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USD/CAD

  • #2,101
  • Feb 1, 2012 12:08am Feb 1, 2012 12:08am
USDCAD 2012 Feb 1 to 29 Trading range

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  • #2,102
  • Feb 1, 2012 11:01pm Feb 1, 2012 11:01pm
My analysis will prove that this pair will go down about 120 pips very soon.
  • #2,103
  • Feb 2, 2012 11:01am Feb 2, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Lexcollect
My analysis will prove that this pair will go down about 120 pips very soon.
Anything is possible, however if you have been trading this pair then you would know that there is major support around .9930. If we get a significant break below the .9930 level, then its very possible to drop into the .97/.96 region.

Care to share your analysis? I am more inclined to think we see a return above parity to somewhere around 1.02ish..

cheers
  • #2,104
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:24am Feb 3, 2012 9:24am
WTF IS GOING ON?!!!! Shouldn´t we be seeing a stronger USD with all this data?!!!!!!!!!!
  • #2,105
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:28am Feb 3, 2012 9:28am
Quoting xivh
WTF IS GOING ON?!!!! Shouldn´t we be seeing a stronger USD with all this data?!!!!!!!!!!
the same situation
why that happened some one told us
  • #2,106
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:37am Feb 3, 2012 9:37am
Quoting naderali
the same situation
why that happened some one told us


I don´t F....NG GET IT!!!! bad jobs report in Canada means weaker CAD, and good jobs report means in US means stronger USD, I thought that would add up instead I´m getting hammered!!
  • #2,107
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:50am Feb 3, 2012 9:50am
Quoting xivh
I don´t F....NG GET IT!!!! bad jobs report in Canada means weaker CAD, and good jobs report means in US means stronger USD, I thought that would add up instead I´m getting hammered!!
i think i had explained this before but maybe not here...

good US data meant that global economy is improving soo less demand for save haven asset and in this case is USD Dollar.. this situation what economist might called it as Risk on effect...

i had tried to ignore this fact and go long for Euro and i just got hammered as well...(keep on doing this for the last 3 years, i mean by ignoring the Risk on effect and i got hammered each time, but i dont know y i never learn the lesson)
  • #2,108
  • Feb 3, 2012 9:56am Feb 3, 2012 9:56am
I knew this was going to happen, still testing my strategy. So far it is working for the past month. I will keep you guys posted )
  • #2,109
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:03am Feb 3, 2012 10:03am
Quoting izzas
i think i had explained this before but maybe not here...

good US data meant that global economy is improving soo less demand for save haven asset and in this case is USD Dollar.. this situation what economist might called it as Risk on effect...

i had tried to ignore this fact and go long for Euro and i just got hammered as well...(keep on doing this for the last 3 years, i mean by ignoring the Risk on effect and i got hammered each time, but i dont know y i never learn the lesson)
so you´re saying we should see a stronger euro as well?
  • #2,110
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:11am Feb 3, 2012 10:11am
Quoting xivh
I don´t F....NG GET IT!!!! bad jobs report in Canada means weaker CAD, and good jobs report means in US means stronger USD, I thought that would add up instead I´m getting hammered!!
you are so right
I dont know why that happend
  • #2,111
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:12am Feb 3, 2012 10:12am
Quoting xivh
so you´re saying we should see a stronger euro as well?
by right that should be the case...but at current juncture EU is still in a range bound trading. it hasn't decide where it want to go yet.. i referring to h4 chart.. so for now sitting at the sideline is the best action...


Some correction.. i was shorting EU when i got hammered.. in the earlier post when i said i was long but basically what i meant was i was shorting and got hammered each time i ignore the risk on effect...

it is worth watching Au and kiwi for now...

Just my two cent
  • #2,112
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:18am Feb 3, 2012 10:18am
Quoting izzas
by right that should be the case...but at current juncture EU is still in a range bound trading. it hasn't decide where it want to go yet.. i referring to h4 chart.. so for now sitting at the sideline is the best action...


Some correction.. i was shorting EU when i got hammered.. in the earlier post when i said i was long but basically what i meant was i was shorting and got hammered each time i ignore the risk on effect...

it is worth watching Au and kiwi for now...

