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  • #2,641
  • Edited 5:39pm Feb 3, 2012 5:11pm | Edited 5:39pm
Quoting the_wizard

Now tell me ; Why did I offer AUD/USD at 1.0794?

Ok! Here we go

Step 1: So I see that 1.0752 has been tested as resistance multiple times in the daily time frame.

As you have taught in this thread, multiple touches on a level does not mean it is stronger and we should be wary since this is the third test of resistance.

Step 2: The poster used to think the more touches there are on a level, the stronger it is. A trade would most likely be triggered by PA at that level. Yesterday we saw a pinbar formation so most pinbar traders will go short at break of that pinbar. In this case, the pinbar failed and buy-stops will most likely trigger as a result of the stop orders and price moves further north.

This just came to mind. So we see an obvious resistance that has been tested multiple times and a pinbar. The big players will know people will short with stop losses above the bar. They push price up to get in at better price and liquidity from those stop orders. But one thing I haven't learn is when to know if the big player will do that.

Step 3: The poster sold on a decline at previous support after price has moved and players have shown its hand. The two reasons being catching the momentum and quite possibly because the break of the inside bar or break of minor support at 1.3116. The price reversed on them when it revisited the break of support at 1.3090 as a rounded retest.

The long off 1.3090 would've been a classic trade taught here. Sadly I was too greedy and missed the trade by 2 pips.

Step 4: 1.0794 was tested multiple times as resistance around May, then as support during July and that was the last time price has seen this level. This would be the first time back to retest previous support as resistance.

As far as this goes, I'm viewing this as a level that was previously support and now first time resistance so it would be a short signal. As for what's more than a level...that I'm not quite sure!

EDIT**

I was going through my chart and was wondering if what is happening with AUD/USD at the moment is synonymous with GBP/USD earlier this week at the 1.5777 and 1.5886 level.

EDIT#2

Nvm...just saw that the 1.5886 level was actually last time resistance not support. Missed that swing high as I was scrolling.
  • #2,642
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:24pm Feb 3, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting zammo
Dont forget another huge important point is the mass amounts of long breakout traders seeing the break of the 752 level..... they'll be on the backfoot as it hits the 794 and starts dropping....

Hence the market has created an excellent trap zone where longs and shorts are punished.
Good observation and explanation, cheers. I love long time period these rounded retests.

The cleaner the level the tighter the stop, therefore the more lots you can trade for a high probability and good Risk:Reward.

Doesn't get much better than this. Unless your broker misses the price by 0.4 pips like mine did
  • #2,643
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:38pm Feb 3, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting zammo
Tom,

I know this may come as second nature to you but this is just pure simplistic genius. It gives reasoning to the way a market can move and how it tries to trap people. I can't wait for the day I will see these like you do (without looking too hard! lol)

Excellent stuff.

Z
It's as well thought out and pretty a trade as you'll ever see. Stick around this thread. Read and re-read and you'll start seeing this stuff everywhere, just takes a little time and repetition. This Wizard fella really knows what he's doing.
  • #2,644
  • Feb 3, 2012 7:06pm Feb 3, 2012 7:06pm
Quoting surferking
Good observation and explanation, cheers. I love long time period these rounded retests.

The cleaner the level the tighter the stop, therefore the more lots you can trade for a high probability and good Risk:Reward.

Doesn't get much better than this. Unless your broker misses the price by 0.4 pips like mine did
I can understand your frustration by missing a trade by few pips. However, here is a simple solution to this.

Let's say you have identified a level to buy at 1.3000 on EURUSD entering 1 Lot. Instead of placing a buy limit at 1.3000, place one buy limit order at 1.3010 for 0.5 Lots and another buy limit order at 1.2990. If both orders are triggered your net buying price would be 1.3000 for both orders, but by doing this you could avoid missing trade by few pips. Even if one trade is triggered and price move in your direction, then still u are in with half of your actual risk.

I hope this helps.

Thanks,

Alifari
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #2,645
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:55pm Feb 3, 2012 10:55pm
Great stuff on the thread this week, enjoyed that segment on Fx_ProTrader's trades.
  • #2,646
  • Feb 4, 2012 3:47am Feb 4, 2012 3:47am
Well said Tom, mine was the post refereed to in step 2, I'm glad to say thats how i used to think until i started reading this thread and watching the webinars (Thank you).
It's a very simple concept but very hard to implement i think without many hour screen time, which is what i intend to keep doing.
looking forward to tomorrows webinar.

