EurAnalysis

Don't forget the big picture...

Greeks, EU, Banks playing whack-a-mole

Written by Jamie Coleman
February 3, 2012 at 18:31 GMT


You know that arcade game whack-a-mole? A mole pops out of a hole, you whack him with a mallet and then it pops out another hole.

The present Greek negotiation with both the banks and the EU-IMF is similar. A funding hole opens up in one of the negotiations and they turn to the other negotiation to try and close. And round and round we go, with no winners so far. Frustrating, to say the least.

Perfect !!!!

Economy is stunning and damn interesting. I should have read economics rather than doing an Engg.

So, given the condition of US now, a little hawkish tone from Benny should take USD higher. Really PT, fundies getting more interesting than techies for me now. Anyway, i've just started my way.

Well we are back to where we started this morning and I'm sadly still a little short from the day's start. Made some up but alas, not all of it.

Have a great weekend all!

Anybody interested in documentary film. Here is one good about crisis.
http://www.innerfx.com/inside-job.html

NFP I would categorized it as a non event, or say it diferently priced in. Banks knew the report was going to be good, price on eu shows just that, of course it is easy to say so post factum.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/0...ployment-data/

Snippet:

Given the confusion inherent in these numbers, the proof of whether there’s any real improvement in the employment trend may not come until this summer when peak employment levels are normally reached. In 2009, 2010, and 2011, peak full time employment stalled at about the same level each July. This year and last year the seasonal lows have trended upward. So if the economy really is growing, given the running head start off the lows I would expect full time employment to leap past last year’s highs in May or June. If that does not happen, then we have gained nothing. The initial indications will come in the rate of growth in February and March. Those are numbers to watch. If the growth rate holds up, then the economy is growing, but if those growth rates slow, then we’re probably running in quicksand.

Meanwhile, the government’s own survey data show that 7.4 million fewer people have full time jobs today than was the case 4 years ago. Those 7 million jobs were the fake jobs spawned by the housing and credit bubbles.

Those jobs were vaporized when the bubble economy collapsed. They are NEVER coming back. The “new normal” is just the old normal without the added froth. What we are left with is the bitter reality of fewer people carrying the tax load and more people needing government assistance. We have yet to see any real proof that the trends are improving enough to ameliorate those burdens on the economy.

Kno's Comments:

And Now This No Link From Larry Levin...

Pre-NFP

http://hosting.fyleio.com/17735/public/scamalert.jpg


Well before the open Friday morning we will get the monthly jobs data with annual revisions. The consensus is for an increase of 135,000 jobs with no change in the unemployment rate.

The annual revisions over the last five years have been huge and very negative. The BLS explains the revisions here…"With the release of January 2012 data on February 3, 2012, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey will introduce revisions to nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings data to reflect the annual benchmark adjustment for March 2011 and updated seasonal adjustment factors. Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2010 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2007 are subject to revision."

What is surprising is that this time the BLS is expected to revise the data higher. The BLS website says – “Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey employment estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. The preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision indicates an upward adjustment to March 2011 total nonfarm employment of 192,000 (0.1 percent).”

An UPWARD adjustment is on tap? Oh yeah, it’s an election year!


Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.”

Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters.

I saw what happened by watching the numbers on the US Bond Yields. At first the EUR/USD snapped up because of short covering and then all asset classes went up. The Euro had stopped moving up with the Dow a few weeks ago. PipTrapper is most likely right with regard to the cancellation of the Monday meeting on Greece ... Real or imagined it was out there.

The Yield on the 2 Year was .22% and the 10 Year was 1.82% just before the release at 8:30 AM...

By 10:00 AM the 2 Year Yields stayed near .22% or .23% HOWEVER the Yields on the 10 Years SHOT up 11 Basis Points to 1.93% as the US Bonds sold off and the CASH flowed into other Asset Classes including Gold. Then Gold sold off when the PERCEPTION was there was no need to go into Gold as QE3 now was not needed. The Yen got weaker and YET the US Dollar Index got weaker as well afterwards.

Look at the Chart...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.ht...=c&a=2&w=5&v=s

There was MONEY coming out of Money Market Funds as Stock Brokers and Money Managers jumped on board the US Stock Markets.

