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  • #2,621
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:05am Feb 3, 2012 8:05am
Quoting human2
Hey Benem.
High of oct 27 was 10753. Yesterdays high was 10756.6 but closed at 10702. Giving sfp.
Thanks Human....now i got it as i understand SFP....The fact is that i thought SFP must be more pronounced ....so only BO of 2 pips is a valid one.

Great!!!
Patience is essential
  • #2,622
  • Feb 3, 2012 8:25am Feb 3, 2012 8:25am
AUD/USD has offered some great opportunities over the last day or two.

From left to right ;

1) H1 SFP of BOTH a prior H1 high and a D1 swing high point (27th October, 2011)

2) After the initial breakout of the level marked in green, the market makes a pullback, goes to new highs (see first SFP above) and then comes back and forms an SFP of the first pullback lows. This one offered the level as confirmation so you have some great confluence here.

3) The market comes back to the level for a second time and forms another SFP. (Those that caught the last free webinar will have got the exact steps displayed on screen for what to do in pretty much every level scenario) Once again we have a level play with the SFP.

4) Another SFP on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure just now. This is potentially the lowest probability of the four at the moment when you factor in confluence BUT it is, nonetheless, an SFP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #2,623
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:42am Feb 3, 2012 9:42am
Tom, are you still looking to sell 10794? It would have stretched outside its ATR for today at that. FTA 10754??
  • #2,624
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:45am Feb 3, 2012 9:45am
Quoting the_wizard
AUD/USD has offered some great opportunities over the last day or two.

From left to right ;

1) H1 SFP of BOTH a prior H1 high and a D1 swing high point (27th October, 2011)

2) After the initial breakout of the level marked in green, the market makes a pullback, goes to new highs (see first SFP above) and then comes back and forms an SFP of the first pullback lows. This one offered the level as confirmation so you have some great confluence here.

3) The market comes back to the level for a second time and forms another SFP....

Thanks Tom.....as always clear like water.
Patience is essential
  • #2,625
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:14am Feb 3, 2012 10:14am
Quoting human2
Tom, are you still looking to sell 10794? It would have stretched outside its ATR for today at that. FTA 10754??
Indeed I am!!
  • #2,626
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:16am Feb 3, 2012 10:16am
Quoting the_wizard
AUD/USD has offered some great opportunities over the last day or two.

From left to right ;

1) H1 SFP of BOTH a prior H1 high and a D1 swing high point (27th October, 2011)

2) After the initial breakout of the level marked in green, the market makes a pullback, goes to new highs (see first SFP above) and then comes back and forms an SFP of the first pullback lows. This one offered the level as confirmation so you have some great confluence here.

3) The market comes back to the level for a second time and forms another SFP. (Those that caught the last free webinar will have got the exact steps displayed on screen for what to do in pretty much every level scenario) Once again we have a level play with the SFP.

4) Another SFP on the Non-Farm Payrolls figure just now. This is potentially the lowest probability of the four at the moment when you factor in confluence BUT it is, nonetheless, an SFP.

Just a quick update. Note that the setup #4 has now failed. As I said, it was the LOWEST PROBABILITY of the marked setups because it was the only one without another factor of confluence. You have to be careful with SFP's that you don't try and systematise the process. They are a killer setup but you can't get lazy with 'em. :-)
  • #2,627
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:31am Feb 3, 2012 10:31am
Can anyone help with the stop loss for audusd? My 1H charts only go back to November. I have it placed just above the R3 pivot at 10826. Also what do you think of FTA at 10754?
  • #2,628
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:39am Feb 3, 2012 10:39am
Quoting human2
Tom, are you still looking to sell 10794? It would have stretched outside its ATR for today at that. FTA 10754??
I'm lost, why sell 10794??
  • #2,629
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:49am Feb 3, 2012 10:49am
Quoting bez3000
I'm lost, why sell 10794??
Bez, as mentioned b4 I can only work off the daily chart. It was last support at that level in July last and just b4 that had been resistance. So that combined with absolute faith in what Tom says makes it good for me!
  • #2,630
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:06am Feb 3, 2012 11:06am
Quoting human2
Bez, as mentioned b4 I can only work off the daily chart. It was last support at that level in July last and just b4 that had been resistance. So that combined with absolute faith in what Tom says makes it good for me!
Got it thanks.
  • #2,631
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:23am Feb 3, 2012 11:23am
RR Short on D1:

Entry 7658 Black line
TP 7560 Blue line
SL 7685 Red line

- not sure if this is/was a gd set up or not due to NFP pushing right through the PPZ level, also where wld the entry be on H1 - perhaps look for SFP short?

Thoughts appreciated.
Attached Image
  • #2,632
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:59am Feb 3, 2012 11:59am
Tom, what's the basis for the short entry @ 1.0794 that you tweeted?

The only thing I can see is a previous support from late July.
  • #2,633
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:21pm Feb 3, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting biDc
Tom, what's the basis for the short entry @ 1.0794 that you tweeted?

