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TASAYC System

  • #1,521
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:09am Feb 3, 2012 10:09am
EURUSD 5min.

Well, my divergence indicator painted a bearish divergence arrow right at the top of the cycle. Signal is probably good to the weekly pivot.

That is what I like to see. Absolutely beautiful.

Carl

P.S. What I would really like to do is write a walk forward analysis program to analyze past cycles and see how long they lasted projected forward in time. Then overlay CCI and see how things really work.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD5m2.jpg Size: 378 KB
  • #1,522
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:39am Feb 3, 2012 11:39am
Quoting crodzilla
Here is my near term cycles analysis for EURUSD.

The cycles analysis software I wrote specifically for FOREX. This is a work in progress, but I must say I have been excited by my research when applied into the framework of CCI divergences (EURUSD 1-Hr).

So, again, Forexcube has given life to my cycles analysis, that I have been working on for years.

I cannot share it yet. It is in no way user friendly. I have to go through several steps to analyse a single timeframe.

The software analyses and ranks cycles based on their fitness for profit.

Example,...
Hi Carl!
Marvellous, your ideas and this solid work!
H1-CCI-Divergence should be an excellent standard in a market sideway movement. No doubt! Maybe you could apply your cycles through more "time cells" (M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, Daily) where the higher time frame cycles should put out the noises when a trend is coming up.
I wish you success & happiness!
FXcube
  • #1,523
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:06pm Feb 3, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Forexcube
50K-Account
Opening Day: 2012 January 31 - 2012 February 03
Equity: 108'175.13$
Profit: + 61'065.63$
(+122% within 4 Days)

All History
See attachment, please.
FXCUBE
You are a pip machine
Even if you close out the losses you still net over 57000

You are a very good teacher Thank you
  • #1,524
  • Feb 3, 2012 12:47pm Feb 3, 2012 12:47pm
Continuing on into this slow afternoon EST, the cycles continue.

As can be seen, the (red) 31-bar cycle continues to perform wonderfully, on this 5-min chart.

I have lots of work to do. More testing and programming required.

Carl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD5m3.jpg Size: 364 KB
  • #1,525
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:06pm Feb 3, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting dryclean
FXCUBE
You are a pip machine
Even if you close out the losses you still net over 57000

You are a very good teacher Thank you

Thank you for your kind words, dryclean!
You're wellcome!
FXcube
  • #1,526
  • Feb 3, 2012 1:12pm Feb 3, 2012 1:12pm
Quoting dryclean
FXCUBE
You are a pip machine
Even if you close out the losses you still net over 57000

You are a very good teacher Thank you
...and now we can make a simple calculation, if I would take a 5K Short around 1.3150 today it could goes 10 times more in the counterpart direction (1.4140) and if I take then one more Short 5K this account should run in the win any more. The rest is LOM (Loss Order Mangement).
FXcube
  • #1,527
  • Feb 3, 2012 2:29pm Feb 3, 2012 2:29pm
End of the day, looks like our 5-min cycle has inverted at the daily pivot.
Price was going along with the cycle, then about half way through the short right at the pivot, price went higher.

Then, the low of that cycle became the high, etc.

Carl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD5m4.jpg Size: 374 KB
  • #1,528
  • Feb 3, 2012 4:00pm Feb 3, 2012 4:00pm
Quoting crodzilla
End of the day, looks like our 5-min cycle has inverted at the daily pivot.
Price was going along with the cycle, then about half way through the short right at the pivot, price went higher.

Then, the low of that cycle became the high, etc.

Carl
Check this strategy, it treats on cycle, it seemed to me to be interesting.
http://www.urbanforex.com/forex-trad...ith-divergence
IH - B221 Return Today: -0.2%
  • #1,529
  • Feb 4, 2012 7:50am Feb 4, 2012 7:50am
Forex Trading Hours

http://www.forexmarkethours.com/
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  • #1,530
  • Edited 3:27pm Feb 4, 2012 8:01am | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting crodzilla
EURUSD 5min.

Well, my divergence indicator painted a bearish divergence arrow right at the top of the cycle. Signal is probably good to the weekly pivot.