Have a great weekend all.

Tom: are you still trading London open on Sunday night?

Quoting the_wizard
Here are the steps to understanding this.

This one's going to take some work but it will be worth it :-)

Step 1 : Pull up a blank AUD/USD chart and draw a level at 1.0752 and look at it on the D1 time frame.

Now ;

Step 2 : Read this : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post5291693 (post #2247)

Ask yourself the following questions :


- How does the poster view S/R?
- How do they trade it?
- In light of this, what are they probably going to be doing at those 1.0752 highs in the AUD/USD?...
  • #2,647
  • Feb 4, 2012 6:17am Feb 4, 2012 6:17am
my last post on this thread
  • #2,648
  • Feb 4, 2012 6:26am Feb 4, 2012 6:26am
Quoting alifari
I can understand your frustration by missing a trade by few pips. However, here is a simple solution to this.

Let's say you have identified a level to buy at 1.3000 on EURUSD entering 1 Lot. Instead of placing a buy limit at 1.3000, place one buy limit order at 1.3010 for 0.5 Lots and another buy limit order at 1.2990. If both orders are triggered your net buying price would be 1.3000 for both orders, but by doing this you could avoid missing trade by few pips. Even if one trade is triggered and price move in your direction, then still u are...
Thanks, I tend to scale into trades more aggressively once they are 'off side' but I might dabble with adding a few lots closer to the onside where a level is more of a zone. Cheers
  • #2,649
  • Feb 4, 2012 9:10am Feb 4, 2012 9:10am
UsCad still paying out nicely
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  • #2,650
  • Feb 4, 2012 9:21am Feb 4, 2012 9:21am
...more cad
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  • #2,651
  • Feb 4, 2012 9:24am Feb 4, 2012 9:24am
Quoting daft
UsCad still paying out nicely
We hammer the fat finger on a retracement to previous support :-)
  • #2,652
  • Feb 4, 2012 9:42am Feb 4, 2012 9:42am
Quoting tbird
We hammer the fat finger on a retracement to previous support :-)

This message approved by
Attached Image
  • #2,653
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:10pm Feb 5, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting daft
...more cad

Boink
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  • #2,654
  • Feb 5, 2012 4:17pm Feb 5, 2012 4:17pm
This is probably an example of the advantage that bank traders have. The level we were looking at was hit during early Asian inter-bank trading before most retail platforms were open for business. That was just money laying on the table to be taken Nonetheless, it shall be interesting to see what happens when and if it makes it back up there on a retest.
  • #2,655
  • Feb 6, 2012 1:50am Feb 6, 2012 1:50am
USDCAD short @ 0.9966?
  • #2,656
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:23am Feb 6, 2012 2:23am
Quoting bez3000
USDCAD short @ 0.9966?
Seems a decent shout ....where would the stop be here?
  • #2,657
  • Feb 6, 2012 2:34am Feb 6, 2012 2:34am
Quoting bez3000
USDCAD short @ 0.9966?
Rounded retest, Bez? Daym... looks like I've missed it. Is it still valid if it comes again like in the attached screenshot? Last bar testing .9960 again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD H1 RR 2-6-2012 7-28-01 PM.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #2,658
  • Feb 6, 2012 3:12am Feb 6, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Kalbar
Seems a decent shout ....where would the stop be here?
My stop is at 0.9990 but it's gone 10 pips past my entry so don't know if it's ignoring the level or just shaking out weaker hands??
  • #2,659
  • Feb 6, 2012 3:14am Feb 6, 2012 3:14am
Quoting Frxter
Rounded retest, Bez? Daym... looks like I've missed it. Is it still valid if it comes again like in the attached screenshot? Last bar testing .9960 again.
Yes rounded retest but as i said above not sure if it will work or not, we will see!!
  • #2,660
  • Feb 6, 2012 3:38am Feb 6, 2012 3:38am
Quoting bez3000
My stop is at 0.9990 but it's gone 10 pips past my entry so don't know if it's ignoring the level or just shaking out weaker hands??
Me too Bez........dont know if this is a good day for trading as lots of talk about poss Greek default today so levels may not hold as well as usual today? Although we are trading the charts the fundamentals/news seems to be driving the markets at this moment
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