Just my two cent

what concerns me at this moment with usd/cad is that even my technical analysis seemed to point to a weaker cad, plus the numbers, I thought I was made, jaja, but no I´m not happy with what´s happening today.
  • #2,113
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:27am Feb 3, 2012 10:27am
Quoting xivh
what concerns me at this moment with usd/cad is that even my technical analysis seemed to point to a weaker cad, plus the numbers, I thought I was made, jaja, but no I´m not happy with what´s happening today.
dear fellow trader.. my advice is dont trade based on what indicator tell you.. in fact i have learned my lesson , for the past 3 years i have been trading using indicator and frankly speaking, i blown my account .. i just started a opening a new account and trading by not solely based on indicator..what i mean is, it is good to has an indicator but dont trade by solely based on it..

combine it.. concentrate on what is important, for me:
1) trend line analysis should come 1st
2) What is the support and resistance level
3) what is candlestick pattern tells you
4) indicator

Because indicator is not a true reflective of market sentiment, prices are and prices is reflected by item no1-3

just my 2 cent.. hope its help
  • #2,114
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:29am Feb 3, 2012 10:29am
Quoting izzas
dear fellow trader.. my advice is dont trade based on what indicator tell you.. in fact i have learned my lesson , for the past 3 years i have been trading using indicator and frankly speaking, i blown my account .. i just started a opening a new account and trading by not solely based on indicator..what i mean is, it is good to has an indicator but dont trade by solely based on it..

combine it.. concentrate on what is important, for me:
1) trend line analysis should come 1st
2) What is the support and resistance level
3) what is candlestick...


i'm using H4 tf so what i have said here nust be used in H4 because for me it quite accurate.. and sorry if this in not the answer that you're looking for
  • #2,115
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:32am Feb 3, 2012 10:32am
Quoting izzas
i'm using H4 tf so what i have said here nust be used in H4 because for me it quite accurate.. and sorry if this in not the answer that you're looking for
I have to agree with you on this one izzas. Indicators are not the only tools out there. My favorite is just looking at the chart with some friendly trend lines in them )
  • #2,116
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:33am Feb 3, 2012 10:33am
Quoting izzas
i'm using H4 tf so what i have said here nust be used in H4 because for me it quite accurate.. and sorry if this in not the answer that you're looking for

when you mean trendline do you mean highs and lows trendlines?
  • #2,117
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:39am Feb 3, 2012 10:39am
Quoting xivh
when you mean trendline do you mean highs and lows trendlines?
Yes... by drawing trend line you can easily spot, higher lows in Bullish trend and lower high in bearish trend
  • #2,118
  • Feb 3, 2012 10:44am Feb 3, 2012 10:44am
Quoting izzas
Yes... by drawing trend line you can easily spot, higher lows in Bullish trend and lower high in bearish trend

cool, I just started using these this week, I was using MACD OsMA and different moving averages, but today I was trading solely on fundamentals, as I said earlier, and I use H4 candlesticks. According to my trenlines CAD should be starting a reversal I believe, so I felt very confident entering the trade, and I opened my USDCAD buy right when the Canadian unemployment numbers came out.
  • #2,119
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:07am Feb 3, 2012 11:07am
Quoting xivh
cool, I just started using these this week, I was using MACD OsMA and different moving averages, but today I was trading solely on fundamentals, as I said earlier, and I use H4 candlesticks. According to my trenlines CAD should be starting a reversal I believe, so I felt very confident entering the trade, and I opened my USDCAD buy right when the Canadian unemployment numbers came out.
Well this what i see, from the way i see it, it is still in bearish situation...refer to the attachment
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #2,120
  • Feb 3, 2012 11:13am Feb 3, 2012 11:13am
..the reversal will come for sure....just wait one or two more days.... crude oil did react poorly even the s&p spiked up ....so they often make same tops and bottoms...so what will happen on monday/tuesday?

my idea is that crude oil maybe makes one last spike up to maybe 99 or 100 to join the s&p high ...this will giving cad one more push down to maybe 98.9 (61,8% fib).. then after that all comes down together and the dollar rally in usdcad can begin

if there is no more spike up in crude oil cad has no reason to go down longer and will reverse from where it is now..but i would not enter before monday or tuesday ...

just my 2 pips
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