That is what I like to see. Absolutely beautiful.

Carl

P.S. What I would really like to do is write a walk forward analysis program to analyze past cycles and see how long they lasted projected forward in time. Then overlay CCI and see how things really work.
See #1524

Great Idea, Carl!
Maybe there has to implement a multidetector how to spot a range-bound market on their earliest stages, so that we can actually have a choice: to trade or to avoid it.
Kindest regards
Fxcube
  • #1,531
  • Edited 8:50am Feb 4, 2012 8:23am | Edited 8:50am
MA-Angle

One of the methods to detect a range-bound market is by looking at the angle of the Moving average.
If, for example, our Moving average (MA) is rising fast - the angle of the MA line on the chart will get steeper and steeper.
Already at this early stage we can make a conclusion: if the angle of the Moving average is rising – the trend is getting stronger. If the angle is dropping – the trend is getting weaker.
If the angle of the moving average is insignificant, close to flat or is flat – we know that the market has entered its sideways mode.

Now lets have a look at 50 SMA (regardless the time frame) and its angle on the chart.
The direction in which moving average is going is not important. the angle at which it rises or falls is what interests us.

First of all, it is a visual guidance – when the Moving average lies horizontally, we know that the trend has paused or non-existent.

But, we don’t stop on just visual evaluation. There is already a tool to help us calculate the numbers/angles for better precision and further confirmation.
This is a custom MT4 indicator: MAAngle.mq4

See further, please:
http://forex-strategies-revealed.com...ding/50maangle

See also #1535, please.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MAAngle.jpg Size: 231 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MAAngle.mq4   6 KB | 524 downloads
  • #1,532
  • Feb 4, 2012 8:27am Feb 4, 2012 8:27am
Follow-up
It calculates the angle of the Moving average (MA) at any moment and displays it as a histogram. When MA goes completely flat – the indicator is yellow, other times it'll show whether MA is rising or falling and how fast it does so.

But that’s not all. You can change indicator settings, especially Angle Threshold to make histogram more (or less) sensitive to angle changes.

http://forex-strategies-revealed.com...ding/50maangle

See #1534, please.
Attached Image
  • #1,533
  • Edited 8:44am Feb 4, 2012 8:32am | Edited 8:44am
Range Bound or Trend?

Maybe the following concept could also help to judge about presence/absence of a trend.

Abstract
I just want to share how to detect Range or Trending Market, but unfortunately this
technique I just try & apply only in EUR/USD at H1 TimeFrame; please feel free to tweak.

Here's The Deal:
At EUR/USD Timeframe H1; try to put this 2 Indicators : ATR(14) & Standard Deviation(14)
Now here's the rules ...

If you find ATR(14) > then the Standar Deviation(14) it means EUR/USD = Ranging/Sideways.
If you find ATR(14) < then the Standar Deviation(14) it means EUR/USD = Trending.

The Logic behinds is; if the SD is smaller then the ATR it means Market in range of the 14 bars because ATR is meassure the range (high to low) of the N bars (in this case 14 bars); BUT if SD is more large then the ATR it means Market break the boundries of High to Low 14 Bars Range
& the result Market is Trending.

see
http://forex-strategies-revealed.com...ding/50maangle
  • #1,534
  • Edited 3:44pm Feb 4, 2012 9:06am | Edited 3:44pm
Trend or Range-Bound?

I personally like simple things like EMA5 & EMA13 to focus of a Trend or a Range. It's simple, fast and easy to scroll it over all time frames and don't need much processor power.

Like every indicator, a moving average indicator is used to help us forecast future prices. By looking at the slope of the moving average, you can better determine the potential direction of market prices.

Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/silky...#ixzz1lS33DoB3

One sweet way to use moving averages is to help you determine the trend.
The simplest way is to just plot a single moving average on the chart. When price action tends to stay above the moving average, it would signal that price is in a general uptrend.
If price action tends to stay below the moving average, then it would indicate that it is in a downtrend.

Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/using...#ixzz1lS3U5NFd

What some traders do - and what we suggest you do as well - is that they plot a couple of moving averages on their charts instead of just one. This gives them a clearer signal of whether the pair is trending up or down depending on the order of the moving averages. Let us explain.
In an uptrend, the "faster" moving average should be above the "slower" moving average and for a downtrend, vice versa.
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/using...#ixzz1lS3skW8z

For example, let's say we have two MAs: the 5-period EMA and the 13-period EMA. On your chart, it would look like in the screen shot below. Below is a daily chart of H1 EURUSD. Throughout the uptrend, the 5 EMA is above the 13 EMA. As you can see, you can use moving averages to help show whether a pair is trending up or down. Combining this with your knowledge on trend lines, this can help you decide whether to go long or short a currency. You can also try putting more than two moving averages on your chart. Just as long as lines are in order (fastest to slowest in an uptrend, slowest to fastest in an downtrend), then you can tell whether the pair is in an uptrend or in a downtrend.

Bollinger Band

You can put in BB 2/20 and/or BB 3/20 if you like. Moreover, this could help often the turning points of the ups and downs in a sideway movement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, M30, 2012 February 04.jpg Size: 248 KB
  • #1,535
  • Edited 10:13am Feb 4, 2012 9:30am | Edited 10:13am
EURUSD, H1, 2012 February 04

Simple Trading with different Entry Points (STEP)

Trading in a Sideway Range could be so easy, when trading with several 1/10 orders. Collateral inputs could be done at different entry points with the benefit of choosing some various exit points as well.
See the example below, please.

Preferred Trades:
Enter Short: A (CCI-Divergence), B (BB20/3 Intersection), C (mBB Intersection)
Enter Long: D (CCI-Divergence), E (mBB Intersection), F (BB20/3 Intersection)

Hands-on:
Short Entry:
Point B > Draw a vertical Line from B/BB (the upper Line of BB(20/3)) to the right and wait when the upward moving price changes down. Take the Entry then (here B).

Long Entry:
Point F > Draw a vertical Line from F/BB (the lower Line of BB(20/3)) dexterwise and take the Entry Long (F) when the downwards moving market price will moving up.

Label:
mBB = middle Line of Bollinger Band (SMA20)
BB20/2 = Bollinger Band with Standard Deviation 2
BB20/3 = Bollinger Band with Standard Deviation 3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD, H1, 2012 February 04.jpg Size: 243 KB
  • #1,536
  • Feb 4, 2012 3:33pm Feb 4, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting Forexcube
Trend or Range-Bound?

I personally like simple things like EMA5 & EMA13 to focus of a Trend or a Range. It's simple, fast and easy to scroll it over all time frames and don't need much processor power.

Bollinger Band
You can put in BB 2/20 and/or BB 3/20 if you like. Moreover, this could help often the turning points of the ups and downs in a sideway movement.
See #1537

Read also more about the subject:
Trading Breakouts & Fakeouts.
http://www.babypips.com/school/trading-breakouts.html
  • #1,537
  • Feb 4, 2012 4:30pm Feb 4, 2012 4:30pm
Preview
AUDCAD, Daily, 2012 February 04
AUDCAD, H4, 2012 February 04

Monthly, Weekly & Daily Divergence.

Short @ 1.0695 (1/10)

PO Short @ 1.075 (1/10) (DR3 1.0738)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD, Daily, 2012 February 04.jpg Size: 154 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCAD, H4, 2012 February 04.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #1,538
  • Feb 4, 2012 6:35pm Feb 4, 2012 6:35pm
Preview
CADJPY, Monthly, 2012 February 05
CADJPY, Weekly, 2012 February 05
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY, Monthly, 2012 February 05.jpg Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY, Weekly, 2012 February 05.jpg Size: 95 KB
  • #1,539
  • Feb 5, 2012 9:32am Feb 5, 2012 9:32am
Quoting crodzilla
If it holds above 5620 (call option level), I'll try to trail all my orders, and let 'em ride.

Carl

Hi Dear how you get option level? please inform me.
  • #1,540
  • Edited 10:06am Feb 5, 2012 9:48am | Edited 10:06am
Ranging or trending conditions can be found in just about any time-frame market whether you're looking at yearly, monthly, daily, or even minute charts.
See #1547, please.
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