistently do posses some edge and protect it. Granted there is no holy grail but there exist optimal strategies.
  • #591,688
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:10pm Feb 4, 2012 5:10pm
Quoting Ultimate6
Does spread also mean to you the difference between the bid and ask price?
Not that. meant correlated assets that usually revert to mean. Example DAX/FTSE ratio or such crosses as EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD...
  • #591,689
  • Edited 5:23pm Feb 4, 2012 5:12pm | Edited 5:23pm
Quoting gametheory
W/L ratio is a faulty measure of trading edge. The proper metrics is R/R ratio when compared to W/L. A scalper can have 90:10 but in the end produce mediocre results because of poor R/R ratio and commissions. A position trader may still break even with 20:80 W/L but pretty high R/R.
On the trading edge issue, I used to sound same way you do until I realized it truly exists and well defined ! The very few that are beating the majority in the market consistently do posses some edge and protect it. Granted there is no holy grail but there exist optimal...
So, if I have a 80:20 W/L and my RR is 1:3 how could I produce mediocre results? 80% of my winning trades are 2x than my 20% losses.

Quoting chazzle
Think about that for a second
In what respect? Please correct me if you think I am wrong.

ADD: I meant get the W above the L in ratio. An edge is +50:-50.
  • #591,690
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:20pm Feb 4, 2012 5:20pm
Quoting Tyoon

In what respect? Please correct me if you think I am wrong.
Gametheory said it before - W/L ratio follows RR , assuming you are using a strategy and not just shooting from the hip.

The point is you do not need a + W/L ratio if the RR in your strategy is measured correctly
  • #591,691
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:23pm Feb 4, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting Tyoon
So, if I have a 80:20 W/L and my RR is 1:3 how could I produce mediocre results? 80% of my winning trades are 2x than my 20% losses.
.
Scalpers hardly get mighty 1:3 R/R. usually the other way round. mathematically 50/50 W/L with 1:1 is BE. The higher the R:R the less important W/L. Position traders do have higher reward on risk than daytraders (factoring in also commission which many ignore..yet as importnat)
  • #591,692
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:27pm Feb 4, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting chazzle
Gametheory said it before - W/L ratio follows RR , assuming you are using a strategy and not just shooting from the hip.

The point is you do not need a + W/L ratio if the RR in your strategy is measured correctly
Please read my post properly. I said W/L with proper RR. Yes you can have a 40:60 W/L with good RR but it's a better edge with say 60:40 W/L with good RR. Well my aim is 80:20 W/L with at least 1:3 RR.

Quoting gametheory
Scalpers hardly get mighty 1:3 R/R. usually the other way round. mathematically 50/50 W/L with 1:1 is BE. The higher the R:R the less important W/L. Position traders do have higher reward on risk than daytraders (factoring in also commission which many ignore..yet as importnat)
I'm glad I am studying scalpers that perform better than that. Commission? Do you mean spread?
  • #591,693
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:32pm Feb 4, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting Tyoon
Please read my post properly
This is exactly what you posted below

"A trading edge is anything that gets your W/L above 50:50 coupled with good RR"

That is the comment I replied to , and I was inferring that it was wrong , because it is.
  • #591,694
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:38pm Feb 4, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting chazzle
This is exactly what you posted below

"A trading edge is anything that gets your W/L above 50:50 coupled with good RR"

That is the comment I replied to , and I was inferring that it was wrong , because it is.
I don't understand (in my slightly drunken state) what is wrong with stating that an edge is a method that produces a WL of +50/-50 with a good RR (at least 3:1).

When I said 'proper RR' I meant RR that results in profits being larger than losses.

Seriously guys, how can a high WL with a proper RR not be an edge?
  • #591,695
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:41pm Feb 4, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Tyoon
Please read my post properly. I said W/L with proper RR. Yes you can have a 40:60 W/L with good RR but it's a better edge with say 60:40 W/L with good RR. Well my aim is 80:20 W/L with at least 1:3 RR.



I'm glad I am studying scalpers that perform better than that. Commission? Do you mean spread?
Yes. spread is commission. They add up. I make few trades per month in FX and earn sometimes >2000 pips. For example been short Eur/Aud since late Dec tgt 12000...now locked in 650pips and abt 912pips on paper. some of these trades are usually 200~300pips risks. Of course I keep working on improving my win ratio but not in the front seat. When i was daytrading..I never earned such kinda of profits and/or peace of mind.
Take note that in some months i lose but on balance..the graph is quite geometrical LOL
  • #591,696
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:41pm Feb 4, 2012 5:41pm
Quoting Tyoon
I don't understand (in my slightly drunken state) what is wrong with stating that an edge is a method that produces a WL of +50/-50 with a good RR (at least 3:1).
ok , before we continue , when you say " WL " do you mean : number of wins against number of losses?
  • #591,697
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:42pm Feb 4, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting gametheory
Yes. spread is commission.
A commission is fixed, a spread is dynamic.

Quoting chazzle
ok , before we continue , when you say " WL " do you mean : number of wins against number of losses?
Yes,

Win:Loss

80% Win: 20% Loss for example.
  • #591,698
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:47pm Feb 4, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting Tyoon
A commission is fixed, a spread is dynamic.
Ok. Lets put this way, the money brokers take for a round of trade LOL That is part of expenses to produce NET gain/loss --whatever name they are called
  • #591,699
  • Feb 4, 2012 5:56pm Feb 4, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting Tyoon

Yes,

Win:Loss

80% Win: 20% Loss for example.
OK then , so all I am saying is that it is possible to have an edge with a win loss ratio which is negative i.e., less than 50:50 -- example :

Reward/Risk = 5/1
Wins/Losses = 3/5
Profit/Loss = 3/1

and that my friend is an edge
  • #591,700
  • Feb 4, 2012 6:00pm Feb 4, 2012 6:00pm
Quoting gametheory
Ok. Lets put this way, the money brokers take for a round of trade LOL That is part of expenses to produce NET gain/loss --whatever name they are called
They are similar but not the same.

Quoting chazzle
OK then , so all I am saying is that it is possible to have an edge with a win loss ratio which is negative i.e., less than 50:50 -- example :

Reward/Risk = 5/1
Wins/Losses = 3/5
Profit/Loss = 3/1

and that my friend is an edge
ah there we go. Yeah I was wrong, you can have a shit WL with good RR but IMO it's better to determine an edge with good WL and good RR.

BTW, is your RR synonymous with PL?
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