The only thing I can seeis a previous support from late July.
biDc I asked the same question see the response above.
  • #2,634
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:24pm Feb 3, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting biDc
Tom, what's the basis for the short entry @ 1.0794 that you tweeted?

The only thing I can see is a previous support from late July.
it was support on 25th jul - not sure if you have read this thread....but prior to this it was significant resistance level early july (7 touches) which then became support: (thus as per one of Toms main strategies) place sell order for the next (1st) return back to that resistance level.

my order didnt get filled - and i actually had it marked as 10793 on my charts, yet for some reason (prob from reading this) placed my order in at 1.0794 which i guess never became bid. oh well. have gd weekend.
  • #2,635
  • Edited 4:00pm Feb 3, 2012 3:38pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting biDc
Tom, what's the basis for the short entry @ 1.0794 that you tweeted?

The only thing I can see is a previous support from late July.
Here are the steps to understanding this.

This one's going to take some work but it will be worth it :-)

Step 1 : Pull up a blank AUD/USD chart and draw a level at 1.0752 and look at it on the D1 time frame.

Now ;

Step 2 : Read this : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post5291693 (post #2247)

Ask yourself the following questions :


- How does the poster view S/R?
- How do they trade it?
- In light of this, what are they probably going to be doing at those 1.0752 highs in the AUD/USD?
- What has their result usually been?

(Hint : The answers to all this are in the post)

Here is something that is not answered in the post : Once you know what they will be doing at those highs ; where will they be forced out of the trade?

Have a think about it.

Step 3 : Read this : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...13#post5349113 (post #2581)

Ask yourself the following questions :

- What is the poster doing at those lows in the post? (Hint : the red dashed line is a sell)
- Why are they doing it OR rather, what are they seeing? (Hint ; there's two reasons they get in and both of them are mentioned in the post)
- Where does price turn against them? (You may need to pull up a EUR/USD chart and review it in light of their entry)

Step 4 : Now, go back to the AUD/USD chart and draw in a level at 1.0794. Pay close attention to the Mid May highs and the Mid July low on the D1.

Is this trade just about a LEVEL or is there something else going on here?

Now tell me ; Why did I offer AUD/USD at 1.0794?
  • #2,636
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:09pm Feb 3, 2012 4:09pm
Tom,

I know this may come as second nature to you but this is just pure simplistic genius. It gives reasoning to the way a market can move and how it tries to trap people. I can't wait for the day I will see these like you do (without looking too hard! lol)

Excellent stuff.

Z
  • #2,637
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:17pm Feb 3, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting the_wizard
Now tell me ; Why did I offer AUD/USD at 1.0794?
Because it was the last (and only) swing low creating a support level, that was then broken through, and is now being re-tested for the first time as resistance.

I missed this trade by 0.4 of a pip on my broker!

Although, as you said, that's a pretty good problem to have.
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  • #2,638
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:22pm Feb 3, 2012 4:22pm
Right, I'll have a bash at this... I had to draw it though 'cause my brain hurt

Quoting the_wizard
Now tell me ; Why did I offer AUD/USD at 1.0794?
Resistance last became support back at 1.07942 (25th July) and price didn't get back there in the late Sept high or late Nov high. Nice place to put a short stop up around there...

So everyone's looking to go short ('cause that's what they've been taught that the more touches the more a level is 'respected') around 1.0750 but that level gets busted. SHIT!

Now short traders are crapping themselves, stops get hit or they 'do their arse' as the price makes new highs when they're short. Lots of sellers here looking to get out at or near entry as possible.

Smart money now looking to buy back in at 1.0752 if possible... as in rounded retest for the long next?

If that's not it I'm going to have to read this whole mahoosive thread AGAIN

EDIT: Aha! Just read surferkings reply above. Too many lightbulbs... must lie down...
  • #2,639
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:05pm Feb 3, 2012 5:05pm
Quoting robertislive

So everyone's looking to go short ('cause that's what they've been taught that the more touches the more a level is 'respected') around 1.0750 but that level gets busted. SHIT!

Now short traders are crapping themselves, stops get hit or they 'do their arse' as the price makes new highs when they're short. Lots of sellers here looking to get out at or near entry as possible.

Dont forget another huge important point is the mass amounts of long breakout traders seeing the break of the 752 level..... they'll be on the backfoot as it hits the 794 and starts dropping....

Hence the market has created an excellent trap zone where longs and shorts are punished.
  • #2,640
  • Feb 3, 2012 5:09pm Feb 3, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting zammo
Dont forget another huge important point is the huge amounts of long breakout traders seeing the break of the 752 level..... they'll be on the backfoot as it hits the 794 and starts dropping....

Hence the market has created an excellent trap zone where longs and shorts are punished.
Must... go... lie... down...

That's just plain fiendish/evil

Poor bastards
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