As The Markets Opened then incredible amounts of 10 Year US Bonds were sold and the CASH went elsewhere from the Sale of the US Bonds so the US Dollar Index went down even though EUR/USD went down as well for different reasons as was pointed out.

It is a little confusing however if you think about where the Money Flowed once things settled down you can see it did not stay in the Us Dollar even with EUR/USD down as well.

I would welcome other views and comments and questions.

what trading stratergies you are for this trade?

view on euro after nfp data...

I wouldn't say that it's an ascending triangle.
Ascending triangle makes a horizontal height with an ascending lows.
It's a bullish continuation pattern showing strength in buyers as it makes higher lows and a well capped horizontal height. In our case, it's more to a symmetrical triangle. This pattern indicates indecisive in bulls and bears. It may go as a continuation or a reversal pattern depending on the breakouts. Long on a break above 13218, target 134xx. ; Short on a break below 13025, target 1.2xx.
Cheers.

Well put Chiliman. 1 voucher for you

Yes,thats not ascending

its not ascending

hehe..it is dpend on how u put the horizontal line and i put horizontal line there because i consider that are. is superb resistance..

and thats why i put the 2 probabilty BE that will hapen soon

tq

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...ent-statistics

Snippet:

I Can’t Take It Anymore! When Will The Government Quit Putting Out Fraudulent Employment Statistics?


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/w...re-250x207.jpgOn Friday, the entire financial world celebrated when it was announced that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to 8.3 percent. That is the lowest it has been since February 2009, and it came as an unexpected surprise for financial markets that are hungry for some good news. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payrolls jumped by 243,000 during the month of January. You can read the full employment report right here. Based on this news, pundits all over the world were declaring that the U.S. economy is back. Stocks continued to rise on Friday and the Dow is hovering near a 4 year high. So does this mean that our economic problems are over? Of course not. A closer look at the numbers reveals just how fraudulent these employment statistics really are. Between December 2011 and January 2012, the number of Americans "not in the labor force" increased by a whopping 1.2 million. That was the largest increase ever in that category for a single month. That is how the federal government is getting the unemployment rate to go down. The government is simply pretending that huge numbers of unemployed Americans don't want to be part of the labor force anymore. As you will see below, the employment situation in America is not improving. Yet everyone in the mainstream media is dancing around as if the economic crisis has been cancelled. I can't take it anymore! It is beyond ridiculous that so many intelligent people continue to buy in to such fraudulent numbers.

Kno's Comments:

Everything happens for a reason of that you can be sure. The way that I think and have most of my life is to find out the truth for myself and use common sense to see the problem and then find a solution.

When I first got into forex trading during 2003 I had decided 4 years earlier during 1999 to make a career investing in the markets. I was 56 years old at the time and I had excellent knowledge of the markets mainly the stock markets.

I had always made money trading the stock markets however I was not ready to make it a career since those money making situations were only when I came across a good investment opportunity. During 1999, I discovered Jim Sinclair of WWW.JSMINESET.COM and I met Bill Murphy of GATA when he came to Montreal for a Cambridge Investment Conference.

The price of Gold then was below $400.00 US and as the years went on it really amazed me how much information was available that most people did not even know about. That opened my eyes and everytime Jim Sinclair made another correct call about Gold it was exciting to know that at least you knew the truth about what was happening. GATA would also go way beyond the daily news to inform us how the US Government through the Plunge Protection Team was manipulating the price of Gold in order to hide the truth from the public.

From an early age I was always interested in Gold and especially Silver. During 1980 I remember with great interest how Gold shot up to $850 US and Silver to $50 US when the Hunts tried to corner the Silver market. I watched as Silver eventually returned to $5.00 US and Gold to $250 US.

As the years moved forward from 1980 to 1999 I was involved in my business which was management and raising money for young start up companies. That in itself was a excellent opportunity to get life experience in dealing with people and money. We now move forward to the year 1999 and the start of my education on what is really going on in our daily financial world. I started being a person who did not accept things at face value after JFK was killed in 1963. I was 20 at the time and I was doing an audit in Montreal when I heard the news on the radio while working. I went home immediately and watched the events unfold live all weekend with Walter Cronkite of CBS telling the World of the events including seeing Ruby kill Oswald live on national tv in front of the world's eyes.

I became fascinated over the years reading everything about the JFK killing and looking to find out the real truth of what happened. There is a reason that I am going into so much detail here and it is directly related to becoming a winner trading forex.

One last background piece of information before I come to my conclusion and why I posted this link and started this topic. As a person I was able throughout the years including present day learn much about life and myself by the reading of a fascinating book called "Think And Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill.

Throughout the years I must of bought 100 copies and given them away to friends in the hope that they would read it and change their lives.

The KEY POINTS in that book which examined the lives of the most incredible men of our time was as follows;

(1) Have A Mastermind Plan.

In Forex We Need A Trade Plan...

(2) Have the DESIRE to succeed in whatever you do in life.

In Forex you need to have the DESIRE to WIN at trading forex.

(3) Conquer your FEARS !!!

In forex you need to try hard to eliminate your FEARS of LOSS !!!

I can go on however you can see my point and how it has been a help to me over the years as it has helped me as a person not to have fears that affect my behaviour.

In forex trading the main obstacle is yourself. I no longer am an obstacle to myself.

Now finally after almost an hour of putting my thoughts down for myself and everyone who might take the time to read this post I can conclude the purpose of my post here this morning.

When I saw the numbers of 243,000 on Friday which was the NFP (Non Farm Payroll) I was surprised and happy and even amused.

I knew that over the next few days people much smarter than myself and better informed would share information on what happened. We now can see that by reading the information as I have already done.

How can you make money trading if you are like the Billions of other Sheep out there ?

We can call the American Public and Voters SHEEP only in the context of being uninterested and badly informed. Now we understand why the author of this article spoke out.

The whole point of this POST is to HELP you MAKE Money trading Forex.

Use your Common Sense. Try to not fear losing money by first learning how to trade properly using a demo account as I did for many years. I was actually making 20% a month demo trading from September 2003 and it was so tempting to start trading real funds yet I knew in my heart I was not ready.

I made my first REAL TRADE on March 9, 2006 and for the next three months until early June 2006, I NEVER LOST one trade. I hd 5 or 6 clients at the time and my EGO was SKY HIGH...

I stopped trading at Trade Freedom and moved my business to Man Financial during June 2006. The same Man Financial that took over Refco and later changed their name to MF Global. My friend at MF Global one of the top executives there lost his job recently when they went out of business as we all know on October 31, 2011 the day that I moved into my new home and office in Montreal.

Now to a VERY IMPORTANT POINT about EGO and GREED !!!

My FIRST LOSS EVER trading forex was for Dominic whose account I was trading at Man Financial during June 2006.

I will ALWAYS remember that amazing moment for the rest of my life.

I was in a few positions of EUR/USD long at the time and one of my positions had a drawdown of $100 US. I was not comfortable with the trade and I was thinking of closing my position.

I said to myself if you CLOSE the Trade and LOSE $100 US it will be your FIRST LOSS EVER Trading Forex since March 9, 2006.

FINALLY I DID THE RIGHT THING at that time and learned a valuable lesson.

COMMON SENSE BEAT MY EGO !!!

So What ? Lose the $100 US and AVOID Bigger Loss.

Risk Management in it's GLORY.

The $100 US that I lost was the HARDEST LOSS OF MY LIFE TRADING FOREX.

My Common Sense won out over my EGO !!!

I was now on the road to making trading of forex my life and my livelyhood.

Use your Common Sense in everything. Find out what is going on. Have a Trade Plan. Use Technicals for entry and exit and to see where supply and demand are. Support and Resistance.

Use Proper Risk Management. Learn to deal with your fears and your greed and your ego.

The market is always right until it is not.

I sincerely pray that this post will be of use to anyone who reads it.

Good Morning and G-D Bless ALL of you...

Nice to know you sir.


Can anybody please help me get supply demand zone indicator?

Try this one

You can try this one.

Thanks

Would this be good for hte EUR? I mean would it stabilize the area more, or just make it weaker.